The Transition to High School: Initial HS Experiences and 9th Grade Failure

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The Transition to High School Initial HS
Experiences and 9th Grade Failure

• Jerald R. Herting
• October 19th
• UW-BHS Project Workshop

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So why be concerned about the initial 9th grade
experience?
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9th Grade Facts

• 16 of first time 9th graders have GPA lt 1
• 37 have GPA below 2.0
• 35 of all students fail at least one class
  during first semester of 9th grade
• Prevalent across all student subgroups
• 9th Grade downturn is experienced across a
  spectrum of 8th grade performance (i.e. not just
  the past poor performers)
• 9th Grade GPA is major predictor of high school
  completion

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A place for policy and intervention

• Understanding the risks and processes of success
  and failure identify what can be changed
• Intervention programs/initiatives have targeted
  features of this transition and it is worthwhile
  to examine these program effects
• To what degree are targeted features related to
  9th grade success or failure

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Transition to High School Study

• 9th grade survey of students
• 65 question pencil and paper survey of all
  9th graders
• Conducted 6th week of classesprior to quarter
  grades
• Educational experiences and expectations
• 8th grade survey of teachers
• All 8th grade teachers evaluate the likelihood
  that the student will have academic or behavioral
  problems or be at risk of dropping out in high
  school.
• School records
• Match school records (grades, etc) surveys
• Coverage (Year 2004 and 2005)
• Response rate 71 for students enrolled in
  district for 8th and 9th grades

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Making the transition
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Theoretical Model
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Intervention Model
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Key features of initial 9th grade experience

• Preparedness (lack of)
• 4 items
• I find it difficult to be ready for class
• Achievement Orientation
• 1 item
• How far would you like to go in school
• School Engagement/Attachment
• 7 items
• I think that it is important to have a high
  grade point average

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Some descriptive bivariate relations

• Risk and Family SES
• 8th grade performance
• Initial experience in HS

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9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Gender
Statistically significant difference at the .01
level
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9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Family Intactness
Statistically significant difference at the .01
level
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9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by 8th Grade GPA
8th GPA Median 2.95 Mean 2.79
Statistically significant difference at the .01
level
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9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic
Orientation Educational Expectations
Statistically significant difference at the .01
level
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9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Student Academic
Preparation Perception of Workload in 9th grade
Note A high value on scale indicates difficult
workload
Statistically significant difference at the .01
level
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9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by
Student Academic Engagement Scale
Statistically significant difference at the .01
level
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Multivariate AnalysisPart One
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What predicts initial HS experiences

• Preparedness (lack of)
• 8th grade performance, ethnicity, gender,
  parental education
• Achievement Orientation
• 8th grade performance, ethnicity, gender,
  parental education, low SES
• Engagement
• 8th grade performance, ethnicity, parental
  education

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Multivariate AnalysisPart Two
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Predicting 9th Grade GPA
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Discussion/Summary

• Direct impact of initial HS experience
• Preparedness, orientation, engagement all affect
  9th grade performance
• Continued effects of past achievement
• Continued effects of background

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Strategic Intervention
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Next steps

• Explore the role of school context
• Effects of initiatives at middle schools
• Effects of WSA
• Presence of scholarship
• Restructuring of HS
• Two features to explore
• Do such initiatives add directly to prevent
  failure/encourage achievement
• Do they enhance effects of initial HS experience

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Thanks to---

• BHS study group
• Nick Pharris-Ciurej and Patty Glynn for providing
  assistance with data and analysis
• Joe Willhoft and Robin Munson for initial help in
  starting the 9th grade project
• Tacoma Public Schools

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9th Grade 1st Semester GPA by Race/Ethnicity
Median 3.05
Median 2.12
Median 2.19
Median 1.92
Median 2.78
A statistically significant difference exists
between this and all other groups
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Predicting 9th Grade GPA