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Changing Strategic Environments British Foreign Policy and Defense Strategy Responses to Emerging Th

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Title: Changing Strategic Environments British Foreign Policy and Defense Strategy Responses to Emerging Th


1
Changing Strategic Environments - British Foreign
Policy and Defense Strategy Responses to Emerging
Threats
  • Active Diplomacy and Delivering Security in a
    Changing World

2
Objectives
  • Look at the strategic environment.
  • The nexus between strategic environment and
    policy.
  • Current British foreign policy.
  • Current British defense strategy.
  • Discuss the connection between foreign policy and
    defense strategy.
  • Questions.

3
The Link Between Policy and Strategy
  • Strategy is the overall process of deciding where
    we want to get to and how we are going to get
    there.
  • Strategic direction describes the desired future
    and sets out what needs to be achieved in order
    to bring it about. It provides the guiding
    principles that give context and coherence to
    action.
  • Policy provides the means of moving in that
    direction - and often a number of policies need
    to work together to deliver particular strategic
    outcomes. Policy design work is concerned with
    identifying how to achieve strategic objectives,
    selecting the most suitable policy instruments
    for doing this, and detailing how these
    instruments will work in practice.

4
The Link Between Policy and Strategy
5
The Essence of Security
  • Freedom from
  • Doubt and Fear
  • Harm and Danger
  • Threat and Intimidation
  • Need and Want

6
Strategic Environment
  • Globalization
  • Weak and failing states
  • WMD proliferation
  • Demography
  • Forced and illegal migration
  • Natural Resource scarcity
  • Degraded ecosystems
  • Pollution
  • Climate change
  • Pandemic disease
  • Inter and Intra state and non-state conflict
  • Terrorism
  • International organized criminality (drugs,
    people, money).

7
in summary
  • The world is increasingly complex, uncertain and
    interdependent. A one-world system.
  • No state will be able to pursue its objectives
    successfully on its own..

8
Environmental Security
The Earth is a system that life itself helps to
control. Biotic and abiotic processes strongly
interact to create the planetary environment
9
Population Growth
10
Night lights 2000
11
Night lights 2070
12
Population Growth
Only about 20 percent of the current world's
population has a generally adequate standard of
living. The other 80 percent live in conditions
ranging from mild deprivation to severe
deficiency.
13
Can the planet feed us?
The worlds population increased from 2.5 billion
in 1950 to 6 billion in 2000.
14
Britain now 'eating the planet' By Mark Kinver
BBC News science and nature reporter
Last Updated Friday, 14 April 2006, 2305 GMT
0005 UK
  • In 1961, the Earth could have supported everyone
    having a UK lifestyle. It would take 3.1 planets
    to support the current UK lifestyle

15
Land available
  • Globally, about 36 of the land thought suitable
    for some type of crop production is in use. The
    remaining land is unevenly spread between regions
    and is often valuable to wildlife, already
    occupied by human settlements or has some soil
    constraints. Land degradation is considered a
    serious problem, although measuring its extent is
    difficult.

16
Future Water scarcity
  • An estimated third of the world's population
    currently lives in water-stressed countries. This
    is set to increase to two-thirds within 25 years.
    Africa and Asia are already hard-hit by water
    stress. Increasing populations will create more
    pressure in the coming decades.

17
Clean Drinking Water
18
Soaring use
  • The world's population has tripled in the last
    100 years, but water use has increased six fold.
    A surge in water use in agriculture is
    responsible for a large part of the increase.

19
Water Consumption
The current 2.2 billion people living under
moderate or severe water stress will rise to 4
billion by 2025. Africa, Asia and South America
all show sharp increases of 73, 60 and 93
respectively in the ratio of demand and supply.
20
Per Capita Annual Renewable Freshwater
Availability, 1950, 1995, 2050
At least 400 million people live in regions with
severe water shortages. By the year 2050, it is
projected to be approximately two billion.
21
Deforestation
22
Soil Erosion
Nearly 50 of the land surface has been
transformed by direct human action, with
significant consequences.
23
Energy Meeting Soaring Demand
  • Between 1970 and 1997, the global consumption
    of energy increased by 84. Global energy demand
    is projected to increase by 60 in the next 25-30
    years as developing countries industrialize and
    rich countries continue to guzzle power. Fossil
    fuels will continue to dominate, estimated to
    account for 85 of new demand.

24
Energy Resources
In the last 150-years humankind has exhausted 40
of known oil reserves that took several hundred
million years to generate
25
Carbon Emissions
  • Carbon emissions - thought to be a major cause of
    global climate change - are set to increase by
    60. As developing countries' share of world
    energy demand surges from 38 to a predicted 48,
    poor countries are expected to contribute
    two-thirds of the projected increase in carbon
    emissions.

26
From the Headlines
  • Blair dealt nuclear power blow by parliament
    body
  • Sunday April 16, 1204 AM
  • GOVERNMENT ENERGY REVIEW
  • The government, which has acknowledged it is
    likely to miss its own goal of cutting carbon
    dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2010, is half
    way through a six-month review of the country's
    future energy needs and how to meet them.
  • Bound by pledges to slash emissions of
    greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, it
    must decide the shape of the country's
    electricity supply network for coming decades as
    demand grows and North Sea oil and gas run out.

27
Global Warming
28
Warmer future
  • This map assumes that current emissions trends
    continue, with moderate economic growth and few
    measures to reduce emissions. It predicts the
    greatest rises in northern polar regions, India,
    Africa and parts of South America.

29
Rising Sea level
30
Rising Sea level - Florida
Using computer models, scientists have created a
series of maps that show areas susceptible to
rises in sea level. The above map shows that a
6-meter (20-foot) rise would swamp Miami, Fort
Lauderdale, Tampa, and the entire Florida
coastline, in addition to parts of Orlando and
other inland areas.
31
Rising Sea level - Global
44 of the worlds population live within 150 km
of a coastline
32
Biodiversity The Sixth Great Wave
  • The loss of biological diversity is an aspect of
    global change that is just as important as
    climate change. In southern China, the
    extinction of pollinating bees has meant that
    humans have had to take on the duty.

33
Ageing Population
34
Natural Resources and Conflict
35
British Policy to Meet the Strategic Environment
36
Active Diplomacy for a Changing World
  • What happens abroad has never mattered more for
    our security and prosperitythe task for
    Government is to seek to understand and influence
    the world for the benefit of our people and all
    people.

37
Active Diplomacy for a Changing World
  • At the heart of any foreign policy must lie a
    set of fundamental valuesWe seek a world in
    which freedom, justice and opportunity thrive, in
    which governments are accountable to the people,
    protect their rights and guarantee their security
    and basic needs.

38
Nine Strategic Priorities for the UK
  • Making the world safer from global terrorism and
    weapons of mass destruction.
  • Reducing the harm to the UK from international
    crime, including drug trafficking, people
    smuggling and money laundering.
  • Preventing and resolving conflict through a
    strong international system.
  • Building an effective and globally competitive EU
    in a secure neighbourhood sic.
  • Supporting the UK economy and business through an
    open and expanding global economy, science and
    innovation and secure energy supplies.

39
Nine Strategic Priorities for the UK
  • Promoting sustainable development and poverty
    reduction underpinned by human rights, democracy,
    good governance and protection of the
    environment.
  • Managing migration and combating illegal
    immigration.
  • Delivering high-quality support for British
    nationals abroad, in normal times and in crisis.
  • Ensuring the security and good governance of the
    UKs Overseas Territories.

40
British Defense Strategy in a Changing World

41
What is Strategy?
Strategy is the use made of and the threat
of force for the goals of policy. It is all
about the relationship between means and ends.
As an analogy, it is the bridge between ends and
means that is, the way.
42
British Defense Vision
Defending the United Kingdom and its
interests Strengthening international peace and
security A force for good in the world
43
Changing Mission
"Resources must be directed at those capabilities
that are best able to deliver the range of
military effects required, whilst dispensing with
those elements that are less flexible. It has
historically been the fashion to measure military
capability in terms of the weight of numbers of
units or platforms - of ships, tanks and
aircraft. That might have been appropriate for
the attritional warfare of the past but, in
today's environment, success will be achieved
through anability to act quickly, accurately and
decisively so as to deliver military effect at
the right time."
Secretary of State for Defence, Geoff Hoon 11
December 2003
44
Frameworks for Action
  • The UN will remain the main forum for debate and
    authorization
  • Multinational fora will be used where UN
    agreement is not possible
  • NATO and the EU (ESDP) are the organizations of
    choice for responses to international crisis
  • Ad hoc coalitions will remain appropriate in many
    instances
  • Large-scale operations will be fought alongside
    the US

45
Defense Strategy
  • A focus on achieving eight Strategic Military
    Effects
  • Prevent
  • Stabilize
  • Contain
  • Deter
  • Coerce
  • Disrupt
  • Defeat
  • Destroy

Striking the right balance of capabilities to
meet all eight strategic effects will not be
easyIn particular, it is now clear that we no
longer need to retain a capability against the
re-emergence of a direct conventional strategic
threat to the UK or our allies.
46
Military Tasks
  • Strategic Intelligence
  • Nuclear Deterrence
  • Hydrographic, Geographic and Meteorological
    Services
  • Aid to the Civil Authorities
  • Aid to Civil Power in Northern Ireland
  • Integrity of UK Waters
  • Integrity of UK Airspace
  • Public Duties and VIP Transport
  • Defence and Security of the Overseas Territories

47
Military Tasks
  • Defence and Security of the Sovereign Base Areas
    of Cyprus
  • Defence Diplomacy
  • Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster relief
  • Evacuation of British Citizens Overseas
  • Peacekeeping, Prevention,
  • Deterrence, Containment and Stabilisation
  • Peace Enforcement
  • Power Projection
  • Focused Intervention
  • Deliberate Intervention

48
Navy Capabilities
49
RAF Capabilities
"This restructuring is essential and will ensure
we continue to deliver a highly capable,
cost-efficient and powerful Air Force, capable of
making a winning contribution both on operations
and in humanitarian and relief operationsThe
result will be an even more flexible and
adaptable Air Force, best organised to deal with
the tasks it will face in the future."
50
Army Capabilities
51
Concluding Thoughts
  • War in its classical form has not gone away, but
    is less likely today.
  • Wars over resources and after great environmental
    upheavals are highly probable.
  • Grand Strategists must continue to look forward
    holistically.
  • Militaries must adapt in order to serve policy,
    as driven by the strategic environment.

52
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