How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund The Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cells hosted by SIKA & CHU Stockholm November 6, 2007 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund The Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cells hosted by SIKA & CHU Stockholm November 6, 2007

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Title: How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund The Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cells hosted by SIKA & CHU Stockholm November 6, 2007


1
How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion?
by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund
The Future of Automotive Energy Fossil Fuels,
Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cellshosted by SIKA
CHUStockholm November 6, 2007
2
We face enormous challenges
  • Global Warming
  • Peak Oil
  • Deeply corrupted governments (USA)
  • Industry Sell-Outs
  • Well meaning environmentalists
  • GreenWashers

3
We must develop enormous programs to meet these
challenges.
  • The 21 Trillion already committed to carbon is
    destructive.
  • We need to overcome collective ignorance, and get
    a grip on the scale of the challenge.

4
Global Warming
5
Atmospheric CO2
6
The fires are burning!
  • Fires in Congo Angola

7
Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse
  • Feb-Mar 2002
  • In about 35 days
  • Larger than Rhode Island
  • Totally baffled scientists
  • 1 down, 4 to go

8
Is this a workable response?
9
We must stop carbon build-up
10
Peak Oil
11
Peak Oil
  • "Today I believe is the end of cheap energy.
    It's essential that we move away from fossil
    fuels as fast as possible. The boat is sinking
    and we have to do everything we can to plug the
    hole.
  • Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chair of Shell

12
The Pretenders
  • IEA, EIA,
  • Shell, BP,
  • Saudi Aramco,
  • Lynch, Adelman,
  • Yergin,
  • Lovins

www.HubbertPeak.com/Pretenders
13
The Pretenders
  • The Commission does not embrace the view that
    world oil production has peaked.
  • The National Commission on Energy Policy

www.HubbertPeak.com/Pretenders
14
The Hubbert Peak
15
UK Production and Net Exports
16
Top 5 Exporters Production Consumption
17
Deeply corrupted governments (USA)
  • In cahoots with corrupt industry, responsible to
    no-one
  • requiring both internal and external pressure to
    make change possible
  • Best pressures are technological advancements and
    market effectiveness

18
The All-New DonCar!
www.OilCrisis.com/Transport
19
Industry Sell-Outs
20
Industry Sell-Outs
21
In case you missed it
22
GreenwashersWell-meaning
environmentalistsAcademics who know but wont
tell
23
GreenWashers
  • Greenwashing," a pejorative term derived from the
    term "whitewashing," was coined by environmental
    activists to describe efforts by corporations to
    portray themselves as environmentally responsible
    in order to mask environmental wrongdoings.
    www.businessethics.ca/greenwashing/

24
Well meaning environmentalists
  • Too lazy or incompetent to do the math

25
Academics who know but wont tell
26
F. Sherwood Rowland
  • The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1995 Rowland
    theorized that manmade organic gases combine with
    solar radiation, releasing atoms of chlorine and
    chlorine monoxide destroying ozone. Rowland's
    research, published in Nature, 1974, initiated a
    scientific investigation. The National Academy
    of Sciences concurred in 1976, and in 1978
    CFC-based aerosols were banned.

27
Scalability
28
Richard Smalley
  • Think TeraWatts
  • 2004

Smalley.Rice.edu ? Our Energy Challenge
29
Scalability
30
Renewable Energy
  • Solar
  • 1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface
  • 600 TW practical

Wind 2-4 TW extractable
Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not
used for food
Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW
economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity
12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable
31
All Strategies Are Essential
30
U.S. LIQUID FUELS DEMAND
MODERATE
GLOBAL TRADE (NET IMPORTS)
MILLION BARRELS PER DAY
15
EXPAND DIVERSIFY
U.S. LIQUID FUELS
2000
2010
2020
2030
YEAR
Source EIA Reference Case / NPC Global Oil and
Gas study survey.
Illustrative View
32
Internal Combustion
  • Take 26.5 Quads of oil
  • Turn 21.2 into smoke
  • Use 5.3 to run things

How incredibly wasteful!?
33
Two out-of-date ways to produce power
  • External Combustion (Boiling water)James Watt
    (1776) includingnuclear power, just a fancy
    boiler, inherently inefficient.
  • Internal Combustion (Burning oil)Rudolf Diesel
    (1893) hybrid electrics are just variations,
    inherently inefficient, heavy, under-utilized.

34
There is no Silver Bullet.
  • Why Silver in the first place?
  • The Lone Ranger chose silver to emphasize that
    silver, like life, was precious and should not be
    wasted.
  • Specific gravity of Pb 11.35
  • Specific gravity of Ag 10.50

Ag
Ag
35
There is no Ag Bullet.
  • Now I think I follow what you mean.
  • Lets find out why.

36
Corn Ethanol
37
Burning biofuels perpetuates inefficiency
  • Internal combustion is the PROBLEM.

38
Waste no time going down Blind Alleys
39
Roscoe Bartlett
  • It might seem possible to fill the gap in
    the short term. However, in the long term, this
    will be impossible. For one thing, it will
    hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources.
    That will make the inevitable transition to
    renewable sources more difficult and more
    painful.

40
The Energy Cost of Energy
75
Net Energy Analysis
100
Cumulative new energy from investment
Annual contribution from alternate energy source
www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling
41
The Energy Cost of Energy
75
60
Net Energy Analysis
100
Cumulative new energy from investment
www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling
42
Consequence of Delayed Investment
Net Energy Production
begin investment before decline
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
43
EROEI for Tar Sands
  • Plus
  • Ravaged land
  • Water contamination
  • Extraction uses natural gas
  • Low EROEI ? Greenhouse gases

EROEI  3?
44
EROEI for Nuclear
  • Plus
  • Terrorism
  • Waste guarded for 10,000 years
  • Depletion ? low grade ores ? Greenhouse gases

How do we value a 1,000 year wasteland?
EROEI  4? 12 electric
45
EROEI for Hydrogen
  • Am I missing something?!

EROEI  ½
46
EROEI for PV
  • EPBT 5 years
  • Life 50 years
  • Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROEI  10?30 electric
47
EROEI for Thin Film PV
  • EPBT 6 months
  • Life 20 years

EROEI  40?120 electric
48
EROEI for Wind
  • EPBT 3 months
  • Life 20 years

EROEI  80?240 electric
49
Solar Energy
50
Thomas Edison
  • I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy.
    What a source of power! I hope we don't have to
    wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle
    that.
  • (1847-1931)

www.ThomasEdison.com
51
Colin Campbell
  • Photovoltaics will be economic when there is
    serious production.
  • 1996

www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
52
Hermann Scheer
  • Solar technologies are potentially the most
    economic solution.
  • 2004

www.HubbertPeak.com/Scheer
53
Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to
Produce the Total US Electrical Demand
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
54
ElectroRoof
55
Personal Rapid Transit
56
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
57
Freeway at Capacity
58
Vehicles Removed
59
PRT Passengers
60
PRT System
61
What is PRT?
  • Personal Rapid Transit also known as
  • Pod cars
  • PAT (Personal automated Transit)
  • Created in 1970s in Morgantown, WV for a college
    campus.
  • Typically 1-4 passengers
  • Driverless
  • Solar powered and electric drive
  • Non-stop travel
  • New service scheduled for 2008
  • London Heathrow ULTra
  • Active prototypes
  • SkyTran in Orange county and Vectus in Sweden

62
PRT advantages
  • Faster average speed than light rail, buses or
    cars
  • Much safer than driving, more private than BART
  • Lower energy usage than battery EV
  • Driverless, enjoyable commute time
  • Less embodied energy (lighter vehicles)
  • Lower risk, no battery breakthrough or recycling
    needed
  • No net fossil fuel emissions
  • Balance grid load via PV panels (net zero)
  • Quieter than cars
  • Fewer vehicles needed
  • Frees up roads for transit oriented development
  • Cheaper than cars

63
10X
64
Gordon Moore
  • Moores Law the number of transistors on a
    chip doubles about every two years.

65
Solar on Rail
SolarEvolution
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
66
10X
67
Solar PRT Capacity
  • PRT Two people every second
  • 7,200 passengers per hour
  • 72,000 passengers per day
  • Rail
  • About 8,000 passengers per hour
  • 60,000 passengers per day
  • Washington, DC 41,000 pass-mile / route-mile
  • Highway 1.2 average occupancy
  • 2400 persons per lane / hour

68
More with Less
69
Bucky Fuller
  • More with Less
  • 1966

www.bfi.org
70
Tonatiuh
www.Ecotopia.com/Tonatiuh
71
SkyTran Solar
Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added
power at stations
72
Solar PRT
  • 10 kw _at_ 100 mph
  • 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval ?
  • 360 kw needed in a mile stretch ?
  • 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun
  • 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun ?
  • 720 kw / mile ?
  • 8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity

73
Solar Sizing Calculations
74
Similar Solar Systems Exist
75
120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
76
Can it work in Sweden?
77
Svensson
Swenson
78
Can it work in Sweden?
79
Payback better than coastal USA!
80
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
  • Yes!
  • Think TeraWatts

www.ecotopia.com/apollo2
81
www.Solarevolution.com
82
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