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Global Economic Crisis and the Emerging Markets Jonathan Doh

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Global Economic Crisis and the Emerging Markets Jonathan Doh Manny Nunez Jonathan P. Doh July 6, 2009 * * * * * http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/us_chs ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Economic Crisis and the Emerging Markets Jonathan Doh


1
Global Economic Crisis and theEmerging
MarketsJonathan DohManny Nunez
  • Jonathan P. Doh
  • July 6, 2009

2
Outline of our Session
Key global trends and the rise of emerging
markets
Emerging markets as laboratories of innovation
Emerging markets business systems and
relationships
Emerging markets and the economic crisis
3
Is the world flat?
  • 11/9/89 when the walls came down and the windows
    went up
  • 8/9/95 when Netscape went public
  • Workflow Software lets do lunch have your
    application talk to my application
  • Open sourcing self-organizing collaborative
    communities
  • Outsourcing Y2K
  • Offshoring running with gazelles, eating with
    lions
  • Supply-chaining eating sushi in Arkansas
  • In-sourcing what the guys in funny brown shirts
    are really doing
  • Informing Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search
  • The Steroids digital, mobile, personal, and
    virtual (wireless the icing on the cake)

gt3
gt3
4
A spikyworld population
gt4
5
A spikyworld economic activity
gt5
6
A spikyworld innovation
gt6
7
Reflection question
  • From your perspective, is the world
  • Round?
  • Flat?
  • Spiky?

gt7
8
Changing balance of economic power Shift in
World GDP
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
9
Changing balance of economic power Shift in
World GDP
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
10
Changing balance of economic power Shift in
World GDP
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
11
Changing balance of economic power At present,
U.S. by far largest GDP
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
gt11
12
Changing balance of economic power China
surpasses U.S. in 2020 (ppp basis)
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
gt12
13
Relative size of Big 4 economiesmarket exchange
rates
Constant 2004 US bn
14
Relative size of Big 4 economiesPPP exchange
rates
Constant 2004 US bn at PPPs
15
Changing balance of economic power China and
India propel growth in Asia
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
gt15
16
Changing balance of economic powerGreater Asia
will generate 67 of global jobs 2005-20
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
gt16
17
Changing balance of economic powerHigh (but
slowing) GDP growth in China
gt17
18
Changing balance of economic power Makes China
largest (absolute) economic power by 2040
2040-2045
gt18
19
Changing balance of economic power But growth is
uneven
gt19
20
Emerging countries share of GDP
gt20
21
Changing global demographicsThe global
population is aging
gt21
22
Changing global demographics Fertility rates
falling below replacement in G-7
2.1
gt22
23
Changing global demographics Life expectancy
growing in G-7
gt23
24
Changing global demographics Some G-7 aging
faster than others
gt24
25
Inversion of age pyramid1960 Distribution in
Developed World
Men
Women
Year 1960 Median Age 29.6
26
Inversion of age pyramid2050 Distribution in
Developed World
Men
Women
Year 2050 Median Age 46.4
27
Changing global demographicsDeveloping countries
on the rise
12 Largest Countries Ranked by Population
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12
2000 China India United States IndonesiaBrazil
Russian Fed.PakistanBangladeshJapanNigeriaMex
icoGermany
2050 India China United States PakistanIndonesi
aNigeriaBangladeshBrazilCongoEthiopiaMexico
Philippines
1950 China Soviet Union India United
States Japan Indonesia Germany Brazil United
Kingdom Italy France Bangladesh
Source UNDP (2005)
28
Global trends in health care Medical tourism on
the rise
  • In 2008 Deloitte found that "medical tourism" is
    a hot trend among U.S. health care consumers
  • Nearly 40 said they would travel outside the
    country for medical treatment, if the quality was
    comparable and the cost was cut in half
  • Market drivers for medical tourism
  • Cost savings
  • Comparable or better quality health care
  • Shorter waiting periods thus quicker access to
    care
  • World medical tourism market is estimated to
    have reached 60 billion in 2008, and grow to
    100 billion by 2010. Over 35 countries are
    serving around 1 million medical tourists
    annually
  • Medical Tourism Video
  • Assumptions
  • In 2007, approximately 750,000 Americans
    traveled outbound for medical care. That number
    will increase to 6 million by 2010. Therefore the
    growth rate from 2007 to 2010 is 100 for the
    base estimate.
  • After 2010, the growth rate will begin to fall
    due to supply capacity constraints in foreign
    countries.
  • Upper/Lower bound estimates assume the growth
    rate is higher/lower than the base case estimate.
  • Source 2008 Deloitte Development LLC

gt28
29
Global trends in health care Medical tourism on
the rise
gt29
30
Reflection question
  • Which aspects of the key global trends outlined
    here do you believe are the most meaningful and
    long-lasting?
  • Which aspects of the demographic trends are most
    profound?
  • Do you believe the projections re growth of
    global health care tourism are realistic?

31
Emerging markets essentials
  • What is an emerging market?
  • What are these markets emerging from?
  • What are these markets emerging to?
  • What signals help identify a country as emerging?
  • What signals suggest a country is submerging?

gt31
32
Emerging market one definition
  • Gross National Income (GNI)/capita (US)
  • 1,001 (Lower) to 9,999 (Upper)
  • Excludes countries
  • gt10,000 GNI/capita deemed developed market
  • lt1,000 GNI/capita deemed GAVI/developing
    market
  • Source World Bank

Definition
  • World Bank definition of GNI
  • Used 3-year average of exchange rates to
    smooth out annual fluctuations due to policies
    and interventions
  • Classified countries in low-, middle- and
    high-income categories
  • Source World Bank

Rationale
gt32
33
Developing countries v. emerging markets
Emerging Markets (Since 2000)
Developing Countries (prior to 2000)
  • High risk for foreign investors
  • Economically underdeveloped
  • Technologically inferior
  • Low purchasing power
  • Host government restrictions
  • Few significant opportunities for foreign business
  • Risks increasingly manageable
  • Faster income growth than developed countries
  • Technologically competitive
  • Increasing purchasing power
  • Host government liberalization
  • Greater opportunities for foreign business BOP,
    OS

gt33
34
My perspective on emerging markets
  • Developing countries on the move
  • Consistent pattern of policy reform
  • Privatisation (e.g. sale of SOEs)
  • Market liberalisation (e.g. trade, regulatory)
  • Monetary and Fiscal policy (independent Central
    Bank efficient tax system)
  • Resultant record of sustainable growth
  • Faster than average annual growth
  • Growth in private (often foreign) capital)
  • Increased trade and FDI
  • Sustained social progress
  • Improved education, health care, etc

gt34
35
Types of emerging markets
  • BRIC Big emerging markets
  • China and India Giants
  • Others Brazil, Russia, Mexico
  • Second tier but coming on fast
  • Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand
  • Graduates
  • South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore?
  • Transition economies
  • Poland, Russia, Hungary
  • Other
  • Turkey, Middle East economies

gt35
36
BRIC Economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China
Mexico?)
  • Fastest growing, dynamic, highest potential EMs
  • Leaders in respective regions
  • Between 2000-2007, contributed 28 of global
    growth
  • More than 15 of global FDI and trade 30 FX
    reserves
  • China overtakes US by 2040 India beats Japan by
    2033
  • Significant similarities among each
  • All faced substantial acceleration in growth,
    democratic political reform, market-oriented
    reforms manifest in FDI and some macroeconomic
    and reform setbacks
  • Substantial differences as well
  • Each has had difference experience in pace,
    breadth, depth of reform, with some now
    experiencing some backtracking in their
    commitment to pol/econ reform

gt36
37
Outline of our Session
Key global trends and the rise of emerging
markets
Emerging markets as laboratories of innovation
Emerging markets business systems and
relationships
Emerging markets and the economic crisis
38
Emerging markets Institutional systems
  • Institutional systems are a critical and
    overlooked variable in global markets
  • Different countries look differently across these
    measures
  • Important implications for strategy

gt38
39
Institutional systems Political/social systems
  • Political Accountability free/fair elections
  • Political Accountability independent judiciary
  • Government regulatory interference
  • Protection of private property rights
  • Independence of quasi-judiciary agencies
  • Religious, linguistic, ethnic, geographic
    tensions
  • Civil society and NGOs and Corruption
  • Development/independent finance regulator

Source Khanna, T., Palepu, K., Sinha, J.
2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets.
Harvard Business Review, June
gt39
40
Institutional systems Openness
  • Receptivity to/restrictions on FDI
  • Local content/ownership requirements?
  • Presence/quality of foreign intermediaries
  • Support/constraints to new venture development
  • Restrictions on portfolio investment/FX
  • Import tariffs on intermediate/capital goods
  • Participation in FTAs/EIAs
  • Free flow of executives in/out of country
  • Financial liberalization (WTO/unilateral)

Source Khanna, T., Palepu, K., Sinha, J.
2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets.
Harvard Business Review, June
gt40
41
Institutional systems Product
markets/distribution
  • Development of transportation infrastructure
  • Development of distribution systems/networks
  • Existence and sophistication of market research
  • Availability of raw materials/dependability of
    suppliers
  • Government restrictions on FDI
  • Nature/quality of retail/credit system
  • Consumer receptivity to new products/services
  • Ability to develop network of branches or other
    financial distribution systems

Source Khanna, T., Palepu, K., Sinha, J.
2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets.
Harvard Business Review, June
gt41
42
Institutional systems Labor markets
  • Educational Development
  • Employee mobility
  • Quality of training/management development
  • Pay/performance and motivation
  • Receptivity to foreign managers
  • Laws and regulations on labor reduction
  • Consumer receptivity to new products/services
  • Ability to deploy foreign nationals and hire/fire
    local employees

Source Khanna, T., Palepu, K., Sinha, J.
2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets.
Harvard Business Review, June
gt42
43
Institutional systems Capital markets
  • Development of banking/insurance/ securities
  • Ownership/transparency of institutions
  • Sophistication/liquidity of debt/equity markets
  • Reliability/quality of information on markets
  • Corporate governance/board independence
  • Regulatory effectiveness
  • Takeover/bankruptcy laws

Source Khanna, T., Palepu, K., Sinha, J.
2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets.
Harvard Business Review, June
gt43
44
Emerging market institutionsShape, adapt, or
withdraw?
  • Shape Institutional system in flux may be
    subject to shaping (China/financial services,
    health care?)
  • Adapt Established and well-developed
    institutional system suggests adaptation (Chile,
    telecom)
  • Withdraw Inferior and unpredictable
    institutional system suggests withdrawal
    (Venezuela, Bolivia oil and gas)

Source Khanna, T., Palepu, K., Sinha, J.
2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets.
Harvard Business Review, June
gt44
45
Reflection Question
  • Which institutional category is most important
    for the industry or area you cover?
  • Which specific aspect of that institutional
    category is most important?
  • Can you think of a specific example of how a firm
    shaped and emerging markets institutional
    environment?

46
Global-local relationships
  • Global companies seek partners with local
    knowledge, distribution, government connections
  • Local companies seek avenues into global economy
    and seek foreign partners with technology,
    managerial expertise, brand
  • Local governments seek relationships that capture
    employment, technology and other direct/indirect
    benefits and often serve as intermediaries

Adapted from authors reseearch and Adarkar, A.,
Adil, A., Ernst, D., and Vaish, P.
Emerging
market alliances Must they be win-lose?
McKinsey Quarterly, 4 120137.
gt46
47
Four possible outcomes of Global-local alliance
Sustainable Power balance
Power shift toward local partner
Power shift toward global partner
Initial alliance
Power collision
gt47
48
Global-local relationships Hofstedes Cultural
Dimensions
Power Distance
  • Extent to which less powerful members of
    institutions and organisations accept that power
    is distributed unequally
  • High power distance countries people blindly
    obey orders of superiors, centralised
    organisation structures
  • Low power distance countries flatter and
    decentralised organisation structures, smaller
    ratio of supervisors

Adapted from Hofstede, G. H. 2001. Cultures
consequences Comparing values, behaviors,
institutions, and
organizations across nations, 2nd ed. Thousand
Oaks, CA Sage.
gt48
49
Global-local relationships Hofstedes Cultural
Dimensions
Power Distance
  • Extent to which people feel threatened by
    ambiguous situations and have created
    institutions to avoid such situations
  • High uncertainty avoidance countries people have
    high need for security, structured organisational
    activities, more written rules, less risk taking
  • Low uncertainty avoidance countries more willing
    to accept risks associated with unknown, less
    structured organisational activities, fewer
    written rules, more risk taking by managers

Uncertainty Avoidance
Adapted from Hofstede, G. H. 2001. Cultures
consequences Comparing values, behaviors,
institutions, and
organizations across nations, 2nd ed. Thousand
Oaks, CA Sage.
gt49
50
Global-local relationships Hofstedes Cultural
Dimensions
  • Individualism Tendency of people to look after
    themselves/family
  • Countries high in individualism support work
    ethic, greater individual initiative, merit
    promotions
  • Collectivism Tendency of people to belong to
    groups or collectives and to look after each
    other
  • Countries high in collectivism less support of
    work ethic, less individual initiative, seniority
    promotions

Power Distance
Uncertainty Avoidance
Individualism/ Collectivism
Adapted from Hofstede, G. H. 2001. Cultures
consequences Comparing values, behaviors,
institutions, and
organizations across nations, 2nd ed. Thousand
Oaks, CA Sage.
gt50
51
Global-local relationships Hofstedes Cultural
Dimensions
  • Masculinity dominant social values are success,
    money, things
  • Countries high in masculinity great importance
    on earnings, recognition, advancement, challenge,
    and wealth.
  • Femininity a culture in which the dominate
    social values are caring for others and the
    quality of life
  • Countries high in femininity importance on
    cooperation, group decision, employment security.

Power Distance
Uncertainty Avoidance
Individualism/Collectivism
Masculinity/ Femininity
Adapted from Hofstede, G. H. 2001. Cultures
consequences Comparing values, behaviors,
institutions, and
organizations across nations, 2nd ed. Thousand
Oaks, CA Sage.
gt51
52
Cultural rankings of emerging markets, US and EU
53
Outline of our Session
Key global trends and the rise of emerging
markets
Emerging markets as laboratories of innovation
Emerging markets business systems and
relationships
Emerging markets and the economic crisis
54
Global pushback against business
55
Global pushback against business
  • Prior to crisis, some developing/emerging markets
    questioning Western economic models (Washington
    consensus)
  • Trend especially apparent in Latin America
    (Venezuala, Ecuador and Bolivia)
  • China, others blame crisis on U.S. and capital
    markets model of finance
  • In general, however, emerging markets doing
    better than developed countries throughout crisis
    with some exceptions (Central/Eastern Europe)

gt55
56
In U.S., trust in business at lowest
levelincluding post-Enron
Enron, the dot-com bust and September 11
U.S. is the new Europe
  • Source Edelman Trust Barometer 2009

57
Trust in leaders
NGO leaders
Leaders at the U.N.
Spiritual/religious leaders
Leaders of Western Europe
Managers of global economy
Managers of national economy
Executives of MNCs
Leaders of the U.S.A.
Percentage Saying A Lot and Some Trust
Average Across All Countries Surveyed
Trust in Leaders Percentage Saying A Lot and
Some Trust
Source Edelman Trust Barometer 2009
58
Technology most trusted industry sector globally
Source Edelman Trust Barometer 2009
59
Global economic crisis indicators
  • Global growth est. cut by 2.6 points by World
    bank March 2009 vs. November 2008 forecast
  • 2009 down turn in world
  • GDP and trade

Global Economic Prospects 2009 Forecast Update,
World Bank, March 30, 2009, http//siteresources.w
orldbank.org/INTGEP2009/Resources/5530448-12384663
39289/GEP-Update-March30.pdf
gt59
60
Real GDP growth forecast (March 2009)(percent
change from previous year)
Source World Bank. Notes a GDP in 2000
constant dollars, 2000 prices and market exchange
rates. b GDP measured at 2000 PPP weights. c.
GDP figures for South Asia refer to fiscal years
(FY). The FY runs from Jul-1 through Jun-30 in
Pakistan and Bangladesh and from Apr-1 through
Mar-31 in India. Due to reporting practices,
where FY2007/08 is reported in 2008 for Pakistan
and Bangladesh and in 2007 for India, there is an
illusion of a lag in the impact of the global
crisis upon Pakistan and Bangladesh compared with
India.
gt60
61
Global economic crisis indicators
  • Global GDP estimated to have fallen by 5 percent
    in the fourth quarter (annualized), led by
    advanced economies, which contracted by 7
    percent.
  • GDP declined in the fourth quarter by around 6
    percent in both the U.S. and Euro area, plummeted
    at a post-war record of13 percent in Japan.
  • Growth also plunged across a broad swath of
    emerging economies, reflecting the confluence of
    weakening external demand, tightening financing
    constraints, and plunging commodity prices.

Source IMF Report Global Economic Policies and
Prospects, Group of Twenty Meeting of the
Ministers and Central Bank Governors, March
1314, 2009, London, U.K.
gt61
62
Vulnerabilities of European banks with
substantial exposures to Central/Eastern Europe
  • The vulnerabilities of banks with substantial
    exposures to Central and Eastern Europe are
    raising perceptions of sovereign risk in
    advanced economies. Many banks exposures are
    high relative to their home country GDP. Austrian
    banks exposures, for example, amount to about 75
    percent of Austrias GDP.
  • Other countries with relatively high exposures to
    emerging Europe include Switzerland, Belgium, the
    Netherlands, and Sweden.

Source IMF Report Global Economic Policies and
Prospects, Group of Twenty Meeting of the
Ministers and Central Bank Governors, March
1314, 2009, London, U.K.
63
Vulnerability indicators by region Current
account balance
  • Over the past few years, current account balances
    have become more divergent. Emerging Europe has
    seen large and sustained deficits, while many
    countries in Asia, the Middle East, and the
    Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have
    shifted to surpluses partly because of the
    commodity price boom.

Source IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO), April
2009, http//www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009
/01/index.htm
64
Economic IndicatorsRetail Sales
Source IMF Report Global Economic Policies and
Prospects, Group of Twenty Meeting of the
Ministers and Central Bank Governors, March
1314, 2009, London, U.K.
65
Economic IndicatorsCommodity Prices and Inflation
Source IMF Report Global Economic Policies and
Prospects, Group of Twenty Meeting of the
Ministers and Central Bank Governors, March
1314, 2009, London, U.K.
66
The Collapse Of Emerging-Market Currencies
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Lessons of
the Financial Crisis, Council Special Report No.
45, March 2009, http//www.cfr.org/publication/by_
type/special_report.html
67
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF
(historical data for 1 yr prior to May 18, 2009)
Source iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF,
MarketWatch, 19 May 2009, http//www.marketwatch.c
om/investing/fund/EEM/charts
68
Outline of our Session
Key global trends and the rise of emerging
markets
Emerging markets as laboratories of innovation
Emerging markets business systems and
relationships
Emerging markets and the economic crisis
69
Emerging markets as laboratories of innovation
  • Strategy is revolution everything else is
    tactics Gary Hamel
  • Challenging dominant logic New game, rules
  • Take any industry - three kinds of companies
  • rule makers - incumbents that built the industry,
    e.g. United Airlines or IBM
  • rule takers - companies that pay homage to the
    industrial lords, e.g. US Airways or Olivetti
  • rule breakers - industry revolutionaries intent
    on overturning order, e.g. Southwest or Dell
  • For companies in categories 1,2 emerging markets
    provide laboratory to move to 3

gt69
70
Innovation in emerging markets
  • One innovation strategy for emerging markets
    focuses on the Base of the Pyramid
  • To date, focus has been on upper and middle-class
    consumers in emerging markets
  • BOP shifts emphasize to larger segment of lower
    income consumers that have been largely ignored
  • Provides opportunity for integration of economic
    strategy and dramatic growth through product and
    process innovation

gt70
71
The world pyramid
Purchasing Power Parity in U.S. dollars
Population in millions
200-300
gt20,000
Tier 1
2,000-20,000
600-800
Tiers 2- 3
lt2,000
5500
Tier 4
gt71
72
Distribution of income and MNC strategy
Traditional and emerging focus for India
Traditional MNC Business Model
10-20 million, Rich
Some MNCs?
PPPgt 15,000, 70-100 m
Local Firms
PPP 5-15,000, 150m
Future Opportunity?
PPP 2-15,000, 200m
PPP gt 2000, 600m
Source CK Prahalad
gt72
73
Innovation via Base of the Pyramid (BOP)
  • Pursuing the base forces rethinking of
    conventional wisdom about
  • Technology and business models
  • Scale and profitability
  • Price-performance relationships
  • Productivity and capital efficiency
  • Sustainable development

gt73
74
BOP PG
  • Created Nutristar childrens powdered health
    drink
  • initially failed in Philippines
  • re-launched in Venezuela with help of NGOs,
    USAID,
  • PuR water filtration system for low-income
    households marketed as single serving sachets
  • contain same ingredients as municipal water
    systems
  • Each sachet is treats up to 10 liters of water
  • One sachet added to a bucket of dirty water
    forces all bacteria, viruses and pollutants to
    bottom

gt74
75
BOP PG in China
  • Former view make best, then cut cost now
    cheaper and better
  • Product adaptation (using local RD) for
    middle-low-income
  • Basic toothpaste using salt as cleaning agent
  • Expand sales of Tide beyond top 8 consumers by
    creating simpler formulas - Tide Clean White no
    softener because unnecessary for hand washing
  • Sell diapers to consumer who did not see need
    make attractive by getting more hours of
    absorbency
  • Greater China revenues up from 1.1 billion in
    2000 to 2.5 billion in 2007 6 of total

gt75
76
Tatas Nano
  • 2009 Tata unveils world's cheapest car -
    100,000 rupees (1250)
  • Vehicle aimed at Indian and other developing
    countries where car ownership is low competes
    against bicycles and motorcycles
  • Engine 600-800cc mark goal is to sell 1 million
    units within 5 years

gt76
77
Tatas Nano
  • Ratan Tata told his designers that the vehicle
    must not be seen as stripped- down version of a
    normal car
  • To keep costs low, many parts made of plastic and
    other composites
  • Car to be sold in kit form, with final assembly
    of the vehicles to be completed in rural
    workshops in India

gt77
78
Tatas Nano
gt78
79
GE in China
  • GE launching 6 billion health-care initiative
    that called "healthymagination
  • Resetting GE's health-care business toward rural
    and emerging markets and priorities of the Obama
    Administration
  • Develop and deploy low-cost equipment, such as
    the portable ultrasounds already being used in
    developing regions
  • Focus on services that help hospitals become more
    efficient and on health-care information
    technology

gt79
80
GE in China
  • Bulk of new spending will be 3 billion RD
    development investment over the next six years
    into affordable health-care equipment designed
    for underserved populations in emerging markets
  • 1/2 of unit's spending for products/services that
    expand health care/reduce costs by 15
  • GE will launch 50 basic products tailored to
    rural or emerging markets, such as the
    lightweight portable EKGs machines the company
    has developed for India.
  • "You can deal with change, or you can get out in
    front of it," says GE Healthcare CEO John Dineen
  • GE Video

gt80
81
Reflection Question
  • What are the long-term prospects for MNEs from
    developed countries wishing to succeed in
    emerging markets? Which firms from which
    industries will thrive and which will suffer?
  • What are the long-term prospects for emerging
    markets MNEs wishing to succeed in developed
    country markets? Which firms from which
    industries will thrive and which will suffer?

82
Outline of our Session
Key global trends and the rise of emerging
markets
Emerging markets as laboratories of innovation
Emerging markets business systems and
relationships
Emerging markets and the economic crisis
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