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Health, Wealth and the Human race

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Health, Wealth and the Human race The day after tomorrow? * Peter Sims * * Global warming will significantly increase death rates from infectious disease within 2 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Health, Wealth and the Human race


1
Health, Wealth and the Human race
  • The day after tomorrow?

2
The Climate Change Debate
  • Peter Sims
  • Honorary Teaching Fellow Peninsula Medical
    School, England
  • www.petersims.co.uk

3
Where there is much desire to learn there of
necessity will be much arguing,much writing,many
opinions for opinion in good men is but
knowledge in the making
  • John Milton

4
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5
Global Warming
  • Is it true?
  • How important is it?
  • How much time do we have?
  • What is driving it?
  • What can we do?

6
Spaceship Earth
  • The great buffering systems of the planet are
    under threat as the earth grows warmer
  • The Oceans
  • The Rain Forests
  • The Atmosphere
  • The Tundras

7
Time is Running Out
8
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9
Is it true?
  • Sea temperatures have been rising for decades
  • There is good evidence of glaciers melting round
    the world
  • Atmospheric carbon dioxide has been increasing
    for 200 years and is rising faster

10
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11
The Evidence of the Arctic Ice Cap
Since 2007, the Arctic Ice Cap is increasing in
area back towards the average. Again this is the
opposite to predictions
12
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13
Evidence of the Computer Models
Since 1990, IPCC computer modellers have worked
on predicting where the Earths temperature is
supposedly going. We can now see how accurate
they are.
14
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15
What is the Earths normal temperature? Historical
Evidence The last 1,000 yrs
16
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17
  • Evidence of the last 150 years

From 1870 to 1915, fossil fuel use was fairly
flat temp went down
From 1915 to 1940, Fossil fuel use was flat,
temp went up
From 1940 to 1975, Fossil fuel use went up,
temp went down
From 1975 to 1998, Fossil fuel use went up,
temp went up
The first 3 of those periods contradict the idea
CO2 emissions makes the climate warmer
18
The causes
  • Greenhouse gases from Human Activity
  • Industry
  • Transport
  • Agriculture
  • Cyclical long term changes
  • Sunspots

19
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20
The Greenhouse Effect
21
Average Person in UK Carbon footprint-10tonnnes/ye
ar 5tonnes personal and 5 tonnes communal
0.5Public Transport
2.0 Household Gas
0.8 Household electricity
1.0 Air Travel
1.2 Car Travel
5 tonnes personal
22
Individual emissions-share of infrastructure (50
or 5 tons/yr)
5tonnes communal
1.2 tonnes infrastructure and public services
3.3 tonnes production and transportation
costs-food, clothes, cars, houses
23
Where we need to go for sustainability
10 tons in 2010
2 tons by 2030
24
Epidemiological
Ecological
Agent
Social
Global
Ecological
Host
Environs
DISEASE
EPIDEMICS
25
A three-fold increase in Asthma in 30 years?
  • The Industrial revolution fuelled by coal covered
    the cities of western Europe with a pall of smog,
    coating buildings with black soot. The petrol
    fumes from cars and buses damage city
    environments from California to Saudi Arabia and
    produce fog
  • The Power stations burning coal and oil produced
    acid rain destroying plant life.
  • Eastern Europe and the new industrial giants
    China, India produced massive pollution from
    1940-2010
  • The hydrocarbons -,used in refrigeration and
    aerosols eroded the ozone layer.

26
The Price of the Industrial Revolution?
  • The Clean Air act after the 1950s London smogs,
    the banning of aerosols have been important
    steps.
  • Power stations are cleaner, carbon capture is
    much better and alternative energy is back on the
    agenda.
  • But atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have
    continued to rise-as have other greenhouse
    gases (methane)

27
  • Now to understand the Atmosphere and the
    Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) a little.
  • Greenhouse gases are 1 of the Atmosphere.
  • And they are
  • Water Vapour 95
  • Carbon Dioxide 3.6
  • Methane others 1.5
  • Only 3.4 of the CO2 is human caused

28
Now zooming in on that small red section of Human
caused CO2 emissions
  • 1.5 is caused by Australians (green area)
  • ETS will reduce Australia's CO2 by 5 (orange
    area)
  • So in total an ETS in Australia will reduce
    greenhouse gases by a millionth - the equivalent
    of reducing a piece of string a kilometre long by
    one millimetre.

29
Changing Weather patterns
  • Hurricanes, floods, droughts
  • Harvest failures
  • Desertification
  • El-Nino
  • Vector borne disease

30
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31
Evidence of Sea Levels
While Sea levels were rising slowly since 1850,
They have remained stationary since 2006, again
against the predictions.
32
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33
Emerging Infectious Diseases?
  • Disease distributions have changed as vectors
    move-
  • e.g. Mosquito borne disease
  • Areas of drought and flood change and the impact
    of water borne disease-Typhoid, Cholera,
    Schistosomiasis

34
Changing Human Activity
  • Our lives have changed-the rise of tourism, cheap
    air travel for all, vulnerable travellers are
    now much more at risk in alien environments. e.g.
    Diabetics, Immuno-suppresed
  • Epidemic patterns and the spread of diseases like
    AIDS,SAARS reflect human lifestyles, trade routes
    and behaviour patterns.
  • We are at war around the planet, the impact of
    war on disease are part of human history e.g.
    Smallpox, Syphilis, Anthrax, Influenza

35
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36
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37
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38
Environmental Refugees?
  • There have always been environmental refugees-the
    Israelites sought corn in Egyptbut this is an
    order of magnitude more than in 2005
  • By 2020 up to 50 million people escaping from
    environmental deterioration-floods, droughts,
    famine
  • Health Risk-Physical Illness, Mental Distress,
    Infectious Disease

39
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40
The American Dream?
41
So has anyone priced what an ETS will cost our
businesses?
Yes the Business Council of Australia reported
this survey
42
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43
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44
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45
Sub-Saharan Africa 2,000 BC to 2200 AD
46
BlueBirths,Redpopulation,YellowDeaths
1200
1000
800
Births 35/1000
600
Deaths 33/1000
400
200
0
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
Deaths Births Population
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
47
Prevention
  • Primary-global warming is a fact, the debate is
    how much there will be, what can be done to
    reduce further warming?
  • Secondary-Accurate Forecasting, Better defences,
    Adequate supplies
  • Tertiary-Disaster preparedness-a world wide rapid
    response to catastrophe

48
Primary Prevention
  • Carbon capture
  • Alternative energy supplies wind,sun,wave,nuclear
  • Technology-GM foods
  • Human behaviour
  • Education, Legislation, Fiscal Policy

49
Secondary Prevention
  • Improved forecasting, computer models
  • Defences-tidal, temperature, vectors
  • Recycling. Reuse-waste management, desalination,
    irrigation
  • Supplies of Food, Water and Energy and their fair
    distribution
  • World survival means global government

50
The Risk to Health
Climate Change natural and man made
Other environmental change
Finding the resources
Human behaviour
51
Rich World-Poor World
52
Benign Uproar
Adversarial Thinking or
Parallel Thinking
53
There is a tide in the affairs of men Which
taken at the flood leads on to fortune
Julius Caesar Shakespeare
54
References
  • Sustaining a Healthy Future-taking action on
    climate change
  • Faculty of Public Health Medicine 2009
  • The Health Practitioners Guide to Climate
    Change-Diagnosis and Cure
  • Earthscan 2009
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