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Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington

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Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington Part 2 Impacts on Salmon by Robert S. Cole The Evergreen State College Impacts on Water Resources Less snow ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington


1
Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in
Washington
  • Part 2 Impacts on Salmon
  • by Robert S. Cole
  • The Evergreen State College

2
Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in
Washington (Part 2)Abstract
  • This case study is an introduction to the
    potential impacts of global climate change on
    some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It
    explores specifically the impacts of global
    climate change on the salmon life cycle. Because
    salmon have been such an integral part of
    indigenous cultures in the Pacific Northwest for
    thousands of years into present times, disruption
    of the salmon life cycle must be taken seriously.
    This case explores the impacts of increased air
    and water temperatures, of increased winter
    precipitation with decreased snowpack, of
    decreased summer precipitation, on the salmon
    life cycle. This case is designed as a clicker
    case to be used in conjunction with interrupted
    lecture or interrupted workshop formats of
    presentation.

3
  • The Pacific salmon have been a central part of
    the culture and economy of the indigenous peoples
    of the Pacific Northwest for thousands of years.
  • That remains true today.
  • The health and well-being of salmon stocks have
    been at the heart of the Boldt decision (U.S. v.
    Washington, 1974) and the Martinez decision (U.S.
    v. Washington, 2007), which affirmed fishing
    rights for Tribes, and the centrality of
    protecting salmon habitat from degradation.
  • Image courtesy of Phillip Martin

4
  • Since the Boldt decision, the Tribes in
    Washington State have played a crucial role in
    salmon management, salmon research, and salmon
    habitat restoration.
  • The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC)
    plays a central role in working on fisheries
    management with federal and state agencies and
    with the Tribes.
  • The NWIFC has been a major source of quantitative
    measurements of salmon distribution and health,
    and uses sophisticated data analysis methods.
  • The NWIFC has taken a leading role in habitat
    multiple kinds of restoration projects throughout
    the Salish Sea region.

5
  • Over the past 200 years, the dominant culture has
    inflicted massive habitat degradation for salmon,
    including hydroelectric dams on many rivers,
    deforestation, alteration of riparian habitat,
    channeling rivers and streams, introduction of
    toxics and other pollutants, and destruction of
    estuaries and near-shore marine kelp beds.
  • To aid salmon at all stages of the salmon life
    cycle, Tribal peoples, along with federal and
    state agencies and numerous environmental
    organizations have invested significant time and
    effort to help restore riparian habitat,
    estuaries and near-shore environments, and
    eliminate sources of toxics and pollution.

6
  • Climate change may have an impact on the salmon
    life cycle in ways that are fundamentally
    different from the habitat destruction of the
    past 200 years.

7
  • At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and
    academic people interested the impacts of global
    climate change on the salmon life cycle in
    Washington, several presenters showed some slides
    of likely scenarios. This case examines some of
    the issues that are of direct interest to anyone
    who cares about healthy salmon habitat and
    healthy salmon runs
  • Impact on salmon of increased air and water
    temperatures
  • Impact on salmon of altered precipitation
    patterns
  • Impact on salmon of altered stream and river
    hydrology

8
CQ 1 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
impact on salmon of global climate change?
  • A. The impact on salmon, if any, will be small
    compared to natural changes that have occurred
    before.
  • The impact on salmon will be minor, but wont
    cause major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle.
  • The impact on salmon will be significant, and
    will alter the salmon life-cycle.
  • The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and
    will eliminate the species from streams and
    rivers in Washington.

9
The Climate Impacts Group at the University of
Washington predicts that
  • There will be a rise in average temperature
    throughout the 21st century
  • There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound
    region throughout the 21st century
  • There will be a significant alteration of the
    hydrological cycle in the Pacific Northwest
    throughout the 21st century
  • All of this will have substantial impact on the
    salmon runs, timber production, hydroelectric
    energy production, agriculture, and land areas
    close to sea level.

http//cses.washington.edu/cig/
10
Here are three graphs related to air temperatures
in the Pacific Northwest that the Climate Impacts
Group has assembled
11
Average temperature could increase beyond the
year-to-year variability observed in the PNW
during the 20th century as early as the 2020s
12
PNW climate change
Accelerated warming 2 F by 2020, 3 F by 2040
(relative to 1970-1999) Rate of increase is 1.5-6
times faster than during 20th century Possibly
more warming in summer than winter Precipitation
variability continues
All changes are benchmarked to average
temperature and precipitation for 1970-1999
13
PNW Temperature Trends by Station
  • Average annual temperature increased 1.5?F in
    the PNW during the 20th century
  • Almost every station shows warming
  • Extreme cold conditions have become rarer
  • Low temperatures rose faster than high
    temperatures

14
CQ 2 Based on your understanding of the above
slides, what do you think best describes the
local consequences of local air temperature
change on the salmon in local streams?
  • Air temperature rise will not affect salmon,
    because they dont live in the air.
  • Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on
    salmon because salmon can thrive in a range of
    different temperatures.
  • Air temperature rise will have a detrimental
    effect on salmon because stream water
    temperatures will rise along with the air
    temperature.
  • Air temperature rise will stop the salmon
    altogether from swimming upstream.

15
Here are some upper limits of water temperature
that various species of salmon can withstand.
16
Here are the historical temperatures in
August. Shaded areas Air temperatures Circl
es maximum stream temperatures
17
Here are the anticipated August temperatures
with two different models (A1B and B1) of
greenhouse gas accumulation. Shaded areas
Air temperatures Circles Maximum stream
temperatures
18
Here are the anticipated increases in weekly
maximum stream temperatures.
19
Here are the anticipated average number of weeks
per year that stream temperatures exceed 21C
(70F).
20
Discussion
  • Given the slides that youve seen, spend a few
    minutes discussing the impact of increasing water
    temperatures on salmon.
  • What types of streamside management might help
    minimize stream water warming?

21
The Climate Impacts Group at the University of
Washington has said that expected 21st century
changes in temperature and precipitation will
transform the hydrologic behavior of many
mountain watersheds in the West. The next slide
shows some of the projections
22
Trends in Spring Runoff
Peak of spring runoff is moving earlier into the
spring throughout western US and Canada
  • Advances of 10-30 days between 1948-2000
  • Greatest trends in PNW, Canada, and AK
  • gt30 of trends are statistically significant at
    the 90 level, especially in the PNW

Stewart, I., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D.,
2004, Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in
western North America under a "Business as Usual"
climate change scenario Climatic Change 62,
217-232.
23
CQ 3 Based on your understanding of the above
slide, which statement best characterizes the
impact of trends in spring runoff on the salmon
life-cycle?
  • Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable
    effect on the salmon life cycle.
  • Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in
    returning earlier to the rivers.
  • Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life
    cycle.
  • Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon
    life cycle.

24
(No Transcript)
25
Shifts in Streamflow
Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin
26
CQ 4 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in winter streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will have no
    discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in
    returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon
    eggs because of increased flooding.
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the
    salmon life cycle.

27
Discussion
  • Discuss in small groups what effect increased
    streamflow in the winter months might have on the
    salmon life-cycle.

28
Shifts in Streamflow
Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin
29
(No Transcript)
30
CQ 5 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in summer streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will have no
    discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in
    returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon
    smolt trying to get downstream.
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will completely
    destroy the salmon life cycle.

31
Discussion
  • Discuss in small groups what effect decreased
    streamflow in the summer months might have on the
    salmon life-cycle.

32
Trends in Snow Water Equivalent
  • Most PNW stations show a decline in snow water
    equivalent
  • Numerous sites in the Cascades with 30 to 60
    declines

Decrease Increase
  • Similar trends seen throughout the western United
    States - 73 of stations show a decline in April
    1 snow water equivalent

33
Spring snowpack will decline as more winter
precipitation falls as rain rather than snow,
particularly in transient (mid-elevation) basins
Main Impact Less Snow
34
Impacts on Water Resources
  • Increased winter flooding in many river basins
  • Increased summer drought frequency
  • Negative impacts on hydropower production,
    irrigation water supply, instream flow protection
  • More stress on urban water supplies
  • Less snow, earlier melt
  • More water in winter
  • Less water in summer
  • Higher temperatures
  • decreased winter electricity demand
  • increased summer water electricity demand

Bottom line Increased competition for water and
increased vulnerability to drought
35
Salmon Impacted Across Full Life-Cycle
36
Observed changes in natural systems (20th
century)
37
Observed 20th Century Changes
38
Nearly every glacier in the Cascades and
Olympics has retreated during the past 50-150
years
South Cascade Glacier, 1928 (top) and 2000
(right)
Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS
Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA
39
Discussion
  • Given the slides that youve seen, spend a few
    minutes discussing the possible approaches that
    the Tribes might take to get federal, state, and
    local governments more involved in taking steps
    to minimize the danger to salmon in the Pacific
    Northwest.

40
Questions to Consolidate Your Learning
41
CQ 1 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
impact on salmon of global climate change?
  • A. The impact on salmon, if any, will be small
    compared to natural changes that have occurred
    before.
  • The impact on salmon will be minor, but wont
    cause major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle.
  • The impact on salmon will be significant, and
    will alter the salmon life-cycle.
  • The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and
    will eliminate the species from streams and
    rivers in Washington.

42
CQ 2 Based on your understanding of the above
slides, what do you think best describes the
local consequences of local air temperature
change on the salmon in local streams?
  • Air temperature rise will not affect salmon,
    because they dont live in the air.
  • Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on
    salmon because salmon can thrive in a range of
    different temperatures.
  • Air temperature rise will have a detrimental
    effect on salmon because stream water
    temperatures will rise along with the air
    temperature.
  • Air temperature rise will stop the salmon
    altogether from swimming upstream.

43
CQ 3 Based on your understanding of the above
slide, which statement best characterizes the
impact of trends in spring runoff on the salmon
life-cycle?
  • Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable
    effect on the salmon life cycle.
  • Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in
    returning earlier to the rivers.
  • Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life
    cycle.
  • Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon
    life cycle.

44
CQ 4 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in winter streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will have no
    discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in
    returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon
    eggs because of increased flooding.
  • Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the
    salmon life cycle.

45
CQ 5 Based on your understanding of the above
two slides, which statement best characterizes
the impact of shifts in summer streamflow on the
salmon life-cycle?
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will have no
    discernable effect on the salmon life cycle.
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in
    returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon
    smolt trying to get downstream.
  • Shifts in summer streamflow will completely
    destroy the salmon life cycle.

46
References
  • Excellent documents regarding climate change in
    general, and the potential effects on the
    hydrology of streams and rivers in Washington in
    particular, can be found at the website of the
    Climate Impacts Group at the University of
    Washington http//cses.washington.edu/cig/
    (accessed May 20, 2011). Information, research
    results, and data bases are constantly changing,
    and this site, along with the IPCC site (IPCC
    2007, below) are among the most credible. The
    website of the northwest Indian Fisheries
    Commission, http//nwifc.org/, is excellent.
    Also listed are two very fine books describing
    many features of the salmon life cycle.
  • Bell 1996, Pacific Salmon From Egg to Exit,
    Gordon Bell, Hanncock House Publishers, 1996,
  • ISBN 0-88839-379-2
  • IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
    Change, Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report,
    United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and
    the World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
    http//www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed May 22, 2011)
  • Quinn 2005, The Behavior and Ecology of Pacific
    Salmon and Trout, Thomas P. Quinn, University of
    Washington Press, 2005, ISBN 0-295-98457-0
  • Wolf Zuckerman 1999, Salmon Nation, Edward C.
    Wolf and Seth Zuckerman, editors, Ecotrust 1999,
    ISBN 0-9676364-0-X The opening article,
    Recalling Celilo, by Elizabeth Woody is
    excellent.

47
References
  • The following websites contain a wealth of
    information regarding Tribal actions to improve
    salmon habitat
  • National Congress of American Indians,
    http//www.ncai.org/
  • Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission,
    http//nwifc.org/
  • The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians,
    http//www.atnitribes.org/
  • Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission,
    http//www.critfc.org/
  • The National Tribal Environmental Council,
    http//www.ntec.org/
  • Wild Salmon Center, http//www.wildsalmoncent
    er.org/
  • Ecotrust, http//www.ecotrust.org/

48
For Further Study
  • An excellent series of case studies that explores
    different aspects of salmon and Tribal peoples
    can be found at the website of the Enduring
    Legacies Native Case Studies Project
  • http//nativecases.evergreen.edu/collection/themes
    /salmon.html
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