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Title: The Trajectory of Terrorism 19902030 Presentation by Alex P. Schmid, Director Centre for the Study o


1
The Trajectory of Terrorism 1990-2030
Presentation by Alex P. Schmid, Director
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political
Violence (CSTPV), Netherlands Institute for
International Relations Clingendael, Prinses
Juliana Kazerne Conference Challenging
Uncertainties The Future of the Netherlands
Armed Forces 16th - 17th December 2008
2
Table 1 Ten Most Important Trends for the Future
of Terrorism according to Proteus Think Tank
(February 2008)
  • The Economy of the Developed World is on Path to
    Grow for at least the next five years
  • Militant Islam continues to spread and gain power
  • The Worlds population is on course to reach 9.2
    billion by 2050.
  • Technology increasingly dominates both the
    economy and society.
  • Privacy, once a defining right for Americans, is
    dying quickly
  • The global economy is growing more integrated
  • Urbanization, arguably the worlds oldest trend,
    continues rapidly
  • The internet continues to grow, but at a slower
    pace.
  • Advanced communication technologies are changing
    the way we work and live
  • The United States is ceding its scientific and
    technical leadership to other countries.

Source Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies. 55.
Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism. The
Proteus Trend Series, Vol. 1, Issue 2, February
2008
3
Table 2 Sample of Expert Predictions from
July 2007 for 2007/08
A. de Borchgraveit is just a matter of time. My
assumption is it will be a weapon of mass
destruction M. Cetron If they want to do a
bioweapons attack they would be in a perfect
position to do that W. Phares …the next few
months are crucial as they precede the
presidential campaign year of 2008 P.L.
Williams …bin Laden is planning to conduct an
attack on seven to ten cities simultaneously.
Source Terrorism Open Source Intelligence Report
(TOSIR), No. 289, 26 July 2007
4
Table 3 Revised Academic Consensus Definition of
Terrorism
1. Terrorism refers on the one hand to a doctrine
about the presumed effectiveness of a special
form or tactic of  fear-generating, coercive
political violence  and, on the other hand, to a
conspiratorial practice of calculated,
demonstrative, direct violent action without
legal or moral restraints, performed for its
propagandistic and psychological effects on
various audiences and conflict parties 2.
Terrorism as a tactic is employed in three main
contexts (i) illegal state repression, (ii)
propagandistic agitation by non-state actors in
times of peace or outside zones of conflict and
(iii) as a illicit tactic of irregular warfare 
employed by state- and non-state actors.
Source A.P. Schmid, Handbook of Terrorism
Research, London, Routledge, forthcoming 2009.
5
Table 4 Forms of Political Violence
other than Terrorism
  • Blockade/Public property damage/
    looting/arson/sabotage
  • Violent demonstration/Mob violence/rioting
  • Raid//Banditry/Brigandry/ warlordism
  • Torture/mutilation/mass rape
  • Summary extra-judicial execution/massacre
  • Disappearances ( kidnapping torture/maiming
    murder)
  • Ethnic cleansing/ purge/pogrom
  • Rebellion/Revolt/Peasant uprising/ Urban
    insurrection/National liberation
  • struggle/Guerrilla warfare
  • Resistance to invasion/occupation by Partisan
    warfare
  • (Elite) coup d'etat/(mass) revolution
  • Civil war/armed intra-state conflict with, or
    without, state participation
  • Ethnocide/Politicide/Genocide/Democide

Source    A.P. Schmid. Handbook of Terrorism
Research. London, Routledge, forthcoming 2009.
6
Table 5 Historical Evolution of Technology
  • Fire/Arson Spanish Inquisition
  • Dagger/Blade Sicarii, Assassins, French
    Revolution
  • Bombing Gunpowder plot, Anarchists and many
    others
  • Handgun Anarchists, Russian Peoples Will
  • Hijacking Cuban, Palestinians and many
    others(1960s)
  • Hostage Taking Japanese Embassy in Peru
    1996/1997
  • Vehicle Bombings Hezbollah (1980s)
  • Suicide Bombing LTTE, Hamas et al (1980s)
  • Chemical Aum Shinrikyo (1995)
  • Biological Anthrax Letters (2001)

7
Table 6 Terrorist Tactics, based on 25,303
terrorist events, 1968-2004
of all events of all casualties Bombs
53.4 70.1 Guns 19.9 23.0 Arson
9.8 2.7 Remote control bombs 1.9
4.7 Knives other blades
1.3
2.1 Chemical
0.2
0.59 Biological
0.08
0.02 Other
13.3
8.1 Total
100.0
100.0
Source p.49.Kenneth T. Bogen and Edwin D. Jones.
Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide
Terrorism 1968-2004. Risk Analysis Vol. 26,
No.1, 2006. Data utilized are from RAND-MIPT.
Incidents until 1997 include only international
terrorism.
8
Table 7 Terrorist Incidents Worldwide
Source MIPT (domestic and international) It
should be noted that MIPT does not count
civilians killed by governments.
9
Table 8 Death in Current Armed Conflicts
Democratic Republic of the Congo, since 1990
4,000,000 Sudan since 1983 2,000,000 Afghani
stan since 1978 1,500,000 Uganda since
1987 500,000 Somalia since 1988
400,000 Sudan/Darfur since 2003
400,000 Burundi since 1993 300,000 Algeria
since 1992 200,000 Colombia since
1964 200,000 Philippines since 1971
150,000 Israel/Palestine since 1948
120,000 Sri Lanka since 1948 100,000
Source Mitchell Beazley. Where We Are Now.
London, Octopus Publ. Group, 2008, p.103.
10
Table 9 Terrorist Incidents Worldwide in 2005
and 2006 according to US National Counter
Terrorism Center
Source US National Counter Terrorism Centre as
quoted in US Department of State. Country Reports
on Terrorism and Patterns of Global Terrorism.
Washington, DC, Office of the Coordinator for
Counterterrorism, 21 March 2007, p.3 available
at www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2006/82739.htm,
consulted on 04/05/2007
11
Table 10 Terrorist Logistical Success
1968-2007   
  Source ITERATE, calculated by Peter Flemming
12
Table 11 Non-State Terrorism in 1970
Types of Incidents
  • Palestinian extremists sabotage and hijack
    airliners
  • Urban guerrillas in Latin America regularly
    kidnap foreign diplomats, demanding the release
    of their imprisoned comrades, first in Latin
    America, then in Europe and the Middle East
  • First terrorist groups appeared in Europe and
    Japan
  • Terrorist bombings became increasingly common

Source Brian Michael Jenkins. Unconquerable
Nation. Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening
Ourselves. St. Monica, RAND, 2006, p. 6. 10
13
Table 12 Non-State Terrorism since 1970
Types of Incidents
  • Attack on Olympic games 1972
  • Embassy party taken hostage in Lima
  • Bombs on trains and subways in Paris, Moscow,
    Madrid, Manila, London
  • Nerve gas attack in Tokyos subways
  • Truck bomb explosions in centre of London and
    Oklahoma
  • Suicide bombers walking into restaurants,
    shopping malls, buses, hotel lobbies
  • Trucks full of explosives driven into embassies,
    synagogues and mosques
  • Jumbo jets blown from the sky surface-to-air
    missiles fired at civilian airliners
  • Hijacked planes flown into skyscrapers.

Source Brian Michael Jenkins. Unconquerable
Nation. Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening
Ourselves. St. Monica, RAND, 2006, p. 6. 10
14
Table 13 New Elements in New Terrorism
  • Attempts to acquire Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Religious Fanaticism
  • Catastrophic Terrorism
  • Border Porosity
  • Global Communication
  • Diaspora Bridgeheads (Portable conflicts)
  • Kamikaze Suicide Terrorism
  • Expansion of Range of Targets (Tourists, ICRC,
    UN)
  • Links with Organized Crime
  • New Sources of Financing
  • Failed and weak states as de facto safe havens
  • New types of weapons (e.g. MANPADs)

15
Table 14 Terrorist Incidents before after 9/11
Before 9/11 After
9/11 Armed Attacks 644 6185 Arson
Events 315 563 Assassinations 492 12
60 Barricades/Hostage Takings - 41
26 Bombings 3236
11,409 Hijackings - 28
14 (inc. 9/11) Kidnappings 373
1268 By other means
99
561
Source Source Mitchell Beazley. Where We Are
Now. London, Octopus Publ. Group, 2008, p.115
based mainly on MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base.
16
Table 15 Civilian Deaths from Terrorist Attacks,
1990 2007
1990 1994 1,365 1995-1999 4,328
2000- 2004 15,532 2005 2008
(incomplete) 27,191 Total 48,416
Source Source Mitchell Beazley. Where We Are
Now. London, Octopus Publ. Group, 2008, p.115
based mainly on MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base.
17
Table 16 Incidents by Region 1998 -
03/03/2008 


Source MIPT, at http//www.tkb.org, as of
03/03/2008
18
Table 17 Targets of Planned, Foiled and Failed
Terrorist Attacks outside Europe, 1993-2006
Symbolic targets biblical sites Pope White
House Statue of
Liberty. Major events soccer stadium,
apartment buildings. Common people American
school soccer stadia tourist places
Westerners. Government United Nations
FBI CIA headquarters Capitol. Transport
New York Subway airports US navy
ship. Business banks. Infrastructu
re NY tunnels UK Tower bridge pipelines
oil refinery nuclear power plant.
19
Table 18 European Targets of 44 Planned,
failed and Foiled Jihadist Terrorist Attacks,
1994-2006
Symbolic targets Eiffel Tower church
synagogue. Major events G-7 meeting
world soccer cup final. Common people
Christmas market, shopping centre nightclub
funeral
of Pope. Government embassies, Ministry of
Defense house of parliament, supreme
court. Transport airport
aircraft trains passenger ships
subway. Business Trade
centre. Infrastructure nuclear power
plant air force base computer backup server
centre.
20
Table 19 Casualty Rates of Major Al Qaeda
related/inspired Terrorist Attacks
Killed Wounded 8/7 1998 Attacks on US
embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salam 224
4,000 9/11 2001 Attacks on US targets, incl.
WTC, with four airplanes 2.998 6.291 10/12
Bomb attacks in Bali on Western Tourists 202
209 11/15 2004 Two attacks in Istanbul on Jewish
synagogues 25 300 11/20 2004
Attack on British consulate in Istanbul
27 450 3/11 2004 Ten bombs
explode in four trains in Madrid 192
1.800 7/7/2005 Attack on London underground and
bus 52 700 11/09
2005 Amman bombing
57 96
Source Spiegel Jahrbuch 2003. Hamburg
Muenchen, Der Spiegel Verlag/ Deutscher
TaschenbuchVerlag, 2003, pp. 538-543 Spiegel
Spezial. Terror der Krieg des 21. Jahrhunderts.
Hamburg, Der Spiegel, 2/2004, pp. 55Der Fischer
Weltalmanach 2005. Frankfurt a. M., Fischer
Verlag, 2004, p.434.
21
Table 20 Number of Incidents and Casualties of
Major Al Qaeda Central Attacks
Year Incidents Killed
Wounded Total Casualties 1995
1 7 60 67 1996 0 0 0 0 1997
1 68 24 92 1998 2 224 4077 4301 1999
1 1 0 1 2000 1 17 39 56 2001
1 2998 6291 9289 2002
6 31 112 143 2003 4 97 429 526 2004
5 62 206 268 2005 5 46 89 135 2006
7 6 37 43 2007 1 24 50 74 2008
0 0 0 0 Totals 35 3581 11414
14995
Source Data calculated by B. McAllister, CSTPV
22
Table 21 Locations of al-Qaeda Central
Attacks, 1998 - 2007
Year Location 1998 Kenya, Tanzania 1999
India 2000 Yemen 2001 United States 2002
Pakistan, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan, Kenya 2003
Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Indonesia 2004 Syria,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Spain, Iraq 2005
Egypt, Israel, Jordan, UK, Iraq 2006 Algeria,
Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Iraq 2007 Pakistan,
Iraq
Source Data calculated by B. McAllister, CSTPV
23
Table 22 Al Qaedas Strategic Goals as of
mid-2005 (Ayman al-Zawahiri)
Stage 1 Expel the Americans from Iraq Stage 2
Establish an Islamic authority or emirate, then
develop it and support it until
it achieves the level of caliphate Stage
3 Extend the jihad wave to the secular
countries neighbouring Iraq Stage
4 (maybe coinciding with what came before)
the clash with Israel
24
Table 23 Al Qaedas Twenty-Years Grand Plan
Phase 1 (2001-2003) The Awakening awake the
Islamic nation from its state of hibernation by
causing United States to "act chaotically. Phase
2 (20032006) Eye-Opening turn Iraq into a
recruiting ground for young men eager to attack
America conduct electronic jihad Phase 3
(2007-2010) Arising and Standing Up Al Qaeda
focus of struggle on Syria and Turkey, also begin
of confrontation with Israel Phase 4 (2011-2013)
Al Qaeda to bring about demise of Arab
governments, continued attacks on oil industry,
electronic attacks to undermine U.S. economy,
bringing about the collapse of the dollar by
promoting gold as exchange medium Phase 5
(2014-2016) declaration of Islamic caliphate
leading to change of int. balance of power by
seeking new economic allies such as China Phase 6
(2017-2020) total confrontation the now
established caliphates Islamic Army will
achieve definitive victory.
Source Lawrence Wright. The Master Plan. For the
new theorists of jihad, Al Qaeda is just the
beginning. The New Yorker , September 11, 2006,
pp.7-8 at http//www.newyorker.com/archive/2007/
09/11/060911fa_fact3?cur..., as of 08/10/2008.
25
Table 24 Progress of Al Qaeda on the Path to a
Caliphate
  • Stay alive and active and show that jihad against
    Crusaders and Zionists is a feasible strategy
  • Transform Al Qaeda from a militant group into a
    political movement
  • Portray the GWOT as a war on Islam
  • Trap the United States in bleeding wars
  • Overthrow the government of Pakistan
  • Crusaders and Zionist armies to leave Muslim
    lands defeated after the collapse of their
    economies.
  • Attack with weapon of mass destruction to make
    USA isolationist.
  • Provoke war between USA and Iran and Israel and
    Saudi Arabia
  • Overthrow of all apostate rulers in Muslim
    countries
  • Recover every stolen Islamic land from Palestine
    to al-Andalus and other Islamic lands that were
    lost
  • Reunite the Ummah and establishment of a
    Caliphate
  • Introduction of Salafism and Sharia law
    everywhere.

Source Various,incl. Bruce Reidel. The Search
for Al Qaeda. Its Leadership, Ideology, and
Future. Washington, D.C. Brookings Institution
Press, 2008, pp.34, 53,113, 121, 124.
26
Table 25 Future of Terrorism according to US
Homeland Security Advisory Council, January 2007
- Selected Findings
  • Terrorism is a tactic that can be employed by any
    adversary. Potential threats can come from
    unexpected as well as familiar directions.
  • Future of terrorism will depend, in large part,
    on use accessibility of technology
  • Future of terrorism will be affected in part by
    the mobility of people.
  • Future of terrorism will be shaped by our actions
    in defending against terrorism
  • Understanding the future of terrorism requires
    our understanding trends and developments in a
    wide range of areas.
  • The most significant terrorist threat to the
    homeland today stems from a global movement,
    underpinned by a jihadist/Salafist ideology

Source Homeland Security Advisory Council.
Report of the Future of Terrorism Task Force.
Washington , DC, DHS, January 2007, pp. 3-5.
27
Table 25a Future of Terrorism according to US
Homeland Security Advisory Council, January 2007
- Selected Findings cont.
  • Core of al Qaeda is resilient and resurgent,
    remains a threat to USA.
  • A more pressing threat will be the wider
    movement inspired by al Qaeda .
  • While difficult to measure with precision, al
    Qaedas ideology is spreading
  • Threat of state-sponsored terrorism will not
    disappear.
  • Internet has become a major facilitator of
    terrorism, spreading jihadist ideology
  • Alienation of Muslim populations in the West
    major component in spread of
  • jihadist ideology.

Source Homeland Security Advisory Council.
Report of the Future of Terrorism Task Force.
Washington , DC, DHS, January 2007pp. 3-5.
28
Table 26 Terrorism 2015 US Dept. of Homeland
Security workshop some views expressed
  • Al Qaeda will rely more on Western radicalized
    Muslims to assist in future attacks
  • Greatest threat to the United States in 2015 will
    be form groups operating out of Europe
  • Next decade may see an increase in technology
    assisted terrorism
  • The United States should be prepared to see a
    surge of sleeper cells over the next ten years

Source http//www.hklaw.com/content/maritime/mard
ocs/Workshop_2015.pdf
29
Table 27 The CBRN Threat of Terrorism
Fact or Fiction?
Radiological trafficking in radio-isotopes but
no incidents Nuclear trafficking in plutonium
and highly enriched uranium but no incidents
with improvised, stolen or sold nuclear
device Chemical Sarin attack in Tokyos subway
system in April 1005 12 killed, dozens
wounded Biological Anthrax attack in USA 2001
5 killed, 22 infected
30
Table 28 Terroristic Catastrophe Scenarios of US
Department of Homeland Security
  • Detonation of a 10 kiloton nuclear device by
    terrorists
  • a biological attack with aerosolized anthrax
  • an outbreak of pneumonic plague
  • a flu pandemic originating in South Asia
  • the release of a chemical agent over a football
    stadium
  • an attack on an oil refinery
  • the explosion of a chlorine tank
  • three cesium-137 dirty bombs detonated in three
    different cities
  • the explosion of improvised explosive devices in
    sports arenas and emergency rooms
  • the contamination of ground beef by liquid
    anthrax.

Cit. Philip Bobbitt.. Terror and Consent. The
Wars for the Twenty-First Century. London,
Allen Lane, 2008, p. 234
31
Table 29 Homeland Security Planning Scenarios
2004
1. Nuclear Detonation Can vary
widely 2. Biological Attack
13,000 fatalities
injuries 3. Biological Disease Outbreak (Pandemic
Flu) 87,0000 fatalities, 300,000
hospitalized 4. Biological Attack Plague
2,500
fatalities7,000 injuries 5. Chemical Attack
Blister Agent 150
fatalities 70,000 hospitalized 6. Chemical
Attack Toxic Indust. Chemicals 350
fatalities1,000 hospitalizations 7. Chemic
al Attack Nerve Agent
6,000 fatalities 350 injuries 8. Chem. Attack
Chlorine Tank Explosion 17,500 fatalities
10,000 injuries 9. Radiological Attach RDD
180 fatalities20,000
contaminations 10. Explosive Attack IED
Bombing 100 fatalities 450
hospitalizations 11. Biological attack Food
Contamination 300 fatalities 400
hospitalizations
32
Table 30 Seven Key Drivers of Global Change
(from Global Trends 2015)
  • Demographics
  • Natural resources and the environment
  • Science and technology
  • The global economy and globalization
  • National and international governance
  • Future conflict
  • The role the United States

Source Robert L. Hutchings, Chairman of the US
National Intelligence council in introduction to
National Intelligence Council. Mapping the Global
Future Report of the National Intelligence
Council s 2020 Project. Washington, D.C., NIC,
2005, .p 2
33
Table 31 Key Drivers of Global Trends 2025 A
Transformed World
  • Globalization
  • Demography
  • Rise of New Powers
  • Decay of International Institutions
  • Climate Change
  • Geopolitics of Energy

Source US National Intelligence Council.
Global Trends 2025. A Transformed World
Washington, D.C. , GPO, November 2008 (NIC
2008-003).
34
Table 32 Key Drivers of Radicalisation,
according to Global Futures Forum
  • Mass communication and propaganda
  • Western responses to radicalisation
  • Governance in target countries
  • Western dominance (both real and perceived)
  • State-to-state tensions
  • Religion (and its relationship to politics)
  • Government responsiveness (civil society)
  • Immigration and demographics
  • Us- vs. -Them identity politics
  • New ideologies
  • Resources (scarcities, conflicts over )
  • Violence (associated with extremism)

Global Futures Forum. Radical Worlds of 2020.
Imagining the Futures of Radicalisation. The
Hague, 12-14 December 2007, pp. 54.
35
Table 33 Factors Facilitating Future Terrorism,
according to Brynar Lia (2005)
  • Resilience and longevity of the international
    jihadist networks
  • unipolar exclusionist and interventionist world
    order
  • weak transitional states
  • non-state actors in global politics
  • globalisation of organized crime
  • Middle East oil dependence
  • Migration and ethnic heterogenisation of Western
    societies
  • Growing information interconnectedness
  • Proliferation of deadly technologies
  • Out-of-area spill-over from ongoing armed
    conflicts

SourceBrynjar Lia. Globalisation and the Future
of Terrorism. Patterns and Predictions. London,
Routledge, 2005, pp. 187-188.
36
Table 34 Terrorism in 2025 (US National
Intelligence Estimate)
Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, but
its appeal could diminish if economic growth
continues and youth unemployment is mitigated in
the Middle East. Economic opportunities for youth
and greater political pluralism probably would
dissuade some from joining terrorists ranks, but
others motivated by a variety of factors, such
as a desire for revenge or to become martyrs
will continue to turn to violence to purpose
their objectives. Terrorist and insurgent
groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of
descendants of long-established groups that
inherit organizational structures, command and
control processes, and training procedures
necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and
newly emergent collections of the angry and
disenfranchised that become self-radicalized.
(…)Future radicalism could be fuelled by global
communications and mass media. Increasing
interconnectedness will enable individuals to
coalesce around common causes across national
boundaries, creating new cohorts of the angry,
downtrodden, and disenfranchised.
US National Intelligence Council. Global Trends
2025. A Transformed World Washington, D.C. , GPO,
November 2008 (NIC 2008-003), p. 68 emphasis
added, AS.
37
Table 35 Rapoports four Waves Theory
1st Wave 1879- World War I Anarchist Wave 2nd
Wave 1920s to 1960s Anti-Colonial Wave 3rd
Wave 1960s early 1980s New Left Wave 4th
Wave 1979- today Religious Wave 5th Wave
Today 2030s? The New Tribalism?
Source David C. Rapoport. The Four Waves of
Rebel Terror and September 11. Anthropoetics 8,
no. 1 (Spring / Summer 2002) Jeffrey Kaplan. The
Fifth Wave The New Tribalism? Terrorism and
Political Violence, Vol. 19, No.4, 2007,
pp.545-570.
38
Table 36 Fifth Wave of Terrorism - Tribal?
Key Features, according to J. Kaplan.
  • Radical quest for purity racial, tribal,
    ecological, etc.
  • Belief in human perfectibility and chiliastic
    utopia in this lifetime
  • Children are the vanguard of the fifth wave as
    they are the least contaminated by the old
    society
  • Rape is the signature tactic of the fifth wave
  • Fifth wave groups are localistic and
    particularistic….
  • Authoritarian in nature with charismatic
    leadership patterns
  • Chiliastic in nature…millenarian dream to be
    realized through a campaign of apocalyptic
    violence.

SourceJeffrey Kaplan. The Fifth Wave The New
Tribalism? Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol.
19, No.4, 2007, p.548.
39
Table 37 Key Drivers in Armed Conflict
  • Increasing Importance of Information
  • The Evolution of Irregular Warfare Capabilities
  • The Prominence of the Non-military Aspects of
    Warfare
  • The Expansion and Escalation of Conflict beyond
    the Traditional Battlefield

US National Intelligence Council. Global Trends
2025. A Transformed World Washington, D.C. , GPO,
November 2008 (NIC 2008-003), p. 71.
40
Table 38 Major Elements of overall military
capability for NATO Armed Forces
1.Command and Control 2. Reconnaissance,
Surveillance and Target Assessment 3.
Intelligence Support 4. Education, Training and
Exercise 5. NBC Defense 6. Special Operations 7.
Electronic Warfare 8. Interdiction 9.
Logistics 10. Power Projection 11. Combined Joint
Operations 12. Land Operations 13. Air
Operations 14. Maritime Operations.

Source Alex P. Schmid. Comparative Analysis of
Six Dutch Scenarios and Twenty Nato Planning
Situations. Leiden, PIOOM, March 1998, p.6.
41
Table 39 Roles of the Military in Counter-Terr.
  • commando operations for hostage liberation
  • intelligence-led precision strikes on terrorist
  • training facilities
  • target hardening (protection critical
    infrastructures)
  • assistance to police
  • perimeter control after a terrorist attack
  • major role when terrorism turns into insurgency

42
  • Table 40 Classic Tenets of Counterinsurgency
  • Unity of Effort integrated employment of
    political, military, economic, social and
    psychological countermeasures
  • Win the hearts and minds of the population
  • Gain greater credibility than the insurgent.
    Legitimacy is the main objective
  • Deny insurgents sanctuary
  • Police primacy
  • Focus on intelligence
  • Selective and discriminate use of force
  • Avoid overreaction to insurgent violence
  • Separate insurgents from support base
  • Use clear and hold, oil spot tactics to
    gradually sanitise areas of insurgents
  • Secure (host-)nation borders
  • Protect key infrastructure

43
Table 41 How Terrorist Campaigns Came to an end
(n268)
Source Seth Jones. How Terrorist Groups End
Lessons for Countering Al Qaida. ST Monica,
RAND, 2008, p.19
44
Table 42 Definition of Levels of Victory in War
(W.C. Martel, 2008)
  • Tactical victory such as winning either a
    specific battle or, as a result of the cumulative
    effect of many such battlefield triumphs, a war
  • Political-military victory (based on a sufficient
    number of tactical victories), entailing a
    states achieving some of its political and
    military goals and
  • Grand Strategy victory or the strategic successes
    that occur through the destruction of a society,
    its military, economy, and institutions of
    governance when the winning side imposes a
    strategic change in the international system by
    destroying the ideological and moral values of a
    society and then re-establishing the foundations
    of the enemy state, including its government,
    economy and military power.

Source cit. William C. Martel. Victory in War.
Foundations of Modern Military Policy. Cambridge,
University Press, 2007, pp. 9-10, 96-98.
45
Thank you for your attention. Questions?
  • Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political
    Violence
  • School of International Relations,
  • University of St. Andrews

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Instruments of International Legal Regime against
Int. Terrorism
Ratification
52
Instruments of International Legal Regime against
Int. Terrorism Cont.
Ratification
53
Table Elements and Dimensions of Scenarios
  • What are the driving forces? (logic of the story
    based on predetermined forces)
  • What are the critical uncertainties?
  • What is inevitable?
  • Which chains of events will lead to this or that
    scenario?
  • Who are likely to be the winners and losers?
  • What will be the challenges and responses?
  • What is evolutionary, what is revolutionary
    (unbroken and broken lines into future)
  • What are the specific indicators for each
    scenario (current weak or strong signals pointing
    to one or another possible future)?

Source Alex P. Schmid. Comparative Analysis of
Six Dutch Scenarios and Twenty Nato Planning
Situations. Leiden, PIOOM, March 1998, p.6.
54
Table 29 Possible Scale of Terrorist Attacks
(1993 Estimates)
Source Office of Technology Assessment.
Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
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