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Topic 2 The Attributes of Populations

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Title: Topic 2 The Attributes of Populations


1
Topic 2 The Attributes of Populations
  • A Population Growth
  • B Fertility
  • C Mortality
  • D Population Profiles
  • E Population Capacity

2
Conditions of Usage
  • For personal and classroom use only
  • Excludes any other form of communication such as
    conference presentations, published reports and
    papers.
  • No modification and redistribution permitted
  • Cannot be published, in whole or in part, in any
    form (printed or electronic) and on any media
    without consent.
  • Citation
  • Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics
    Geography, Hofstra University.

3
A. Fertility
  • 1. Fertility, Birth and Death Control
  • 2. Population Growth Rates
  • 3. Doubling Time

4
1. Fertility, Birth and Death Control
  • Definition
  • Process during which the population of an area
    increases.
  • Related to a complex economic, cultural and
    social environment.
  • Two factors
  • (1) Number of births exceeds the number of
    deaths.
  • (2) Migration flow is positive.
  • Over 70 of the United States annual population
    growth results from immigration.
  • Expressed in percentages.
  • Birth rate of 20 per 1000 people.
  • Death rate of 10 per 1000 people.
  • Growth rate of 10 people per year per 1000
    population, or 1.

Births minus Deaths
Positive migratory balance
Population Growth
Society
Economy
Culture
5
Top Ten Contributors to World Population Growth,
1995-2005
6
1. Fertility, Birth and Death Control
  • Achieved death control more effectively then
    birth control
  • Major factor behind the growth of the global
    population in recent decades.
  • Modern medicine
  • Vastly decreased the number of deaths from many
    diseases (malaria, yellow fever, etc.).
  • Famine
  • Reduced through better agriculture, distribution,
    storage and by international aid mechanisms.
  • Infant mortality
  • Decreased in most areas.
  • Improvement in the availability and quality of
    the water supply
  • Improved hygiene conditions.
  • Decreased deaths caused by water borne diseases.

7
1. Fertility, Birth and Death Control
  • Birth control has been more difficult to achieve
  • Reproduction cannot be effectively planned by
    the state.
  • Religious beliefs.
  • Cultural traditions.
  • The importance of children as help, labor and
    security.
  • The role of women is very limited in many
    societies.

8
2. Population Growth Rates
High
2.0
Average
1.0
Low
0.0
ZPG
9
3 Scenarios of Global Population Growth, 2005-2050
10
Population Growth Rate, 2000
11
Population Change between 2000 and 2050 ()
12
Population of Russia, Japan Italy, 1950-2050 (in
millions)
13
3. Doubling Time
  • Definition
  • Length of time necessary for an area (usually a
    nation) to double its population.
  • The mathematics of population work very much like
    compounding interest.
  • Percentage of increase is applied to an
    ever-increasing base.
  • Simple equation 72 / Growth rate.
  • Implications
  • The faster the growth rate the lower the doubling
    time
  • 1 growth rate 72 years.
  • 4 growth rate 19 years.
  • Infinite doubling time no growth or negative
    growth.

14
Doubling Time as of 2000
15
B. Fertility
  • 1. Crude Birth Rate
  • 2. Total Fertility Rate
  • 3. Factors Influencing Fertility

16
1. Crude Birth Rate
  • Crude Birth Rate (CBR) or General Fertility Rate
    (GFR)
  • Number of live births per year per 1000
    population.
  • Both males and females are considered.
  • All the population is considered, even the
    non-reproductive segment (children, elderly).
  • Numbers like 10, 20, 40, etc.

25 males of any age
25 females of any age
10 children born that year
1,000
30
CBR 30
17
2. Total Fertility Rate
  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
  • Number of live births per female of reproductive
    age (15-49).
  • Numbers such as 2.2, 4.5.
  • Indicates population change over a long period of
    time.
  • Instructive about societal norms in any given
    culture.
  • A TFR of 2.1 is considered as being the
    replacement birth rate.
  • Lower than 2.1 yields population decrease while
    rates greater than 2.1 yields population
    increase.
  • Improvements in medical conditions lower the
    replacement rate (below 2.06 in many countries).

25 females between 15-49
10 children born that year
1,000
60
TFR 2.04 (60/1,000) (49-15)
18
Total Fertility Rate, 1995-2005
Replacement rate (2.1)
19
TFR among Developed Countries, 2005
20
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
Biological Determinants
Social Determinants
Fertility
Economic Determinants
21
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
  • Biological determinants
  • Age
  • Reproductive age of women ranges from 15-44 or
    from 15-49.
  • Men 13-??
  • Health and nutrition
  • Poor health and/or nutrition can reduce
    fertility.
  • Linked with underweight children.
  • Linked with child mortality rates.
  • Environment
  • Represents an undocumented impacts on fertility.
  • Stressed populations tend to have less males than
    females.
  • Possible correlation between sperm count and
    pollution.

22
Birth Rate per Age Group, United States, 1965,
1990, 2002 (per 1,000 women)
23
Average Sperm Count of Americans, 1938-98 (per ml)
24
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
  • Social determinants
  • The social norms and acceptance of practices
    affecting fertility.
  • Differ from society to society.
  • Marriage
  • Particularly the average age of marriage.
  • The percentage of people never married varies
    spatially and affects fertility rates.
  • Late marriage age generally involves less
    children.
  • Contraception
  • Used by 30-50 of all married couples.
  • Availability of contraceptive devices and social
    attitudes toward their use affect fertility
    rates.
  • Sharp differences exist between DCs and LDCs.
  • Some notable exceptions, such as China and Cuba.

25
Girls between 15 and 19 who are Married, Divorced
or Widowed, 2004
26
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
  • Abortion
  • Last resort measure when contraception failed (or
    was not used).
  • Its legality is not universal and under challenge
    in some countries where it is permitted.
  • Global figures (1999)
  • 210 million pregnancies.
  • 22 of all pregnancies end up in a abortion.
  • 46.2 million abortions, of which 20 million
    procedures are obtained illegally.
  • Illegal abortions are common in most societies
    where it is prohibited.
  • Culture plays an important determining role in
    the impact of abortion.
  • United States 49 all pregnancies unwanted and
    about half of unwanted pregnancies ended in
    abortion (1.4 million abortions per year).

27
Pregnancies and Abortions per Women Aged 15-19
Years, 1998
28
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
  • Economic determinants
  • The role of children, or their value affects
    fertility.
  • Inverse relationships
  • Fertility and income per capita.
  • Fertility and urbanization.
  • Traditional rural societies
  • Children still play an important economic role
    and contribute to family wealth.
  • Fertility is likely to remain higher.
  • Industrial and post-industrial societies
  • Costs tend to increase with the development level
    of the society.
  • Deflate the fertility rate since parents must
    consider the direct and opportunity costs of
    bearing additional children.

29
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
  • Direct costs lost
  • For the support of children.
  • Food, clothing, housing, education, etc.
  • Estimated to be between 150,000 and 290,000
    from birth to 17.
  • Opportunity costs lost
  • Lower standard of living.
  • Reduce the ability to save and invest.
  • Labor force participation of women is affected by
    child-bearing.
  • Relationship between inflation and fertility?
  • Increase in the cost of living may have an impact
    on fertility.
  • Particularly if both parents must work to support
    the family.
  • In the United States, the costs that have
    increased the most
  • Housing.
  • Professional services (e.g. healthcare and
    education).
  • Energy.

30
3. Factors Influencing Fertility
  • Dysgenics
  • The Idiocracy Syndrome controversial concept.
  • In the past, successful individuals were
    rewarded with more descendants
  • Evidence that in England, up to the 1850s,
    wealthy individuals had more children.
  • The welfare state appears to have reversed the
    situation
  • The poorest and the least successful tend to have
    more children.
  • Negative correlation found between fertility and
    IQ.
  • At the global level
  • The poorest societies tend to have the highest
    fertility.
  • International aid enables dysfunctional economies
    to endure.

31
C. Mortality
  • 1. Crude Death Rate
  • 2. Infant Mortality Rate
  • 3. Life Expectancy

32
1. Crude Death Rate
  • Death rate
  • Easiest of the variables to consider.
  • Occurs just once per person and is the most
    recorded.
  • Crude Death Rate (CDR)
  • Annual number of deaths per 1000 population (all
    ages included).

25 males of any age
25 females of any age
10 people who died that year
1,000
30
CDR 30
33
1. Crude Death Rate
  • Causes of death
  • Throughout most of history famine, epidemics, and
    wars have been the leading causes of death.
  • Primary causes of death began to shift to
    degenerative problems related to aging.
  • These include such factors as heart disease and
    cancer.
  • Death and welfare
  • Used to be considered a sign of the health of a
    population.
  • Different age structures among the populations of
    different countries.
  • Possible for a nation with high living standards
    to have a higher death rate than a poorer nation.
  • Reason overall older population.

34
Crude Death Rate, 2000
35
Fertility and Mortality in the United States,
1950-2004 (in 1000s)
36
2. Infant Mortality Rate
  • Definition
  • Expressed in numbers of deaths of infants under
    one year per 1000 live births of the same year.
  • Also considers the death of children under 5 per
    1000 in their cohort.
  • High levels of infant mortality pull down life
    expectancy rates.
  • Reflects the quality of the health system.
  • Very strong differences between developed and
    developing countries.

37
Infant Mortality Rate, 2000
38
Causes of Death for Children under 5 in
Developing Countries
39
3. Life Expectancy
  • Definition
  • Number of years a person is expected to live.
  • Based on current death rates.
  • Does not necessarily apply to current generation.
  • May change due to ameliorations in standards of
    living.
  • Context
  • Strong geographical variations in life
    expectancy.
  • Half a century ago, most people died before the
    age of 50.
  • Global average life expectancy reached 66 years
    in 2006.
  • Several achievements and failures
  • Economic development has benefited human health.
  • Improvement in diet and sanitation.
  • Urbanization may have adverse effects.

40
3. Life Expectancy
41
3. Life Expectancy
  • Factors behind higher life expectancy
  • About 40 years was gained in the 20th century.
  • 90 of the reduction in the death rate occurred
    before the introduction of antibiotics or
    vaccines.
  • Major factors (33 years)
  • Improved sanitation (for food and water).
  • Reduction in crowding.
  • Central heating.
  • Sewer systems.
  • Refrigeration.
  • Improved health (7 years)
  • Mainly medical technology.
  • Small share attributed to drugs.
  • Modern medicine a sham?

42
Life Expectancy at Birth, 1910 and 1998
43
World Average Life Expectancy, 1950-2005
44
of Men and Women Expected to Survive to Age 80,
by Region (Among people born 1995-2000)
45
Yearly Cost of a 1,000,000 Life Insurance
Premium, 2001
46
3. Life Expectancy
  • Optimum life expectancy
  • Life expectancy is ultimately dictated by human
    physiology
  • At some points, organs cease to function
    properly.
  • Limit on the lifespan of non-cancerous human
    cells.
  • Nearing life expectancy limits
  • Even if age-related diseases such cancer, heart
    disease, and stroke were eradicated, life
    expectancy would only increase by 15 years.
  • Currently around 76 years.
  • Expected to reach 85 years in most developed
    countries by 2030.

47
D. Population Profiles
  • 1. Population Pyramid
  • 2. Dependency Ratio
  • 3. Sex Structure

48
1. Population Pyramid
  • Definition
  • Graph showing the breakdown of each sex by age
    group (cohort).
  • Illustrates a nations population structure.
  • Shows the male/female composition of the
    population.
  • Most of the time, the breakdown involves 5 years
    periods.

75
60-75
Females
Males
45-60
30-45
15-30
0-15
49
Population Pyramid of Mexico, 2000
50
Population Pyramid of Sweden, 2000
51
1. Population Pyramid
  • Mexican pyramid
  • Much wider base than the others.
  • Beginning of transition.
  • Rapidly growing population where the percentage
    of people under 15 years of age is high.
  • Swedens pyramid
  • Does not appear to be a pyramid at all.
  • Youngest component is smaller than its
    middle-aged population and only slightly larger
    than its aged population.
  • No-growth situation, since some deaths occur from
    all age groupings.
  • Sweden has a higher death rate than Mexico.

52
Population Pyramid of the United States, 2000
53
1. Population Pyramid
  • USA pyramid
  • Intermediate situation
  • Aging population.
  • Large amounts of recent immigration.
  • Bulge in the 30-54 year old component
  • The baby boom generation.
  • Small numbers in the 55-65 year old component
  • Low birth rates during the 1930s and during WW
    II.
  • Dip in 20-29 segment of the population
  • Low birth rates during the 1970s and early 1980s.
  • Limited immigration.
  • Preponderance of women at the top of the pyramid,
    an indication of their longer average life span.

54
Population Pyramid, Berlin 1946
55
1. Population Pyramid
  • German pyramid
  • Shows the most extreme example of population
    decline.
  • Vast difference between males and females in the
    upper age groups.
  • Vast number of military casualties among the
    population which fought the WWII.
  • Significant impacts in the post WWII labor market.

56
2. Dependency Ratio
  • Definition
  • Comparison between the productive and
    non-productive population.
  • Non-productive population
  • Refers to the very old (usually gt65 years of age)
    and the very young (usually lt15).
  • Considered to be the non-productive segments of
    society because they are not part of the labor
    force.
  • Productive population
  • Between 15 and 65.
  • This portion of the population constitutes the
    labor force.
  • Revised to consider lower than 20 years in
    developed countries (increasing time spent for
    education).
  • Ratio (lt15) (gt65) / (15-65) 100

57
2. Dependency Ratio
  • Implications
  • Society incurs costs in supporting its dependent
    population.
  • Old age generates social costs
  • Retirement benefits.
  • Increased medical expenditures.
  • USA 12 of the population over 65 60 of health
    care costs.
  • Greater consumption of other social services.
  • Youths
  • Some medical costs.
  • Great expenditures for education.
  • National budgets often reflect these
    expenditures.
  • Linked with the population pyramid
  • Pyramidal distributions have high dependency
    ratios.
  • Rectangular distributions have high dependency
    ratios.
  • Transitional pyramids have low dependency ratios.

58
Dependency Ratio, World, 1950-2050
59
Dependency Ratios in G-7 Countries, 2000-2050
60
2. Dependency Ratio
  • Aging
  • Population over 65 years
  • 2005 477 million (7.3).
  • 2020 719 million (9.4).
  • 2050 1,492 million (16.2).
  • Impacts
  • Social security costs
  • Demographic changes may bankrupt the system.
  • Not a saving but a pay as you go system.
  • Requires a large working age population to be
    sustainable.
  • Medical costs and the medical industry at large.
  • Public sector funds such as the federal budget.
  • Goods and services used by the elderly.
  • Local impacts (school districts).

61
Population 60, Industrial and Developing
Countries, 1950-05, With Projections to 2050
62
Percentage of the Population between 15 and 65,
2000
63
2. Dependency Ratio
  • Impacts
  • Social security costs
  • Demographic changes may bankrupt the system.
  • Not a saving but a pay as you go system.
  • Requires a large working age population to be
    sustainable.
  • Medical costs and the medical industry at large.
  • Public sector funds such as the federal budget.
  • Goods and services used by the elderly experience
    increasing demand levels.
  • Those used by the young and/or middle aged will
    decline in relative importance.
  • Local impacts (school districts).

64
Coverage and Actuarial Balances of Current Public
Pension Systems USA, Japan and China
65
3. Sex Structure
  • Definition
  • Gender composition of a population.
  • Males / Females 100.
  • Probability
  • Approximately equal probability of male and
    female births.
  • Normally expect sex ratios to remain very close
    to 100.
  • This is often not the case.
  • Factors
  • Life expectancy at birth is greater for females
    (79 years) than for males (72).
  • Gap has increased steadily since 1920, when the
    difference was just one year.

66
Sex Ratio (males per 100 females), 2000
67
Sex Ratio in the United States, 1820-2005 (males
per 100 females)
WWI
WWII
Civil War
Immigration Boom
Life expectancy gap
Immigration Boom
68
E. Population Capacity
  • 1. Population Density
  • 2. Population Distribution
  • 3. Population Capacity

69
1. Population Density
  • Arithmetic density
  • Relates the size of a population (P) to the area
    which contains it (A).
  • Number of people per square mile or square
    kilometer.
  • Without regard to the productive quality of the
    area.
  • Distributional imbalances.
  • Physiological density
  • Number of people per unit of productive land.
  • Productive is generally equated with arable land
    (AL).
  • Important figure to measure sustainability.

AD P / A
Arable land
PD P / AL
70
Density Measures for Selected Countries, 1995 (in
people per square mile)
71
2. Population Distribution
  • Definition
  • Considers the distribution of population
    densities over the earths surface.
  • Informative in assessing a nations population.
  • Typical concentrations along major river systems.
  • Areas of great concentration
  • South Asia.
  • East Asia.
  • Western Europe.
  • Northeastern North America.
  • Empty areas are attributed to
  • Harsh physical landscapes.
  • Harsh temperature.

72
World Population Density and Distribution, 1995
73
3. Population Capacity
  • How many people can be sustained by the Earth?
  • Based on human choices and natural constraints.
  • Maximum density.
  • Quantity of arable land.
  • Agricultural technology.
  • Harvesting the ocean.
  • Human facilities.
  • Availability of resources (energy, construction
    materials, etc.).

Space
Technology
Consumption
Resources
74
3. Population Capacity
  • Demographic capacity
  • Studies about natures capacity to support human
    life go back many centuries.
  • Leeuwenhoek (1679) extrapolated densities for
    Holland to the whole planet (13.4 billion
    capacity).
  • Focus
  • Space.
  • Energy requirements.
  • Non-renewable resources.
  • Photosynthetic potentials.
  • All are based on the same principle
  • Tracing resource and energy flows through the
    human economy.

75
3. Population Capacity
  • Ravenstein in 1891
  • Concept of carrying capacity.
  • Focused on the earths cultivable areas, and
    their potential productivity given increases in
    yields over time
  • Fertile 200 people / km2.
  • Steppe 10 people / km2.
  • Desert 1 person / km2.
  • Figure of 6 billion people as the number Earth
    could sustain without lowering living standards.
  • Reached this number in 1999.

Arable land
X
Agricultural technology
/
Consumption per capita
76
3. Population Capacity
  • Contemporary issues
  • Events such as the Green Revolution were not
    foreseen by Ravenstein.
  • Managed to increase agricultural yields in many
    areas by quantities far greater than he had
    anticipated.
  • Efforts to calculate carrying capacity have
    largely failed.
  • Too many variables.
  • Value ranges between 4 and 16 billion.

77
3. Population Capacity
  • Level of consumption
  • Alternative perspective.
  • The issue is not resource supply, but resource
    demand.
  • The world is producing only a finite number of
    resources for consumption.
  • Demographic capacity is linked with level of
    resource consumption.
  • American (lifetime)
  • 1 million kg of atmospheric waste.
  • 10 million kg of liquid waste.
  • 1 million kg of solid waste.
  • 700,000 kg of minerals.
  • 24 billion BTU of energy.
  • 25,000 kg of plants.
  • 2,000 animals (28,000 kg).

78
3. Population Capacity
  • Ecological footprint and biocapacity
  • Try to assess the demand of human activities on
    the environment.
  • Transformed over an unit of surface.
  • Footprint (2003) 2.2 hectares per capita.
  • Biocapacity (2003) 1.8 hectares per capita.
  • Net deficit, in theory.
  • May be overestimating the footprint because of
    CO2 sequestration assumptions.

Area
Population
X
X
Consumption per person
Bio-productivity
X
Footprint intensity


Biocapacity(Supply)
Ecological Footprint (Demand)
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