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Importance and Consequences of the Cold War Wars: 1945-199

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Importance and Consequences of the Cold War Wars: 1945-1990: 150 conflicts, 23 million dead Superpower wars: Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan Proxy Wars / Civil Wars: – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Importance and Consequences of the Cold War Wars: 1945-199


1
Importance and Consequences of the Cold War
  • Wars 1945-1990 150 conflicts, 23 million dead
  • Superpower wars
  • Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan
  • Proxy Wars / Civil Wars
  • Angola, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Somalia,
    Cambodia, Guatemala, Mozambique, Ethiopia
  • Risk of nuclear war
  • Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962
  • Yom Kippur War 1973 (Egypt Syria vs. Israel)
  • Reagan Second Cold War, 1980s

2
On the brink
  • US Deputy Under-Secretary of Defense, 1981 The
    United States could recover from an all-out
    nuclear war with the Soviet Union in just two to
    four years... If there are enough shovels to go
    around, everybodys going to make it. Dig a hole
    in the ground, cover with a couple of doors, and
    then cover the doors with three feet of dirt.
    Its the dirt that does it.
  • T. K.
    Jones

3
Importance and Consequences of the Cold War
  • Risk of nuclear war
  • US war plans, 1982 committed US to fighting and
    winning a nuclear war lasting up to six months
    A war in which the U.S. could prevail and force
    the Soviet Union to seek earliest termination of
    hostilities on terms favorable to the United
    States.

4
  • How did humanity bring itself to the brink of
    self-inflicted catastrophe?
  • How has disaster been avoided - what explains
    the peaceful end of the Cold War?

5
The Cold WarKey Early Events
US dropping of atomic bombs, 1945 (?) US Marshall
Plan Soviet occupations in Eastern Europe -
Poland / Czech coup 1948
6
Cold WarChurchills Iron Curtain speech, 1946
7
The Cold WarKey Early Events
US dropping of atomic bombs, 1945 (?) US Marshall
Plan Soviet occupations in Eastern Europe Truman
Containment policy (1947)
8
Cold WarTruman and Containment
9
The Cold WarKey Early Events
US dropping of atomic bombs, 1945 (?) US Marshall
Plan Soviet occupations in Eastern Europe Truman
Containment policy (1947) Czech coup
1948 Berlin Blockade, 1948-9
10
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11
The Cold WarKey Early Events
US dropping of atomic bombs, 1945 (?) US Marshall
Plan Soviet occupations in Eastern Europe Berlin
Blockade, 1948-9 1st Soviet Atomic bomb test,
1949 NSC-68, 1950
12
Cold WarNSC-68 Korea, 1950
13
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14
The Cold WarKey Early Events
US dropping of atomic bombs, 1945 (?) US Marshall
Plan Soviet occupations in Eastern Europe -
Poland / Czech coup 1948 Berlin Blockade,
1948-9 1st Soviet Atomic bomb test, 1949 NSC-68,
1950 Korean War, 1950 US develops Hydrogen bomb
1952, Soviets 1953
15
Soviet 50 MT Nuclear Weapon, 1961
16
Nuclear Fireball Size Outer Red line Tsar Bomba
test, 1961 50 MT 4.6 km
17
World nuclear tests
18
Nuclear Scare 1950s
19
Nuclear Scare 1950s
20
Nuclear Scare 1950s
21
Importance of the Cold War
22
The Cold WarKey Early Events
US dropping of atomic bombs, 1945 (?) US Marshall
Plan Soviet occupations in Eastern Europe -
Poland / Czech coup 1948 Berlin Blockade, 1948-9
Korean War, 1950 NSC-68 US develops Hydrogen
bomb 1952, Soviets 1953 Soviets Build Berlin
Wall, 1961
23
Cold WarKennedys ich bin ein Berliner speech,
1963
24
Cold WarCuban Missile Crisis, 1962
  • Consider What does the Cuban missile crisis
    demonstrate
  • Nuclear deterrence works (implication go nuclear
    for own security)
  • OR
  • Unacceptable risk of nuclear war (implication
    disarmament)

25
Cold WarCuban Missile Crisis, 1962
26
Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962Overview
  • October 12, 1962
  • Kennedy shown U-2 photos of Soviet missiles in
    Cuba
  • October 22, 1962
  • Kennedy speaks to the nation

27
Cold WarCuban Missile Crisis,1962
28
Cuban Missile CrisisOverview
  • October 12, 1962
  • Kennedy shown U-2 photos of Soviet missiles in
    Cuba
  • October 22, 1962
  • Kennedy speaks to the nation, announces blockade
  • October 28, 1962
  • Khrushchev announces missiles will be removed
  • Kennedy believed chance of nuclear war between 1
    in 3 and even, McNamara 50-50

29
Cuban Missile CrisisLessons
  • Conventional Lesson Nuclear superiority and
    compellence prevailed (realism)
  • Soviets blinked
  • Implications
  • Nuclear Superiority matters
  • Nuclear Arms Race

30
Cuban Missile CrisisLessons
  • Conventional Lesson
  • Nuclear superiority and compellence prevailed
    (realism)
  • New Lessons
  • Risk of nuclear war was higher than realized
  • Misperceptions N readiness local launch
    authority in Cuba
  • Bureaucracy Accidents / Loss of Control
  • Compromise / cooperation / reassurance helped
    resolve crisis, rather than compellence
    (liberalism) US missiles in Turkey
  • US nuclear superiority didnt matter
  • Conclusions
  • Minimum or existential deterrence worked, only
    a few N needed for mutual deterrence, arms race
    unnecessary
  • nuclear weapons also cause of crisis in first
    place made each side more insecure raised
    risks
  • If too terrible to use even one, why have them?
    Paradox of deterrence
  • So, are they worth the risk?

31
Cuban Missile Crisis Aftermath Consequences
  • Soviet N superiority
  • Crisis Management Hot-Line
  • Era of Détente Arms Control
  • Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963)
  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (1968)
  • SALT Treaties (1970s) / BTWC (1975)

32
Final Exam
  • Thursday December 10, 1200
  • Wesbrook Building100

33
Reagan the Second Cold War
  • US President Reagan
  • 1981 calls USSR evil empire and announces plans
    to leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash-heap of
    history
  • 1983 Star Wars speech SDI
  • 1984 (sound check for radio address) My fellow
    Americans. Im pleased to tell you today that
    Ive signed legislation that will outlaw Russia
    forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.

34
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35
Gorbachev and Reagan sign INF Treaty 1987
36
Gorbachev and Bush sign START Treaty 1991
37
End of the Berlin Wall Cold War Hammers, not
Tanks / Missiles
38
End of the Cold War
  • Learning objectives
  • How did it end without major conflict?
  • What lessons do we draw from this major change in
    the international system?
  • Was it due to US military spending bleeding the
    Soviets dry?
  • At stake implications for policy if above is
    correct

39
End of the Cold WarExplanations
  • System Level
  • Balance of Power (Realist) Imperial Over-Stretch
  • Problems What does this leave unexplained?
  • 1) Why was it the USSR and not US that became
    overextended?
  • 2) No great power war to change system anomaly
    for balance of power theory
  • There is nothing in the character or tradition
    of the Russian state to suggest it could ever
    accept imperial decline gracefully. None of the
    over-extended empires ever retreated to their
    own ethnic base until they had been defeated in a
    Great Power war. Paul Kennedy, 1987
  • Timing why 1989?

40
Did Peace Through Strength Work?
  • Reagans Peace Through Strength (Realist)
    Spend Soviets into the ground with SDI and
    massive military budget
  • Problems
  • Reagans policy change agreed to arms control
    agreements
  • Made it almost impossible for Soviet reformers,
    legitimized hard-liners Arbatov
  • End of Cold War came about despite US policies
  • cf. Iranian reformers W. Bushs axis of evil
  • Soviet reasons for policy changes
  • Dobrynin It was not the strain of matching
    Reagans huge arms build-up that led to the
    collapse of the Soviet Empire. The troubles in
    our economy were the result of our own internal
    contradictions. (Marxist/Critical)

41
End of the Cold WarExplanations
  • Domestic Level
  • Soviet Union
  • Economic decay
  • Dissent and challenges to ideological legitimacy
  • Eastern Europe
  • Civil Society People Power mobilizing
    dissident groups (bottom-up explanations)
  • Berlin Wall
  • Lech Walesa Solidarity, Poland
  • Vaclav Havel Civic Forum, Czechoslovakia

42
Civil Society People Power and the Velvet
Revolution, Czechoslovakia, 1989
43
End of the Cold WarExplanations
  • Domestic Level Soviet / European domestic
    factors
  • People Power Civil Society in Eastern Europe,
    mobilizing dissident groups
  • Puzzle Why werent these efforts crushed with
    force?

44
Vaclav Havel and Czechoslovakia, 1989
45
End of the Cold WarExplanations
  • Individual level Gorbachev
  • Domestic Reform Glasnost Perestroika
  • Foreign policy
  • Strategy
  • Common security
  • Reasonable Sufficiency
  • Sinatra doctrine

46
Gorbachev Initiatives
  • Foreign policy
  • 1987 INF Agreement / Test Ban Moratorium
  • Unilateral reduction of 500,000 troops
  • Announce withdrawal from Afghanistan Feb. 88,
    complete by Jan. 89
  • May 89 Sino-Soviet summit
  • 1990-91 Gulf War UN Security Council
    authorization
  • May 91 established relations with Israel
  • May 91 Cubans out of Angola

47
Gorbachev effects
  • Europe
  • June 89 elections in Poland (1990 Walesa
    President)
  • Feb. 89 independent parties in Hungary May 89
    border barricades w/Austria removed EGermans
    flee to WGer via Hungary Sept. 89 elections
    Mar/Apr. 90
  • Oct. 6 89 Gorbachev visits East Germany
    Policies which affect the GDR are decided not in
    Moscow but in Berlin.
  • Nov. 9, 89 Berlin Wall falls
  • Gorbachev accepts principle of reunification Jan.
    90 elections Mar. 90 Oct. 3, 90 German
    unification Warsaw Pact dead by Mar. 91
  • Havel elected President of Czechoslovakia Dec.
    89
  • Communist leader Ceausescu overthrown by force in
    Romania, Dec. 89 elections May 90 won by
    Illiescus National Salvation Front
  • Internal Soviet empire
  • 1989-91 fifteen Soviet republics declare
    sovereignty, then independence
  • June 91 Yeltsin elected President of Russia
  • Aug. 91 attempted coup Dec. 91 Gorbachev
    resigns (Nobel Peace Prize 1990)

48
Power of Civil Society Failed Russian Coup 1991
49
Power of Civil Society Failed Russian Coup 1991
50
Lessons Implications of the End of the Cold
War
  • Can major economic reform (towards capitalism)
    take place without accompanying political reform
    towards greater democracy?
  • China
  • Civil Society People Power Global spread of
    democratic ideas
  • 1989-90 EEurope / Soviet Union

51
Lessons Implications of the End of the Cold
War
  • Civil Society People Power
  • 1989-90 EEurope / Soviet Union
  • October Revolution Serbia 2000
  • Orange Revolution Ukraine (Dec 2004)
  • But

52
Lessons Implications of the End of the Cold
War
  • Civil Society People Power
  • 1989-90 EEurope / Soviet Union
  • October Revolution Serbia 2000
  • Orange Revolution Ukraine (Dec 2004)
  • But
  • Saffron Revolution Burma 2007
  • Iran election protests 2009
  • Global spread of democratic ideas
  • Transnational activist networks technology

53
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54
Lessons Implicatoins of the End of the Cold
War
  • 3) Who won and why?
  • US won / USSR lost
  • Due to aggressive US policy of militarized
    containment (realism)
  • Is this right in this case? Even if so, will it
    work to apply in other contexts?

55
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56
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57
Lessons Implicatoins of the End of the Cold
War
  • 3) Who won and why?
  • US won / USSR lost
  • Due to aggressive US policy of militarized
    containment (realism) OR
  • Despite this strategy which prolonged the cold
    war and at unnecessary cost
  • Ideas individual leadership (liberalism)
  • Internal contradictions (critical theory)
  • Inevitable superiority of capitalism democracy
    (liberalism)?
  • End of History - Fukuyama

58
Lessons of the Cold War
  • The Sources of Soviet Conduct, 1947, Foreign
    Affairs
  • X (George Kennan)
  • it is clear that the main element of any US
    policy toward the USSR must be that of a
    long-term, patient but firm and vigilant
    containment of Russian expansive tendencies. It
    is importantthat such a policy has nothing to do
    with outward histrionics with threats or
    blustering or superfluous gestures of outward
    toughness.

59
The Sources of Soviet Conduct, 1947X (George
Kennan)
  • If anything were ever to disrupt the unity and
    efficacy of the Communist Party as a political
    instrument, Soviet Russia might be changed
    overnight from one of the strongest to one of the
    weakest and most pitiable of national societies
    Soviet powerbears within it the seeds of its own
    decay, and the sprouting of these seeds is well
    advanced.
  • To avoid destruction, the US need only measure
    up to its own best traditions and prove itself
    worthy of preservation as a great nation

60
Lessons of the Cold War
  • Why was the Cold War not hot? Did nuclear
    weapons keep the peace?
  • If so, would suggest the advantages of nuclear
    proliferation (implication obtain WMD).
  • If not, their risks might outweigh their
    advantages (non-proliferation).
  • Implications Do nuclear weapons other WMD
    provide security?
  • Do they prevent (nuclear/conventional) war?
  • Will they be used? Why or why not? Why havent
    WMD been used more often?
  • Are they counterproductive for state security in
    an era of terrorism?
  • Is the use / possession of nuclear weapons
    morally acceptable?

61
A Nuclear Revolution?
We knew the world would not be the same ...I am
become death, the destroyer of worlds Robert
Oppenheimer
62
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63
Has there been a nuclear (WMD) revolution?
  • "The unleashed power of the atom has changed
    everything save our modes of thinking, and thus
    we drift toward unparalleled catastrophe.
  • Albert Einstein, 1946
  • Was he right?
  • Or has humanity adapted and learned?

64
Effects of nuclear weapons
65
Effects of Nuclear Weapons
66
The Power of Nuclear Weapons
  • Hiroshima 15-20 kilotons (atomic bomb)
  • Todays nuclear weapons
  • 1 Ohio (Trident ) Submarine
  • 24 Trident missiles 8475 kilotons (8 megatons)
    each
  • Each sub 6,080 Hiroshima bombs
  • US has 14 Trident subs

67
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
68
One-megaton nuclear explosion
  • Source Mansbach, Global Puzzle, 2nd edition, p.
    377

69
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
  • Nuclear / Radiological
  • Chemical Weapons (CW)
  • Biological Weapons (BW)

70
Biological Weapons
71
Use of WMD
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Hiroshima Nagasaki, 1945
  • Chemical Weapons
  • WWI / Italy in Ethiopia 1937 / Iraq vs.
    Iran/Kurds 1980s
  • Terrorist attempts
  • Japan 1995 (Sarin)
  • Biological Weapons
  • Japan in Manchuria, 1930s
  • Terrorist attempts
  • US anthrax 2001

72
Puzzles Why WMD Restraint?
  • Why havent nuclear, chemical and biological
    weapons been used more frequently?

73
Explaining the Non-Use of WMD
  • Realism
  • Deterrence Fear of Retaliation
  • Interests (utility) Only useless weapons
    restrained / technical obstacles
  • Cicero inter arma silent leges'

74
Laws of War
75
Laws of War
76
Explaining the Non-Use of WMD
  • Realism Problems
  • Why no WMD use when WMD state in war vs. non-WMD
    state?
  • Why no US nuclear use in Korea, Vietnam, Gulf
    War, Iraq when faced no nuclear retaliation? UK
    Falklands / USSR Afghanistan. No mutual
    deterrence, but still no use.
  • Why no CW use by US in Vietnam? By USSR in
    Afghanistan?
  • Questionable Utility/technical limitations
  • Best for BW
  • False for CW/N
  • E.g, WWI used massively / modern CW
  • US assessment of CW utility vs. Japan 1945

77
Explaining WMD Restraint
  • Neo-liberalism (rationalism) Cooperation
    Compliance with treaties.
  • Self-interest and Reciprocity
  • Treaty Verification and Compliance (to overcome
    cheating)
  • Geneva Protocol 1925 / Chemical Weapons
    Convention (CWC 1997)
  • Biological Toxins Weapons Convention (BTWC 1975)

78
Compliance and International Law USSR
Biological Weapons Convention
79
Explaining WMD Restraint
  • Realism Deterrence (fear of retaliation)
  • Problem Many cases of non-use with no fear of
    retaliation
  • Neo-liberalism (rationalism) Treaties
  • Verification and Compliance
  • CWC, BTWC, NPT
  • Problems
  • Cheating (realism)
  • USSR and BTWC
  • Iraq, Iran, North Korea and NPT
  • Non-parties - Pakistan, India, Israel, NKorea
    withdrew 2003
  • BUT even non-parties and cheaters on possession
    have mostly not used their WMD
  • There is no international treaty prohibiting the
    use of nuclear weapons Nuclear Weapons
    Convention Global Zero?

80
Explaining WMD Restraint
  • Constructivism Power of Moral Norms and Identity
  • Personal belief
  • I / we just dont do that kind of thing
  • International / domestic costs of breaking taboos
  • Reputation (social power, not material)

81
Moral Norm vs. CW
  • WWII
  • US President Roosevelt I have been loath to
    believe that any nation could be willing to loose
    upon mankind such terrible and inhumane weapons.
    . . I state categorically that we shall under no
    circumstances resort to the first use of such
    weapons...
  • British Major-General Henderson such a
    deplorable departure from our principles and
    traditions would make us wonder if it mattered
    which side won.

82
Moral Norm vs. Nuclear Weapons
  • Korea
  • General Ridgway N as the ultimate in
    immorality
  • Truman I could not bring myself to order the
    slaughter of 25 million
  • Vietnam - Sec. of State Rusk We never seriously
    considered using nuclear weapons
  • Iraq, 1991 - Colin Powell Lets not even think
    about nukes. You know were not going to let
    that genie loose.

83
Explaining WMD Restraint
  • (Liberal) Constructivism Power of Moral Norms
    and Identity
  • Problems
  • While states and decision-makers are socialized
    by norms or abide by them for their own
    interests, (suicidal) terrorists not constrained
    by norms.

84
Implications of WMD
  • So where to from here? Should / can the
    proliferation of nuclear weapons be stopped? If
    so, how? What are the implications for dealing
    with terrorism?
  • Realism Spread of nuclear weapons is
  • Inevitable

85
  • Wouldnt you know it? Now the Hendersons have the
    bomb.

86
The Davy Crockett
  • smallest nuclear device ever deployed
  • 76 lbs.
  • 1.25 to 2.5 mile range
  • variable yield (10 to 20 tons TNT)
  • deployed 1961-71

87
Implications of WMD
  • Realism - Spread of WMD is
  • Inevitable
  • Desirable (Mearsheimer) Cold War -gt India
    Pakistan
  • Con
  • Not inevitable
  • Only 9 nuclear states (due to treaty verification
    / power of nuclear taboo)
  • Many states reversed nuclear arsenals and
    programs
  • Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, South Africa /
    Brazil, Argentina, Taiwan, etc.
  • Not desirable Risks
  • Assumes rationality
  • Risk of accidental nuclear war / loss of control
    (Bureaucracies / Organizational Theory /
    Misperceptions)
  • Human or technical error -gt accidental /
    unauthorized detonation

88
  • Hey! What does that clown think hes doing?

89
Dangers of Nuclear Proliferation
  • Organizational Theory (Domestic level,
    bureaucracy) Individual level
  • Pro-proliferation argument assumes rationality
  • Risk of accidental nuclear war / loss of control
  • Human or technical error
  • Accidental detonation
  • False alerts

90
Threat of Nuclear AccidentsNorwegian Rocket
Incident, 1995
91
Dangers of Nuclear Proliferation
  • Organizational Theory (Domestic level,
    bureaucracy) individual level
  • Proliferation as stability argument assumes
    rationality
  • Risk of accidental nuclear war
  • Human or technical error -
  • accidental detonation
  • false alerts
  • Loss of control Command and control
  • Smuggling, theft, loss of materials or weapons -gt
    use by terrorists
  • 1500 incidents 1993-2008, 30 occurred 1993-95

92
Significant cases of nuclear smuggling 1992-95
  • 1992 1.5 kg of highly enriched (90) uranium
    stolen in Podolsk, Russia
  • July 1993 1.8 kg of enriched (36) uranium
    stolen from naval base in Andreeva Guba, Russia
  • November 1993 4.5 kg of enriched (20) uranium
    from naval base in Severomorsk, Russia
  • May 1994 6.15 g of highly purified (99.75)
    plutonium discovered by German police in garage
    of a businessman in Tengen, Germany
  • June 1994 800 mg of highly enriched (87.7)
    uranium powder bought by undercover agents in
    Landshut, Germany
  • August 1994 363 g of weapons-grade plutonium
    and 200 g of lithium seized in suitcase in Munich
    airport
  • December 1994 2.72 kg of highly enriched
    (87.7) uranium discovered in back seat of a car
    in Prague, Czech Republic
  • June 1995 2 kg enriched (2-4) uranium to be
    bought in sting operation in Moscow shootout
    prevents seizure or arrests
  • November 1995 Chechen rebels place small amount
    of Cesium-137 in Ismailovsky Park, Moscow

Source Frontline, Loose Nukes
93
Dangers of WMD ProliferationSuitcase bombs
94
Implications of WMD
  • Can or should proliferation of WMD be stopped?
  • Realism Proliferation of N inevitable /
    desirable
  • Critics Not inevitable / Risks of proliferation
  • Human / Technical Error
  • Loss of Control
  • Smuggling / Terrorism
  • Implications and Prescriptions of dangers of
    proliferation
  • Cooperative Threat Reduction Programs / G-8
    Global Partnership Against the Spread of WMD
  • 20 billion over 10 years to secure Russian
    nuclear materials (Canada pledged 650 million)

95
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96
What kind of world ought we strive to live in?
Is that world possible?
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