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The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on Employment Kathryn Byun byun_kbls.gov

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Commonly Cited Data from Current Employment Statistics (CES) ... Household and institutional furniture and kitchen cabinet manufacturing. 2016. 2006 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on Employment Kathryn Byun byun_kbls.gov


1
The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on
EmploymentKathryn Byunbyun_k_at_bls.gov
2
Commonly Cited Data from Current Employment
Statistics (CES)
  • 1) Construction Industry Employment
  • Includes work by the construction industry to
    satisfy demand other than for structures
  • Does not include employment necessary to satisfy
    intermediate demand (secondary employment)

3
Commonly Cited Data from the Office of
Occupational Statistics (OOS)
  • 2) Employment in Construction Related
    Occupations
  • Includes employment in the occupation that
    satisfies demand other than for building
    structures
  • Overlook occupations outside of construction

4
OOSEP Methodology
Industry
Use Table
Direct Requirements
Total Requirements
ä
ä
Y
ä
Market Shares
ä
Make Table
Total Requirements
ä
ä
X
Commodity
Total Requirements Table Final Demand
Industry Output
5
OOSEP Methodology cont.
  • Ind. Ouput / Ind. Empl. Empl. Multiplier
  • TRT Emp. Multiplier Employment Requirements
    Table
  • ERT FD vector Industry Employment
  • Industry Employment Vector Staffing Pattern
    Matrix Occupational Employment

6
Final Demand
7
Final Demand for Construction (chained 2000
dollars, millions)
8
Annual Growth Rate
9
Divergence from 1950-95 Trend(chained 2000
dollars, millions)
10
Residential Detail
11
Nonresidential Detail
12
Nonresidential Breakout of Commercial and Health
Care
13
Forecasted data for 2016
14
Average Annual Growth Rates (Final Demand)
15
Employment
16
OOSEP Methodology
  • Final Demand Intermediates Industry Output
  • Ind. Ouput Ind. Empl. Employment
    Requirements Table
  • ERT FD vector Industry Employment

17
Disclaimer
  • The estimates presented from this point on
    reflect my research alone and are not the
    official view of OOSEP or the BLS

18
Employment due to Construction Spending
19
Employment in the Residential Construction
Industry (CES data) vs. Employment due to Demand
for Residential Construction (My data)(Wage and
Salary Employment, Thousands)
20
Annual Growth Rates
21
Employment during the Housing Bubble versus Trend
22
Could res. trend be shifting up?
  • More people owning multiple homes
  • More home owners / Less renters
  • Replacing a higher percentage of existing
    structures
  • Faster population growth (illegal immigration)
  • More single persons buying homes (higher divorce
    rate)

23
Nonresidential Construction Related Employment
versus Trend
24
Could Nonres. trend be shifting down?
  • Less need for structures with e-business
  • Telecommuting
  • Move from manufacturing to services?
  • Other reasons?

25
2007 Employment(Assuming 2006 ERT holds)
26
  • Industry Employment

27
Industries with Construction Related Employment
in 2006 (by major sector)
28
Residential industries with biggest gains in
employment
29
Residential industries with biggest gains in
employment cont.
30
Residential industries with biggest losses in
employment
31
Residential industries with biggest losses in
employment cont.
32
Nonresidential industries with biggest gains in
employment
33
Nonresidential industries with biggest losses in
employment
34
Nonresidential industries with biggest losses in
employment cont.
35
Occupational Employment
  • (Indsutry Employment Vector Staffing Pattern
    Matrix)

36
Occupational Breakout in 2006(by major sector)
37
Top 5 occupations
38
Occupations 6-10
39
Occupations 11-15
40
Occupations 16-20
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