Planning for the Future: Key Workforce and Industry Trends

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Planning for the Future Key Workforce and
Industry Trends
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What is Strategic Workforce Planning?
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• A method to forecast future human capital needs.
  In other words Do you have the right talent for
  the future?
• Ideally a collaboration bringing together overall
  business strategy and forecasting information
  together with human resources/workforce data

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Why plan?

• Talent shortages
• Productivity needs (competition)
• Technological/global change
• Increased need for innovation
• Demographic changes
• Leadership development
• Engagement concerns

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Elements of a Strategic Workforce Plan

• Environmental Scan
• Current Workforce Profile
• Future Workforce Demands/Scenarios
• Workforce/talent Gap Analysis
• Strategy Development

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Environmental Scan

• The environment scan identifies emerging trends,
  issues and the business environment within which
  you operate
• What are the workforce trends and challenges
  specific to your industry?
• What are your competitors attraction and
  retention strategies?
• What are the general labor force trends and
  challenges?
• What other industries compete for the same pools
  of labor?
• What similar occupations are experiencing
  shortages/surpluses?

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Current Workforce Profile

• What is Your Current Capacity?
• Strengths
• Competencies
• Longevity
• Engagement Level
• Potential

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Future Workforce Demands/Scenarios

• Understand the trends that may impact your
  industry and workforce
• Global, State Local
• Industry Specific
• Technology Trends
• Monitor industry publications, associations and
  websites

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Workforce Gap Analysis

• Are shortages or surpluses forecast for your
  occupational groups?
• Which labor pools can you target to fill expected
  shortages?
• What are your options for dealing with potential
  surpluses?
• Will your organization require new occupations or
  skills sets?
• Will these be recruited externally or developed
  in-house?
• Will a significant part of the workforce be
  leaving through retirement?
• How will this be addressed?

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Strategy Development Developing a High
Performance Workforce

• Employee orientation
• Learning, development and training
• Health and safety programs
• Job re-design
• Technology adoption
• Process improvement programs

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Lane County Labor Market and Economic
ForecastPart of Your Environmental Scan

• Resource www.qualityinfo.org
• Oregon Labor Market Information System

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Lane County Forecast for 2008 2018 includes
losses in 2009, then rebound.
Source Office of Economic Analysis, Department
of Administrative Services December 2009
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Lane County Employment Overview
Source Oregon Employment Department (Nov 2009
snapshot)
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Lane County Industries Adding the Most
Jobs2008-2018
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Lane County Declining IndustriesProjected
2008-2018
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Lane County Projected Job Openings2008-2018
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Some Lane County Demand Occupations
Occupation Growth Rate of New and Replacement Openings 2008-2018
General/Operations Managers 9 607
Engineers 10 227
Registered Nurses 26 1,285
Production Workers 6 1,052
Cooks/Food Prep Workers 13 1,650
Business Operations Specialists 9 1,056
Counselors/Social Service Specialists 21 1,195
Secretaries/Administrative Assts. 13 1,121
Correctional Officers 414 106
Retail Sales Workers 10 4,486
Information and Records Clerks 11 2,472
Electrical/Electronic Equipment Mechanics 18 211
Psychiatric Aides 318 172
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Some Industry Snapshots

• Health Care
• Manufacturing
• Green Jobs

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Lane County Health Care Sector Snapshot

• 17,000 people employed in health care, 12 of
  employment
• Average pay 43,294 (overall average in Lane
  County 34,359)
• Anticipated growth 23 (2008-2018)
• Junction City State Hospital in 2013 will bring
  additional 1,500 jobs
• Veteran's Hospital in 2014 will add more

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Future Trends in Healthcare

• Health Care Informatics the intersection of
  information science, computer science, and health
  care
• Electronic Medical Records (EMR)
• Process Improvement/Lean
• Mergers and acquisitions, the survival of the
  fittest
• New technologies leading to customized treatment,
  earlier diagnosis and prevention of disease
• Aging population puts new demands on system

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Lane County Manufacturing Sector Snapshot

• 14,000 people employed in manufacturing, 9 of
  employment (down 6,000 jobs since 2006)
• Average pay 43,521(overall average in Lane
  County 34,359)
• Despite losses, there are still
  skills/occupational shortages
• Large numbers of highly skilled technicians are
  reaching retirement age (67 of Lane County
  manufacturing workers are pre-retirement age
  45-65 y/o)

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Future Trends in Manufacturing

• Lean manufacturing (Toyota Production System)
• Incorporating green practices and products
• Robotics and computer controlled machinery
• Increased quality standards and regulation
  (ISOInternational Organization for
  Standardization and GMPGood Manufacturing
  Practices Regulation)

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2009 Green Jobs Survey Found

• Approximately 3 of Oregons jobs are green
  jobs
• Many green jobs are existing jobs with green
  skill sets added (e.g. an electrician who
  installs solar panels)

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Top Green Jobs in Oregon (by number of jobs)

• Carpenters (e.g. weatherization)
• Farmworkers/Laborers (e.g. organics)
• Truck Drivers (e.g. compost truck driver)
• Hazardous Materials Removal (e.g. asbestos)
• Landscaping Workers (e.g. site restoration)
• Civil Engineers (e.g. overseeing green projects)
• Production Workers (e.g. recycling sorter)

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Emerging Occupations

• The job you are likely to do in the future has
  not been invented yet
• Futurist Ed Barlow

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A Sampling of Emerging Occupations

• Mechatronics Engineers
• Robotics Technicians
• Distance Learning Coordinators
• Fraud Analysts
• Biofuels Processing Technicians
• Biomass Plant Technicians
• Climate Change Analysts

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More

• Industrial Ecologists
• Recycling and Reclamation Workers
• Sustainability Specialists
• Informatics Nurse Specialists
• Business Intelligence Analysts
• Electronic Commerce Specialists
• Telecommunications Specialists
• Full listing of emerging occupations
  www.onetcenter.org/reports/NewEmerging.html

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Considerations for Future Scenario planning
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National Trends

• Impact of the millennial generation
• Corporate sustainability/climate change
• Focus on employee health and well-being
• Social media
• Maintaining up to date technology platforms
• Aging population/Baby boomers and echo boomers
• New ways of working telework, contract work,
  high performance/lean

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Trends and Changes coming to Lane County

• Incoming state psychiatric hospital (2013) and
  possible prison (2014) in Junction City area,
  providing high-paying stable employment in the
  area, also competing for labor
• VA Hospital likely by 2014
• Likely employment in the solar industry Unichem
  and Grape Solar.
• RV manufacturing likely to retain some jobs in
  Lane County. But we compete with other areas
  including Elkhart, IN.

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Trends and Changes coming to Lane County

• Housing market will return, but still a long way
  to go due to high inventories.
• Population will likely continue to increase and
  diversify. Oregon remains popular with retirees.
• The university will remain a stabilizing force in
  the economy.

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Round Table Discussion
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Table Discussion Questions

• What are some future trends in your industry?
• What impact will these trends have on your
  workforce/skill needs?

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A Skilled Workforce, Our Competitive Advantage