SCO & IRAN: Iranian Security Dream Abbas Maleki

1
SCO IRANIranian Security DreamAbbas Maleki
The 14h International Conference on Central Asia
and the Caucasus " Shanghai Cooperation
Organization Prospects and Opportunities"Tehran,
October 30-31, 2006
2
SCO and its successes

• War against Terrorism
• Ethnic Violence
• Narcotics
• Border Conflicts
• Challenges to unipolar system

3
SCO and its failures

• Disability on playing world class role
• Lack of consensus on political development
• Strengthening of authoritarian regimes
• Expansion of radicalism, separatism

4
What is Irans goal to join SCO?

• Islamic Revolutions perception on convergent
  activities
• Strengthening Irans geopolitical role
• Looking to the East
• Reduce US treats against Iran
• More economic ties with Russia, China and India
• Integrated Energy Market in Asia

5
Islamic Revolutions perception on convergent
activities

• Mahdaviat Doctrine of Hope in Shiia,
• United World Order in
  Future
• The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes
  clear Irans preferences in foreign policy.
• (1) Irans neighbours
• (2) Muslim countries
• (3) Third World countries
• (4) countries that furnish political,
  economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.

6
Islamic Revolutions perception on convergent
activities (2)

• In search of ways to expand its interests, Tehran
  looked towards cooperation with neighbors, with
  other nearby and Muslim states
• Iran became a major player in regional and
  International organizations as
• ECO
• OIC
• OPEC
• SCO
• D8

7
Iran and Initiated Regional Organization

• Persian States Countries
• 
  Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan
• Caspian Cooperation Organization
• Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan,
  Turkmenistan
• Shia Nations Rim
• 1-Iran,
  Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain
• 2-Saudi
  Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon,
• 
  Afghanistan

8
Strengthening Irans geopolitical role

• Irans Subregions
• Middle East
• Persian Gulf
• South West Asia
• Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan
• Caspian Basin

9
Middle East Sub Region
10
Asian Identity
11
Irans advantages

• Irans geographical position,
• culture
• Political hierarchy
• Economic stature
• Military muscle
• give it the potential to play a leading or
  pivotal role in a number of regional
  configurations
• -Persian Gulf
• -Central Asia
• -Caspian Basin

12
What can Iran do?

• Critical tools
• Dialogue with other nations
• Economic and technological advancement
• Regional positioning
• Irans response in foreign relations has mainly
  focused on 3 levels
• Consolidating Irans regional position and
  relations In Middle East
• Deepening the relations with the European Union
  as a leverage against potential future US
  domination in the region
• Seeking a new strategic relationship with Asian
  Countries

13
Looking to the East

• Iran has
• 1 of the worlds population,
• 7 of the worlds natural reserves including
• -10 of the global proven oil reserves
• -16 of the worlds natural gas resources.
• 130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27
  trillion cm gaswhich means 3000 billions

14
Energy resource periphery
Energy demand heartland
15
(No Transcript)
16
Reduce US treats against Iran
17
Irans Neighbors in the day of event

• US full control
• -Afghanistan
• -Azerbaijan
• -Qatar
• -Bahrain

• Russian group
• -Russia
• -Turkmenistan
• -Armenia

• US semi control
• -Iraq -Saudi Arabia
• -Kuwait -UAE
• -Oman -Pakistan
• -Turkey -Kazakhstan

18
US Pressures

• Iran was using the game of showing to shift from
  one super power to another during bipolar system
• US did not desire to see Iran as Iranistan
• After US-Iraq war in 1991 and collapse of Soviet
  Union in 1992, US shifted its policy against
  Iran
• Dual Containment
• ILSA
• Rogue States
• Axis of evils
• Nuclear Pariah
• UNSC Sanctions

19
Can SCO help Iran to manage its challenges?

• Conceptual Challenges in Irans Foreign
  Relations
• Iran-US Relations
• Iran-EU Relations
• Oil price
• Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975)
• Irans share of Hirmand River
• 3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf
• Caspian legal regime

20
Iranian Allies in US-Iran Context

• China
• Economic not political relations not bought and
  paid for
• As a mater of general policy, opposes sanctions,
  but
• Believes Iran should not push the issue
• Russia
• Opportunism
• Iranian mistrust

21
SCO and Lonely Iran

• Iran is a unique state in this region with
  Strategic Loneliness.
• This fact is encouraging Iran to think how would
  be more secure in individual manner.

22
SCO and Middle East security

• No common understanding or framework of security,
  divergent interests
• US strategic presence in Asia and its impact
• - Historically polarising
• - US military umbrella for GCC
• - From indirect to direct hegemony
• - Containment (encirclement) of Iran

23
Potential future Scenarios, Can SCO support Iran?

• Iraq instability continues
• US-Iran confrontation escalates into conflict
• Unpredicted radical change in a GCC state
• US withdraws from Iraq
• Civil war erupts, violence spreads in the region,
  or
• International community steps in to help
  stabilise Iraq

24
Thank youmaleki_at_caspianstudies.com
25
Four Iran Historic Compromises with its Neighbors

• Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921
• Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in
  Persian Gulf, 1971
• Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental
  Borders, 1975
• Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of
  Hirmand Waters, 1976

26
(No Transcript)
27
Irans Regional Foreign Policy

• Regional Challenge
• Caspian Sea Legal Regime
• Persian Gulf States
• Iraq
• Afghanistan

• Historical Compromise
• Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921
• Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in
  Persian Gulf, 1971
• Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental
  Borders, 1975
• Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of
  Hirmand Waters, 1976