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Global Warming, the End of Life as We Know It?

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Title: Global Warming, the End of Life as We Know It?


1
Global Warming, the End of Life as We Know It?
  • The Naysayers View

2
Definition of Global Warming
  • The increase in the average temperature of the
    Earths near-surface air and oceans in recent
    decades and its projected continuation.

3
Greenhouse Effect
4
Greenhouse Effect
5
Some Causes of Global Warming
  • Anthropogenous Causes
  • (Industrialization)
  • CO2 emissions
  • Burning of fossil fuels
  • Deforestation
  • Methane
  • Livestock
  • Nitrous oxide
  • Agricultural activities
  • Fertilizers
  • Natural Causes
  • Solar variation
  • Volcanoes
  • Orbital forcing
  • Atmospheric greenhouse gasses (major)
  • Water vapor
  • Carbon dioxide
  • Methane
  • Nitrous oxide
  • ozone

6
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7
The Connection
  • High levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have been
    linked to elevated global temperatures and
    climate changes

8
However .
  • Keep in mind the earth has gone through many
    natural temperature cycles before.
  • http//www.sepp.org/
  • S. Fred Singer.doc

9
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10
Some Possible Outcomes of Continued Global Warming
  • Further Glacial Retreat (melting/disappearance)
  • Worldwide sea levels could rise (.36 2.5 ft,
    till 2100)
  • Positive feedbacks causing further warming
  • Weather events
  • Changes in precipitation
  • Less rain some areas, flooding in others
  • More frequent and extreme weather events
  • Changes in agricultural yields
  • Increased incidences and areas of diseases

11
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
  • Established in 1988 by the parent organizations,
    World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
    United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
  • The Role of IPCC
  • Assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and
    transparent basis the scientific, technical and
    socio-economic information relevant to
    understanding the scientific basis of risk of
    human-induced climate change, its potential
    impacts and options for adaptation and
    mitigation
  • This agency does NOT carry out research or
    monitor climate data
  • The basic assessments made are on peer reviewed
    and published scientific/ technical literature.
  • Divided into three Working Groups and a Task
    Force
  • Getting ready to release their Fourth Assessment
    Report (AR4)
  • To be released last quarter of 2007
  • www.ipcc.ch/

12
Conclusions of IPCC
  • Most of the observed increases in globally
    averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
    due to humans
  • Natural phenomena such as solar variation
    combined with volcanoes probably had a small
    warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950.
  • These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at
    least 30 scientific societies and academies of
    science.
  • A few individual scientists disagree with some of
    the main conclusions of the IPCC
  • S. Fred Singer www.sepp.org/

13
Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
  • Founded in 1990 by atmospheric physicist S. Fred
    Singer the godfather of global warming denial
  • Founded on belief that sound, credible science
    must form the basis for health and environmental
    decisions that affect millions of people and cost
    tens of billions of dollars every year.
  • Non-profit, educational group
  • Mission to clarify the diverse problems facing
    the planet and where necessary, arrive at
    effective cost-conscious solutions
  • www.sepp.org

14
What are we currently basing our forecasts on?
  • We are basically using past data that may not be
    completely accurate
  • Not completely global measurements
  • Ice core analysis
  • Fossil analysis
  • Urban Heat Islands
  • Discrepancy between satellite and weather balloon
    data

15
Climate Models
  • We are also using Climate Models which are
    predictive scenarios of what might happen with
    our future climate.
  • Over 20 different scientific models
  • Based on physical principles
  • Fluid dynamics
  • Radiative transfer
  • AR4WG1_Ch01-Figs_2007-06-05.ppt
  • AR4WG1_Ch10-Figs_2007-06-05.ppt

16
What is the concern with predictive models?
  • All the factors that effect global warming are so
    numerous it is nearly impossible to adjust models
    to include all of them
  • How clouds are treated in the models
  • Water vapor
  • Variable Sun
  • Magnetic activities
  • Land clearing albedo changes

17
Other theories of Global Warming Causation?
  • Solar Variation Astronomical theory
  • Magnetic activity that deflects cosmic rays,
    which has and effect on cloud formation
  • Ice ages cycles are linked to this theory
  • A few people over there in Durham (Duke) have
    written papers suggesting the Suns contribution
    to current global warming may have been
    underestimated by 45-50 (1900-2000)

18
Other theories of Global Warming Causation?
  • Continental drift Tectonic Events
  • Shifts in plates under the earths surface
  • Linked to long term climate changes
  • Atmosphere Ocean Interactions
  • Changes in ocean circulation
  • Linked to shorter climate variations
  • Butterfly effect ?
  • Unknown variable

19
In Summary, Does Global Warming mean the End of
Life as We Know It?
  • The majority of the climate models predict that
    conditions wouldnt become severe until the year
    2100, so it wouldnt be the end of life as WE
    know it if the models are correct
  • Predictive climatology isnt an exact science so
    life as we know it may go unchanged, or
    normalize.
  • People are more likely to want to err on the side
    of caution and perhaps even take more of an
    alarmist point of view
  • No one wants history to repeat its self (such as
    in the case of lead)
  • No one wants to overlook something that is
    preventable (somewhat) and could lead to the
    total destruction of the world

20
Some Extra Articles
  • Cooling It On Global Warming
  • http//cagle.msnbc.com/news/GlobalWarmingSteigerwa
    ld/main.asp
  • High Price for Load of Hot Air
  • http//www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,2
    1920043-27197,00.html
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