Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning PowerPoint presentation | free to view - id: 3c0ea5-YmQ1Y



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning

Description:

Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning What is Air Dominance? Iraq and Afghanistan The Plan After 1991 Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war set Air ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:82
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 24
Provided by: afaOrgmem
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning


1
Losing Air Dominance?
Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning
2
What is Air Dominance?
Operation Desert Storm, 1991
  • Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force
    goals
  • Freedom to attackany target, with mission
    success
  • Freedom from attackdefeat of enemy fighters and
    SAMs
  • Freedom to maneuverfor forces on land or sea

3
Iraq and Afghanistan
Sorties Flown 2004 to 2008
Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008
4
The Plan After 1991
  • Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war set Air Force
    position on stealth
  • Fighter force structure cut by 44 as Cold War
    ended
  • Replacement strategy
  • 1991 Advanced Tactical Fighter program
    down-select to maintain air dominance
    technologies
  • 1994 Joint Strike Fighter research initiated as
    affordable stealth fighter/attack to replace F-16
    and A-10 force structure
  • Never again buy a non-stealthy fighter Chief
    of Staff Gen. McPeak

5
Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1963-2008
Todays CAF purchased
Estimates 59 F-117s
6
The Force Mix Active Component 1995
Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4,
F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
  • Force healthy in mid-1990s
  • Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force
  • 1995 Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1
    of active force

Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.
TAI Active Only
7
2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom Aircraft Felt Their
Age
Mission Capable Rates Operation Desert Storm vs.
Operation Iraqi Freedom
Desert Storm Data 28 Feb 91
Iraqi Freedom Data Average
  • Decline from Operation Desert Storm averaged over
    10
  • F-15C average age 18 years

8
F-22s
  • F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft
  • 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal
    missiles
  • Designed to assure air dominance through fleet
    life 2040
  • Depends on number of aircraft procured

9
From Three Fighters to One
  • F-117 Stealth attack of heavily defended targets

200
  • F-15E Advanced air-to-ground platform

55
410
  • F-15 Air superiority fighter with 100 kills, no
    air combat losses

665 Total Active F-15, F-15E and F-117
F-22 183 Currently Funded 381 F-22s Air Force
Requirement
10
How to See Stealth
  • In contrast, the F-22 has four internal weapons
    bays and targeting integrated with its avionics

NOT STEALTH
STEALTH
  • This F-15E from Lakenheath on an OIF mission
    carried fuel, targeting pods, air-to-ground
    weapons and air-to-air missiles externally
  • Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve
    the F-22s stealth
  • The two side-bay doors are open here

11
F-22 and F-35 Partnership
  • F-22 technology development and risk reduction
    flow to F-35

Radar
F119/F120 Engine Development
Integrated, open architecture avionics
Unique F-22 Capabilities
Computer-based maintenance
Advanced LO Materials and Manufacturing
12
True to Plan Major Fighter Aircraft Buys
1988-2015
1991 Gulf War
F-22 and F-35 would have led to smaller force,
more precision and survivability, no legacy
aircraft
Estimate
13
Comptrollers Plan December 2004 PBD 753 (FY06
PB)
  • PBD 753 cut 10B from F-22 program (100 aircraft)
  • Pushed long-term funding far below stated
    requirement

10.5B Cut
46.1B Cut
2,167 reqt.
1772 QDR
1285 funded
F-15E
More OS costs for old Fighters
F-15C
197
F-22
190
14
Crisis Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015
1991 Gulf War
Budget cuts shrink force below QDR requirement
Estimate
15
The Legacy Force Mix Active Component
Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4,
F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
  • Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force
  • From 1990 to 2008, active fighter and attack
    force shed 1000 aircraft
  • 1995 Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1
    of active force
  • 2008 Legacy fighters over 18 years 55 of active
    force

Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.
784 aircraft over 18 yrs.
TAI Active Only
16
F-22 Force Sizing
Elmendorf AFB
2
Langley AFB
NATO No F-22s
2
2
1
CENTCOM AOR
PACOM AOR
Holloman AFB
Hickam AFB
  • Considerations
  • New administration budget guidance
  • F-22 availability for NATO
  • PACOM force structure
  • Option for Japan
  • Current
  • Program of Record is 183 total aircraft buy
  • Will yield 126 Combat-Coded Aircraft
  • 7 Squadrons 18 PAA

17
Threat Environment
2884 Iraqi Surface to Air Missile Launches in 2003
  • Iraq 2003 2884 launches in 25 days
  • Peak 190 launches on Day 15
  • Persistent mobile SAMs moved daily
  • SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands
  • 66 were unlocated despite 12 years of operations
    and one year of accelerated SAM destruction
  • Kosovo 1999 894 SAM launches in 78 days
  • Peak 43 launches on Day 39

Threats can persist for weeks even against older
defenses US forces have not yet faced SA-20
SA-20
18
Red Air
  • Lethal SAMS and Red air
  • 1200 F-10 advanced 4th Gen fighters in
    production
  • DIA estimates similar to Typhoon, Rafale
  • Su-30 and Su-33 purchases
  • Work on AWACS-like system based on IL-76
  • Acquisition of 8 Russian air refueling aircraft
  • Complete radar coverage of all borders

You will be outnumbered ADM Willard,
Commander, US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008
PRC F-10
Source DoD Report, 2006
19
Getting Back on Track?
  • Ratio gets worse, before it gets better
  • Fighter force reaches 80 legacy circa 2014
  • Recovers to 62 legacy circa 2020
  • Assumes 243 total F-22s
  • Assumes ramp rate to 80 USAF F-35s per year
  • Active total inventory declines to 1320
  • Guard and Reserve forces steadily age out
  • Fighter and attack force highly capable but
    limited in number of joint tasks it can serve

Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4,
F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
Estimate
TAI Active Only
20
F-22 Termination Options
Maintain service life to 2038
Lot 10 then defer to QDR Analysis Yields 203
F-22s
Current Program
CJCS 60
Fleet Size
183
381
260
240
280
339
220
200
300
OSD
USAF
Lot 10
Lot 11
Lot 12
  • Sustain force with 3 more lots
  • 20-24 acft per lot
  • Synchronize with F-35 way forward
  • Hedge F-35 concurrency risk
  • 10 squadrons total
  • Take from back-up inventory, training and
    attrition reserve to create 10 squadrons

21
Way Ahead
  • Biggest risk restricting program build-up from
    2010 to 2015
  • No service depends more on F-35 than the USAF
  • Only program of maturity and scale to maintain
    USAF fighter and attack missions
  • Essential for Navy, Marine Corps and allies

22
(No Transcript)
23
F-22 Workforce Impact
I can throw a blanket over the production line
to keep it warm, but what about the people? --
F-22 Program Manager
If Production Continues
Jobs Lost at F-22 Production Termination
17,000
Direct F-22 Jobs by State
  • F-22 has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008
  • At full rate, F-35 will transfer 5300 jobs some
    to other programs
  • 4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after 2011
  • Permanent loss of 17,000 highly skilled jobs
About PowerShow.com