Technology Roadmapping

1
Technology Roadmapping
Part A
Principles, process and examples
Dr Rob Phaal
University of Cambridge Centre for Technology
Management
Wednesday 21 March 2007, 1400-1530
2
Aims
To provide

• An introduction to the theory and practice
• of technology roadmapping

1400 Part A Technology roadmapping -
principles, process examples -
Overview of roadmapping history, concepts and
examples - T-Plan fast-start
approach 1530 Break 1600 Part B Case
example - Industrial coding company -
Discussion points - Concluding
remarks 1700 Part C group work - planning a
roadmapping activity 1730 Close
3
Overview of roadmapping History, concepts and
examples
4
Motorola Roadmap Matrix - summary of product
plans and technology forecast
Source Willyard McClees, 1987
5
Roadmapping - Planning for the Future
6
Roadmapping - Links future to present
Where do we want to go?
Where are we now?
How can we get there?
7
Evolution of technology roadmapping
1970 1980
1990 2000
2010
Strategic planning
Co-evolution
8
Roadmapping GoogleTM index
Feb 04
May 04
Aug 04
Nov 04
Feb 05
May 05
Aug 05
technology roadmapping technology
roadmap roadmapping innovation
roadmapping innovation roadmap business
roadmapping business roadmap strategic
roadmapping strategic roadmap technology
route mapping technology route map
3,500 52,400 12,200 40 733 122 6,740 225 4,680 24
72
3,550 56,800 14,000 43 609 149 4,810 176 5,150 25
132
9,680 175,000 41,600 134 1,300 240 11,000 677 15,3
00 25 107
8,420 164,000 46,800 71 726 188 8,870 507 19,000 1
7 72
3,850 63,300 15,400 43 843 171 4,550 319 5,170 47
97
11,200 153,000 38,100 71 1,190 245 11,700 559 13,0
00 24 119
10,800 168,000 67,800 10 3,710 256 9,210 3,910 22,
000 26 94
9
Roadmapping GoogleTM index 2
Feb 04
May 04
Aug 04
Nov 04
Feb 05
May 05
Aug 05
science roadmap program roadmap market
roadmap industry roadmap customer
roadmap product roadmap service
roadmap production roadmap enterprise
roadmap application roadmap process
roadmap design roadmap engineering
roadmap policy roadmap infrastructure
roadmap risk roadmap investment
roadmap roadmap for peace
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
674 714 488 2,640 111 26,800 803 154 356 5,570 712
881 945 1,690 587 73 403 9,850
1,230 821 1,720 6,420 174 61,200 1,090 207 463 5,1
80 880 1,210 631 5,840 747 70 557 18,900
727 514 1,690 8,680 149 97,300 983 218 467 5,210 5
51 1,130 1,050 643 781 80 550 15,800
820 797 1,850 7,250 182 72,300 1,050 222 494 5,220
1,440 1,210 1,310 4,940 845 69 622 17,900
588 792 1,790 8.090 193 120,000 1,040 363 672 5,40
0 749 1,280 651 880 850 81 649 16,500
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Time is a key dimension
11
Lucent Technologies technology roadmapping
approach
Source Richard Albright, The Albright Strategy
Group, www.albrightstrategy.com
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Lucent Technologies technology roadmap
Albright Kappel (2003)
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Example Display technology
www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm
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www.ams.mod.uk
UK Ministry of Defence example technology roadmap
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Fictional
UK Ministry of Defence example technology roadmap
Risk 1
Key decision point
Key decision point
Risk 3
Risk 10
Risk 8
Risk 9
Risk 2
Key decision point
Risk 7
Risk 5
Key decision point
Risk 4
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Technology roadmapping process Benefits

• Facilitate the integration of new technology
  into the business
• Support for company strategy and planning
  processes
• Identify new business opportunities for
  exploiting technology
• Provide top level information on the
  technological direction of the
• business
• Support communication and co-operation within
  the business
• Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge
• Support sourcing decisions, resource
  allocation, risk management
• and exploitation decisions
• High-level integrated planning and control
• - a common reference / framework

17
Roadmapping vs. strategic planning process
Process funnel (e.g. strategy, new product
development)
Requirements fluid Concepts fuzzy Many
unknowns Many options Many assumptions Few
constraints Scenarios
Requirements clear, stable Concepts clear,
stable Fewer unknowns, risks understood Fewer
options, greater constraints
Time, effort, iteration
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Divergent process
Convergent process
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Roadmapping other management tools / approaches
STEEPI (Social, Technological, Economic,
Environmental, Political, Infrastructural Trends
Drivers)
Foresight Technology Intelligence
Porters Five Forces
Scenario
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threa
ts)
t
Market Business Product Service System Technolog
y Resources
Innovation System Structure (taxonomy)
Scaleable (hierarchy)
Valuation / Balanced scorecard
Portfolio
Linking grids
19
T-Plan fast-start approach
20
Roadmapping challenges
Source CTM survey, 1999
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T-Plan aims

• To support the start-up of company-specific TRM
  processes
• To establish key linkages between technology
  resources
• and business drivers
• To identify important gaps in market, product
  and
• technology intelligence
• To develop a first-cut technology roadmap
• To support technology strategy and planning
  initiatives
• in the firm
• To support communication between technical and
• commercial functions

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T-Plan Applications

• Sector / product
• Industrial coding (x3)
• Postal services (x10)
• Security / access systems
• Labelling software
• Surface coatings
• Medical packaging (x2)
• Automotive sub-systems
• Power transmission
• Railway infrastructure (x3)
• National infrastructure
• Building controls
• Road transport (x2)
• Technical consulting (x12)
• Automotive / Aerospace
• Academic (x3)
• Biochemicals
• Satellite navigation

Aims - Product / technology planning -
Integration of RD into business business
planning - Product / technology planning -
Product / technology planning - New product
development process - Business reconfiguration -
Service development planning - Business
opportunities of new technology - Capital
investment planning and technology insertion -
Research programme planning - New product /
service opportunity business reconfiguration -
Defining the national research agenda for the
sector - New product / service development,
strategy - Corporate co-operation and synergy -
Strategic planning - Research priorities /
network development - Research priorities /
network development - Research priorities /
network development - Innovation strategy -
Research priorities - Innovation opportunities -
Business and product strategy - Global
production strategy - Research priorities -
Technology valuation - Technology development
exploitation, innovation, strategy - Sector
level trends - Asset management strategy -
Development of roadmapping system - Innovation
opportunities synergy - Product / technology
planning - Regional development
Variety of sectors, company sizes and types,
products and services and technologies
Variety of strategic business goals and contexts
23
Standard and customised process
24
Standard process 4 half-day workshops
25
Roadmap structuring and prioritisation
26
Example Market-Product grid (Softco)
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Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)



Prioritisation - from Grid 1 (scale of 10)
Major Pharmaceutical CRO Sofco
5.5 4.7 8.7 5.0 10.0
9.6 5.9 6.8 0.7
3.2 4.8 4.2 8.3 4.1
10.0 9.9 5.8 7.5 0.8
4.2 4.5 1.1 4.9 3.8
3.0 9.5 2.5 10.0
2.7 5.2
Product Feature Concepts
8. Flexible implementation
9. Softco requirements
2. Validated software
Major Pharmaceutical
5. Data management
7. Global solution
10. User friendly
Technology Areas
3. Compliance
6. Labelling
1. Security
4. Services
CRO
Softco
1. Alliances
7.2
7.6
7.8
2. System architecture
10.0
10.0
10.0
3. Design
7.1
7.2
7.1
4. Soft technologies
6.5
6.8
6.9
5. Output technologies
6.3
6.4
6.4
6. Securing technologies
7.6
8.4
8.6

7. Core technologies (re-use)
7.5
8.2
8.3
must have -ve re-use past, re-use future
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Example first-cut technology roadmap (Softco)
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S-Plan approach enables the fuzzy front end
to be explored, to identify and appraise
strategic innovation options opportunities
Process funnel (e.g. strategy, innovation, new
product development)
Pilot
S-Plan
T-Plan standard
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S-Plan workshop process for opportunity
identification and exploration

• Planning
• Focus, scope, aims
• Roadmap architecture
• Process / agenda
• Participants
• Logistics
• Preparation

• Review
• Review learning (about
• organization and
• roadmapping process)
• Review actions, progress
• and way forward

Workshop

• a) Strategic
• landscape
• Present functional
• perspectives
• Capture these and
• other views on
• roadmap wall chart
• Identify, review and
• prioritise key issues

• b) Identify innovation
• opportunities
• Identify and prioritise
• opportunities and
• strategic options

• c) Explore priority
• opportunities
• In small groups, use
• roadmap to define
• opportunity, explore
• way forward and
• identify key issues
• Feedback review
• Repeat, as time
• allows

• d) Way forward
• Review opportunities
• and agree way
• forward / actions
• Review and agree
• how to take
• roadmapping
• forward, in context
• of strategic planning
• and innovation / NPD
• process

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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Vision
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

• Trends Drivers (macro level)
• - Social, Technological, Economic,
• Environmental, Political
• Sector trends
• Competitors

Market Environment
The roadmap architecture is key, providing a
structure and common language to support the
capture and sharing of diverse perspectives
System integrator
Module integrator
Manufacturer
Business (strategy goals)
Programmes

• Architecture example
• Context
• High tech start-up company, focusing on one
  product platform in the electronics sector
• Features of architecture
• The company is several stages removed from the
  end consumer in the value chain, so additional
  layers have been included in the roadmap near the
  top to ensure that the demand-side requirements
  and drivers can be mapped and understood
• The high level product layer (and the associated
  manufacturing process) is separated into two
  broad categories, allowing major programmes to be
  shown, together with the process performance
  targets for the planned product developments
• The components that comprise the product are
  shown, including related activities and services
• Suppliers are critical for achieving the
  business goals, and so this aspect is given
  prominence through its own layer
• The time horizon includes details of quarterly
  periods, looking forward five years, to ensure
  that shareholder expectations are clearly
  represented

Products
Display size Resolution Colour Update Flexibi
lity
Performance

• Product design qualification
• Process qualification
• Customer business case
• Commercial framework
• Tech transfer
• Design services
• On site fab support
• Test solutions

System integrator
Product Components
Module integrator / manufacturer

• Mobility
• Line width
• Material flexibility
• Technology area X
• Sheet
• Technology area Y

Technology Components
Supply dependences

• People
• Facilities
• Finance

Resources / Other
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Start with Perspectives Presentations Priority
Issues and Actions
Short Term (0-1yr)
Medium Term (2-3yrs)
Long Term (4-10yrs)

• xxx
• xxx
• xxx.
• xxx
• xxx

• xxx
• xxx
• xxx.
• xxx
• xxx

• xxx
• xxx
• xxx.
• xxx
• xxx

captured on roadmap wall chart
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(No Transcript)
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Identify future of market sectors A B and key
application Establish contacts with key consumer
groups Establish contacts with key stakeholder
groups 1, 2 3
Market
Survey customers for their requirements Communicat
e strategy (shareholders)
Business
Resource planning IT strategy
Product
Agree and communicate strategy Identify resource
requirements and start recruitment and
training Focussed review of informatics
formulation resource needs (people/facilities) Com
municate market knowledge Review project
portfolio - focus on critical few (matching
market / stop doing some things) Generate key
technology strategy and timeline Develop
knowledge management tools
Technology
Establish RD organisation Clarify roles and
relationships ST/RD/Advanced Services/Man
Tech Develop organisation objectives / vision
metrics Succession management Develop and
implement skills Design, train and implement
culture change
Organisation
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Roadmaps combine multiple perspectives
Perspective
Vision
Current
Roadmap framework supports management of
strategic innovation
36
Planning (customisation checklist)

• Context focus, scope, aims and resources
• Roadmap architecture
• Process
• Participants
• Workshop scheduling
• Integration systems, processes information
• Preparatory work

• Standard process
• - Follow the guide
• Customised process
• - Creative and collaborative
• design activity

37
Summary Conclusions
38
Roadmapping success factors
Source CTM survey, 1999
39
Roadmap maturity model
Kappel, 2001 (Lucent Technologies)
40
Strategic landscape
41
Conclusions

• Benefits of roadmapping
• A focus for integrated strategic planning
• Can be applied in a wide range of contexts
• Supports communication and network development
• Challenges of roadmapping
• Not a magic bullet - initially more questions
  than answers likely
• Maintaining the process - the real benefit lies
  in its ongoing use
• The process and roadmap typically need to be
  customised

42
Useful references

• Willyard and McClees (1987), Motorola's
  Technology Roadmap process, Research Management,
  Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
• EIRMA (1997) Technology Roadmapping -
  delivering business vision, Working Group Report
  No 52
• Groenveld (1997) Roadmapping integrates
  business and technology, Research Technology
  Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
• Kostoff, R.N. (1997), Science and Technology
  Roadmaps, Defense Technical Information Center,
• http//www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html
• Garcia Bray (1997) Fundamentals of
  technology roadmapping, Sandia National Lab,
  http//www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665
• Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography
  http//mason.gmu.edu/rschalle/master.html
• Kappel (2001) Perspectives on roadmaps how
  organizations talk about the future, Journal of
  Product Innovation Management,
• Vol 18, pp39-50
• Research Technology Management - special edition
  on technology roadmapping, Vol. 42 43, No. 2,
  March 2003/4 (11 papers, including
• Domino Printing Sciences, Lucent Technologies,
  Roche and Rockwell Automation experience)