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Looking Ahead Why Good LUCC Modeling is Important for Climate Models: The Challenges for Model Integration

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Title: Looking Ahead Why Good LUCC Modeling is Important for Climate Models: The Challenges for Model Integration


1
Looking AheadWhy Good LUCC Modeling is Important
for Climate Models The Challenges for Model
Integration
  • Carlos A Nobre
  • CPTEC-INPE
  • Cachoeira Paulista, SP

2
When did LUCC Impacts Start?
  • Ruddiman suggests that human activities started
    increasing CO2 8Kybp (start of forest clearing)
    and CH4 5Kybp (rice farming). These events
    prevented an ice age that would have naturally
    occurred as a function of changing orbital
    parameters.

Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
3
Contents
  • Introduction the Earth as a Complex System
  • Spatial and Temporal Scales
  • Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions
  • Carbon Modeling in Amazonia

4
The Earth as a Complex System
5
Earth System Science
  • One planet - we dont see the compartments
  • None of the compartments (or disciplines)
    operates independently
  • None of the compartments (or disciplines) are
    more important than the others
  • The Earth has 4.6B years of integration under its
    belt

http//sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-image
s.html
We need disciplined interdisciplinary
science Organize around science - build the
structure to support it
6
Earth System Modelling A Hierarchical Approach
7
Earth System Modeling
From the simplest models to explore ideas to the
most detailed model to check against
observational data. Develop data assimilation
and inversion schemes. Adapt models to help in
the stewardship of the Earth System.
8
Modeling A Hierarichal Approach
  • Continue to develop classic models of the Earth
    System, but at the same time use tools of complex
    system science which recognize that the
    interactions between parts of a system lead to
    the emergence of structures and to
    self-organization.
  • Open modeling framework in which different
    modules can be adapted, and different concepts
    can be tested,
  • .
  • The development of future models should involve
    stakeholders, so that they understand concepts,
    uncertainties, etc.

9
(No Transcript)
10
DYNAMIC VEGATION Yet another step forward in
model development
Typical GCM approach ignore effects of
climate variations on vegetation
Early attempts at accounting for
vegetation/ climate consistency
Fully integrated dynamic vegetation model
Figure from Foley et al., Coupling
dynamic models of climate and vegetation,
Global Change Biology, 4, 561-579, 1998.
11
3-part diagram
GCM ATMOSPHERE climate chemistry
Ent Dynamic Global Terrestrial Ecosystem
Model Lead N. Kiang, GISS
sensible/latent heat momentum
P, VP, CO2 Tair, Precip SW ?, PAR? beam/diffuse
SW?, CO2 fire aerosols VOCs
ENT DGTEM
seasonal-decadal
LANDSCAPE VEG STRUCTURE patch (age distrib)
cohort (density) individual plant
functional type (pft) plant mass
CNfoliage, stem, root CN
labile storage plant geometry
LAI, SLA profile, dbh, height, root
depth crown size (axes)
hourly
DISTURBANCE fire(above-ground biomass,
dryness(soil moisture)) combustion
products litter, new patches
CANOPY RADIATIVE TRANSFER LAI clumping
profiles leaf albedo PAR profiles,
sunlit/shaded net SW to soil patch albedo
(canopy, soil, snow)
update structure
ALLOMETRY/ GROWTH/REPROD update plant
geometry establish new seedlings density
dependence mortality
net CO2 uptake layer
PAR?layer sunlit/shaded
CANOPY BIOPHYSICS Ci Chl/N profile photosynthesis
Acan(leaf Chl, Ci, PAR, LAI,Tcan) conductance gc
an(moisture,Tcan,height,VPD, Acan)
SOIL BGC labile C, labile N available N slow C,
slow N soil respiration (substrate, moisture,
Tsoil)
ALLOCATION/ PHENOLOGY budburst(Tgdd), cold/dry
decid update individ CN pools plant
respiration N uptake, N fixation
N
litter
landscape and veg structure
Tsoil, Tcanopy snow albedo soil albedo, soil
moisture
conductance net SW
LAND SURFACE ENERGY WATER BALANCE canopy energy
balance soil energy balance soil moisture snow
cover, snow albedo soil albedo
u,v, P, VP Tair , LW? Precip
12
2000
2010
13
Introducing the Human Dimension
14
Introducing Human Dynamics
  • The Earth System will have to be viewed as a
    single system in which interactions between
    natural and social systems play a crucial role.
  • The research communities involved will have to
    find a common language

15
COUPLED HUMAN -
ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM
LAND USE
DECISION MAKING
UTILIZATION
16
Modeling the human element
Geist Lambin, 2002
17
Merging our Physical Models with Economic,
Policy and Decision Support Models the Next
Frontier
18
Meta-Analysis of Deforestation
Combinations of multiple factors according to
time-scale
  • Short time scales individual social responses
    to new opportunities constraints created by
    markets policies.
  • Long time scales demographic factors population
    increase decrease, breakdown of extended
    families, migration.
  • Extreme biophysical events trigger further change.

Geist and Lambin (2001)
19
300 Years of Land Use Change
Global Land Cover Types 1700 to 1992
20
The Spread of Agriculture
Global Crop Cover Change1700 to 1992
Fraction of Grid Cell in Croplands
21
Estimated changes in land use from 1700 to 1995
Goldewijk K and Battjes J.J., 1997
22
Night-time data from the Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan
System (OLS)
Ecological footprint of cities
Point Area of urban-industrial infrastructure
remains small relative to other land-use/cover
changes, but its footprint has significant
land implications.
Elvidge et al., 1997
23
Ecological Scaling
1 cm
1000 km
1 km
10 m
1 m
Scale the spatial and temporal frequency of a
process or structure. A scale domain is bounded
by the grain size of processes detected and the
extent or span of processes attended.
10000 yrs
4
1000 yrs
3
century
2
1
decade
Log Time (years)
year
0
month
-1
-2
day
-3
hour
-4
4
2
0
- 2
- 4
- 6
Log Space (km)
Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
24
Vegetative Scales
Forest is patterned across a range of
scales. Larger slower structures usually
constrain the behavior of faster smaller
scales. Occasionally change at a small and fast
scale spreads up to a larger scale.
1 cm
1000 km
1 km
10 km
100 m
1 m
10 000 yrs
4
region
1 000 yrs
3
forest
century
2
stand
patch
LOG TIME - years
1
decade
crown
year
0
needle/leaf
month
-1
-2
day
-3
hour
-4
4
2
0
- 2
- 4
- 6
LOG SPACE- km
Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
25
Atmospheric Processes
1 cm
1000 km
1 km
10 km
100 m
1 m
Atmospheric processes occur faster than
vegetative processes occurring at the same
spatial scale.
4
region
1 000 yrs
3
forest
century
2
climate change
stand
patch
1
decade
LOG TIME - years
El Niño
crown
year
0
needle
month
-1
long waves
-2
Vegetative Structures
day
fronts
Atmospheric Processes
-3
thunderstorms
hour
-4
4
2
0
- 2
- 4
- 6
LOG SPACE- km
Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
26
Disturbance Regimes
  • Fire enhancement
  • Fire suppression
  • Increased erosion
  • Decreased erosion
  • Increased deforestation
  • Afforestation
  • Increased biotic disturbance
  • Change in consequences of disturbance
  • Change in susceptibility to physical forces

Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
27
Mesoscale Processes
1 cm
1000 km
1 km
10 km
100 m
1 m
10 000 yrs
4
Mesoscale disturbance processes such as fire and
spruce budworm outbreaks link the atmospheric
processes and vegetative structures.
1 000 yrs
3
Disease/pest Outbreaks
century
2
1
decade
LOG TIME - years
year
0
Fire
month
-1
-2
day
-3
hour
-4
4
2
0
- 2
- 4
- 6
LOG SPACE- km
Atmospheric Processes
Mesoscale Processes
Vegetative Structures
Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
28
Anthropogenic Processes
1 cm
1000 km
1 km
10 km
100 m
1 m
10 000 yrs
4
Anthropogenic disturbance processes such as
agriculture, logging, grazing and urbanization
can impact vegetation more broadly and quickly
than natural causes.
1 000 yrs
3
century
2
Land use changes
1
decade
LOG TIME - years
year
0
month
-1
-2
day
-3
hour
-4
4
2
0
- 2
- 4
- 6
Anthropogenic Processes
LOG SPACE- km
Atmospheric Processes
Mesoscale Processes
Vegetative Structures
Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
29
Hydrological processes
Hydro-meteorological processes
Atmospheric Processes
Source Blöschl e Sivapalan (1995).
30
Aggregation and scaling in hydrological modelling
Hydrological processes are strongly non-linear on
small scales, and how these processes aggregate
on a larger scale is not completely understood
Source Wood (1995)
31
Understanding how the hydrological signal
propagates at different scales in the forest
Asu catchment Central Amazonia
Section Perimeter (km) Area (km2)
1 5.2 1.2
2 11.8 6.5
3 17.7 13.1
32
Scales in hydrologic modelling Aggregate or
effective parameters
Basin
Sub-grid
Linear ? radiation and evaporation
Linear
Non-linear
(Arain et al., 1996 Arain et al., 1997)
33
Scales in hydrologic modelling Probability-Distri
buted principle
(Beven and Freer, 2001)
(Wooldrige et al., 2001)
34
Energy Balance Over Land
Absorbed energy raises the surface temperature
heat radiated from the surface increases
The sun is the ultimate source of all energy
If there is moisture available, most of the
remaining energy will go towards evaporating it.
Ta
Water has a high heat, capacity, so retards
warming. Dry soil will warm quickly, increasing
sensible heat flux.
Energy which reaches the ground and is not
reflected is absorbed
sTa4
  • Shortwave Longwave
    Evapotranspiration Sensible
  • Heat

sTs4
Ts
35
Only about 45 of the Suns energy is visible
Plants mostly make use of visible light for
photo-synthesis
36
The rest is in infrared (43) and UV (12)
The ozone layer blocks most of the UV from
reaching the surface
37
Deforestation
Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
38
Some facts about deforestation
  • More than 8 million km2 of forest (all latitudes)
    have been cleared globally, about half of it in
    this century alone.
  • Half of the world's population live in less
    developed countries in the tropics (between 23N
    and 23S), where deforestation is occurring the
    fastest.
  • Tropical forests are being lost at a rate of 2-3
    per year.
  • 10 of global terrestrial net primary production
    (vegetative growth) occurs in the Amazon Basin
    alone.

Slide Courtesy of P House and P. Dirmeyer
39
Conceptual models of regional deforestation in
Amazonia
An alternative pattern could represent first an
increase of precipitation as a result of partial
deforestation, maybe due to the mesoescale
circulations, ... followed by a catastrophic
decrease passing some threshold value.
Increase of the deforested areas Linear decrease
of P
Relatively small deforestation could cause a
major decrease of precipitation, with a
progressing deforestation not having further
significant impact
Avissar et al., 2002
40
AMAZON SCENARIOS PROJECT
CPTEC-INPE GLOBAL MODEL
LUCC Model
RESULTS
41
Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA
Source Soares-Filho (2004)
45
28
YEAR
Control
2025
2050
Distribution of SSiB vegetation types over South
America on a 1 by 1 long grid.
Vegetation classification Dorman and Sellers
(1989)
67
100
Total
2100
42
Warmer surface temperature in all deforestation
cases !
Experiment Temp. Dif. (C)
2025 0.8
2050 1.6
2100 2.1
Total 2.5
Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA
43
The relative warming of the deforested land
surface is consistent with the reduction in
evapotranspiration and the lower surface
roughness length.
Experiment Evap. Dif.
2025 -4.4
2050 -7.8
2100 -11.0
Total -16.1
Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA
44
Experiment Annual Dif. ()
2025 -2.2
2050 -8.0
2100 -13.2
Total -14.5
Decrease of precipitation with a progressing
deforestation !
Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA
45
Increase of the deforested areas Linear
decrease of P
Sampaio et al. (2006)
Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA
46
Why the interest in carbon? One obvious reason
to address questions of global climate change.
  • Weather station records and ship-based
    observations indicate that global mean surface
    air temperature warmed between about 0.4 and 0.8
    o C (0.7 and 1.5 o F) during the 20th century.

47
Why the interest in modeling the lands role in
the carbon cycle? Land has a definite impact --
note how land seasonality affects the atmospheric
CO2 content.
48
Estimates of flux changes with time
Note the incredible balance between high carbon
flux rates. The only imbalance is in the fossil
fuel emissions.
Terrestrial sink mechanisms
49
Amazonia source or sink of carbon?
50
Amazonia source or sink of carbon?
51
Deforestation...
52
Fire...
53
Fire followed by decomposition of biomass not
burned...
54
Monitoring the Brazilian Amazon Forest
Evolution of the mean rate of gross deforestation
in Amazon (km2 / year).
Accumulated Deforestation in Rondonia
Courtesy INPE/OBT
INPE, 2001
Relative to the area of remaining forest.
Data from 1993 and 1994 refer to an estimate of
the mean rate of gross deforestation for the
period 1992-1994. The mean rate of gross
deforestation for 2000 was based on the analysis
of 49 TM-Landsat images from that year.
55
VEGETATION MAP (RADAM 15000000) DEFORESTATION
(PRODES, 1997)
Courtesy R. Alvalá, E. Kalil, INPE
56
Carbon Balance in Amazonia Deforestation and
Regrowth
Land Abandonement Regrowth of abandoned land ?
30 of deforestation area accumulated carbon at
rates proportional initial biomass 1.5 MgC ha-1
yr-1 for Biomass lt 100 MgC ha-1 to 5.5 Mg
Cha-1 yr-1 for Biomass gt 190 MgC ha-1
Range of Biomass Estimates Low 145 MgC ha-1
High 232 MgC ha-1 Intermidiate 210 MgC ha-1
Of the total Biomass Deforested
20 Burned 70 Left as Slash 8 Removed for
Products 2 Elemental Carbon
Rates of Decay
Wood Products ? 10 yr Elemental Carbon ? 1000
yr Left as Slash ? 10 yr (or 2.5 yr)
Figure 4 Annual rate of deforestation and mean
annual sources and sinks of carbon in Brazilian
Amazonia. Shaded area is 1 s.d. from the mean
annual flux of carbon determined for the eight
cases described in the text.
(200 ? 100) MTON C/YEAR (AVERAGE
1988-1998)
Houghton, Skole, Nobre et al. , vol 403, January
2000
57
Figure 1 Land cover in Brazilian Amazonia as of
1986, based on a classification of Landsat MSS
data. The classification identifies seven classes
of land cover forest, deforested land, regrowing
forest, water, clouds, cloud shadow and cerrado
(savanna). Here data for cloud and cloud shadow
are grouped together.
Houghton, Skole, Nobre et al. , vol 403, January
2000
58
Figure 3 The spatial distribution of biomass in
Brazilian Amazonia. a, RADAMBRASIL wood volumes
converted to biomass with equations from refs 18,
19 (low estimate). b, RADAMBRASIL volumes
converted to biomass (from ref. 21) (high
estimate). c, Biomass interpolated from 56 sites
(medium estimate).
Houghton, Skole, Nobre et al. , vol 403, January
2000
59
LUCC Summary
  • Humans have altered the vegetation landscape on
    a large scale for agricultural (crop cultivation,
    grazing of livestock) and other economic purposes
    (fuel/firewood, urbanization, reclamation,
    etc.).
  • Land degradation occurs in humid climates
    (deforestation) and arid climates
    (desertification).
  • Changes in water resource use can have
    unintended consequences on vegetation.
  • Modeling studies suggest large-scale land use
    change can have an affect on local, regional
    climate and even on global climate.
  • How does climate changes affect land use and
    land cover change? This is one of the great
    challenges for Earth System Science

60
Putting Human Dimensions into Earth System Models
Human welfare and health
Ecosystem function health
GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the
BiOsphere) is the first global model to include
the dynamic feedbacks among human technology,
economic production and welfare, and ecosystem
goods and services within the dynamic earth
system. GUMBO includes modules to simulate
carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the
Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and
Biosphere of the global system. Social and
economic dynamics are simulated within the
Anthroposphere.
61
Valorizing Ecosystems Services
  • The value of a system refers to intrapsychic
    constellations of norms and precepts that guide
    human judgment and action, which means that the
    moral framework defining how people assign rights
    to things and activities is a cultural and
    historical perception (Constanza et al, 2002).
  • Thus the economic paths where money is
    transferred from a community who is benefit to
    someone who is maintaining environment, is not an
    easy task.
  • In a sense, mechanisms have to be created to
    compensate a primary user of a certain ecosystem
    to keep it preserved in favor of regional
    sustainability.
  • The benefits of ecosystem valuation are related
    to aspects as biodiversity, climate, food and
    water protection, recreational opportunity.
  • For instance, a local community surviving from
    ecosystem goods in Amazonia would have to receive
    better benefits, for a life time, to maintain and
    preserve the forest, than timber or replace
    natural systems by agriculture or pasture.
  • In Costa Rica, the Government experiences a
    successful system where the land owner is paid to
    keep forests preserved, where water quality and
    scenic attributes are sought.

62
?T 1 C
Situação Atual
?T 3 C
?T 5 C
Pinto, H. S., E. D. Assad, J. Zullo Jr e O.
Brunini, 2001. O Aquecimento Global e a
Agricultura. ComCiência
63
A2 High GHG Emissions Scenario
Projected mean temperature and precipitation
anomalies for 2070 - 2099 for the mean of the 6
models
Temperature Anomalies (deg C)
Precipitation Anomalies (mm/day)
Calculated biomes in equilibrium with projected
climates for each of the 6 GCMs used, based on
average anomalies for the period 2070-2090 AVG
is the calculated biome using the mean of the 6
GCM anomalies (ECHAM, CCCMA, CCSR, GFDL, CSIRO,
HADCM3).
64
Science for curiosity or for policy makers?
  • Has the current research focus distracted the
    scientific community from addressing more policy
    relevant questions such as adaptation strategies
    and limits, reduction of vulnerability, ecosystem
    management, ecosystem services, decarbonization
    of our energy system, etc.?
  • How should decisions be made in a world of
    scientific uncertainties?
  • How can global environmental change research be
    more relevant to the development needs of the
    developing nations?
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