PPA 573 Emergency Management and Homeland Security

1
PPA 573 Emergency Management and Homeland
Security

• Lecture 5a Natural, Medical, and Technological
  Hazards Risk Assessment

2
Hazards An Introduction

• Hazard
• A source of danger that may or may not lead to an
  emergency or disaster and is named after the
  emergency or disaster that could be so
  precipitated.
• Risk
• Susceptibility to death, injury, damage,
  destruction, disruption, stoppage, and so forth.
• Disaster
• Event that demands substantial crisis response
  requiring the use of government powers and
  resources beyond the scope of one line agency or
  service.

3
Hazards An Introduction

• Hazard identification is the foundation of all
  emergency management activities.
• When hazards react with the human or built
  environment, the risks associated with that
  hazard can be assessed.

4
Hazards An Introduction

• Understanding the risk posed by identified
  hazards is the basis for preparedness planning
  and mitigation actions.
• Risk, when realized, such as in the event of an
  earthquake, tornado, flood, and so on, becomes a
  disaster that prompts emergency response and
  recovery activities.
• All emergency management activities are
  predicated on the identification and assessment
  of hazards and risks.

5
Natural Hazards - Climatic

• Floods.
• Slow or fast rising. Develop over a period of
  days.
• Large-scale weather systems with prolonged
  rainfall or onshore winds.
• Also caused by locally intense thunderstorms,
  snowmelt, ice jams, and dam breaks.
• Flash floods have little or no warning.
• Floods are the most common type of disaster,
  accounting for 51 percent (61 with storm surge)
  of all disaster requests to the federal
  government.
• FEMA estimates that more than 9 million
  households and 390 billion in property are at
  risk of flooding.

6
Flooding Case Study Great Midwestern Floods 1993

• 534 counties in nine states (17 of counties in
  U.S.).
• Federal costs 4.2 billion in direct federal
  assistance, 1.3 billion in federal flood
  insurance payments, and more than 621 million in
  federal loans to individuals, businesses, and
  communities.
• Federal payments came from FEMA, USDA, SBA, HUD,
  DOC, USACE, HHS, DOE, DOL, EPA, and DOI.

7
Natural Hazards - Climatic

• Hurricanes all hurricanes start as tropical
  waves that grow in intensity and size to tropical
  depressions, which in turn grow to be tropical
  storms (39 to 73 mph).
• Hurricanes have wind speeds in excess of 74 mph.
  Eye is 20 to 30 miles wide. May extend outward
  400 miles.
• Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
  August to September are the peak months.
• Most of the deaths and damages from hurricanes
  arise from storm surge.

8
Hurricanes

• Storm and hurricane scales.
• Beaufort Scale of wind intensity.
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
• Notable hurricanes in U.S. history.
• Hurricane Katrina video

9
Natural Disasters - Climatic

• Tornadoes.
• A tornado is a rapidly rotating vortex or funnel
  of air extending groundward from a cumulonimbus
  cloud.
• Approximately 1,000 tornadoes are spawned by
  thunderstorms each year. Most remain aloft as
  funnel clouds.
• Tornadoes can lift and move heavy objects,
  destroy or move whole buildings, and siphon large
  volumes of water.
• Tornadoes follow the path of least resistance,
  making residents of valleys most vulnerable.

10
Tornadoes

• Tornado Scales.
• Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale.
• Case Study Super Outbreak, April 3-4, 1974.

11
Natural Disasters - Climatic

• Snow and ice storms.
• Severe winter storms consist of extreme cold and
  heavy concentrations of snowfall or ice. A
  blizzard combines heavy snowfall, high winds,
  extreme cold, and ice storms.
• NW cyclonic weather systems from the North
  Pacific or Aleutian Island region.
• Midwest and Upper Plains Canadian and Arctic
  cold fronts.
• NE Lake effect snowstorms.
• Eastern and NE extra-tropical cyclonic weather
  systems.
• Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale.

12
Natural Disasters Other Climatic

• Landslides or mudslides.
• Droughts
• Palmer Drought Severity Index.
• NNDC Climate Data Online.
• Wildfires.
• Surface fire, ground fire, crown fire.
• Wildland fires, interface or intermix fires,
  firestorms, prescribed fires.
• Extreme heat.

13
Natural Disasters Other Climatic

• Coastal erosion.
• Thunderstorms.
• Snow avalanches.
• Hailstorms.

14
Natural Disasters - Geological

• Earthquakes.
• An earthquake is a sudden, rapid shaking of the
  earth caused by the breaking and shifting of rock
  beneath the earths surface.
• This shaking can cause buildings and bridges to
  collapse disrupt gas, electric, and phone
  service and sometimes trigger landslides,
  avalanches, flash floods, fires, and tsunamis.
• Buildings with foundations resting on
  unconsolidated landfill, old waterways, or other
  unstable soil are most at risk.

15
Earthquakes

• Earthquake scales.
• Richter and Modified Mercalli Scales (next
  slide).
• Moment Magnitude Scale.
• Case Study Alaskan Earthquake 1964.

16
(No Transcript)
17
Earthquake Case Study Alaskan Quake 1964

• On March 27, 1964 at 536 p.m., south central
  Alaska suffered the second largest earthquake in
  recorded human history. The estimated moment
  magnitude (Mw) of 9.2 (Sokolowski 2002) was only
  exceeded by the Chilean earthquake of 1960 (Mw
  9.5). The duration of the Alaskan quake was
  approximately four minutes. By contrast, the
  Northridge earthquake in 1994 (Mw 6.7) lasted
  only fifteen seconds and the San Francisco
  earthquake of 1906 (Mw 7.9) lasted between thirty
  and forty-five seconds.

18
Earthquake Case Study Alaskan Quake 1964

• The area of serious damage extended 50,000 square
  miles the area experiencing the quake covered
  1,000,000 square miles. The affected area
  contained 60 percent of the states population
  and 55 percent of the economic activity. The
  number of deaths totaled 115 the estimated
  damages were 311 million. The greatest
  structural damage occurred in Anchorage, Alaska,
  seventy-five miles west of the epicenter of the
  quake. Most of the deaths were the result of
  seismic sea waves (tsunamis), one of which struck
  2,500 miles away in Crescent City, California.

19
Earthquake Case Study Alaskan Quake 1964

• The earthquake disrupted the normal operation of
  local and state government.4 As a result, the
  U.S. military played a critical role in the first
  response to the disaster. The military provided
  emergency communications, aided power companies
  in restoring service, served meals within two
  hours of the quake, provided security and direct
  relief to the Greater Anchorage area and
  virtually all of the other stricken areas in
  Alaska (FRDPCA 1964). Federal civilian response
  followed quickly. Alaska Governor William Egan
  formally requested that President Lyndon Johnson
  declare a major disaster under the Federal
  Disaster Act of 1950 (P.L. 81-875) on the morning
  of March 28, 1964. The President granted the
  request later that afternoon.

20
Earthquake Case Study Alaskan Quake 1964

• Immediately after the declaration, the Office of
  Emergency Planning (OEP) assigned specific
  disaster response and recovery missions to the
  Army Corps of Engineers the Navy Bureau of Yards
  and Docks the Federal Aviation Agency the
  Bureau of Public Roads the Alaska State Highway
  Department several cabinet departments
  (Interior, Health, Education, and Welfare HEW,
  Labor, Agriculture, Commerce, and Treasury), and
  a number of independent agencies. On June 12 OEP
  requested and President Johnson allocated 17
  million from the Presidents Disaster Relief
  Fund, which was used primarily to reimburse
  federal agencies for the emergency work they
  performed.

21
Earthquake Case Study Alaskan Quake 1964

• Concerned about the magnitude of the disaster
  relative to state resources and the absence of
  mechanisms to ensure recovery, President Johnson
  issued Executive Order 11150 establishing the
  Federal Reconstruction and Development Planning
  Commission (FRDPCA) on April 2, 1964. The
  Commission consisted of the Secretaries of
  Defense, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor,
  and HEW the Director of the Office of Emergency
  Planning the Administrators of the Federal
  Aviation Agency, the Housing and Home Finance
  Agency, and Small Business Administration and
  the Chairman of the Federal Power Commission.
  U.S. Senator Clinton P. Anderson (Democrat-New
  Mexico) chaired the commission.

22
Earthquake Case Study Alaskan Quake 1964

• The Commission focused largely on five tasks
  damage analyses, soil studies, engineering
  practice, price monitoring, and reconstruction
  planning. The Commission supervised the
  disbursement of 155 to 222 million of federal
  aid to state and local governments, 87 to 110
  million of federal aid to private individuals and
  groups, and 82 million for restoration of
  federal facilities and direct federal operations.
  In short, the federal government reimbursed
  virtually all of the private and public costs
  associated with the disaster.

23
Natural Disasters - Geological

• Volcanic eruptions.
• Mountain that opens downward to a reservoir of
  molten rock.
• Volcanoes are built up from their own eruptive
  products.
• Pressure from gases and molten rock cause
  eruptions.
• Unlike other disasters, volcanoes give months of
  forewarning.
• Volcanoes can produce tsunamis, flash floods,
  earthquakes, rock falls, and mudflows.

24
Volcanic Eruptions

• Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI).
• Additional link.
• Mt. St. Helens video (still pictures).

25
Volcanic Eruptions Mt. St. Helens, 1980
26
Case Study Mt. St. Helens

• On March 20, 1980, a moderate earthquake of 4.1
  on Richter scale occurred under Mount St. Helens
  in southwestern Washington.8 Multiple microquakes
  of varying intensity occurred on March 21 and 22,
  and continued throughout the eruption period.
  The increasing activity prompted seismologists
  and geophysicists from the U.S. Geological Survey
  and the University of Washington to measure
  seismic activity around the volcano. The first
  eruption occurred on March 27, spitting plumes of
  ash and steam 10,000 feet, and forming a
  250-foot-wide crater within the preexisting
  summit crater. Between March 27 and April 21,
  the mountain intermittently spewed ash and steam.
  Visible activity temporarily ceased through the
  rest of April and early May, resuming on May 7.
  However, seismic activity persisted throughout
  the period. The movement of magma began to
  create a bulge on the north face of the mountain.
  In effect, Mount St. Helens was being forcibly
  shaken apart.

27
Case Study Mt. St. Helens

• On Sunday, May 18, 1980, at twenty seconds after
  832 a.m., a magnitude 5.1 earthquake under the
  mountain literally popped the cork on the
  volcano. The bulge on the north flank of the
  mountain collapsed, creating a debris avalanche
  moving laterally down the mountain at speeds
  ranging between 110 and 155 mph. The sudden
  release of pressure unleashed an explosion of
  ash, steam, rock, and hot gases that quickly
  overtook the avalanche, reaching speeds of 670
  mph. The explosion (estimated in intensity at
  the equivalent of ten megatons) created a blast
  zone extending nearly 20 miles. The vertical
  column of ash from the eruption reached heights
  of 50,000 feet and drifted east over Washington,
  Idaho, and Montana, burying some sections of
  Washington under a foot of ash. Hot pyroclastic
  flows also streamed down the north side of the
  mountain. Within hours, melted snow and glacier
  ice mingled with debris and pyroclastic material
  to generate major mudflows down the Toutle and
  Cowlitz rivers, ultimately clogging the Columbia
  River and dumping material into Swift Reservoir.

28
Case Study Mt. St. Helens

• Because of the unexpected lateral movement of the
  eruption, fifty-seven people, including several
  geologists, lost their lives. Most were in areas
  believed to be safe. The lateral blast also
  devastated about 230 squares miles of timber
  north of the volcano, vaporizing the trees within
  five miles, leveling them within nineteen miles,
  and scorching beyond that. The mudflows caused
  major flooding along the Toutle and Cowlitz
  Rivers. The water-carrying capacity of the
  Cowlitz was reduced by 85 percent, and the depth
  of the Columbia River navigational channel was
  decreased from 39 feet to less than 13 feet,
  disrupting river traffic and choking off ocean
  shipping (Carson 1990, 50 Tilling, Topinka, and
  Swanson 1990). The ash fall in eastern
  Washington, Idaho, and Montana destroyed crops,
  damaged equipment, and disrupted commerce.
  According to MacCready (1981), total damages
  amounted to nearly 1 billion. The federal
  government bore 54 percent and the private sector
  about 33 percent of these costs. Most of the
  costs were timber and clean-up costs (84).

29
Natural Disasters - Geological

• Tsunamis.
• A tsunami is a series of waves generated by an
  undersea disturbance such as an earthquake.
  Tsunamis also can be caused by volcanic eruptions
  and landslides.
• Like ripples in a pond, but on a vastly larger
  scale.
• Areas at greatest risk are less than 50 feet
  above sea level and within one mile of the
  shoreline.
• They arrive as a series of successive crests from
  5 to 90 minutes apart with crests and troughs.

30
2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

• The Earthquake, Tsunami, Damage, and Casualties.
• 2004 Tsunami video Phuket, Thailand.

31
Natural Disasters Other Geological

• Landslides.
• Expansive soils.

32
Medical Disasters

• Epidemics occur when an infectious disease
  spreads beyond a local population, lasting longer
  and reaching people in a wider geographical area.
  When that disease reaches worldwide proportions,
  it's considered a pandemic. Several factors
  determine whether an outbreak will explode into
  an epidemic or pandemic the ease with which a
  microbe moves from person to person, and the
  behavior of individuals and societies.

33
Medical Disasters

• On the global level, different populations
  interact through travel, trade, and warall
  opportunities for microbes to reach new areas.
  Rapidly growing cities also allow microbes to
  infect large groups of people. Of course, in many
  situations, individual and communal behavior also
  contribute to the spread of disease.

34
Medical Disasters

• WHAT MAKES A PANDEMIC?
• Pandemics, such as the 14th-century plague known
  as the Black Death, have been occurring for
  centuries. The Black Death devastated populations
  throughout Asia and Europe. And the influenza
  epidemic of 1918-19 caused at least 20 million
  deaths worldwide. AIDS, of course, can be found
  in almost every country.

35
Medical Disasters

• Several factors contribute to the global spread
  of an infectious disease. First, it depends on
  how easily the disease-causing microbe is
  transmitted from person to person. For example,
  the tuberculosis microbe moves through a
  population much more slowly than the influenza
  microbe.
• Some microbes live inside an animals, such as
  mosquitoes or mice, during part of their life
  cycle. The habitat and life cycle of that animal
  can limit or extend the range of the microbe.
• Human behavior and public health conditions are
  also important factors. Reusing needles for
  injecting vaccines or drugs increases risk of
  infection, as does using water from a polluted
  source.

36
Medical Disasters

• WAR
• Warfare has long been linked to disease. In fact,
  infectious diseases sometimes kill more soldiers
  than do battle wounds. Infected soldiers allow
  microbes to enter new ecosystems and infect
  civilians, sometimes with disastrous results.
  Soldiers may also pick up infections abroad and
  carry them back home.

37
Medical Disasters

• During a war, civilian populations are equally at
  risk from the breakdown of infrastructure and
  public health systems, and the scarcity of
  medicine. People are often forced from their
  homes into crowded, unsanitary refugee camps.
• If that isn't enough, warfare also destroys
  ecosystems. Animals carrying disease-causing
  microbes may thrive in such altered environments.
  

38
Medical Disasters

• TRADE, TRAVEL, AND MIGRATION
• Throughout history, travelers moving about the
  world for work, adventure, or resettlement have
  spread disease. Microbes that infest insects and
  rodents stowawayson ancient merchant ships to
  modern jet planeshave also spread disease. And
  other disease-causing microbes can lodge in the
  huge quantity of foods, lumber, and other trade
  goods that are always moving across the globe.

39
Medical Disasters

• CITIES
• Cities bring many people into close contact,
  making it easier for disease-carrying microbes to
  circulate, especially among poor people crowded
  together in unsanitary conditions. And in rapidly
  growing cities, particularly those in developing
  countries, public health programs often lack the
  resources to reach the people who need the most
  help. Lack of access to vaccinations, medicines,
  and public health information all contribute to
  the spread of microbe-caused diseases.

40
Medical Disasters

• WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
• Human behavior, combined with changes in weather
  patterns, contribute to the spread of infectious
  diseases. Both can produce conditions that lead
  to increases in disease-causing microbes and the
  animals that carry then.

41
Medical Disasters - AIDS
42
Medical Disasters 1918 Influenza Pandemic

• The Influenza Pandemic of 1918.

43
Technological Disasters

• Fires.
• 1,602,000 in 2005.
• 50 percent outside or other.
• 32 percent structural fires.
• 18 percent vehicle fires.
• 82 percent of all fire fatalities occur in the
  home.
• Hazardous material incidents.
• Explosives, flammable and combustible substances,
  poisons, and radioactive materials.
• Released because of transportation or plant
  accidents.

44
Technological Disasters

• Nuclear accidents.
• Potential danger from radiation exposure.
• Terrorism.
• Use of force or violence against persons or
  property in violation of the criminal laws of the
  U.S. for purposes of intimidation, coercion, or
  ransom.
• Prior to 9/11, most attacks involved bombing.
• Domestic versus international terrorism.

45
Technological disasters

• Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).
• CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological,
  nuclear).
• Chemical agents.
• Pulmonary, blood, vesicants (blister), nerve,
  incapacitating, riot-control (irritant).\
• Biological agents.
• Bacteria, viruses, toxins.
• Radiation threat.
• Dirty bomb, radiation dispersion device (RDD).

46
Risk Assessment

• Risk definition
• The probability and frequency of a hazard
  occurring.
• The level of exposure of people and property to
  the hazard.
• The effects or costs, both direct and indirect,
  of this exposure.
• Approaches
• Risk matrix (qualitative).
• Composite exposure indicator (CEI) approach.
• 14 indicators (infrastructure).

47
Risk Assessment

• Identify and characterize the hazard.
• Evaluate each hazard for severity and frequency.
• Estimate the risk (human and built environment).
• Determine the potential societal and economic
  (direct) effects and the indirect effects or
  costs.
• Determine the acceptable level of risk.
• Identify risk reduction opportunities.

48
Social Vulnerability

• Religion
• Age
• Gender
• Literacy
• Health
• Politics
• Security

• Human rights
• Government and governance
• Social equality and equity
• Traditional values
• Customs
• Culture

49
Economic vulnerability

• Debt
• Access to credit
• Insurance coverage
• Sources of income
• Funds reserved for disaster
• Social distribution of wealth
• Business continuity planning