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MED-CSP Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region WP1: Sustainability Goals WP2: Renewable Energy Technologies WP3: Renewable Energy Resources – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Folie 1


1
MED-CSP Concentrating Solar Power for the
Mediterranean Region WP1 Sustainability Goals
WP2 Renewable Energy Technologies WP3
Renewable Energy Resources WP4 Demand Side
Analysis WP5 Scenario Market Strategies
(Energy) WP6 Socio-Economical Impacts WP7
Environmental Impacts
2
Energy Economic Frame Parameters of the MED-CSP
Scenario The scenario departs from a crude oil
price of 25 /bbl in the year 2000, and
equivalent prices for fuel oil (184 /ton) and
natural gas (6 /GJ). These prices equal 15 /MWh
of thermal energy. The starting coal price in
2000 is 49 /ton, equal to 6 /MWh thermal
energy. Escalation rates for all fuels were
assumed to be 1 /year. Considering todays cost
level of fossil fuels, this is a very
conservative estimate. Higher fuel prices may be
more realistic for the future. World fuel
market prices are valid for all countries, even
for those exporting fuels. This is due to the
fact that in view of the strong growth of demand
in the MENA countries, export of fuels will
increasingly compete with domestic consumption.
Fuel can be burned or sold, not both at the same
time. National economies must subsequently
calculate with world market prices if they burn
fuel reducing their potential national income. It
is an illusion to believe that domestic fuel is
for free. Fuel that is burned for free is
equivalent to the destruction of a national
treasure. Even fuel potentials that would not
justify the construction of an international
market infrastructure (pipelines) due to their
limited amount cannot be considered as for free,
as they are obviously not sustainable and must be
replaced soon, as domestic consumption growths.
It is assumed that the European countries will
introduce sequestration of greenhouse gases from
flue gas of power generation after 2020, and will
reach a sequestration share of 50 of their
conventional power generation by 2050. This will
increase the cost of conventional power
generation of newly installed plants or of plants
with upgraded sequestration by about 2 c/kWh
after 2020. MENA countries will probably not
apply CO2 sequestration in the analysed time
span. The electricity cost scenario was
calculated with an average real discount rate of
5 /year. All numbers are given in real values of
-2000. The electricity cost of renewable
energies is calculated as function of the
performance indicators and taking into
consideration realistic learning effects by
economies of scale and technical progress. Those
learning curves refer to the specific investment
per installed kWh and are shown in the respective
diagram as a function of time. While most
technologies show a degressive learning curve in
terms of /kW installed capacity, concentrating
solar power shows a progressive curve. This is
due to the fact that initial hybrid CSP plants
will have a low solar share of 25 which is
subsequently increased to 95 after 2020. For
this purpose, larger collector fields and thermal
energy storage facilities are needed within each
plant, increasing its specific investment cost
from 3000 /kW in 2004 to about 4500 /kW in
2020. Nevertheless, the electricity cost of CSP
will be reduced steadily, because the plants will
require less fuel for power generation and the
collectors will become cheaper. CSP, geothermal
power and biomass plants will subsequently take
over backup capacity functions of conventional
power plants. As they enter the intermediate and
peak load power market, their annual full load
hours will be reduced and their specific
electricity cost will increase after 2040. This
is not a problem, as the value of peak load
electricity is also higher. Hydropower is already
today used for peaking purposes, and its cost is
relatively high due to that reason.
3
  • Finding Renewable Energy Scenarios with the
    Crash-Barrier Principle
  • Subsequently, different factors limit technology
    expansion.
  • Phase 1 Technology cost is high and expansion
    requires preferential investment
  • Phase 2 Prices have become competitive but
    production capacities are limited
  • Phase 3 Production catches up and the market is
    defined by demand
  • Phase 4 As demand grows the availability of
    resources may become limiting

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Synthesis of limits of power exchanges (MW) for
year 2010 through the AC grid and example of
improvements that can be achieved through defence
plans /EURELECTRIC 2003/
6
Phases of CSP Market Introduction
7
Growth Rates of PV and Wind Power in Germany
Source Quaschning 2004
8
Life curve of remaining power plants in Morocco
installed before 2003
9
Development of Fuel Prices (-2004), Solar Share
of CSP Plants and CO2-Sequestration Share of
Fossil Power Generation in Europe within the
MED-CSP Scenario
10
Specific Investment of Power Technologies
11
Technical Frame
Parameters of the MED-CSP Scenario Electrical
Load The maximum load is calculated in
proportion to the growing electricity demand
according to the scenario CG/HE. There are no
inter-annual changes of the temporal structure of
the load curve. The following figure shows the
example of the peak load day for Egypt for the
years 2001, 2020, 2030 and 2050. The power park
is designed such that there is always a remaining
reserve capacity of 25 on peak power. Wind
Power Wind is a strongly fluctuating energy
source that cannot be controlled by demand.
However, distributed wind parks partially
compensate each others fluctuations and show a
relatively smooth transition. Depending on site,
up to 15 of the installed capacity can be
considered as secured. Hourly wind data was taken
from the World Wind Atlas. Photovoltaic PV
power is strongly fluctuating and only available
during daytime. There is no contribution to
secured power, but a good correlation with the
usual daytime power demand peak of most
countries. PV is specially suited for distributed
power supply. Hourly global irradiance on a fixed
tilted surface was taken from the Meteonorm
database. Geothermal Hot Dry Rock Geothermal
power can be delivered on demand as base load,
intermediate or peaking power using the earth as
natural storage system. Unit sizes are limited to
about 50 to 100 MW maximum. It can be used to
compensate fluctuation from wind and pv-power.
Biomass Power Generation Biomass can deliver
power on demand. However, biomass is scarce in
MENA and subject to seasonal fluctuations.
Biomass can be supplied in times when wind and pv
power is low in order to compensate those
sources, and shut down when wind and pv power is
available to save the scarce biomass resources.
Hydropower The situation is similar for
hydropower, which can be delivered on demand but
is scarce in MENA and subject to seasonal
fluctuations. If used only in times when pv and
wind power are low, it acts like a natural
complement and storage system for those
resources. Hydropower is saved when wind and pv
energy is available and preferably used during
peaking periods, while its annual capacity factor
remains more or less constant. Solar Thermal
Electricity Concentrating solar thermal power
stations can deliver power on demand, making use
of their thermal storage capability and hybrid
operation with fuels. They are the natural link
between the fossil system and the other
renewables. Being the biggest resource, they will
provide the core of electricity in MENA. Oil
and Gas fired Power Plants Oil and gas fired
power plants are today the most applied
technology in MENA. They will subsequently take
over the part of closing the remaining gap
between the load and the renewable power during
peaking times. Their energy consumption will be
reduced faster than their installed capacity.
Coal Steam Plants Only a few countries in MENA
use coal fired steam cycles. They constitute a
feasible, however problematic supplement to power
generation in MENA, as they are exclusively based
on imports. Therefore, domestic sources like
renewables, oil and gas will be the preferred
choice in most MENA countries. Nuclear Fission
and Fusion Nuclear plants are a fading technology
with unsolved problem of nuclear waste disposal
and high risk. In spite of massive subsidies, it
has actually a market share of less than 1 .
Electricity from fusion will not be available
before 2050.
12
Power Generation on the Peak Load Day in Egypt
13
MED-CSP Country Scenarios Electricity
Generation The European countries typically show
rather large potentials of hydropower, wind power
and biomass and less solar generation. This is
due to the fact that solar collector production
capacities are still small, and once they become
visible after 2020, the electricity demand is
already stagnating or retrogressive in those
countries. Arab OPEC countries will probably
maintain a rather high share of oil/gas for power
generation and slowly change to solar schemes,
while wind and hydropower are rather limited. All
other MENA countries will increasingly make use
of concentrating solar power as an ideal
technology for a transition from an oil/gas fired
power generation to a renewable energy driven
scheme. Geothermal power is very promising in
Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Although climate change
and environmental considerations are very good
reasons for a change to renewable electricity
sources, the main issue is the security of supply
and the cost of energy in the future. Most
economies in MENA will not be able to develop
properly in view of the increasing cost of fossil
fuels. They are also those countries that will be
most affected from climate change and
desertification. Therefore, both economical and
ecological considerations lead to a solar energy
economy in the EUMENA region. Installed
Capacity The installed capacity of the total
power park is calculated in a way that the
national peak load is always covered with an
additional minimum reserve of 25 of secured
installed power capacity. Due to the fact that
wind and PV electricity shares only participate
with a minor share in the provision of secured
capacity, the total installed capacity tends to
increase subsequently in relation to the national
peak load. Typical capacity/peak load relations
are today about 1.5 to 1.8, increasing to 1.7 to
2.5, respectively. While PV and Wind Power is
resource driven, the other technologies can be
applied in a demand driven manner. Hybrid CSP
plants can deliver peak load, intermediate load
and base load capacity on demand. Electricity
Cost of New Plants The cost of electricity from
fossil plants is calculated with the average
annual full load hours of each countrys power
park and according to the relation of oil/gas and
coal plants installed. The cost of new natural
gas fired combined cycle power plants is
displayed as well as the cost of steam-coal
plants under the economic frame conditions shown
before. The cost of fuel oil steam cycles is
usually higher than those values. In Europe, the
electricity cost of most renewable energies will
cross the cost of fuel driven plants between 2010
and 2020. Most renewable power plants will be
cheaper than new, fuel driven plants after that,
specially if CO2-sequestration is introduced. But
even in the MENA countries, where CO2
sequestration is not expected to become
applicable, most renewable power plants will
produce cheaper electricity than new fuel fired
plants after 2020. CO2-Emissions Specific CO2
emissions per kWh are calculated on the basis of
average specific values that have been obtained
from life cycle analysis of each power
technology. For fuel power generation, the share
of CO2 sequestration is considered. Most
countries achieve the per capita emissions of
clearly less than 1 t/cap/year in the power
sector recommended by the German Scientific
Council for Global Environmental Change (WBGU).
Due to a general believe, this does not have to
be financed by subsidies, but constitutes the
most economic solution for a secure energy
supply. However, it requires initial investments
to start the technology learning curves of the
renewable energy technologies and to achieve cost
break-even with fossil fuels as soon as possible
in order to relieve the national economies from
subsidising the fossil fuel sector.
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Electricity Generation Installed Power Capacity
of All Countries analysed within MED-CSP
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Electricity generated by Renewable Energies
(TWh/year)
Biomass
Geothermal
43
Electricity generated by Renewable Energies
(TWh/year)
Hydropower
Wind Power
44
Electricity generated by Renewable Energies
(TWh/year)
Photovoltaics
CSP Plants