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Projected changes to coastal aquaculture

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Projected changes to coastal aquaculture Presented by Timothy Pickering How should we adapt? Build new shrimp ponds where drainage will not be affected by sea level ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Projected changes to coastal aquaculture


1
Projected changes to coastal aquaculture
Presented by Timothy Pickering
2
Authors
  • This presentation is based on Chapter 11
    Vulnerability of aquaculture in the tropical
    Pacific to climate change in the book
    Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and
    Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD
    Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by
    SPC in 2011.
  • The authors of Chapter 11 are Timothy Pickering,
    Ben Ponia, Cathy Hair, Paul Southgate, Elvira
    Poloczanska, Luc Della Patrona, Antoine
    Teitelbaum, Chadag Mohan, Michael Phillips,
    Johann Bell and Sena De Silva

3
  • Coastal aquaculture (mariculture) already makes a
    significant contribution to some Pacific
    economies
  • It has unrealised potential in other PICTs
  • But future plans could be derailed by projected
    climate changes

4
Current and projected mariculture production
5
Pearls
6
Marine shrimp
7
Seaweed (Kappaphycus)
8
Marine finfish
Batfish (P. orbicularis)
Barramundi
Grouper (Serranidae)
9
Other species
Mud crab
Edible Oysters
10
Culture-based fisheries restocking
Sea cucumber
Giant clam
Trochus
Green snail
11
Annual value of aquaculture
  • Total value in 2007 was US 211 m
  • Pearl farming in French Polynesia dominates
  • Next is shrimp in New Caledonia
  • Together, gt90 of total value

Annual value of aquaculture commodity production
12
Livelihoods
Shrimp
Pearl
13
Contribution of aquaculture to GDP
  • Aquaculture provides 22 of fisheries
    contribution to GDP across the region

14
Projected production
  • Without considering the effects of cliamte
    change, aquaculture production is optimistically
    forecast to be to be worth USD 320 million by
    2025
  • Growth mainly driven by expansion of existing
    commodities, and via adoption of these
    commodities by additional PICTs
  • But note SPC report Opportunities for the
    Development of the Pacific Islands Mariculture
    Sector

15
Vulnerability of mariculture
16
Projected climate change
Source Lough et al. (2011), Ganachaud et al.
(2011)
17
Ocean acidification
Source IPCC (2007), Ganachaud et al. (2011)
18
Temperature
2035
2050
Spatial variation in temperature increase
2035
2100
Source Lough et al. (2011)
Based on B1 2100
19
Projected impacts
  • Mariculture faces major uncertainties
  • Poor knowledge about effects of seawater
    acidification on shell formation
  • Pearl aquaculture is more vulnerable to
    acidification than shrimp

20
Acidification and pearls
  • If projected changes in seawater pH adversely
    affect pearl oyster spat and adults, or pearl
    quality, then industry will be highly vulnerable

High-quality Fiji Pearls Poor lustre, defects
21
Pearl farming
Hunter Pearls hatchery, Fiji Islands
  • Vulnerable to cyclones but may benefit from
    sea-level rise

Storm surge during Cyclone Tomas, February 2010
22
Shrimp farming
Now
  • Industry faces both benefits and risks from
    climate change
  • Climatic conditions for shrimp farming in
    subtropics are likely to improve, subject reduced
    temperature fluctuation

Future good
Future bad
23
Shrimp farming
  • The main threats to shrimp aquaculture stem from
  • Acidification
  • Sea-level rise
  • Scarcity of fishmeal
  • Pathogens

24
Shrimp farming
Now crop in progress
  • Sea-level rise will make ponds impossible to dry
    between crops

Now pond preparation
Future poor pond preparation
Future difficult to harvest
25
Kappaphycus seaweed
  • Seaweed is vulnerable to seawater temperature
    gt30oC
  • Reduced salinity due to more rainfall stresses
    seaweed
  • Cause ice-ice and Epiphytic Filamentous Algae
    (EFA) outbreaks
  • Reduced nutrient supply will slow growth

Ice-ice
EFA
26
Marine fish, shellfish
  • Mariculture of fish and shellfish faces major
    uncertainties
  • Possible effects of seawater acidification on
    larval fish
  • and shells

27
Aquatic animal diseases
  • Higher temperatures caused increased prevalence
    of pathogens
  • Nature and extent of future aquatic animal
    disease risks are not clear

White Spot Virus WSV
28
Summary of vulnerability
29
Summary of vulnerability
30
Key responses and adaptations
31
How should we adapt?
  • Expect production losses from extreme events
    and unexpected causes
  • Ensure that financial planning for enterprises
    can absorb such shocks

32
How should we adapt?
  • Grow pearls at greater depth for final nacre

Photo Leanne Hunter
Source Pickering et al. (2011)
33
How should we adapt?
  • Long term data collection to identify sites where
    conditions for nacre growth may be better
  • Progressively switch to hatchery production

Photo Rusiate Vadiga
34
How should we adapt?
  • Build new shrimp ponds where drainage will not be
    affected by sea level rise

35
How should we adapt?
Move shrimp ponds landward or to higher
ground Adopt more intensive farming methods
that use less land and water
36
How should we adapt?
  • Build up walls and floors of existing shrimp
    ponds

Suitable sediment for shrimp and meiofauna
Source Della Patrona et al. (2011)
37
How should we adapt?
  • Select sites for seaweed farms near upwelling
    areas and at low risk from increased freshwater
    runoff
  • Use temperature- and salinity-tolerant strains to
    avoid ice-ice and EFA

Photo Gideon Tiroba
Photo George Steinmetz
38
Outlook for mariculture
39
Pearl farming
  • Difficult to project production of pearls until
    more is known about effects of seawater
    acidification

40
Shrimp farming
  • New Caledonia could still double production (to
    4000 tonnes per year and 1000 livelihoods)
  • Fiji could develop to 1000 tonnes in the medium
    term
  • PNG could develop to 2000 tonnes
  • But rofit margins will be lower

41
Kappaphycus seaweed
  • Medium-term targets of 1000 tonnes per year
    (engaging hundreds of households) for Fiji,
    Kiribati PNG and Solomon Islands , should still
    be achievable
  • But not in the same places, by the same methods,
    or with the same varieties

42
Other commodities
  • Marine finfish, mud crab, corals, giant clam,
    trochus, and sea cucumber are fledgling
    industries

43
Conclusion
  • Mariculture has much scope for development
  • Production efficiency is likely to be affected by
    climate change
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