AMERICAN GOVERNMENT, 10th edition by Theodore J. Lowi, Benjamin Ginsberg, and Kenneth A. Shepsle

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AMERICAN GOVERNMENT, 10th editionby Theodore J.
Lowi, Benjamin Ginsberg, and Kenneth A. Shepsle

• Chapter 9 Public Opinion

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Debate Redux

• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vl63SRpGXBHEfeature
  related

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Americas Tyrannical Majority

• Observing America in the 1830s, Alexis de
  Tocqueville warned of the potential for the
  tyranny of the majority.
• I know of no country in which there is so
  little independence of mind and real freedom of
  discussion as in America In America the
  majority raises formidable barriers around the
  liberty of opinion within these barriers an
  author may write what he pleases, but woe to him
  if he goes beyond them.
• Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

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Characteristics of Public Opinion

• Characteristics
• Direction
• Intensity
• Saliency
• Latency

• Definition
• Public opinion is the values and attitudes that
  people have about issues, events, and
  personalities.

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• Public opinion has direction.
• Whatever the response to a public opinion poll
  (yes or no more or less 1 or 100) people have
  opinions about proper directions and preferred
  alternatives.
• Liberals are said to be on the left, and
  conservatives are said to be on the right.

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• If direction measures what people think,
  intensity refers to how deeply individuals hold a
  given opinion and how likely they are to act on
  it.
• Not all opinions are equally felt by citizens,
  so not all opinions are equally consequential for
  politics.

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• If direction and intensity characterize
  individual opinions, saliency and latency are
  characteristics of overall opinion.
• Salient opinion is that which enjoys widespread
  public attention and is a high priority.
• Latent opinion may be widespread but generally
  remains in the background unmolded, unmobilized,
  and uncrystallized.

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• As Tocqueville might have predicted, one
  negative consequence of the marketplace of
  ideas is that unpopular ideas might not be given
  a chance to compete, regardless of their
  potential merit.
• Should they seem at first glance to be
  unpopular, such potentially good ideas are likely
  to go unexpressed. Thus, they do not receive the
  consideration that might make them seem more
  appealing.
• For this reason, differences in public opinion
  can be very valuable.

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Differences in Public Opinion

• Despite widespread agreement, fundamental
  disagreements continue, over not only specific
  issues but also how we define our core areas of
  consensus.

• Political divisions between liberals and
  conservatives reflect relatively consistent
  differences among Americans.
• Moreover, demographic differences (between and
  among racial and ethnic groups and between men
  and women) persist and define many of the
  important political battles in American politics.

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• Beyond demographics, public opinion is also
  affected by other agents of socialization like
  education levels and membership in social groups.
• Differences between religious groups are one
  example.

• Agents of socialization are the social
  institutions, including families and schools,
  that help shape individuals basic political
  beliefs and values.

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Shaping Opinion

• Political opinions are also shaped in the
  marketplace of ideas by
• political leaders
• private groups
• the media

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• Governments and politicians seek to monitor and
  shape public opinion to build public support for
  governmental actions and policies.
• In recent years, politicians have increasingly
  used technologies such as public opinion polls
  and media appeals, to shape public opinion.

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• Other political actors, such as outside interest
  groups and the mass media, seek to sell their
  ideas and influence tastes in the idea
  marketplace.

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• Measuring Public Opinion
• Public opinion polls, scientific instruments for
  measuring public opinion, are now prevalent in
  American politics.
• Media organizations newspapers and television
  often have in-house polling operations and
  report public opinion data on a regular basis.

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How are Polls Conducted?

• http//www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?vide
  oId156231titleteam-daily-polls

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• Pollsters begin by choosing a small group of
  respondents to represent the most important
  characteristics of an entire population.
• Selecting a representative sample is key to
  being able to make generalizations about a polls
  results.

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• If done correctly, public opinion polls are
  remarkably accurate snapshots of public sentiment
  at any given time and reasonably good predictors
  of election outcomes.
• Poor construction and mistaken interpretations
  of polls can misrepresent public opinion
• poor sampling
• question wording and ordering
• illusion of saliency
• illusion of central tendency

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The Literary Digest Fiasco 1936

• The Literary Digest had predicted the winner in
  every presidential election since 1916, and had
  based its 1936 predictions on the largest
  response to any poll in history -- over 10
  million questionnaires were mailed using lists of
  automobile and telephone owners -- over 2.3
  million people responded.
• FDR was just completing his first term and was
  facing a tough challenge from Republican Alf
  Landon. The Literary Digest predicted that
  Landon would beat FDR -- 57 to 43 percent.
• At the same time, a young George Gallup sampled
  only 50,000 people and predicted that Roosevelt
  would win. Gallup's prediction was ridiculed as
  naive. But Roosevelt won with 62 of the vote.
  The size of the Digest's error is staggering.
  How could they have been so far off?

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• The Literary Digest had made two fatal mistakes
• Sampling Bias -- Their list of names came from
  lists of cars and phone owners an inherently
  affluent sample (a much smaller portion of the
  population in the thirties than it is today).
• Self-Selection Bias -- The Digest had depended on
  voluntary response. FDR was the incumbent, and
  those who were unhappy with his administration
  were more likely to respond to the Digest survey.

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• Poll results can produce the bandwagon effect
  whereby there is a shift in support to a
  candidate or opinion because the polls portray
  its popularity.
• Push polling is a technique in which the
  questions asked in a poll are designed not to
  measure a respondents opinion but to change it.

• Polls and their results can also influence
  public opinion.

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• Prior to widespread poll use, politicians used
  informal methods to measure public sentiment.
  They would
• monitor press reports and editorials
• tabulate letters and phone calls from
  constituents
• consult opinion surrogates like barbers and cab
  drivers.

• More than simply representing (or
  misrepresenting) public opinion, polling actually
  transforms opinion and has an effect on its
  importance in politics.

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• When polling replaced these more informal
  methods of measuring public opinion, the new
  technology actually transformed the opinion that
  influenced politics.
• When polls are conducted correctly they are
  remarkably accurate. For this reason,
  politicians and political observers pay a great
  deal of attention to polling.

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Public Opinion and Democracy

• What is the proper use of polls in American
  politics?
• To retain its democratic characteristics,
  American politics must reflect public opinion in
  important respects.
• But to remain republican, American politics
  must avoid constant decision making by
  plebiscite.

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• Although most politicians deny being
  poll-driven, most politicians at the national
  level (and all modern presidents) use polls to
  make decisions.

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• There are several problems associated with
  making policy based on polls.

• The American public frequently lacks adequate
  information on policies.
• Public opinion often lacks coherence and is
  internally contradictory.
• Public support is volatile and changes over time.

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Source ABC News/Washington Post Poll, various
dates, 2003-2007. (http//www.pollingreport.com/ir
aq.htm) The question asked of respondents was Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is
handling the situation in Iraq?
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• To what extent should public support for the war
  in Iraq influence U.S. foreign policy?
• What are the drawbacks of conducting a war based
  on polls?
• What are the implications for a democracy in
  which public opinion is not effective in
  determining foreign policy?

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