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We Live in Exponential Times Interagency to Whole-of-Government

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Title: We Live in Exponential Times Interagency to Whole-of-Government


1
We Live in Exponential Times Interagency to
Whole-of-Government
Prof. L. Erik Kjonnerod Director, Center for
Applied Strategic Learning, NDU
2
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3
A whole new set of skills is crucial.
  • It became clear to me at 58. I would have to
  • learn new tricks that were not taught to me in
    the military manuals or on the battlefield I
    must become an expert in a whole new set of
    skills.
  • General George Marshall
  • Former Secretary of
    State

4
Shift Happens
  • In times of rapid change, the learners inherit
    the earth, while the learned find themselves
    beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no
    longer exists.
  • Eric Hoffer
  • The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be
    those who cannot read or write, but those who
    cannot learn, unlearn and relearn.
  • Alvin Toffler

5
Evolution is Imperative.
It is not the strongest of the species that
survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one
most responsive to change. Charles Darwin We
must always renew, change, rejuvenate ourselves
otherwise we harden. Johann Wolfgang von
Goethe
6
Lifelong learning is critical.

In times of rapid change, the learners inherit
the earth, while the learned find themselves
beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no
longer exists. Eric Hoffer The illiterate of
the 21st Century will not be those who cannot
read or write, but those who cannot learn,
unlearn and relearn.
Alvin Toffler
7
A New National Security
  • The greatest test of global leadership in the
    21st century will be the way in which nations act
    in the face of threats that transcend
    international borders, from nuclear
    proliferation, armed conflict, and climate change
    to terrorism, biological hazards, and abject
    poverty. Today, national security is
    interdependent with international security.
  • Global Strategic Assessment 2009

8
The Cold War
9
GWOT
10
Emerging Security Issues
11
Left Behind - NKPD
12
The Nation-State is Losing Ground
International Bodies
Global Advocacy Groups
The Nation-State
Licit Private Actors
Illicit Private Actors
Aggrieved National Groups
13
Widespread Troubles
14
Two-Edged Sword
  • The forces of globalization that stitch the
    world together and drive prosperity could also
    tear it apart. In the face of new transnational
    threats and profound security interdependence,
    even the strongest countries rely on the
    cooperation of others to protect their national
    security. No nation, including the United States,
    is capable of successfully meeting the
    challenges, or capitalizing on the opportunities,
    of this changed world alone. But
  • American foreign policy lags behind these
    realities.

15
Examples of this Paradigm-Shift
  • Natural Resources Challenges
  • The Spread of Islam
  • The Changing Nature of War
  • The Rise of China

16
Resources - Specific Regional Challenges
  • China, a country with more than 22 of the
    worlds population, only has 8 of its fresh
    water.
  • Indias water demand is expected to double by
    2025.
  • The Middle Easts fresh water availability is
    expected to drop by 50 well before 2025.

17
Islam - Why We CareForeign Policy Implications
  • Our interests in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel,
    Palestine, and Iran are inextricably tied to
    Islam.
  • A negative perception of the US and its
    involvement in the region feeds Islamic extremism
  • Ironically, our greatest strengthmilitary
    powerhas become our greatest liability because
    extensive use of military power can help to
    mobilize Muslims to become Salafi jihadists. Our
    most important partners are Muslims, and we will
    have to continue to find ways to support ongoing
    Muslim efforts to marginalize the Salafi jihadist
    ideology across the Isalmic world while taking
    prudent actions to inhibit catastrophic
    terrorism.
  • Global Strategic Assessment 2009

18
The Changing Nature of War
  • As society and technology change, the nature of
    war also changes, specifically with regard to
  • Actors
  • Means
  • The most capable opponents may seek to pursue
    what has been called hybrid warfarethe
    combination of conventional, irregular, and
    catastrophic forms of warfare simultaneously.
  • Global Strategic Assessment 2009

19
Why the US needs China
  • Economy In 2008, the US exported 71.5 billion
    in goods to China, and imported 337.8 billion
  • Strategic Interests China is a regional
    heavyweight for dealing with difficult problems
    such as North Korea

20
Why the World Needs China
  • Chinas large population and rapid economic
    growth have increased its energy needs. It has
    vested interests in exploring new energy
    marketssuch as Venezuela and Sudan.
  • Its seat on the UNSC demands that others consider
    its point of view
  • It is a significant factor in East Asian regional
    stability
  • It is a nuclear power

21
Major Differences Between China and the United
States
United States -Democratic -Nascent
culture -Focused on election cycle -Concerned
with standing up for a worthy cause -legalistic -D
irect Communication -Values youth
China -Communist -Ancient Culture -Focus on
Long-term -Concerned with losing face -Relies
on connections -indirect communication -Values
elderly
22
Todays global troubles
tomorrows domestic concerns!
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Thinking Strategically
  • Hot Topics
  • Pandemic disease
  • Natural disasters
  • Trade promotion
  • Global debt
  • Foreign oil
  • Stability operations
  • Counterterrorism
  • Larger Issues
  • Health and security
  • Domestic preparedness
  • Corporate governance
  • Economic inequality
  • Resource scarcity
  • USG structure
  • Global demographics

Stop reacting start preventing.
25
Thoughts on Doctrine Why Bother?
"The most difficult thing about planning
against the Americans, is that they do not read
their own doctrine, and they would feel no
particular obligation to follow it if they
did." Admiral Sergei I. Gorshkov, (Father of the
Russian blue water navy) The British write
some of the best doctrine in the world, it
is fortunate that their officers do not read it."
Col (later FM) Erwin Rommel I am tempted to
say that whatever doctrine the armed forces are
working on now, they have got it wrong. I am also
tempted to declare that it does not matter. What
does matter is their ability to get it right
quickly, when the moment arrives. Sir Michael
Howard
26
The Future of Engagement
  • What is a peer?
  • Will asymmetric, nontraditional means become a
    commonplace element of war?
  • What does it mean to win?
  • Must we be prepared to fight a war on many
    fronts?
  • combat abroad, in the face of both kinetic and
    nontraditional threats
  • attacks at home, to hinder supply and deployment
  • attacks on civilian targets in the US homeland
  • shaping public opinion
  • When many more adversaries are nuclear powers,
    how will it change the equation?
  • Employing the private sector?

27
Traditional Orientation
Executive Branch Agencies
Foreign Governments
Congress
Nongovernmental Organizations
Intergovernmental Organizations
28
Players and ConnectionsThe Original Interagency
29
Current Reality Adds.
State and Local Governments
Multinational Firms
Contractors
Extra-state Actors
And then some..
How are new players leveraged in Whole of
Government strategy?
30
WOG Players and Connections Todays Reality
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National Security Council (NSC) and Interagency
Structure
35
A Changing Process
  • National Security Advisor runs the process
    Centralized control
  • More formalized tasking to Deputies Committee
  • Interagency Policy Committees chaired by NSC

The mission of the US is to provide global
leadership grounded in the understanding that the
world shares A common security and a common
humanity. President Barack Obama For Affrs Aug
2007
36
Consistent Challenges
  • Cultural differences
  • Military v. civilian agency response
  • Rivalries tensions among and within agencies
  • Differences in roles, priorities footprints
  • Hesitant buy-in
  • Peacetime planning incentives
  • Coordination s ceding control
  • Tight resources with declining trends unless
    clear, costs trump benefits
  • Resistance to collaborative planning culture and
    tools
  • Inter-department security policy and procedures

37
System Operates at the Edge of Chaos
  • System shows elements of chaos
  • Non-linearity is common
  • It is sensitive to initial conditions
  • Tipping points are prevalent
  • but it also shows continuity
  • Agency players, interests, and capabilities
    remain the same or change slowly

Neither individual players nor the group can
control the final outcome with any certainty
38
Emerging Challenges and New Thinking
39
Recent Thinking
  • Newts Note, Strategic Changes Needed
  • -leadership metrics -Goldwater-Nichols for
    non-defense
  • -winning the Long War -defeating terrorists in
    urban areas
  • -basic research reqs. -entrepreneurialism
  • -communication/evaluation
  • CSIS, Seven Revolutions, Seven Futures
  • -global, long-term, trends until 2025
  • Huntington
  • -clash of civilizations along ethno-linguistic-so
    cio-cultural lines
  • Friedman
  • -running faster just to stay in place
  • Barnett
  • -filling the seams between war and peace is
    essential for US national interests

40
PH Findings Enhance Interagency Capabilities
  • Quadrennial Strategic Review
  • Government-Wide Information Sharing
  • Interagency Fusion Groups
  • Global Health Engagement
  • Global Hazards Planning and Response
  • U.S. Government Partnership Framework
  • Science and Technology Incentive Framework
  • Global Domain Foresight
  • Human Resources Model for Global Affairs
  • Global Affairs Learning Consortium

41
Project on National Security Reform
  • Project on National Security Reform (Jim Locher)
  • In 1947 there were 4 agencies today there are 26
  • Options
  • Director of National Security Affairs (DNSA)
    with Authority
  • No National Security Advisor or Homeland Security
    Advisor
  • Regional Directors of Integrated Regional
    Centers (IRCs)
  • Issue Focused, less collaborative, White House
    focused long term
  • Hierarchy of Decentralized Teams
  • Empowered cross functional teams that work issues
    at all levels for the President day to day
    decentralized problem solving

42
Key Initiatives and ProgramsDirectives, Studies,
Educational Initiatives
  • Joint Interagency Coordination Groups
  • Provides civilian counsel and expertise to the
    combatant commanders.
  • The Way Ahead?...S/CRS, PRTs?
  • National Security Professional
  • Qualification for select positions within the
    Executive Branch
  • National Security Education Consortium
  • The Way Ahead?
  • Center for Complex Operations
  • Interagency Center for Complex Operations located
    in Washington, DC
  • Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
    (S/CRS)

43
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44
Notional NSP Competencies and Learning Areas
Requires input from Interagency stakeholders
45
Integrated Management System (IMS)
  • Country Reconstruction Stabilization Group
    (CRSG)
  • Washington-based
  • Decision-making body (Policy Coordination
    Committee (PCC))
  • With Planning and Operations Staff
  • Integration Planning Cells (IPC)
  • Geographic Combatant Command or multinational
    headquarters
  • Civilian planning cell
  • Advance Civilian Teams (ACT)
  • In the field, Report to Chief of Mission
  • Interagency field management and coordination
    teams

46
Planning Process
  • Situation Analysis
  • Interagency Conflict Assessment Framework (ICAF)
  • Situation Analysis Overview
  • Policy Formulation
  • Policy Advisory Memorandum

47
Planning Process
ICAF
Situation Analysis Overview
Integrated Management System
National Washington DC
Policy Advisory Memo
CRSG
PCC
USG RS Strategic Plan
48
Video 3
  • National ID

49
In the Future - HOW
  • Individually
  • Coordination takes work
  • Personal commitment
  • Networking and meeting those who you will need to
    work with
  • Pushing for understanding
  • Institutionally
  • Career-long education requirements
  • Changes in budget, doctrine, and direction
  • Building capacity through leveraging the
    expertise and strengths of other agencies

You are the agent of change
50
Or....when all else fails Flowchart For Problem
Resolution
Is It Working?
NO
YES
Dont Mess With It!
Did You Mess With It?
YES
YOU IDIOT!
NO
Will it Blow Up In Your Hands?
Anyone Else Knows?
Youre SCREWED!
YES
YES
Can You Blame Someone Else?
NO
NO
NO
Hide It
Look The Other Way
Yes
NO PROBLEM!
51
QUESTIONS?
52
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