New Jerseys Changing Demographics

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New Jerseys Changing Demographics

• Robert A. Massanova, CIDS Manager
• Center for Occupational Employment Information
• Presented to Generation Next 2004 Conference
• August 16-17-2004

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This Presentation Provides
An overview of some basic economic and
demographic changes that have occurred in New
Jersey over the last 10 years and an awareness
that detailed demographic and economic statistics
exist at various levels of geography.
I will also give you many little know facts that
may or may not be of any value now or at any time
in the future.
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Census Areas in New Jersey

• 566 Municipalities
• 1,950 Tracts
• 6,510 Block Groups
• 141,342 Blocks

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Useful Government Sector Data
Union City wants to set up a program to teach
literacy. Wouldnt it be helpful to know that 85
of the residents speak a language other than
English at home and that 60 of those said they
do not speak English very well?
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Useful Private Sector Data
If you wanted to locate a car wash wouldnt it be
great to know that Dover Township in Ocean County
had the largest number of households with 3
vehicles. This represents one out of every five,
or 6,700 households. Is this information you co
uld use to determine where to locate?
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Useful Data for a CBO
If the Middlesex County Office of Social Services
wanted to start a singles club wouldnt they like
to know that more than 50 of the population of
New Brunswick has never been married?
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Around the Nation

• Every state in the nation showed a population
  increase from 1990 to 2000
  
• Population shifted from the Northeast and Midwest
  to the South and West
  
• Resident population in Nevada and Arizona grew by
  66.3 and 40.0, respectively
  

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(No Transcript)
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New Jersey Population Growth Continues to Lag the
Nation
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Population Factoids

• State population in 2002 - 8,590,300
• NJ ranks 9th in total population
• With 1,158 people per square mile, New Jersey
  continues to be the most densely populated state
  
• In 2000, 51.5 of NJ residents were female and
  24.8 were under 18

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More Factoids

• The population grew by over 680,000 or 8.9 since
  1990, above the 5.5 in New York and 3.4 in
  Pennsylvania. However, we were well below the
  13.2 national growth rate
• Population growth was due, in large part, to
  natural increment and an influx of foreign
  immigrants from Asia and Latin America

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Our Smallest Towns

• Teterboro population 18 total state aid for
  education is 2,665
  
• Pine Valley Boro population 20 School Board
  Office is at Pine Valley Golf Club total state
  aid for education is 82
  
• Tavistock population 24 total state aid for
  education is 462
  

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New Jersey Population Growth
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2010 Population Projections

• Bergen will remain the states most populous
  county
  
• Middlesex is projected to replace Essex as the
  states second most populous county
  
• The smallest counties, Cape May and Salem will
  have the slowest rate of growth
  

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Growth in the Central Region

• The central and coastal regions will continue to
  lead the states population growth from 2000 to
  2010
  
• Somerset and Hunterdon counties are the fastest
  growing counties in the central region . Other
  rapidly growing counties include Ocean, Morris,
  Monmouth and Middlesex.

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County Population Changes
The uneven population growth among counties is
projected to continue.
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Racial Makeup of the State
The percentage of NJ residents who are black or
Other exceeds national count.

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Changes by Race 2000 - 2010
While other races will grow the fastest,
Hispanics will become the largest minority group
by 2010

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The Black Population
The black population is projected to increase in
every county except Passaic By 2010, about 50 o
f the black population will live in just four
counties Camden, Essex, Hudson and Union and
Essex will be the first county in which the black
population is a majority Blacks will continue to
represent less than 5 of the population in
Sussex, Hunterdon, Morris, Warren and Ocean
counties
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Other Races
Other races are projected to grow faster than
whites or blacks in every county
They will continue to be concentrated in three
counties Middlesex, Bergen and Hudson
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Asians

• Among Asians, the Indian population was the
  largest and the fastest growing group, followed
  by Chinese
  
• Filipino was the third largest group, increasing
  60.4 during the 1990s.

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Asians are Concentrated in 3 Counties
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Distribution of the Hispanic Population
Nearly one-half of Hudson County residents (45)
will be Hispanic by 2010, while the Hispanics
will only constitute 3.8 of Hunterdon Countys
population.
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Hispanics by Origin

• Puerto Rican grew moderately (14.6), but still
  is the largest Hispanic group.
  
• Mexican had a hefty 258 increase
• The number of Cubans declined.

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Age
Did you know that people age at the precise rate
of 10 years per decade? From 1990 to 2000 the gr
owth rate for the 100 cohort was 178
By 2040 there will be more people over 80 than
in pre-school
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Median Age

• The median age of NJs population increased from
  34.4 years to 36.7 years between 1990 and 2000, a
  reflection of the aging of the baby boomers.

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N.J. Population Older than U.S.
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The New Age Cohorts

• 33-45 silent generation (30m or 11)
• 46-64 baby boomers (78m or 29)
• 65-76 baby bust or GenX (44m or 16)
• 77-94 baby boom echo or GenY (70m or 26)

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Population by Age
The baby boom generation (aged 46-64 in 2010)
and their children (born between 1977 and 1994)
will continue to be the largest age cohorts of
the states population.
2000
2010
0
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Where the Seniors Are
Bergen, Ocean and Middlesex counties are
projected to have more than 100,000 senior
citizens by 2010. These counties will account
for 30.7 of the states over 65 population
Sussex will continue to have the lowest
proportion of seniors (10.4) followed by
Hunterdon (10.7) and Hudson (10.8) counties
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Cape May and Ocean had the Oldest Populations in
the State

• Cape May County had the highest median age, 42.3
  years in 2000, followed by Ocean Countys 41.0
  years
  
• In three municipalities the median age exceeded
  60 - Ocean Countys Manchester Township (67.7)
  and Berkeley Township (66.3) and Cape May
  Countys Cape May Point Borough (64.2)

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65 Population Distribution
Ocean and Cape May counties will continue to
have the highest proportion of elderly (persons
65 years old and over) in the state.
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Educational Attainment
The number of New Jerseyans with less than a
high school education declined from 1990 to 2000,
while those with a bachelors degree or higher
increased substantially Nearly 30 of the popula
tion over 25 had a bachelors degree or higher in
2000 and more than 80 had a high school diploma
.
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Educational Attainment by County
Somerset had the highest percentage of college
graduates (46.5) while Hunterdon had the highest
percentage of high school graduates (91.5)
The percentages of both college and high school
graduates in Cumberland County (11.7 and 68.5)
were the lowest in the state
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Language Spoken at Home
Among people 5 years old and older, 26 spoke
languages other than English at home in 2000
Of the two million foreign language speakers in
New Jersey, 48 spoke Spanish, 33 spoke other
Indo-European languages and 14 spoke Asian and
Pacific Island languages.
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Income

• At 55,146, New Jerseys median household income
  ranked 1st in the nation, well above the U.S.
  figure of 41,994
  
• New Jerseys median family (65,370) and per
  capita income (27,006) each ranked 2nd
  nationally
  

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County Income

• Hunterdon County highest in median household
  income - 79,888
  
• Cumberland Countys 39,150 was the lowest
• Somerset County highest in per capita income -
  37,970

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Regional Per Capita Income
Year 2000
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Living Below Poverty
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The Labor Force Will Grow Faster Than The
Population
Although substantially faster than the 1990s
growth rate, 2000-2010 growth will be slower than
the extraordinarily high rate of growth the state
had experienced during the 1980s
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Labor Force Participation

• In the Sioux Falls, SD MSA, 75.5 of all males 16
  and over are in the labor force (71.0 females)
  
• In Punta Gorda, FL only 43.0 of the males and
  39.8 of the females are in the labor force

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Commutation

• 88 of the labor force travels to work within the
  state
  
• More than 85 of Atlantic County residents
  worked within Atlantic while only 40 of Sussex
  and Hunterdon residents worked in their county
  
• 307,000 workers commuted to New York City and
  71,000 commuted to Philadelphia

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Commutation Factoids

• The average one-way commuting time rose to 30
  minutes from 25.3 minutes in 1990
  
• The use of public transportation rose 10 but was
  still low, at 9.6
  
• Only 10.6 of commuters carpooled, down from
  12.4 in 1990
  
• 73 or 2.8 million drove alone up from 71.6 in
  1990

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Employment Highlights

• About 449,100 new jobs will be created between
  2000 and 2010.
  
• Employment growth is projected to be 1.1 per
  year.
  
• Nationally, a growth rate of 1.6 percent per year
  is projected.
  
• Most growth will occur in service producing
  industries.
  

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Employment Growth by Region
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Employment Growth by County
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Megatrends

• Employment growth will be concentrated in three
  major occupational categories management,
  professional and technical, and services.
  
• Almost half (48.4 percent) of new jobs are
  expected to be in managerial or professional and
  related occupations.
  
• Another 30 percent of new jobs are expected to be
  in service occupations.
  

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More Highlights

• Office and administrative support occupations,
  the largest group in 2000, is expected to add
  only 30,500 jobs.
  
• Productions occupations are the only group
  expected to decline.
  
• Two-thirds of job openings result from
  replacement demand.
  

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