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Global Warming and Energy

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Title: Global Warming and Energy


1
Global Warming and Energy
  • June 20, 2006
  • Maria A. Barrufet

2
Global Warming
  • Global warming refers to the gradual increase of
    the Earths temperature because of energy trapped
    by the Earths atmosphere
  • The retention of the heat by the atmosphere is
    called the greenhouse effect

3
Agenda
ENERGY
FACTS FACTOIDS
POLITICS
ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL WARMING
4
A hostile climate (Ice Ages) made life hard for
our ancestors
5
Earth Energy Balance
6
As a result of a favorable climate, population
grew
World Population Growth, 17502150
And so did energy
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects, The 1998 Revision and estimates by
the Population Reference Bureau.
7
And so did energy offspring
  • Antihistamines
  • Antiseptics
  • Artificial hearts
  • Clothing
  • Pacemakers
  • Fertilizers
  • Food preservatives and storage bags
  • Heart valve replacements
  • Insecticides
  • Toothpaste and dentures
  • Vitamin capsules

8
U.S. energy use doubled since 1960
9
Clean Dirty Energy Sources
Source EIA International Energy Outlook 2001
10
Altered Carbon Dioxide Balance
11
Why is the Carbon Cycle Important?
  • Carbon dioxide is the main anthropogenic
    greenhouse gas
  • We have significantly altered the CO2 balance of
    the atmosphere
  • We need to implement measures to slow the
    increase rate of CO2 in the atmosphere

12
Global warming enhanced by emissions of man-made
gases
Source Climate Change, State of Knowledge,
OSTP, 1997
13
CO2 contributed most to global warming over past
century
14
Permanent Variable Gases in the Atmosphere
  • Permanent gases in the atmosphere include
  • Nitrogen 78.1
  • Oxygen 20.9
  • Argon 0.9
  • Neon 0.002
  • Helium 0.0005
  • Krypton 0.0001
  • Hydrogen 0.00005
  • Variable gases in the atmosphere (greenhouse
    gases)
  • Water vapor 0 to 4
  • Carbon Dioxide 0.035
  • Methane 0.0002
  • Ozone 0.000004
  • CFCs (not naturally occurring)

15
Relative Concerns Over Greenhouse gases
  • Several gases act as heat sinks in the atmosphere
  • CO2
  • CFCs
  • Methane
  • Water vapor
  • CO2 is the largest concern, being the largest
    constituent of the atmosphere
  • Methane holds more heat, but because it is
    chemically more active, its atmospheric duration
    is about 10 years
  • CFCs hold much more heat, and last a very long
    time, but still are a smaller portion

16
CFC - Fluorocarbons
  • Only anthropogenic
  • CFCs come from
  • Refrigerants
  • Styrofoam, foaming agents
  • Cleaning electronics
  • Spray propellants

17
Have we significantly altered the CO2 balance of
the atmosphere?
  • Are current CO2 levels unprecedented?
  • Yet it has been over 16-18 times higher in the
    past.
  • Was in the air long before there was free O2

Source Bruce R. Peachey, President New Paradigm
Engineering
18
CO2 is building up in the atmosphere
Source Climate Change, State of Knowledge,
OSTP, 1997
19
Earths temperature continues to rise rapidly
Source Climate Change, State of Knowledge,
OSTP, 1997
20
Increased atmospheric CO2 leads to
  • Increasingly unpredictable weather patterns
  • Increase in species migrations and extinctions
  • Rising sea levels
  • Health effects from the spread of tropical
    diseases, heat waves, and so-called natural
    disasters
  • Loss of agricultural land in developing countries
  • Disappearance of ecosystems

21
Reliable Information Sources
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/
ann/ann05.html
22
Hurricanes Global Warming
23
2005 - Record Number of Storms(27 named, 15
hurricanes)

24
Hurricane ? Warming Relation
25
Earth is projected to grow warmer
Source Univ. of East Anglia, IPCC
26
What is the evidence for global warming?
Data Source  NCEP ( National Centers for
Environmental Prediction) US. http//ingrid.ldeo
.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Temp/Anomaly_Lo
ops.html
27
Artic Melting
www.net.org/ warming/stills.html
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, November
2004
28
The polar ice cap is melting
29
Selected Examples Human toll of heat wave,
August 2003
30
Warming Not Happening?
  • Various reports and data adjustments both ways
  • Historical record is not long
  • Motivation and accuracy of measurement not
    constant
  • Are we comparing apples and oranges?

31
Global Temperature Increases
  • 1980-90 Transition to digital temperature
    measurement
  • Truncated readings?

32
The growing trend in global CO2 emissions
Source IPCC WGIII
33
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
34
Rating Greenhouse Gases
35
Top 16 Carbon Emitters Tonnes/Capita
  • U.S. Virgin Islands (21.6) Qatar (16.9)
  • United Arab Emirates (11.5) Luxembourg (7.6)
  • Aruba (6.9) Brunei Darussalem (6.8)
  • Bahrain (6.5) Netherlands Antilles (6.3)
  • Wake Island (5.2) United States (5.2)
  • Falkland Islands (5.1) Singapore (4.9)
  • Trinidad Tobago (4.5) St. Pierre Michelon
    (4.3)
  • Australia (4.2) Canada (4.1)

36
Sheep Cattle Cause 20 of Pollution in Australia
37
What do we do to lower the rate of GHGs in the
atmosphere?
Common sense solutions
38
Common sense goals to cope with the climate threat
  • Reduce CO2 and other GHG emissions
  • Require world economy to become much more
    efficient
  • Start a world-wide shift from fossil to
    non-fossil energy sources
  • Adaptation - A Necessary Response
  • Reduce current forest clearance rates

39
Long Run Perspectives for Energy Demand
  • Demand for energy will continue to grow, linked
    to population growth and economic activity
  • Growth will be fastest in the developing world
    and weakest in Eastern Europe / FSU
  • A shift to low carbon, clean fuels will favor
    natural gas and renewables

40
Projected Increase in Energy Demand
41
Energy for the New Millennium
  • Where do we stand and where do we go?
  • From vision to implementation
  • Energy and economy
  • Environmental compliance
  • Our role in the future

42
Long-Term Planning
43
What shall we do about it?
44
CO2 Mitigation Options
Reduce
Use
Dispose
Energy Efficiency New Technology Fuel Choice Stop
Leaks, Flares, Venting
EOR EGR ECBM Agriculture Forests Chemicals
Saline Aquifers Depleted Reservoirs Coal
beds Deep Ocean
Source Advanced Resources International
45
Moving Towards Low Carbon Energy Supply
46
Decarbonization Trend
100
H
H
Projected
(HC)
C
.90
10
Non-fossil
Hydrogen
Methane H/C 4
.80
Methane Economy
Oil H/C 2
.67
Coal H/C 1
.50
1
1935 (midpoint of process)
Wood H/C 0.1
.09
0.1
0.01
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
Source Ausubel, American Scientist, March-April
1996
Year
47
What have we accomplished?
  • Today it would take 37 new cars to produce the
    same tailpipe emissions as one new car in the
    1960s
  • Emissions from new cars are 95 lower than those
    in the 60s
  • Major multinational oil companies are setting
    international standards for safety and
    environmental performance

48
Before
49
After
50
For the record
  • The U.S. oil and natural gas industry employs
    nearly 1.4 million people
  • Between 1990 and 2000, the U.S. oil and natural
    gas industry spent about 98 billion to protect
    the nations environment
  • Oil has a second life by recycling

51
Photovoltaics (PV) produce power with no
emissions or moving parts
52
Energy Sources in USA
  • Renewable 6
  • Solar 1
  • Wind 2
  • Share of total energy (0.18 of total use)

53
Concentrating the Sun
Solar thermal devices use direct heat from the
sun, concentrating it to produce heat at useful
temperatures. The modern solar industry began
with the oil embargo of 1973-1974. The growth of
the solar industry during this period of fuel
shortages and high prices (1974-1984) soared from
45 solar collector manufacturing firms to 225
firms
http//www.rpc.com.au/products/panels/pvmodules/pv
modules.html
Accessed February, 2006
54
Solar Architecture Examples
Austria - Institute for Marketing
55
Wind Power
U.S. wind power map. Source United States
National Renewable Energy Laboratory http//rredc.
nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html
(accessed February, 2006)
56
Wind power sources growing rapidly worldwide
57
Alternative Energy Sources
TOTAL INSTALLED U.S. WIND ENERGY CAPACITY 6,740
MW as of Jan 24, 2005
58
Cape Wind Project
  • At least five miles offshore
  • Strong, consistent winds and shallow water

59
Pros of the Project
  • Replaces 113 million tons of oil per year
  • Zero-emissions
  • Boost to Cape Cods economy (600-1,000 new jobs
    for Cape Codders)
  • Does not require land
  • May help with navigation and rescue


60
Typical Turbine Dimensions
61
Future of Energy Markets Renewables (BP Source)
62
Assumptions to lower CO2 emissions by 2/3 by 2100
  • Global supply of renewable (wind, PV, hydro)
    would increase to 50 by 2100
  • Biofuels from trees, agricultural wastes,
    municipal wastes, would account for 30 of
    supply by 2100
  • Nuclear would be phased out by 2100
  • Coal, oil, and natural gas would fall to 18 of
    global supply from its present value of 80

63
Energy supply The global transition to
non-fossil energy
Mtoe
64
Are Bio Fuels Competitive?
  • Bio-fuel combustion does produce CO2 as well
  • Energy intensity of ethanol and methanol compared
    to diesel are about 56 and 46 respectively

65
Are Bio Fuels Competitive?
  • Major pollution from aerosols formed during
    combustion of some bio-fuels (solid
    particulates)
  • May cause respiratory problems
  • Reserves not unlimited
  • More technological barriers to overcome than
    conventional energy
  • However aerosols have a cooling effect as
    opposed to GHG

66
What else to do to lower the rate of GHH in the
atmosphere?
New policies to enforce and monitor actions taken
67
Policies ?Kyoto
  • December 1997, International Agreement to reduce
    CO2 emissions to 1990 levels, with further
    reductions over time
  • Agreement between 160 signatories, who represent
    individual countries and territories
  • Established that these reductions in CO2 are
    legally binding

68
What happened to the Kyoto protocol?
69
US Response
  • I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts
    80 of the world, including major population
    centers such as China and India.
  • Pres. G. W. Bush
  • (Letter from Bush to Sens. Hagel, Helms, Craig,
    and Roberts. March 13, 2001)

70
Global CO2 Emissions
  • (Source
  • Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center)

71
Proposed Alternatives
72
An Inconvenient Truth
73
Project Clean Skies
  • Cuts power plant emissions of nitrogen oxides,
    sulfur dioxide, mercury
  • Cuts greenhouse gases (by 18)
  • Supports more research
  • Supports American workers
  • Includes developing world

74
Clean Development Mechanism
  • Improves air quality by market-based approach
  • Developed countries receive credits for reduction
  • Incentives for project activities in developing
    countries

75
Discussions
76
Conflicting Views
  • Energy use warming atmosphere
  • Warming is (not) happening
  • GHGs trapping solar heat
  • Human impact minor or beneficial
  • Cant afford the solutions
  • Wind, biomass, solar, nuclear, hydroelectric and
    other energy supplies have their own problems

77
The Balance of Evidence - Says...
  • Warming IS happening
  • Waste of fossil fuels IS a real problem
  • GHGs trapping SOME solar heat
  • Energy use IS warming atmosphere
  • Human impact COULD BE harmful or beneficial
  • Cant afford SOME solutions

78
Does It Matter Which View is Right?
  • Likely no one view is entirely right
  • By the time we are sure which is most right, it
    may be too late
  • What is the best strategy?

79
Global Warming Energy Use or Abuse
THANKS
  • Maria A. Barrufet

80
Global energy Web sites
  • www/iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.pvGl
    obal Energy Perspectives
  • www.undp.org/seed/eap/United Nations Development
    Program
  • www.worldenergy.org/World Energy Council
  • www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea/
  • World Energy Assessment

81
References
  • www.ipcc.ch/The Intergovernmental Panel on
    Climate Change
  • www.usgcrp.gov/US Global Change Research
    Program
  • globalchange.gov/Gateway to Global Change Data
  • www.globalchange.org/Global Change, Electronic
    Edition
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