Investing in Urban Transport in Asian Cities Accessibility and Mobility at an affordable cost

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Investing in Urban Transport in Asian Cities--
Accessibility and Mobility at an affordable cost
--
Cornie Huizenga Herbert Fabian and Au
Ables CAI-Asia Investing in Asias Urban Future
Ideas Mart 07 February 2007 ADB Headquarters
Manila, Philippines
Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia
Program
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Part 1 Context
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Dhaka, Bangladesh
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Hanoi, Viet Nam
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Manila, Philippines
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Beijing, PRC
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Asian Experience

• Walking and NMT public transport up to 1900
• Shift towards public transport (bus, trams,
  rickshaws) but NMT still dominant 1900 1945
• Emergence individual mobility, first 4 wheels and
  then 2 wheels, for privileged few 1945 1975
• Expansion of individual mobility demand while
  maintaining broad based public transport
  1975-1990
• Explosion of public demand for individual
  mobility, neglect of public transport systems
  1990 2005
• Re-emerging interest in public transport 2005 -

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Urbanization Trends in Asia
Source ADB. 2006. Urbanization and
Sustainability in Asia. Manila, Philippines.
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Economic Growth
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Total Energy Consumption in Asia
Source BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
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Vehicle Growth in Asia(in Millions of Vehicles)
China, P.R.
India
Thailand
Indonesia
Note Vehicle Population Projection from Segment
Y Ltd
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Part 2 What will the future bring?
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Legacy Footprint

• What happens if we adopt the Business-as-Usual
  Scenario (BAU)?
• Emissions - criteria pollutants
• Emissions - CO2
• Road safety in Southeast Asia
• Congestion

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Future PM10 Emissions from the transport sector
Thousand Tons of PM10
China, P.R.
India
Source ADB, 2006
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Future CO2 Emissions from the transport sector
Million Tons of CO2
China, P.R.
India
Source ADB, 2006
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Road Safety Problem in Asia

• Adapting the Business-as-Usual Scenario will
  worsen road safety and result to greater economic
  losses
• Estimating economic losses are highly dependent
  on the Value of Statistical Life used
• In 2003, 75,000 fatalities and 4.7 million
  injured in road crashes amount to annual economic
  losses estimated at 15 billion or 2.2 of
  Southeast Asias total GDP (ADB 2005)
• In 2003, 104,000 people were killed in traffic
  accidents in PRC with an estimated cost of US
  397 M (Chinadaily and Chinatoday)

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Cost of Traffic Congestion

• Estimating costs of traffic congestion is an
  evolving science methodologies vary and some
  may only include value of time and income lost,
  vehicle maintenance, and may exclude the health
  and environmental costs
• In developed countries
• Nearly 3 of GDP (US810 billion) in OECD
  countries
• US68 billion in 2002 in 75 US urban areas
• In Western Europe, gridlock will increase by 188
  on urban roads by 2010
• Situation is worse in Asia
• Cost of congestion in Korea is 4.4 of its GDP
• In Bangkok, cost of congestion can be as high as
  6 of its GDP
• In the Philippines, Php140 billion is lost due to
  congestion (2 of its GDP)

Source Schipper, Lee and Wei-Shiuen Ng. 2006,
December 15. The Role of Market-based Instruments
Road Pricing, Parking Fees and Congestion
Pricing. Presented in Better Air Quality Workshop
2006. Jogjakarta, Indonesia. Philippine National
Statistical Coordination Board and Department of
Transportation and Communications
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Part 3 What is happening in Asia now?
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Modal Choices Current Trends in Policy and
Investments
NMT (incl. Walking and Cycling)
Rail-based
Policy - - - Investments - -
Policy Investments
Busses
Urban Transportation System
Policy Investments - -
Private Transportation
Policy Investments
Para-transit
Policy Investments - - -
Public Transportation
Taxi
Policy Investments -
Policy Investments
3-Wheelers
Policy Investments - - -
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The pedestrian is not valued

• Urban design guidelines for walk-paths are
  absent, and if there were, these are not strictly
  implemented in Asian cities
• The various laws for pedestrians are rarely
  enforced due to insufficient funding for traffic
  police.
• Walking in most Asian cities is dangerous, time
  consuming and extremely unhealthy
• How much do you walk, and how did you get here
  today??

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Private Cars in Asia

• Asian governments perceive automotive industry as
  driver of industrialization and economic
  development
• Recent trend in the development of low cost
  vehicles e.g. smart cars
• Advertising glorifies private car ownership China
  and India
• Cheap car loans bring cars within reach of
  increasingly large(r) groups in the population
• Busses are for losers

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Development banks like to spend money on roads
ADB Transport Lending, 2000-2003 Percentage of
Distribution by Sector
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2- and 3- Wheelers in Asia

• Asia is different from Europe, USA and Japan
  India, China and Thailand
• 2005 125 million
• 2008 170 million
• 2015 300 million
• When will the tipping point be reached after
  which people switch to cars China 2025?
• Asian countries plan either for cars, busses and
  trucks or for NMT 2 Wheelers fall in between
• Parking policies are 4 wheel oriented
• There is no consensus on the role of 2 wheelers
  in transport systems for medium or long term
  future

Note The forecasts used in Figures 2 and 3 were
developed by Segment Y plc (www.segmenty.com)
based on the Goldman Sachs economic forecast in
their Dreaming with BRICs report
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Electric bikes in China

• Despite being banned in some key cities, electric
  bike sales in China increased from about 7.5
  million units in in 2004 to 9.5 million units in
  2005
• This dramatic growth has been largely due to
  legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and
  bicycles, introduced from 1996 onwards in several
  major Chinese cities, including Beijing and
  Shanghai
• There are about 260 companies in China
  manufacturing electric bikes and their components

Note Various sources compiled by John Rogers
(2006)
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Part 4 Sustainable alternatives
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Criteria for transport sustainability

• Financial/Economic
• Mobility of goods, services and people (quantity
  and quality)
• Capital costs
• Operation and Maintenance
• Social
• Poverty
• Gender
• Inclusiveness (disability, age)
• Environmental
• Criteria pollutants (PM, NOX, SO2, HC)
• CO2 emissions

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Modal Choices Ideal Trends for Policy and
Investments
NMT (incl. Walking and Cycling)
Rail-based
Policy Investments
Policy Investments
Busses
Urban Transportation System
Policy Investments
Private Transportation
Policy Investments
Para-transit
Policy Investments
Public Transportation
Taxi
Policy Investments
Policy Investments
3-Wheelers
Policy Investments
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The importance of maintaining NMT share

• Of the 20 million people living in Shanghai, 9
  million travel regularly by bicycle approximately
  200,000 by car. Source Shanghai to Ban
  Bicycling in 2004. 2003, December. Transportation
  Alternatives Bulletin. Available
  http//www.transalt.org/press/askta/031219.html
• PRC Construction Ministry Vice Minister Qiu
  Baoxing said that the ministry firmly opposed the
  practice of cutting back on bike lanes and he had
  ordered the cities to restore them. Source
  Reuters. 2006, June 16. China Urged to Back-Pedal
  on Anti-Bike Policy.

Parked bicycles at Manjing, PRC
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Renewed focus on mass transit

• The Indian Government has issued an urban
  transport policy which calls for re-orientation
  of urban transport with detailed financial
  mechanism backed up by billions of dollars.
• National Development and Reform Commission in
  P.R. China has issued an action program on
  sustainable development. The program plans to
  increase its BRT and rail lines to improve urban
  traffic management.
• Singapore is reviewing its land transport system
  to come up with an urban transport strategy that
  has a specific target on aggressively promoting
  public transport use.
• The Ninth Malaysia Plan likewise gives emphasis
  on urban transport development and is on their
  way of revamping their current public transport
  system. A public transport trust fund, integrated
  transport terminals, and a national commission to
  regulate the overall public transportation system
  will be established.

Transport planning in India has been driven by
class interest in the last decades Give back
the roads to the people - Mr. S. Jaipal Reddy,
Indias Minister of Urban Development, in his
inaugural address
Sources INDIA Indias national urban transport
policy 2006. http//www.urbanindia.nic.in/moud/pro
gramme/ut/nutp.pdf PRC http//en.ndrc.gov.cn/new
srelease/P020070205395147608553.pdf SINGAPORE
Land Transport Authority. 2007, January 11. LTA
To Begin Consultancy Study For Public Transport
Industry Structure Review. http//www.lta.gov.sg/c
orp_info/index_corp_press.htm MALAYSIA Prime
Minister Badawi. 2006, March 31. Full text of
PMs 9MP speech to Parliament. http//thestar.com.
my/news/story.asp?file/2006/3/31/nation/200603311
70915secnation.
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Bus Rapid Transit

• Segregated, median busways with median stations
• Pre-board fare collection and fare verification
• Restricted operator access (closed system)
• Free transfers between corridors
• Competitively bid concessions
• High frequency service and low station dwell
  times
• Clean bus technologies
• Modal integration

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The economics of mass transit
BRT 1-10M/km
Metros 40-220M/km
Planning and Construction Time
TransMilenio SA
BRT 12 - 18 months
Metros 3 30 years
Source Karl Fjellstrom
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Performance capital cost vs. capacity
Source Chang, Jason S.K. 2006, March 22.
Presented in Conference on Alternative
Technologies for Public Transport Conference on
Alternative Technologies for Public Transport.
New Delhi, India
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Options for mass transportation systems
Mass Transit Systems at the same cost (US1
billion)
426 kilometres of BRT
14 kilometres of elevated rail
7 kilometres of subway
US 143 million / km
US 71 million / km
US 2 million / km
Bangkok network simulations by Lloyd Wright

• Overall, more cities in Asia are planning or
  building BRT systems than subways or light rail
  lines

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Bus Rapid Transit in Asia
Systems in operation (17)
Systems in planning or under construction (20)
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Finally
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• We cannot talk about urban transport until we
  know what kind of a city we want, and to talk
  about the kind of city we want, we have to know
  how we want to live.
• -- Enrique Peñalosa
• Once the roads and fly-overs are built, the bike
  paths are taken out and the cars are on the road,
  the metros have been commissioned, .it will
  become increasingly difficult to re-orient
  transport towards a more sustainable path. The
  time to act is now!
• -- Cornie Huizenga ?

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Thank you!

• chuizenga_at_adb.org
• www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia