The Use and Value of Climate Information for Wind Power Planning

1
The Use and Value of Climate Information for Wind
Power Planning

• Bret Harper
• August 9, 2005
• SOARS Program
• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
• Boulder, CO

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The Storyline

• The coming energy transformation
• Research questions
• Climatology and wind power analysis
• ENSOs effects on power production

3
The Time For an Energy Transformation Is Now!(or
maybe long overdue)

• Driving forces and threats
• Persistent local/regional air pollution (Davis
  2002)
• Volatile oil and gas prices (Hall 2005)
• Economic and security risks (OBrien and
  Leichenko 2000, Barnett 2001)
• High levels of investment are required for a
  transformation of energy infrastructure
• 50-100 years are needed for transformation of
  energy infrastructure

4
Northern Great Plains

• 58 of US onshore wind resource (AWEA 2004)
• Diversifying US electric power resource
• Wind power development is an opportunity for
  economic revitalization
• Agricultural economy is in decline due to
• Mechanization
• Globalization
• Ground water shortages

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Integrating Wind into Electricity Grids

• Wind power planning has focused on short-term
  forecasting
• More attention is needed on long-term climate
  variability that will influence weather patterns

Wind turbines and substation. (AWEA 2004)
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The Challenge of Matching Electricity Demand and
Supply

• Generating plants
• Transmission
• Weather patterns
• TV pickups
• Changes in wind speeds
• Diversified source
• Weather Forecasts
• Climate Information

AWEA 2004
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Weather Forecasting and Climate Information

• Good weather forecasts and climate information
  are crucial to the future of the wind power
  industry
• Hourly weather forecasts are necessary to
  participate in deregulated energy market
• Climate information is important to estimating
  the long-term capacity for energy production and
  economic returns on the infrastructure
  investments

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Critical Issue

• ENSO effects
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Snowfall
• Tornado activity
• Peak wind gust
• Wind power production

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Research Questions

• Do periods of ENSO impact the characteristics of
  wind in the Northern Great Plains?
• How can climate information be best used for
  planning
• the future electric grid supply operations, and
• the potential for wind energy penetration.

from Renewable Resource Data Center
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Approach

• NCDC TD6421 Enhanced Hourly Wind Station Data for
  the Contiguous United States
• Huron Airport
• Pierre Airport
• Ellsworth AFB
• Rapid City Airport
• 49 yr of hourly data
• 1950-1999
• gt 1.7 million hours

High resolution map of South Dakotas wind energy
resource (NREL).
12

• Divide into 3 sets
• (SST in Nino 3.4 region)
• 16 El Nino phases
• 27 Neutral phases
• 11 La Nina phases

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Summary of Sixty Years of Wind Speed Data at Huron
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NORDEX N60
Power 1,300 kW Diameter 60 m 197 ft Rotor
speed 12.8/19.2 rpm Hub height 80 m 262 ft
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Average Daily Power Production by Phase
Ellsworth Huron
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Annual Power Production by Phase
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Pierre
Rapid City
Ellsworth Huron
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Probability of a low wind event
Probability of a low wind event
Rapid City Pierre
Month Month Ellsworth Huron
Month Month
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Results

• An ENSO-wind relationship exists
• Higher wind energy production is expected during
  La Nina periods due to less frequent lull
  episodes.
• El Nino periods are characterized by lower mean
  wind speeds and more frequent occurrences of
  lulls that will reduce the capacity for energy
  production.

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Future Work

• Detailed analysis of SD data
• Confidence intervals
• Statistical significance
• Examine ENSO impacts on wind characteristics for
  all US locations that are potential wind power
  sites
• Explore potential impacts of other types of
  systematic climate variability on winds (e.g.,
  PDO, NAO, AO)

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Final Words

• Climate is crucial for long-term wind power site
  selection, the estimation of expected capacity
  for power production, and estimating requirements
  for energy storage and complementary sources.
• Wind development is crucial to future energy
  supply development in the US
• Cost effective energy
• Environmental benefits

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Acknowledgements

• Science mentor Robert Harriss
• Communication mentor David Gochis
• Statistics Rick Katz
• Also Larry McDaniel, Claudia Tebaldi, Casey
  Thornbrugh, and the rest of the SOARS protégés
  and staff

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References

• AWEA, 2004 Wind Energy Potential. Wind Web
  Tutorial, www.awea.org
• Barnett, Jon 2001 Security and Climate Change.
  Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 7.
• Davis, Devra 2002 When Smoke Ran Like Water.
• Hall, Kevin G. 2005 Simulated oil meltdown
  shows U.S. economys vulnerability. Knight Ridder
  Newspapers.
• IEA, 2005 Integrating Wind into Electricity
  Grids. Variability of Wind Power and other
  Renewable Management Options and Strategies, IEA
  report.
• OBrien, Karen L. and Leichenko, Robin M. 2000
  Double exposure assessing the impacts of climate
  change within the context of economic
  globalization. Global Environmental Change.
• Trenberth, K.E. Caron, J.M. Stepaniak, D.P.
  Worley, S. 2002 J. Geophys. Res. 107,
  10.1029/2000JD000298.

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Questions

• The wind doesn't blow all the time. How much can
  it really contribute to a utility's generating
  capacity?
• How much energy can wind realistically supply to
  the U.S.?
• What is needed for wind to reach its full
  potential in the U.S.?
• How much energy can wind supply worldwide?
• I've heard that Denmark is pulling back on wind
  development. Does that mean wind is a failure?
• What is the "energy payback time" for a wind
  turbine?
• What are your primary references?

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El Nino/La NinaStorm Tracks

• El Nino tends to bewet during winter
• La Nina tends to bedry during winter
• La Na Da Neutraltends to flip/flopdepending on
  cycle

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Questions

• What is ENSO?
• What is a wind turbine and how does it work?
• How big is a wind turbine?
• How much electricity can one wind turbine
  generate?
• How many turbines does it take to make one
  megawatt (MW)?
• How many homes can one megawatt of wind serve?
• What is "capacity factor"?
• If a wind turbine's capacity factor is 33,
  doesn't that mean it is only running one-third of
  the time?
• What is "availability factor"?

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Results
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Ellsworth Pierre
kW
kW
0 cold phase 1 neutral phase 2 warm phase
Ellsworth Huron
kW
kW
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The wind doesn't blow all the time. How much can
it really contribute to a utility's generating
capacity?

• Utilities prefer on/off plants
• Wind plants increase probability system will meet
  demand
• Capacity factorcapacity capacity value
• E.g. 100-MW wind (35) 35-MW conventional
• E.g. 2001 CPUC
• 162-MW wind (30) 48-MW

http//www.eere.energy.gov/windpoweringamerica/pdf
s/xcel_wind_decision.pdf
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THE TOP TWENTY STATES for Wind Energy
Potentialas measured by annual energy potential
in the billions of kWh, factoring in
environmental and land use exclusions for wind
class of 3 and higher.
Total 10,470
Source An Assessment of the Available Windy Land
Area and Wind Energy Potential in the Contiguous
United States, Pacific Northwest Laboratory,
August 1991. PNL-7789
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What is needed for wind to reach its full
potential in the U.S.?

• Consistent policy support
• Large lay-offs
• Hold up investments
• Nondiscriminatory access to transmission lines
• Penalty for failure to transmit on schedule
• New penalty system needed for wind
• New transmission lines
• High voltage lines from High Plains to population
  centers
• Expense offset by benefit to
• consumers
• national security

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How much energy can wind supply worldwide?

• Currently
• More than 39,000-MW worldwide
• 90 B kWh
• 9 million American homes
• Dozen large nuclear power plants
• Theoretically
• 5,800 quadrillion BTUs
• 15 times current world energy production
• 1 quad
• 172 million barrels oil
• 45 million tons coal

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I've heard that Denmark is pulling back on wind
development. Does that mean wind is a failure?

• Denmark is small, the U.S. is not
• 20 of demand in Denmark, 0.4 of demand in U.S.
• Half the size of Indiana
• Denmark has transformed its national power
  system, the U.S. has not
• Overproduction causes scrambling to increase
  exports
• Unimaginable in U.S.
• Danish wind plants are typically small, U.S. wind
  plants are not.
• Community involvement and low-capacity
  distribution networks
• Large wind turbines require advance transmission
  planning and no affect on customer network

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What is the "energy payback time" for a wind
turbine?

• The net energy value of a wind turbine or other
  power plant
• i.e. how long the plant has to operate to
  generate the amount of electricity that was
  needed for its manufacture and construction
• Shortest energy payback time of any energy
  technology
• 3 8 months

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What is ENSO?
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What is a wind turbine and how does it work?
Courtesy of Penn State Erie, The Behrend College
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Back
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How many turbines does it take to make one
megawatt (MW)?

• 1 MW 1,000 kW 1 million W
• 500 kW 4 MW turbines
• Valmont Station 226 MW

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How many homes can one megawatt of wind serve?

• The plants . . . have added 200,000 megawatts of
  electricity generation capacity nationwide, which
  would power 200 million homes The Blade
  (Toledo, OH) June 12, 2005
• 1 MW 1,000 homes
• 100 MW wind farm 30,000 homes
• 30 capacity factor
• 1,000 MW coal plant 750,000 homes
• 75 capacity factor

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What is "capacity factor"?

• 100 MW wind farm 30 MW
• 30 capacity factor
• 1,000 MW coal plant 750 MW
• 75 capacity factor

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If a wind turbine's capacity factor is 33,
doesn't that mean it is only running one-third of
the time?

• No
• Midwest 65-80
• lt full capacity
• Capacity factor lower

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What is "availability factor"?

• A measurement of the reliability of a power plant
• Modern wind turbine gt98
• NREL 2002
• Modern coal plant 85
• Northwest Power Planning Council 2002