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Climate Change Vulnerability: An Overview

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Climate Change Vulnerability: An Overview Thomas E. Downing SEI Oxford Office Tom.Downing_at_SEI.SE Outline Concepts matter: where you start determines where you end up ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Change Vulnerability: An Overview


1
Climate Change VulnerabilityAn Overview
  • Thomas E. Downing
  • SEI Oxford Office

Tom.Downing_at_SEI.SE
2
Outline
  • Concepts matter where you start determines where
    you end up
  • Linking broadscale vulnerability and sustainable
    livelihoods
  • Integration Integrated vulnerability assessment
    is possible, but best conducted at the local to
    regional level
  • Opportunities in Trieste

3
Linking science and policy Who wants
information on vulnerability?
  • Where are the vulnerable?
  • Targeting geographical region, socio-economic
    class
  • Who are vulnerable?
  • Livelihoods at-risk
  • What should be done?
  • Link climate policy to sustainable development
  • What is the future of vulnerability?
  • Exposure to global change, policy impacts

4
Adaptation space
Policy
Global
CLIMATE CONVENTION
DEVELOPMENT
C
Additionality
Social vulnerability
B
A
Local
Implementation
State
Private
ACTORS
Risk managementSustainable livelihoods
A Farm agro-technologyB National agricultural
developmentC International trade and markets
5
Uses of vulnerability assessments
6
Cost of climatic disasters
Source Paul Freeman et al., IIASA and World Bank
(2001)
7
Cost of disasters in Nicaragua
Without catastrophes, the number of people in
poverty declines, reaching the target in
2010 With catastrophes and no external aid, the
poverty gap increases over time.
Source Paul Freeman, et al.
(2001)
8
Climate impacts perspectives
Climate change
Climate variability
SystemicVulnerability
1st-Nth order impacts
Sustainabledevelopment
Micro-adaptation
Adaptivecapacity
(Sectoral)Vulnerability
Sustainablelivelihoods
9
Starting points
  • Scenario-led
  • Vƒ(Climate change exposure, impacts, adaptation)
  • Climate change is the problem
  • Adaptation is marginal to climate change impacts
  • Short-term responses
  • Vulnerability-first
  • Vrisk of adverse consequences
  • Focus on adaptive capacity and systemic
    properties
  • Solutions in sustainable development
  • Highest priority is climate variability (risk)

10
RISK SPACE
  • Risk is the overlay of hazardand vulnerability
  • Disasters are the realisationof risk
  • Both hazard and vulnerabilityare changing

HAZARD
VULNERABILITY
11
Integrated vulnerability/adaptation
Source Bohle, Watts, Downing
12
Operational vulnerability assessment
  • How do we develop a consensual definition and
    measurement of vulnerability?
  • How do we measure vulnerability?

13
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14
Vulnerability is
  • An aggregate measure of human welfare that
    integrates environmental, social, economic and
    political exposure to a range of harmful
    perturbations.

15
Why talk about Sustainable Livelihoods?
  • Urgent adaptation needs of most vulnerable groups
  • Existence of local coping strategies
  • Hard-won lessons from other (non-climate)
    disciplines (e.g., sustainable livelihoods,
    disaster mitigation, natural resource management)
  • No-regrets options and Triple Dividend
  • Disconnect between community needs and the policy
    process

16
The Sustainable Livelihoods Connection
  • Poverty Vulnerability to Shocks
  • Vulnerability to Climate Extremes
  • At risk of Climate Change
  • Sustainable Livelihoods Resilience to
    shocks Climate Change Adaptation

17
What does Sustainable Livelihoods mean?
  • Sustainable Livelihoods The capability of people
    to make a living and improve their quality of
    life without jeopardizing the livelihood options
    of others.
  • A livelihood is the means, activities,
    entitlements and assets by which people make a
    living.
  • Sustainability implies
  • Ability to cope with and recover from stresses
    and shocks
  • Economic effectiveness
  • Ecological integrity
  • Social equity
  • (Rennie and Singh, 1996)

18
Trends in food security frameworks
  • Exposure
  • Food security --gt Livelihood security
  • VAM
  • Hoovering --gt Structured assessment
  • Single indicator --gt Profiles --gt Pathways?
  • Rescaling
  • Regional --gt Individual --gt Globalisation

19
A formal notation?
20
Vulnerability assessment techniques
  • Indicators and mapping
  • Multi-criteria assessment and profiles
  • Dynamic simulation and multi-agent systems
  • Sustainable livelihoods

21
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22
Global desertification
23
Environmental Sustainability
24
Quantifying Vulnerability and Resilience to
Climate Change

Sensitivity sectors
Coping and Adaptive Capacity sectors
Settlement
Economics
Food
Human Resources
Health
Environment
Ecosystems
Water
Coping-Adaptive Capacity Indicators
Sensitivity Indicators
National Baseline Estimates and Projections of
Sectoral Indicators, Sensitivity and
Coping-Adaptive Capacity, and Vulnerability-Resil
ience Response Indicators to Climate Change
R. Moss2001
25
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26
Italy soil and water
27
Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia
28
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29
Dynamic pathways Linking present vulnerability
to climate outlooks
CommercialFarmers
DisseminationChannels
                   
Emerging Sustainable Farmers
Climate Forecasters

Vulnerable Farmers
  • Multi-agent approach
  • Represent actors as software agents
  • Multi-level vulnerability
  • Emergence from interactions

 
30
What can the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach do?
  • Enhance a communitys portfolio of social
    capital composite of natural, physical,
    financial, technical and human capital
  • Increase livelihood security
  • Enhance capacity to cope with climate-related
    shocks
  • Build capacity to adapt to climate change

31
An Example from India
  • Context Poor rural villages in the drought-prone
    state of Maharashtra
  • Approach Micro-catchment Restoration and
  • Development
  • Actors Local Communities and the Watershed
  • Organisation Trust (WOTR)

Image source http//www.wotr.org/
32
India What happened?
  • Individual villages undertook a package of SL
    measures, designed to regenerate and conserve the
    micro-catchments upon which their community
    depends
  • Community Organization
  • Soil, Land and Water Management (e.g., trench
    building)
  • Crop Management
  • Afforestation Rural Energy Management (e.g,.
    tree-felling ban)
  • Livestock Management Pasture/Fodder Development
    (e.g, grazing restrictions)
  • Micro-lending for supplemental income generation

33
India How did it happen?
  • Community commitment, investment and control
  • Village Self-Help Groups
  • Participatory planning, implementation,
    management
  • Targeted role for women
  • Self-assessment
  • Opportunities for livelihood security
  • Micro-lending Supplemental income generation
  • Community self-help groups
  • Support of local NGO (WOTR)
  • Training and extension services
  • Blending of external and traditional knowledge

34
India What was the result?
  • Satellite imagery of Shenit Watershed

January 1996 Prior to project implementation
December 1999 During project implementation
Standard FCC Using IRS 1C LISS III band 2,3,4
data. Date of scan 19th January 1996. Source
http//www.wotr.org
35
India What was the result?The key outcome has
been reduced vulnerability to drought of
participating communities
  • As of 2001
  • Number of Projects 128
  • Total Area Covered (ha.) 135,812
  • No.of Villages 176
  • No.of NGOs involved 77
  • No.of Districts 22
  • Total Population engaged 210,000 (approx.)

Image source http//www.wotr.org/
36
An Example from Sudan
  • Context Villages in the drought-prone Bara
    Province, Western Sudan
  • Approach Community-Based Rangeland
    Rehabilitation
  • Key Actors Villages within Gireigikh rural
    council, pilot project staff, UNDP/GEF

37
Sudan What happened?
  • A group of villages undertook a package of SL
    measures, designed to regenerate and conserve the
    degraded rangelands upon which their community
    depends. These included
  • Community Organization
  • Alternative Livestock and Livestock Management
  • Rural Energy Management
  • Replanting
  • Stabilization of sand dunes
  • Creation of windbreaks
  • Micro-lending for supplemental
  • income generation

(Image source The Near East Foundation,
http//www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)
38
Sudan What was the result?
  • Effectively combined
  • participatory planning, capacity
  • building and access to credit
  • Diversified production system
  • and established drought
  • contingency measures
  • High impact - Several major objectives exceeded
    original targets project due to perceived
    benefits
  • Positive leakage - additional villages
    implementing project strategies
  • Strategies slated for expansion and replication
    in Province

Image source The Near East Foundation
(http//www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)
39
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation Why do it?
  • The SL approach helps users to
  • Focus on most vulnerable people
  • Assess their vulnerabilities and strengths
  • Tap existing knowledge, ongoing efforts to
    determine what works
  • Enable community-driven strategies and action
    ensure buy-in and longevity
  • Ultimately fortify against climate-related shocks

40
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation How to do
it?
  • Sample approach
  • Identify resilient communities (indicators)
  • Ask why
  • What do they do (strategies and measures)?
  • What do they have (assets, social capital)?
  • Ask what factors/conditions enabled them to carry
    out strategies and measures
  • Distill lessons on how to build community
    resilience to climate impacts

41
ConclusionsApplying the SL Approach What can
it do for adaptation?
  • Using this as a tool in adaptation assessment can
    help to
  • Enable national planning processes to effectively
    consider the most vulnerable groups articulate
    unique local vulnerabilities
  • Identify locally-relevant resilience-building
    options
  • Build understanding of micro- and macro-level
    enabling conditions for adaptation
  • Build local adaptation awareness and engage local
    NGOs (potential adaptation project implementers)

(Image Source Global Mechanism for the UNCDD
website http//www.gm-unccd.org/English/Activities
/Enabling.htm). 
42
Opportunities in Trieste
  • Vulnerability stream
  • Concepts and toolkit
  • Mapping and GIS
  • Indicators
  • Livelihoods practicals
  • Drought early warning
  • Role playing and agent-based modelling
  • Resilient communities
  • Stakeholders
  • Participatory appraisal

43
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