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Title: Energy workshop for groups working on Burma: Thai and Burmese energy sector


1
Energy workshop for groups working on Burma Thai
and Burmese energy sector
  • Chris Chom Greacen
  • chom_at_palangthai.org
  • chris_at_palangthai.org
  • www.palangthai.org

2
topics
  • Burmese energy sector (compiled by MEE NET)
  • Structure of Thai power sector
  • Centralized structure and its problems
  • Governance issues
  • Consumption patterns
  • PDP, load forecast, over-investment
  • Decentralized generation
  • Renewable energy (target, VSPP regulations)

3
Burma Power Sector
  • Infographic about Burmas Power sector
  • Links
  • Decision Making Structure
  • Actors
  • Generation mix

4
Decision Making Structure
The electricity system is centralized and under
the control and management of the government and
state enterprises.
Ministry of Electricity Power 2 Gas-fired Thermal
power plant Transmission Distribution
System Link to See Structure
Ministry of Electricity Power 1 Hydropower Coal
Fired power plants Link to See Structure
Dpt. Of Electric Power
Hydropower Generation Enterprise
Dpt. of Hydropower Implementation
Dpt. of Hydropower Planning
Myanmar Electricity Power Enterprise Generation,Tr
ansmission Distribution System
Electric Supply Enterprise
Yangon City Electricity Supply Board (YESB)
Ministry of Electricity Power established in 1997
and in 2006 was restructured and separated into 2
ministries Ministry of Electricity power 1
(MOEP-1) takes responsibilities for -
Planning and Development of new hydropower plants
and also operation and maintenance of hydropower
stations and coal fired power plants. -
Selling electricity to Ministry of Electricity
power 2
5
Decision Making Structure (Cont)
  • Ministry of Electricity power 2 (MOEP-2) in
    charge of transmission and distribution of
    electricity generated by Ministry of Electricity
    power 1
  • Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) is a
    State own enterprise established in 1997. It is
    an implementing agency responsible for power
    generation, transmission and distribution
    throughout the country.
  • - Thermal power plants Operation and maintenance
    of Gas Turbine Power Stations and Combined Cycle
    Power Plants
  • - Construction of Transmission, Distribution and
    substation
  • Yangon City Electricity Supply Board (YESB) was
    formed in 2005 and is tasked with approving
    businesses to supply electricity in areas that
    cannot be fully supplied.
  • Other ministries and authorities involved with
    the energy is as follows
  • Ministry of Energy and Myanmar Oil and Gas
    Enterprise (MOGE) in charge of Oil and Gas
    management
  • Ministry of Mines in charge of Coal business
  • Ministry of Forestry is responsible for Biomass
    and Fuel Wood
  • Ministry of Science and Technology is
    responsible for Renewable Energy

6
Actors in the Power Sector
MOPE-1 Hydropower, Coal
IPPs
MEPE Gas Turbine, CCPP
Small privates
Generation
Transmission
MEPE MOEP-2
Small Privates
MEPE
Distribution
Domestic Customer
Export to India, China
Transmission system is under the control of the
MEPE and MOEP-2. They will finance, construct and
operate the transmission system. MEPE distributes
electricity through the national grid to 5 states
and 6 divisions. IPPs cannot own transmission
lines. However, about private participation,
private sector has been allowed to cooperate with
MOEP-1, MOEP-2 and MEPE in generation,
distribution, sale and service. IPPs can jointly
invest with the ministries. Small generator
enterprises can supply power to consumers.
7
(No Transcript)
8
Generation Mix
Hydropower is the main fuel source in the
country. In 2008, electricity generated from
hydroelectricity was 60.83 of total generation.
Gas and steam power are the second ranked fuel
used. Currently, there are the following power
projects -14 Hydropower stations -10 gas
turbine and thermal power plants -1 Coal fired
power station
9
Statistics from 2000-2008 Installed Capacity,
Generation
Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Installed Capacity 976 1008.5 1038.5 1038.5 1546.9 1546.9 1546.9 1571.9 1719.9
Peak Demand 721.1 692.5 701.2 708.3 864 966.4 995.7 1005 1061.2
Per capita electricity consumption 75.43 68.68 78.06 85.53 86.35 81.00 92.19 94.00 92.80

Source Myanmar Ministry of Electricity
World Bank, World Development Indicators
From the figures, it is clear that there is a gap
between installed capacity and highest demand for
electricity. This can be due to a number of
factors including the low efficiency of power
plants in generating power. Another possible
reason is that power generated is also exported
to neighboring countries (peak demand in the
graph is only an indicator for domestic demand).
10
(No Transcript)
11
Trans-Burma dual pipelines construction begin soon
12
Dynamics of Electricity Sector
After Burma attained independence in 1948, the
government established the Electricity Supply
Board in 1951 and thus began the governments
monopoly on utilities (before that, some local
business were able to generate electricity). In
1972, Electricity Supply Board was reorganized to
become the Electricity Power Corporation (EPC).
The Ministry of Energy was also formed in 1985 as
was responsible for the oil and gas sectors as
well as for electricity generation and
distribution. Ultimately, on the 15th of
November 1997, under the State Law and Order
Restoration Council, the Ministry of Electricity
Power was established. The Myanmar Electric Power
Enterprise (MEPE) was also formed at this
time. MEPE continues to serve as the State
utility company while the the Ministry
restructured into to two ministries, the Ministry
of Electricity Power (1) and (2). See Burma Power
Sector Steps towards Privatization In late
November 2005, to meet increasing demands from
new satellite towns and industrial zones, the
government started to allow private agencies to
supply electricity. Under the Yangon City
Electricity Supply Board Law, small businesses
in Yangon can generate and sell power to
consumers. However, once implemented the
government encountered protests from consumers
who faced high costs from small generators fueled
by an expensive commodity, oil. In addition,
generators and other suppliers also faced higher
costs once they had to conform to standards set
by the government. Though the government has
allowed for private investments, the main
generation plants and the entire transmission
system are still under the control of Burmas
government.
13
Burma Power Policy
  • Burmas economic development strategies,
    especially in its energy sector are driven by
    centralized government decision-making. The
    Burmese domestic energy market is influenced both
    by regional and international investment flows
    from major regional states looking for energy
    resources.
  • Burmas natural resource rich country including
    an abundance of gas and oil reserves and high
    hydropower potential are being exploited.
    Investors from the region including Thailand,
    China, South Asian Countries, South Korean, and
    the GMS countries are all involved in extractive
    industries within the country. In addition to
    reaping high profits from these trade
    opportunities, the government is also using the
    investment ventures as useful tools in its battle
    with minority ethnic groups who currently occupy
    large swathes of resource rich lands. In the name
    of development, the government has been expelling
    the groups from construction sites and economic
    development zones.
  • Though the Burmese government claims that energy
    sector development is vital for meeting the
    populations basic needs and overall development
    strategy, Burmas electrification rate is very
    low, even after years of resource exploitation.
    In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burmas 58.82 million
    population lived without electricity. Or,
    according to UN statistics, only 5 of all
    Burmese citizens have access to electricity even
    though the governments stated goal is to
    increase electrification rates to 60 by 2020.
  • During 2010-2020, Burmas energy sector plans to
    continue oil and gas pipeline construction, oil
    and gas extraction plans, hydroelectric power
    development, and transmission line construction
    both for domestic use and for regional
    interconnection plans.
  • Links
  • Power Planning Subpage
  • Dynamics of Electricity Sector Subpage

14
Burma Power Planning
  • In order to achieve its economic and social
    development plans of 12 annual GDP Growth,
    Burmas Fourth Short-Term Five-Year Plan
    (2006/2007-2010/2011) was formulated to meet this
    stated target. One of power-related objectives in
    the five year plan is To develop electric power
    and energy sector to be in conformity with
    developing trend industries.
  • In addition, specific Long-term Policy for the
    Energy Sector is as follows
  • Sustainable use of natural resources to support
    the economic growth in a sustainable manner
  • Efficient utilization of available energy
    resources
  • Smooth and reliable energy supplies for building
    a modem agro industrial based nation
  • A well balanced use of energy resources by the
    creation of an equal distribution of the share of
    various primary energy sources for conservation
  • Promoting the development and utilization of all
    available renewable energy resources
  • Creating an attractive base for further
    investment in energy and energy related ventures.
  • Regional policy and cooperation in infrastructure
    development in order to support investment and
    trade in the region results in the
  • Governments plans for near term cross-country
    cooperation activities as follows
  • Linked infrastructure including hydropower power
    plants, power lines, pipelines and supporting
    road networks
  • Shared infrastructure including road s, channels
    for navigations, bridges and etc.
  • Shared link or independent infrastructure for
    import and export of oil, gas petrochemicals and
    other related products
  • Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE), a
    state-owned enterprise, has been distributing
    electricity generated by major hydropower and gas
    turbine stations. The national grid supplies 94
    of the nations power needs while another 6
    comes from off-grid isolated energy sources.
    MEPEs objectives for the countrys development
    is as follows
  • Developing Hydropower for base load and gas
    turbine for peak load
  • In order to optimize the use of natural gas by
    gas turbine, combined cycle power plants are
    implemented
  • To expand the national grid

15
Burma Power Planning (Cont)
Power Development Plans and Transmission
Interconnection Projects According to its power
demand forecast, in 2030, Burma will have a peak
demand of 7,334.82 MW (peak demand in 2008 was
1,061.2 MW). During 2010-2020, several projects
will be Developed. At present, 19 hydroelectric
power projects are under construction.
Furthermore, 18 cross border hydropower power
projects are currently being planned through
investments by companies and/or state owned
enterprises from China, Thailand and India. If
these projects are completed, their total
installed capacity will rise to 19,413 MW.
Meanwhile, in 2009 Burma current installed
capacity is only 2,255.9 MW. Transmission
system To facilitate power transmission,
during 2010-2020, the government plans to
construct 62 transmission lines throughout
Burma in the near future (at present, 129
transmission lines are in operation )
16
Thailand Power Sector
  • Infographic about Thailands Power sector
  • Links
  • Decision Making Structure
  • Actors
  • Generation mix

17
Decision Making Structure
  • Thailand has Centralized Electricity Structure.
    Policy determination and planning including
    system
  • operation are in hands of the government and the
    state owned enterprise the Ministry of Energy
    and the Electricity Generation Authority of
    Thailand (EGAT).
  • EPPO and EGAT are responsible for electricity
    supply planning.
  • DEDE is mainly responsible for alternative energy
    development
  • ERC was established in 2009, as an independent
    authority, to regulate and ensure efficiency and
    transparency of electricity management, review
    final draft PDP, license to power producers

Cabinet
National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC)
Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)
Ministry of Energy
Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO)
EGAT
PTT Public Co., Ltd. (State Enterprise)
Dpt. of Alternative Energy Development and
Efficiency (DEDE)
Bangchak Petroleum Pub Co., Ltd. (State
Enterprise)
Dpt. of Energy Business
Energy Fund Administration Institute (EFAI)
(Public Organization)
Dpt. of Mineral Fuels
18
Actors in Power Sector
SPPs
IPPs
EGAT Power Plants
Generation
R E G U L A T O R
Power Purchaser, System Operation, and
Transmission
Power Purchase
System Operation Transmission
Bulk Power Supply
EGAT
Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)
Distribution/ Retail Supply
PEA
MEA
VSPP
End Users
End Users
Direct Customers
Under Thailand Enhanced Single Buyer Structure,
all producers have to sell electricity to EGAT
that holds a monopoly over the transmission
system. EGAT then sells power to MEA and PEA for
distribution to consumers. Only a small amount of
consumers directly purchase electricity rom EGAT/
IPPs/ SPPs, most of them are industries. In
addition, ERC serves as a regulator in the
system.
19
Generation Mix
Thailand uses natural gas as its major fuel to
generate electricity, 72.5 in 2009. Lignite and
coal are used 11 and 8.4 respectively.
Installed generating capacity from April until
August in 2010 reached 30,160.01 MW. In 2009,
the installed capacity was 29,212.01 MW.Share
of Power Generation by Fuel Type January to
October 2010The accumulated power generation
from January to October is 134,978.22 GWh. At
the end of 2008, the generation reached
148,231.16. Meanwhile, in 2009, the total
generation was 145,214.62 GWh which represents a
decrease between 2008 and 2009 of 2.04. Peak
Demand of 2010 happened in May, at 24,009.9 MW
whereas in 2008 and 2009 peak demands were 22,045
MW and 22,568.9 MW respectively.
20
OverviewThailands power policy is driven by
two key factors continued economic growth driven
by the industrial sector and energy sector
financiers as well as ambitious plans to be the
energy leader in the region. Thailands stated
goal of being the Hub of the ASEAN Grid is at
the core of its energy investments. Thailands
centralized power planning structure emphasizes
increasing energy supplies to meet expected
demands. These needs can only be met through
continued investments in large scale power
projects both domestically as well as in
neighboring countries. Power planning also
includes expectations that the regional
transmission network will be realized allowing
for both exports and imports of electricity with
neighboring countries. International concern
about climate change is also playing a role in
Thailands power development plans. By pledging
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy
sector by 30 by 2020, Thailand is planning on
increased investments in nuclear power projects,
hydropower projects and the promotion of Clean
Development Mechanism projects. Meanwhile,
renewable energy development, Energy Efficiency
and Demand-side management (DSM) are not
adequately being promoted by the government.
Links Power PlanningHistory of Electricity
Reform
  • Thailand Power Policy

21
Power Planning Sub page
  • The centralized government planning process and
    the National Economic and Social Development Plan
    in addition to regional development and power
    development plans are crucial in Thailands power
    sector planning.
  • The National Economic and Social Development Plan
    such as Southern and Eastern Seaboard Development
    Projects, which are focused on heavy industries
    utilize large amounts of energy consumption and
    require infrastructure development that includes
    huge power plants. been
  • Moreover, current Framework of Thailands Power
    Strategies have also been devised by the
    government, Ministry of Energy and
  • state-owned enterprise Electricity Generating
    Authority of Thailand (EGAT) to include the
    following
  • Maintaining energy stability and security
    supplying sufficient energy to meet demand,
    promoting public participation especially in
    national power planning process, preparing
    readiness for gas supplied emergency
  • Regulating energy businesses
  • Strengthening energy utilities and authorities
  • Promoting generation and supply of alternative
    energy
  • Reducing energy use and lower greenhouse gas
    emission
  • Power Development Plan (PDP)
  • Thus far, Thailand electricity sector propelled
    by
  • PDP 2010 (2010-2030) ??????????? PDP 2010,
  • the latest 20 year PDP approved in early
  • 2010. It has been formulated according to
  • the Ministry of Energys framework with specific

PDP 2010 GDP (Base Case)
Diesel
Renewable Energy
Heavy Fuel Oil
Import
Natural Gas
Imported Coal
Lignite
Nuclear
Hydro
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
22
Power Planning Sub page (Cont)
  • Arguments made during PDP 2010
  • Thailands civil society criticized the 2010 PDP
    approval process due to lack of transparency and
    genuine public participation. The national plan
    was approved by National Energy Policy Council
    during the chaotic political situation that
    occurred in April in Thailand.
  • It is the first PDP covering a 20 year period
    (Previous plans last 5 years and 15 years).
    Therefore, long-term demand forecast and
    investment planning will be less accurate and
    err from the reality.
  • Notably, even though Thailands PDP noted an
    aspiration to harmonize its renewable energy
    component with its Link to 15-year Alternative
    Energy Development Plan (AEDP), for 2008-2022,
    developed by Department of Alternative Energy
    Development and Efficiency under Ministry of
    Energy, this is not reflected in the official
    PDP. According to the AEDP, generation capacity
    from AEDP is to reach 5,608 MW, however the
    official PDP only includes plans to increase
    generation capacity from renewable energy sources
    to 4,049.5 MW
  • Unenthusiastic promotion on renewable energy such
    as decreasing adders (money support per unit) for
    solar power and excuse that limitations on the
    transmission system to support electricity from
    any renewable energy sources for the national
    grid
  • EGAT has tried to preserve major shares in the
    generation market by determining that EGATs
    proportion in new power plants must be at least
    50
  • Process of PDP development and approval
  • EGAT draft and propose to Ministry of Energy and
    Energy Regulatory Commission to review
  • Approval process by National Energy Policy
    Committee (NEPC) comprised of Ministers,
    representatives from the National Economic and
    Social Development Board while the Prime Minister
    serves as Chairman.
  • PDP will be proposed to the Cabinet as a final
    step
  • In addition to PDP and AEDP, the government had
    just conducted a preliminary study of a 20 year
    energy-
  • saving plan, which aims to review potential of
    all sectors in reducing energy demand by 25 by
    2030.
  • LINKS
  • Articles

23
History of Electricity Reform Subpage
  • Thailands initial centralized economic and
    social planning saw electricity projects as basic
    investments providing Thai citizens with basic
    infrastructure to improve their livelihoods and
    to to drive economic growth. Mega projects
    including generation stations, hydropower, coal
    fired power projects and transmission system were
    constructed gradually.
  • State Control
  • The government decided that the most efficient
    model for managing the power sector was to
    establish its own state owned enterprise. This
    led in 1968, to the consolidation of regional
    state owned generating companies into a central
    national electricity termed the Electricity
    Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). The
    distribution networks, Metropolitan Electricity
    Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity
    Authority (PEA) were respectively set up in 1958
    and 1960. MEA became responsible for power
    distribution in Bangkok and neighboring provinces
    while PEA was responsible for power distribution
    in the remaining provinces. By the end of the
    1960s, the power system was centralized under
    EGAT and the two distribution companies.
  • Privates allowed to generation
  • In 1992, Independent Private Power Producers
    (IPPs) were allowed into the system through long
    term concessions operative power plants in
    accordance with Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
    with EGAT. EGAT continued to hold sole control
    over the transmission system operation. At the
    same time, the Thai government also launched a
    Small Power Producers (SPPs) program to promote
    the use of clean efficient energy or the use of
    renewable energy sources for domestic use.
    However, the plan was also criticized for the
    overwhelming preference for large industrial
    producers (who received SPP licenses) over
    smaller power producers including rural
    cooperatives, municipalities, hospitals.
  • The first step of privatization was completed
    with the relaxation of power tariffs. At that
    time the National Energy Policy Office (under the
    Ministry of Energy today) believed that
    marketizing the power tariff would lead to lower
    tariffs over time. However, the marketization of
    power tariffs led to a rapid increase due to
    rising oil and gas prices at the same time.

24
History of Electricity Reform Subpage (Cont)
  • Privatization without Extensive Liberalization
  • In 2000, the second step of privatization
    involving the introduction of the power pool
    model along with the unbundling of the
    generation, transmission and distribution systems
    was introduced. These were in preparation for
    complete market competition in the power market
    by 2003. However, with such attempt, it was
    However, the attempt at privatization was not a
    success. Many arguments were raised by parties
    including academics and consumers that it was too
    risky to allow for a market mechanism to control
    prices, regulatory body, etc. Two other options
    were proposed introduced, EGAT proposed a Third
    Party Access Model which allows consumers to
    independently choose suppliers while Academics
    proposed Single Buyer Model which allows for
    public ownership of distribution and even
    transmission.
  • Later, EGAT proposed a different model moving
    from private sector participation competition to
    achieve efficiency to one that allows for
    national efficiency and competitiveness and
    secure regional leadership and To build strong
    national champions in the energy sector. Within
    this model, EGAT would need remain a large major
    player in order to compete against multinational
    energy companies in the region.
  • National Champion and Enhanced Single Buyer
    (ESB) in the present model
  • Under this proposed model EGAT can be the
    National Champion and maintain its monopoly
    position. This model
  • is different from a single buyer in which private
    entities have to compete with EGAT in generation
    but EGAT retains a
  • monopoly on the transmission system and a
    majority of generation.
  • EGAT had plans to reform itself into a private
    company, listing itself on the stock market to
    raise capital and expand in
  • the region. However, this plan finally failed in
    2006.
  • LINKS
  • Articles

25
Structure and Overview of Thai Power Sector
26
... Steps involved to deliver electricity to
end-users
Retail, Meter Reading, Billing settlement
Power Generation
Fuel procurement
Transmission
Distribution
27
Structure of Thai power sector
Generation ( share)
Import (2)
EGAT (50)
IPPs (41)
VSPPs (ltlt1)
SPPs (7)
EGAT (100) SO
Transmission
PEA (67)
MEA (31)
Direct Customers (2)
Distribution
Users
Users
Remarks - Figure of Share in 2008 - ERC
Energy Regulatory Commission
????? EPPO Aug 2009
28
Generation by fuel type
Power generation (May 2009)
Generation by sources
IPP 12,151 MW (43)
EGAT, 13,615 MW (48)
SPP 2,073 MW (7)
Import Exchange 640 MW (2)
Total 28,482 MW
????? EPPO Aug 2009
29
Power Supply Management
  • Review the Power Development Plan (PDP) every 6
    months to be in line with the changing demand
    situation
  • Maintain the reserve margin to be no less than
    15
  • Diversify fuel types in power generation
  • Give importance to SPPs and VSPPs using
    renewable energy as fuel
  • Study the feasibility of nuclear power
    generation.
  • Promote Clean Coal Technology for coal-fired
    power generation
  • International cooperation in power development
    projects
  • Power purchase from LPDR, Myanmar, China,
    Cambodia and Malaysia

????? EPPO Aug 2009
30
Overview of Electricity Generating CapacityPDP
2007 (Revision 2 _at_ Mar09)
  • Installed capacity as at Dec 2008 29,140 MW
  • Total increased capacity (2009-2021) 30,155
    MW
  • 2009 - 2015 12,605 MW
  • 2016 - 2021 17,550 MW
  • Decommissioned plants -7,502 MW
  • Total generating capacity up to 2021 51,792 MW

Comparison of New Generating Capacity by Source
of Supply (in MW)
Year PDP 2007 Revision 1 PDP 2007 Revision 1 PDP 2007 Revision 1 PDP 2007 Revision 1 PDP 2007Revision 2 PDP 2007Revision 2 PDP 2007Revision 2 PDP 2007Revision 2 PDP 2007Revision 2 PDP 2007Revision 2
Year EGAT IPP SPP Purchase from Abroad EGAT IPP SPP VSPP Purchase from Abroad New Projects
2009 - 2015 4,615 4,400 1,193 5,473 3,769 4,400 1,985 264 2,187 -
2016 - 2021 8,900 1,400 575 8,690 8,000 1,600 - 300 2,850 4,800
Total Increased Capacity 13,515 5,800 1,768 14,163 11,769 6,000 1,985 564 5,037 4,800
Total Increased Capacity 35,246 35,246 35,246 35,246 30,155 30,155 30,155 30,155 30,155 30,155
Difference of New Capacity when compared with PDP 2007 (Revision 1) Difference of New Capacity when compared with PDP 2007 (Revision 1) Difference of New Capacity when compared with PDP 2007 (Revision 1) Difference of New Capacity when compared with PDP 2007 (Revision 1) Difference of New Capacity when compared with PDP 2007 (Revision 1) - 5,091 - 5,091 - 5,091 - 5,091 - 5,091 - 5,091
????? EPPO Aug 2009
31
IPPs 1st IPP Solicitation in 1994 7 Selected
IPPs with PPA Signed
IPP Plant Location Fuel Gen. Capacity (MW) COD
IPT Aow Pay, Chonburi Natural Gas 700 15 Aug 2000
TECO Ratchaburi Natural Gas 700 1 Jul 2000
Ratchburi Power Ratchaburi Natural Gas 1,400 Unit 1 1 Mar 2008 Unit 2 1 Jun 2008
Gulf Power Khaeng Koi, Saraburi Natural Gas 1,468 Unit 1 1 Mar 2007 Unit 2 1 Mar 2008
BLCP Pluakdaeng, Rayong Coal 1,346.5 Unit 1 13 Aug 2006 Unit 2 14 Nov 2006
Glow IPP Bowin, Chonburi Natural Gas 713 31 Jan 2003
EPEC Klong Mai, Samut Prakarn Natural Gas 350 25 Mar 2003
Total 6,677.5
????? EPPO Aug 2009
32
IPPs 2nd IPP Solicitation in 2007 4 Selected
IPPs with PPA Signed
IPP Plant Projects Shareholder Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Location SCOD
GHECO-One GLOW IPP2 65 Hemaraj 35 Coal 660 Rayong Nov 2011
National Power Supply (NPS) NPS 99.99 6 Thai Individuals 0.01 Coal 540 Chachoengsao Nov 2012/ Mar 2013
Siam Energy Gulf JP 99.94 6 Thai Individuals 0.06 Gas 1,600 Chachoengsao Mar 2012/ Sep 2012
Power Generation Supply Gulf JP 99.94 Individual Investors 0.06 Gas 1,600 Saraburi Jun 2014/ Dec 2014
Total 4,400
Remarks 7 Dec 07 NEPC approved the next IPP
Solicitation for power procurement during
2016-2018.
????? EPPO Aug 2009
33
Promotion of SPP/VSPP Power Generation
  • Small Power Producer (SPP)/ Very Small Power
    Producer (VSPP)
  • A generator of a private entity, state agency,
    state-owned enterprise, using cogeneration system
    or renewable energy, agricultural waste or
    residues, residues from agricultural or
    industrial production processes to produce
    electricity.
  • SPP ? Sale of electricity to the Electricity
    Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), is gt10
    MW up to 90 MW.
  • Firm contract 20-25 years
  • Non-firm contract 5 years and renewed
    automatically
  • VSPP ? Sale of electricity to the Distribution
    Utility, i.e. Metropolitan Electricity Authority
    (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority
    (PEA), is no more than 10 MW.

????? EPPO Aug 2009
34
Status of Power Generation from Renewable Energy
and Potential Target in 2011
Fuel Diversification in Power Generation
Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type (_at_ May
2009)
  • Currently, Thailands power generation depends
    heavily on natural gas as fuel.- Efforts are
    being made to boost greater use of renewable
    energy as fuel.

Existing 56 MW Target 165
MW Potential 700 MW
Existing 1 MW Target 115
MW Potential 1,600 MW
Existing 1,610 MW Target 2,800
MW Potential 4,400 MW
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
- Sugarcane industry, etc. - Biomass power
plants - Community power plants
  • Mini Hydro and Micro Hydro
  • Wind farm in southern
  • Thailand

Existing 5 MW Target 78
MW Potential 400 MW
Existing 46 MW Target 60
MW Potential 190 MW
Existing 32 MW Target 55 MW Potential
50,000 MW
Biogas
Solar PV
MSW
  • - Urban areas
  • Solar homes
  • His Majestys projects
  • 0.1 of installation areas

- Bangkok 9,000 tons/day - Municipality 6,300
tons/day - Industry 1,000 tons/day
Biogas from livestock farms and agro, palm
industry
(Data as at Jan2009)
????? EPPO Aug 2009
35
Power Purchase from Neighboring Countries
  • Thailand has cooperated in hydropower development
    with neighboring countries, on a bilateral basis.
  • MOUs on power purchase have been signed with
    Laos, China and Myanmar, with a total power
    purchase of 11,500 MW.

MOUs on Power Purchase Signed MOUs on Power Purchase Signed MOUs on Power Purchase Signed MOUs on Power Purchase Signed
Country Signing Date Purchase Cap. (MW) Within Year
LPDR 22 Dec 2007 7,000 2015
Myanmar 14 Jul 1997 1,500 2010
PR China 12 Nov 1998 3,000 2017
  • Imported power being supplied to Thailands
    Grid
  • LPDR 313 MW
  • Malaysia 300 MW High Voltage Direct Current
    (HVDC)

????? EPPO Aug 2009
36
Power Purchase from LPDR
Project Sale to Thailand (MW) COD
1) Currently supplying power to Thailand 1) Currently supplying power to Thailand 1) Currently supplying power to Thailand
1.1 Nam Theun-Hinboun 187 31 Mar 1998
1.2 Houay Hoa 126 3 Sep 1999
Sub-total 313
2) PPA signed but not yet supplied power to Thailand 2) PPA signed but not yet supplied power to Thailand 2) PPA signed but not yet supplied power to Thailand
2.1 Nam Theun 2 920 Dec 2009
2.2 Nam Ngum 2 615 Mar 2011
2.3 Theun-Hinboun Expansion 220 Mar 2012
Sub-total 1,755
3) Tariff MOU signed 3) Tariff MOU signed 3) Tariff MOU signed
3.1 Hongsa Lignite 1,473 2013
Sub-total 1,473
GRAND TOTAL 3,541
Status as at Jun09.
????? EPPO Aug 2009
37
Power Purchase from Myanmar
  • 14 Jul 1997 MOU on Power Purchase from Myanmar
    (1,500 MW by 2010).
  • 30 Nov 2005 MOU on Cooperation in the
    Development of Power Projects on Thanlwin and
    Tanintharyi Rivers.
  • Initially, Myanmar has proposed 2 power projects
    on Thanlwin River
  • (1) Hutgyi hydropower project, 1,200 MW
  • (2) Tasang hydropower project, 7,000 MW
  • Also, Tariff MOU signed for Mai Khot coal-fired
    power project (369MW)

Tasang 7,000 MW
(Other potential projects Upper/Lower Thanlwin
, 4,000 500 MW)
Hutgyi 1,200 MW
(Tanintharyi 600 MW)
????? EPPO Aug 2009
38
Power Purchase from Cambodia
  • Feasibility study is being conducted on 2
    potential projects
  • Strung Nam Hydropower Project 120 MW
  • Koh Kong Coal-fired Power Project 3,660 MW

Power Purchase from Malaysia
  • Thailand (EGAT) and Malaysia (TNB) have had power
    trade between each other since 1980, starting
    with 80 MW.
  • Current trade 300 MW via HVDC (High Voltage
    Direct Current) system.

????? EPPO Aug 2009
39
(17 November 2007)
NPIEP Milestones for Nuclear Power Program
Implementation
NPI Nuclear Power Infrastructure NPIEP NPI
Establishment Plan NPPDO Nuclear Power Program
Development Office NPP Nuclear Power Plant
NRB Nuclear Regulatory Body
1st Milestone
2nd Milestone
3rd Milestone
?
?
?
MS 0.1 MS 0.2 MS 1 Policy Decision MS 2 Call for Bids MS 3 Start Operation
? ? ? ? ?
Nuclear power option included in PDP2007 To prepare for policy decision Knowledgeable Commitment Financial Commitments Commissioning 1st NPP
GO NUCLEAR
?
?
?
Phase 2 Program Implementation
Phase - implement NPIEP with Milestones - full
NRB established - legislation international
protocols enacted - suitable sites for bid
selected - technology/qualified suppliers
selected - prepare to call bids
  • Phase 0.1Preliminary Phase
  • NPIPC 7 Sub-committees appointed
  • Issues Milestones considered
  • NPIEP prepared
  • Phase 3 Construction Phase
  • - NPIEP fully implemented
  • - bidding process completed
  • - design engineering
  • - manufacturing
  • - construction installation
  • - test runs inspection
  • NPP commissioning license
  • Phase 4 Operation Phase
  • - commercial operation
  • - OM
  • - planning for expansion
  • industrial and technology development plan

Phase 1 Pre-project Activity Phase - approve
NPIEP - set up NPPDO - infrastructure work
started - survey of potential sites -
feasibility study completed - public information
participation
1 year
3 years
3 years
6 years
2007
2008
2011
2014
2020
????? EPPO Aug 2009
40
Centralized structure
41
Centralized structure of electricity
  • Conflicts are a result of centralized structure
    of control
  • Loss of livelihood/health/forests for local
    people for the benefits of others, mainly urban
    commercial and industrial interests
  • Centralized grid in many cases, makes economic
    and technical sense, however
  • Control of a central grid need not be monopolized
    by one group
  • Structure of control determined by Cold War
    politics, not technical superiority

42
Problems with centralized control (1)
  • Separation of consumption and production leads to
    inefficient consumption
  • Out of sight, out of mind
  • Ratio of Power demand growth to GDP growth 1.4
  • Perverse incentives to exclude customer-owned
    generation
  • The more to invest, the more to profit.
  • Small-scale, renewable generators lack access
  • Energy conservation measures are viewed as a
    threat to EGATs profits.

43
Centralized decentralized generation
Cogeneration
Gasifier
44
Centralized decentralized generation
Cogeneration
Gasifier
45
Choice of supply options considered in the PDP by
EGAT
700 MW Coal-fired power plant
700 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant
230 MW gas-fired open cycle plant
1,000 MW nuclear plant
Hydro imports are politically negotiated outside
of PDP process DSM/EE, RE, Distributed generation
not considered as supply options
46
Centralized energy is also more costly
Decentralized generation brings down
costs Ireland retail costs for new capacity to
2021
  • Thailand
  • PDP 2007 requires 2 trillion baht to implement,
    comprising
  • million B
  • generation 1,482,000
  • transmission 595,000
  • Transmission adds 40 to generation costs

Source World Alliance for Decentralized Energy,
April 2005
47
Centralized generation wastes a lot of energy
(70 of heat value is lost adds to climate
change problem)
Installed capacity by types of generation in 2007
Loss in conversion process 61
Station use (in power plants) 1
Loss in transmission 3
Loss in distribution 5-8
Useful electricity to end-users lt30

48
Problems with centralized control (2)
  • Lack of accountability, transparency,
    participation in centralized planning processes
  • Political decisions masked in technical language
  • Big is beautiful, fossil fuels dominate
  • Social and environmental concerns are ignored
  • Cost plus incentive structure
  • passes risks to consumers
  • Overcapacity worth 400 billion Baht (from total
    assets of 700 billion Baht and annual turnover of
    240 billion Baht)
  • Prime Minister Thaksin Shinwatra

49
Governance issues
50
Energy policy and its impacts on share prices of
energy companies in the stock market
  • The coup-installed government announced its
    policy on energy investment opportunities on 3
    Oct 2006
  • Energy policy, PDP approval and IPP bidding
    resulted in significant windfall benefits for
    selected companies
  • 1 year later, the share prices of companies
    benefiting from the PDP jumped 66 (other
    companies had a 8.7 rise)

51
Change in energy companies share prices within 1
yr
52
Conflict of interest policy v business
Board of directors
Permanent secretary of ministry of energy
Chairman of PTT Chairman of EGAT Board member of
PTT chemical Chairman of Rayong refinery
Director general,Energy fuel
Dep. permanent secretary
Board member of Thai oil
Board member of RATCH
Dep. permanent secretary
Board member of PTTEP
Dep. permanent secretary
Director general of energy business
Board member of PTT
Director general of Department of Alternative
Energy Development and Efficiency energy
Board member of RATCH
Director of Energy Policy and Planning official
Board member of PTTEP
Senior official of ministry of energy
Board member of Aromatics PLC
Senior official of ministry of energy
Board member of Bang chak
Board member of RATCH Board member of Ratchaburi
generation company
Senior official of ministry of energy
53
Performance of high-level energy officials in
serving the government vs. PTT Plc. (Thai gas/oil
utility, the largest list company in Thailand)
Attendance of PTT board meetings Attendance of Automatic tariff (Ft) mechanism mtgs
Permanent secretary 13/13 4/6
Director of EPPO 8/9 5/6
67
100
90
83
???????????????????. ???. ?? 2546 ?????????????
?????????????????????????? Ft ????????????????????
??????????????? ???????????????????????? (??????
46)
Government officials serve energy companies
better than the Thai public?
54
(No Transcript)
55
Consumption patterns
56
Electrical consumption by sector in 2007
Others 5
Residential 21
Industrial 49
Commercial 25
????????????????????????????????????
133,132 GWh
????? ???.
57
???????????????????????????????????????Distributi
on of electricity consumption by region
South
North
Northeast
Central
Source Figure 19, Statistical Report Fiscal Year
2003 Power Forecast and Statistics Analysis
Department System Control and Operation
Division. Report No. SOD-FSSR-0404-05
58
Comparison of electricity consumption of three
big malls vs. 16 provinces
Siam Paragon
GWh
123
MBK
81
278 GWh
Central World
75
????? ??. ????????????????? ?? 2549
????? ??????????????? 2549
59
Electricity production and consumption (GWh)
Impacts of Pak Mun Dam alone
Source MEA, EGAT, Searin, Graphic Green World
Foundation
Pak Mun
Dams Malls Province
60
?????????????????????????????????????????????Dist
ribution of number of power users energy
consumed
Agricultural pumping
Government
Specific businesses
Large industrial/commercial)
Small industrial/commercial
Small industrial/commercial
Large houses (gt150 kWh/mo)
Small houses (lt150 kWh/mo)
Number of customers
Electricity consumption
????? ??????????????????????????????????? (???
?.?.?. ?????? 3 ?????? 2543)
61
"Nature has enough for our need, but not
enough for our greed." - Gandhi
62
Hourly Power Demand (2002)
gt 1,000 MW in 66 hours
63
Source EPPO, 2007.
64
Load profile on the day of annual highest
consumption Notice the rise of air-conditioning
load
2551
2550
2549
2548
????????? (?????????)
2534
2533
2532
???? (???????)
65
PDP, demand forecastover-investment
66
Power demand projection Sep 2007(PDP 2007
revision 1)
MW
Economic Development Plan (years) Average GDP growth rate/year Average demand growth rate/year
10th plan (2550-2554) 5.0 5.86
11th plan (2555-2559) 5.6 5.95
12th plan (2560-2564) 5.6 5.54
48,958 MW
2,477
2,399
2,287
37,382 MW
2,235
2,178
2,131
2,035
27,996 MW
1,832
Demand increase per year
1,759
1,629
1,361
1,410
1,268
1,444
1,449
2550 2554 average increase 1,386 MW
2555 2559 average increase 1,877 MW
2560 2564 average increase 2,315 MW
????????? ??????? 10
????????? ??????? 11
????????? ??????? 12
????? ???.
67
Planning of capacity additions
(Total capacity requirement peak demand 15
reserve margin)
68
Power Demand Projections vs. Actual 1992
2008If no systemic bias, the chance of
over-projecting demand 12 times in a row should
be 1/4096!!
MW
69
Incentive structure for utilitiesthe more
expansion, the more profits
ROIC Net profit after tax Invested capital EGAT 8.4 MEA PEA
  • Financial criteria for utilities link profits to
    investments
  • Thailand uses outdated return-based regulation
  • WBs promoted financial criteria such as self
    financing ratio (SFR) also have similar effects
  • ROIC (Return on Invested Capital means the more
    you invest, the more profits

4.8
Result Demand forecast have systemic bias
toward over-projections Too many expensive power
projects get built
70
Cycle of over-expansion under the centralized
monopoly system
Deterministic planning based on demand forecast
leads to over-investment in capital-intensive powe
r projects
Power demand (over-)projections
1
2
Utilities Profits
3
Tariff structure that allows pass-through of
unnecessary investments
71
Comparison of trend lines with historical peak
consumption
Exponential
Linear
Past demand trajectory was linear but how come
the official demand projections have always
assumed exponential trend and over-estimated?
72
The government forecast was based on the
assumption of exponential growth
21 power plants
73
(No Transcript)
74
????????????????????????? 15 ???.?.2551 -2565
75
(No Transcript)
76
Supply options Cost estimate (Baht/kWh) Cost estimate (Baht/kWh) Cost estimate (Baht/kWh) Cost estimate (Baht/kWh) Cost estimate (Baht/kWh) Cost estimate (Baht/kWh) Cost estimate (Baht/kWh)
Generation Transmission1 Distribution2 CO2 3 Other envi impacts 4 Social impacts Total
DSM 0.50 1.505 - - - - - 0.50 -1.50
SPP cogeneration (PES gt 10) 2.60 6 - 0.44 0.08 0.71 - 3.83
VSPP (Renewable) Bulk supply tariff ( 2.62) Adder (0.3 8) - 0.44 - 0 0.63 0 low 2.92 10.62
gas CC 2.25 7 0.37 0.44 0.09 0.79 low medium 3.93
Coal 2.11 7 0.37 0.44 0.15 2.76 High 5.82
Nuclear 2.0877.308 0.37 0.44 - 0.15 1.009 High very high 4.04-9.26
???????? 1. ???????????????????????
??? 12.4 ???????????????????????????? 2.
?????????????????????????? 14.5
????????????????????????????? 3. ??? CO2
??? 10 ????/??? 4. ??? Externality
??????????? Extern E ?????????????
??????????????????? GDP ???????????? 5. 5.
The World Bank, Impact of Energy Conservation,
DSM and Renewable Energy Generation on EGATs
PDP, 2005. 6. ?????????? SPP 7.
????? ???. 8. California Public Utilities
Commission (CPUC), 2050 Multi-Sector CO2
Emissions Abatement Analysis Calculator, 2009
9. Cost of liability protection, Journal
Regulation 2002 2003.
77
Time to review govt subsidy to polluting
industries with low value added to economy and
low competitiveness?
BOI investment privileges should take into
account energy and environmental considerations
High energy intensity
Low value added
Low competitiveness
78
Macroeconomic Analysis
Low Quality Education
Low Quality labour
Enabling factors MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
(Low margin/return)
Low Quality for Raw-material, machinery and
equipment
Insufficient inRD Investment
No immunity/ High volatility Financial System
Lack of Saving
Lack of regulation on industrial products
quality control
Low Basic infrastructure and Logistic
development
Slow Technology Development
79
Decentralized generation
  • Decentralized generation generation of
    electricity near where it is used

80
Old way
New way
Power plant
Power plant
Biomass
Wind power
Biomass
Solar
Customers
Energy efficient end-use
81
(No Transcript)
82
Energy waste in a typical pumping system
83
Sankey Energy Flow Diagram
84
CogenerationCombined Heat and Power (CHP)
85


(No Transcript)
86
(No Transcript)
87
Very Small Power Producer (VSPP)
88

89
  • Technical regulations
  • Allowable voltage, frequency, THD variations
  • Protective relays
  • 1-line diagrams for all cases
  • Induction
  • Synchronous
  • Inverters
  • Single/multiple
  • Connecting at different voltage levels (LV or MV)
  • Communication channels
  • Commercial regulations
  • Definitions of renewable energy, and efficient
    cogeneration
  • Cost allocation
  • Principle of standardized tariff determination
  • Invoicing and payment arrangements
  • Arbitration

90
Evolution of Thai VSPP regulations
  • 2002
  • VSPP regulations drafted, approved by Cabinet
  • Up to 1 MW export, renewables only
  • Tariffs set at avoided cost (bulk supply tariff
    FT)
  • 2006
  • Up to 10 MW export, renewables cogeneration
  • Feed-in tariff adder
  • If gt 1 MW then utility only pays for 98 of
    energy
  • 2009
  • Tariff adder increase, more for projects that
    offset diesel

http//www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/ for English
version of regulations, and model PPA
91
Thai VSPP feed-in tariffs
Fuel Adder Additional for diesel offsetting areas Additional for 3 southern provinces Years effective
Biomass Biomass Biomass Biomass Biomass
Capacity lt 1 MW 0.015 0.030 0.030 7
Capacity gt 1 MW 0.009 0.030 0.030 7
Biogas Biogas Biogas Biogas Biogas
lt 1 MW 0.015 0.030 0.030 7
gt 1 MW 0.009 0.030 0.030 7
Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter) Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter) Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter) Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter) Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter)
Fermentation 0.074 0.030 0.030 7
Thermal process 0.104 0.030 0.030 7
Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind
lt 50 kW 0.134 0.045 0.045 10
gt 50 kW 0.104 0.045 0.045 10
Micro-hydro Micro-hydro Micro-hydro Micro-hydro Micro-hydro
50 kW - lt200 kW 0.024 0.030 0.030 7
lt50 kW 0.045 0.030 0.030 7
Solar 0.238 0.045 0.045 10
Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht 0.029762 U.S.
dollars
Tariff adder(s) bulk supply
tariff FT charge Biomass tariff 0.009
0.049 0.027
0.085/kWh
92
Korat Waste to Energy biogas an early Thai
VSPP project
  • Uses waste water from cassava to make methane
  • Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal)
    3 MW of electricity
  • 3 x 1 MW gas generators

93
Biogas from Pig Farms
Reduces air and water pollution Produces
fertilizer Produces electricity 8 x 70 kW
generator Ratchaburi
94
Biogas from Pig Farms
95
Micro hydropower
  • 40 kW
  • Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand

96
Rice husk-fired power plant
  • 9.8 MW
  • Roi Et, Thailand

97
Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV
  • Project size 1 MW
  • Uses self-manufactured a-Si

98
Thai VSPP MW applied, received permission, PPA
signed, and selling as of September 2009
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