Demographic and Economic Trends in Oklahoma and Payne County

1

• Demographic and Economic Trends in Oklahoma and
  Payne County

- Department of Agricultural Economics - -
Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural
Resources - - Oklahoma State University -
2
By

• Suzette Barta, Asst. Extension Economist
• OSU, Stillwater
• Susan Trzebiatowski, Student Assistant
• OSU, Stillwater
• Jack Frye, Community Development Specialist
• OSU, Ada
• Nathan Anderson, County Extension Director
• OSU, Stillwater
• Mike Woods, Extension Economist
• OSU, Stillwater

3
Part IRural Development in Oklahoma
What are the issues?
4
Population Loss

• Oklahomas population increased by 9.7 from
  1990-2000, according to the Census Bureau.
• The US population increased by about 13.2.
• As a result, Oklahomas number of Representatives
  to the House decreased from 6 to 5.

OK Loses a Rep.
5
Employment Opportunities
If I could change one thing about my community,
it would be better paying jobs and more of
them. Pushmataha County Community Survey,
AE-02024, March 2002
Old Frisco Depot in Antlers
6
Low Income

• Why does Per Capita Income in Oklahoma lag the
  rest of the nation? Some possibilities
• Low Educational Attainment
• Cost of Living
• Cultural Attitudes
• Different Occupational Mix than U.S.
• Inadequate Transportation Systems

Oklahoma League of Economists, Spring 1999 Policy
Survey of Members
7
Population Trends...

• Across the United States, population growth in
  the bread basket states is slow relative to the
  rest of the country.
• In Oklahoma, the fastest growing counties are
  those in the central and eastern portions of the
  state--often bordering Tulsa and Oklahoma
  Counties.
• Western counties in Oklahoma are losing
  population.
• In general, non-metro counties are losing
  population relative to metro counties.

...In Oklahoma and Nationwide
8
Source U.S. Census Bureau
9
Source U.S. Census Bureau
10
(No Transcript)
11
Percent of Population Living in
Non-Metropolitan Areas for Each State
58.5
16.9
37.6
67.3
66.1
55.7
59.7
26.8
29.5
60.6
1.5
7.9
32.1
65.3
70
17.8
8.2
8.6
15.4
54.6
47.3
27.8
0
13.4
18.8
15.1
23.5
57.6
3.3
16.1
20
21.8
32.2
43.3
51.2
7.3
32.4
32.1
39.2
11.7
43
51
30
27.8
30.7
63.9
30.1
15.1
0-14 Non-metro Population
24.6
15-25 Non-metro Population
7.15
26-50 Non-metro Population
51 or more Non-metro Population
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis for 1999.
12
Population Metro vs. Non-Metro
3,025,487
3,145,576
3,450,654
57
59
61
13
Population Density for Oklahoma Counties
Population per Square Mile (2000)
CIMARRON
HARPER
BEAVER
TEXAS
GRANT
KAY
NOWATA
OTTAWA
ALFALFA
WOODS
WASHINGTON
CRAIG
OSAGE
WOODWARD
NOBLE
DELAWARE
ROGERS
ELLIS
MAJOR
GARFIELD
MAYES
PAWNEE
TULSA
PAYNE
DEWEY
CREEK
WAGONER
BLAINE
CHEROKEE
LOGAN
KINGFISHER
ROGER MILLS
ADAIR
MUSKOGEE
Over 930
OKLAHOMA
LINCOLN
CUSTER
OKMULGEE
SEQUOYAH
CANADIAN
OKFUSKEE
100-388
McINTOSH
BECKHAM
WASHITA
HASKELL
CLEVELAND
POTTA-
CADDO
HUGHES
50-99
WATOMIE
SEMINOLE
GRADY
PITTSBURG
GREER
KIOW
A
LATIMER
10-49
MCCLAIN
LE FLORE
PONTOTOC
HARMON
GARVIN
Less than 10
COMANCHE
JACKSON
COAL
STEPHENS
PUSHMATAHA
TILLMAN
MURRAY
COTTON
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
CARTER
JEFFERSON
CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
MAR-
LOVE
SHALL
BRYAN
Average for the state of Oklahoma 50.2
14
Percent of Total Population Under 18 Years
Source U.S. Census Bureau
15
Percent of Total Population Over 65 Years
Source U.S. Census Bureau
16
Employment Trends...

• Employment growth has been greatest in the
  eastern half of the state.
• Western counties are losing jobs relative to
  eastern counties.
• Unemployment rates are higher in non-metropolitan
  counties.

...In Oklahoma
17
Percentage Employment Growth 1990-2000
CIMARRON
HARPER
BEAVER
TEXAS
GRANT
KAY
NOWATA
OTTAWA
ALFALFA
WOODS
WASHINGTON
CRAIG
OSAGE
WOODWARD
NOBLE
DELAWARE
ROGERS
ELLIS
MAJOR
GARFIELD
MAYES
PAWNEE
TULSA
PAYNE
DEWEY
CREEK
WAGONER
BLAINE
CHEROKEE
LOGAN
KINGFISHER
ROGER MILLS
ADAIR
MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA
LINCOLN
Over 22 Growth
CUSTER
OKMULGEE
SEQUOYAH
CANADIAN
OKFUSKEE
10-22 Growth
McINTOSH
CLEVELAND
BECKHAM
WASHITA
HASKELL
POTTA-
CADDO
HUGHES
WATOMIE
SEMINOLE
0 to 10 Growth
GRADY
PITTSBURG
GREER
KIOW
A
LATIMER
MCCLAIN
Negative Growth
LE FLORE
PONTOTOC
HARMON
GARVIN
COMANCHE
JACKSON
COAL
STEPHENS
PUSHMATAHA
TILLMAN
MURRAY
COTTON
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
CARTER
JEFFERSON
CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
MAR-
LOVE
SHALL
BRYAN
Shades of purple indicate growth that is slower
than the states growth of 22.
18
Oklahoma Unemployment Rates, 1990-2001, State,
Metro Non-Metro Areas
19
Employment Growth in Metro and Non-metro
Oklahoma, 1995-2000
Source Regional Economic Information System, BEA
20
Manufacturing Employment for Non-metropolitan
Areas in Oklahoma, 1980-2000
Source Regional Economic Information System,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
21
Manufacturing Employment as a Percent of Total
Employment for Oklahoma Counties, 1999
CIMARRON
HARPER
BEAVER
TEXAS
GRANT
KAY
NOWATA
OTTAWA
ALFALFA
WOODS
WASHINGTON
CRAIG
OSAGE
WOODWARD
NOBLE
DELAWARE
ROGERS
ELLIS
MAJOR
GARFIELD
MAYES
PAWNEE
TULSA
PAYNE
DEWEY
CREEK
WAGONER
BLAINE
CHEROKEE
LOGAN
KINGFISHER
ROGER MILLS
ADAIR
MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA
LINCOLN
Greater than 20
CUSTER
OKMULGEE
SEQUOYAH
CANADIAN
OKFUSKEE
15.1 to 20
McINTOSH
CLEVELAND
BECKHAM
WASHITA
HASKELL
POTTA-
CADDO
HUGHES
WATOMIE
SEMINOLE
9.63 to 15
GRADY
PITTSBURG
GREER
KIOW
A
LATIMER
MCCLAIN
Less than 9.63
LE FLORE
PONTOTOC
HARMON
GARVIN
COMANCHE
JACKSON
COAL
STEPHENS
PUSHMATAHA
TILLMAN
MURRAY
COTTON
State percent is 9.63.
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
CARTER
JEFFERSON
CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
MAR-
LOVE
SHALL
BRYAN
U.S. percent is 11.76
22
1999 County Trade Pull Factors
CIMARRON
HARPER
BEAVER
TEXAS
GRANT
KAY
NOWATA
OTTAWA
ALFALFA
WOODS
WASHINGTON
CRAIG
OSAGE
WOODWARD
NOBLE
DELAWARE
ROGERS
ELLIS
MAJOR
GARFIELD
MAYES
PAWNEE
TULSA
Greater than 1.0
PAYNE
DEWEY
CREEK
WAGONER
BLAINE
CHEROKEE
LOGAN
KINGFISHER
0.75 - 0.99
ROGER MILLS
ADAIR
MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA
LINCOLN
CUSTER
OKMULGEE
0.50 0.74
SEQUOYAH
CANADIAN
OKFUSKEE
McINTOSH
0.25 0.49
BECKHAM
WASHITA
HASKELL
CLEVELAND
POTTA-
CADDO
HUGHES
WATOMIE
SEMINOLE
GRADY
Less than 0.25
PITTSBURG
GREER
KIOW
A
LATIMER
MCCLAIN
LE FLORE
PONTOTOC
HARMON
GARVIN
COMANCHE
JACKSON
COAL
STEPHENS
PUSHMATAHA
TILLMAN
MURRAY
COTTON
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
CARTER
JEFFERSON
CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
MAR-
LOVE
SHALL
BRYAN
Source Oklahoma Business Bulletin, October 2000
23
Income Trends...

• Oklahoma per capita income falls behind most of
  our surrounding states.
• Non-metro PCI in Oklahoma lags metro PCI.
• Although all counties show some growth in income,
  Central Oklahoma and the far eastern counties
  show the fastest growth in total personal income.

...In Oklahoma
24
Total Personal Income Percentage
Growth,1990-2000.
CIMARRON
HARPER
BEAVER
TEXAS
GRANT
KAY
NOWATA
OTTAWA
ALFALFA
WOODS
WASHINGTON
CRAIG
OSAGE
WOODWARD
NOBLE
DELAWARE
ROGERS
ELLIS
MAJOR
GARFIELD
MAYES
PAWNEE
TULSA
PAYNE
DEWEY
CREEK
WAGONER
BLAINE
CHEROKEE
LOGAN
KINGFISHER
ROGER MILLS
ADAIR
MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA
LINCOLN
Greater than 60
CUSTER
OKMULGEE
SEQUOYAH
CANADIAN
OKFUSKEE
41-60
McINTOSH
CLEVELAND
BECKHAM
WASHITA
HASKELL
POTTA-
CADDO
HUGHES
WATOMIE
SEMINOLE
21-40
GRADY
PITTSBURG
GREER
KIOW
A
LATIMER
MCCLAIN
0-20
LE FLORE
PONTOTOC
HARMON
GARVIN
COMANCHE
JACKSON
COAL
STEPHENS
PUSHMATAHA
TILLMAN
MURRAY
COTTON
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
CARTER
JEFFERSON
CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
MAR-
LOVE
SHALL
BRYAN
Shades of green indicate growth that is slower
than the states rate of growth of 60.
25
Per Capita Income for Oklahoma and Surrounding
States 1990-2000
OK-Metro
OK
OK-Nonmetro
Source Regional Economic Information System, BEA
26
Average Wage per Job, 1999
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
27
Housing Cost Index
28
Top Ten Counties with Greatest Percent of Total
Personal Income from Farm Earnings, 2000
CIMARRON
HARPER
BEAVER
TEXAS
GRANT
KAY
NOWATA
OTTAWA
ALFALFA
WOODS
WASHINGTON
CRAIG
OSAGE
WOODWARD
NOBLE
DELAWARE
ROGERS
ELLIS
MAJOR
GARFIELD
MAYES
PAWNEE
TULSA
PAYNE
DEWEY
CREEK
WAGONER
BLAINE
CHEROKEE
LOGAN
KINGFISHER
ROGER MILLS
ADAIR
MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA
LINCOLN
CUSTER
OKMULGEE
SEQUOYAH
CANADIAN
OKFUSKEE
McINTOSH
CLEVELAND
BECKHAM
WASHITA
HASKELL
POTTA-
CADDO
HUGHES
WATOMIE
SEMINOLE
GRADY
PITTSBURG
GREER
KIOW
A
LATIMER
MCCLAIN
LE FLORE
PONTOTOC
HARMON
GARVIN
COMANCHE
JACKSON
COAL
STEPHENS
PUSHMATAHA
TILLMAN
MURRAY
COTTON
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
CARTER
JEFFERSON
CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
MAR-
LOVE
SHALL
BRYAN
29
Average Annual Employment and Per Capita Income
Growth by County 1990-2000 Relative to U.S.
Average.
CIMARRON
HARPER
BEAVER
TEXAS
GRANT
KAY
NOWATA
OTTAWA
ALFALFA
WOODS
WASHINGTON
CRAIG
OSAGE
WOODWARD
NOBLE
DELAWARE
ROGERS
ELLIS
MAJOR
GARFIELD
MAYES
PAWNEE
TULSA
PAYNE
DEWEY
CREEK
WAGONER
BLAINE
CHEROKEE
LOGAN
KINGFISHER
Employment growth and per capita income growth
greater than US average.
ROGER MILLS
ADAIR
MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA
LINCOLN
CUSTER
OKMULGEE
SEQUOYAH
CANADIAN
OKFUSKEE
McINTOSH
Employment growth greater than US average. Per
capita income growth less than US average.
CLEVELAND
BECKHAM
WASHITA
HASKELL
POTTA-
CADDO
HUGHES
WATOMIE
SEMINOLE
GRADY
PITTSBURG
GREER
KIOW
A
LATIMER
MCCLAIN
LE FLORE
Employment growth less than US average. Per
capita income growth greater than US average.
PONTOTOC
HARMON
GARVIN
COMANCHE
JACKSON
COAL
STEPHENS
PUSHMATAHA
TILLMAN
MURRAY
COTTON
Employment growth and per capita income growth
less than US average.
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
CARTER
JEFFERSON
CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
MAR-
LOVE
SHALL
BRYAN
PCI Average Annual Growth Rate for the US
5.06 Employment Average Annual Growth Rate for
the US 2.01
30
Part II. A Summary of Economic Conditions in
Payne County
Original Payne County Bank Building
31
Population for Payne County
32
Population of Payne County, Oklahoma, 1990-2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau
33
Population, Housing Units, and Average Household
Size for Payne County, Oklahoma 2000
Avg. Household Size for Oklahoma 2.49
Source U.S. Census Bureau
34
Percent of Total Housing Units in Payne County,
2000
Total Housing Units in Payne County 29,326
Source U.S. Census Bureau
35
Payne County Population for Age Groups 65 Over
and Under Age 19, 1990-2000
Source Woods and Poole, 2002
36
Percent of Total Enrollment in Payne County,
Oklahoma, 2000
Total Enrollment for Payne County 28,426
Source U.S. Census Bureau
37
Percent of Education Attained in Payne County for
Persons Age 25 and Over, 2000
Total persons 25 years and over in Payne County
37,237 Source U.S. Census Bureau
38
Percent of Education Attained in Oklahoma for
Persons Age 25 and Over, 2000
Total persons 25 years and over in Oklahoma
2,203,173 Source U.S. Census Bureau
39
Total Employment for Payne County, OK, 1990-2002
Based on ten months data
Source Oklahoma Employment Security Commission
40
Unemployment Rates for Payne County and Oklahoma,
1990-2002
Source Oklahoma Employment Security Commission
41
Location Quotients for Payne County, 1995-2000

42
Per Capita Income for Payne County and Oklahoma
Source Regional Economic Information System,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
43
Transfer Payments by Type for Payne County,
Oklahoma, 1990-2000
Source Regional Economic Information System,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
44
Sales Subject to Sales Tax for Payne County
1992-2002
45
Total Farm Labor and Proprietors Income for
Payne, Oklahoma
46
Selected Farm Characteristics of Payne County,
Oklahoma, 1997
Source 1997 Census of Agriculture
47
Questions???
48
Retail Trade Analysis for Perkins, OK, 1980-2002
Welcome!
Frank Pistol Pete Eaton
Sheri Hall Gordon Memorial Park
Prepared by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension
Service
49
Population for Perkins, OK1980-2000
50
Sales Tax Collectionsfor Perkins, OK, 1980-2002
2-3
51
Estimated Taxable Salesfor Perkins, OK, 1980-2002
52
What isTrade Area Capture?

• Trade Area Capture estimates the number people
  that shop in your town annually.
• TAC is estimated from your towns estimated
  taxable sales figures obtained from the Oklahoma
  Tax Commission.

53
Trade Area Capture for Perkins, OK 1980-2002
54
What is a Pull Factor?

• A Pull Factor is an index calculated so that
  trade areas can be compared across different
  cities and towns.
• A Pull Factor is the towns Trade Area Capture
  Divided by the towns Population.
• A PF gt 1.0 implies that a town is drawing in
  shoppers over and above its own population.
• A PF lt 1.0 implies that a town is not capturing
  the retail dollars of its own residents.

55
Pull Factors forPerkins, OK, 1980-2002
56
Pull Factors for Cities and Townsin Payne
County, 1980-2002
57
Pull Factors By Average City Size
58
Pull Factors for Perkins for Cities with
Population 1,000-5,000 1980-2002
59
Sales Gap Analysis

• Sales gap coefficients are interpreted in exactly
  the same way as pull factors.
• The only difference is that 8 distinct retail
  categories are analyzed--based on SIC codes.

60
SIC Codes for Gap Analysis
61
Gap Analysis for Perkins1998-2002
62
Questions?
63
Perkins, OKWhats GOOD About YOUR Community?
Cimarron River
Habitat for Humanity
64
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.7
65
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.0
66
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.2
67
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.7
68
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.9
69
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.3
70
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.7
71
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.8
72
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.5
73
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.0
74
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.3
75
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.2
76
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.4
77
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.7
78
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.8
79
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.2
80
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.6
81
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.6
82
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.4
83
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.9
84
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.2
85
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.8
86
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.9
87
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.5
88
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.8
89
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.5
90
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.3
91
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.3
92
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.4
93
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.3
94
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 1.1
95
What's Good About Your Community?
Average Rating 2.4
96
TOP RATED!

• Education 2.9
• Community Organizations 2.9
• Churches 2.9
• School Buildings 2.8
• Local Agriculture 2.7
• Fire Control 2.7

• Safety 2.6
• Family Living Conditions 2.6
• General Appearance of Roads, Parks, and Streets
  2.5
• Law Enforcement 2.5

97
Lowest Rated

• Nursing Homes 1.0
• Hotels and Motels 1.1
• Ambulance Service EMS 1.5
• Job Training and Retraining 1.7
• Public Health Facilities 1.7

• Availability of Doctors and Dentists 1.8
• Flood Control 1.8
• Recreational Opportunities for all Ages 1.8

98
What Businesses would you like to see?
99
What Businesses DO you Not Want To see?
100
What would I change...
101
What I Like Best...
102
Asset Mapping Top Assets

• Friendly People
• Variety of Leaders
• Small Town Atmosphere
• School System
• New ideas/Projects
• Vision

103
Asset Mapping Underutilized Assets

• Sense of History Culture
• Availability of development opportunities
  (Resources)
• Iowa Tribe of Oklahoma

104
Other Assets Listed

• Community Pride
• Volunteerism
• Newspaper/Communication
• Sports Organizations/Support
• Corporations Organizations
• Strong Financial Support
• Churches
• Contacts/Network

• Fire Department
• Perseverance
• Affordable Housing
• Proximity to Stillwater OSU
• Assistance from Extension and Meridian
• Senior Citizens
• Linkage with City of Stillwater Government
• Open minded to Allliances