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Agricultural Investment in a Time of Climate Change

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Agricultural Investment in a Time of Climate Change New Tools and Approaches for Improving Investor Decision-Making and Producer Uptake * * * * * * * * * * * * Recent ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Agricultural Investment in a Time of Climate Change


1
Agricultural Investmentin a Time of Climate
Change
New Tools and Approachesfor Improving Investor
Decision-Making and Producer Uptake
2
Recent, Ongoing FAO Work on Climate Change Tools
  • Mitigation EX-ACT (Ex-Ante Carbon-balance Tool)
    Determining the carbon balance of investments
  • http//www.fao.org/tc/tcs/exact/ex-act-tool/en/
  • Adaptation CLIMPAG Assessing the impacts of
    climate change on agricultural yields
  • http//www.fao.org/nr/climpag/

3
EX-ACT Background
  • Agriculture is a major source of GHG,
    contributing 14 of global emissions. CC
    mitigation potential for the sector is high, and
    for the largest part (ca. ¾) located in
    developing countries. Many technical options are
    available, that however require changes in
    agricultural technologies and management
    practices
  • Reducing CO2 emissions through reduction in the
    rate of deforestation and forest degradation,
    adoption of improved cropland mgmt. practices
    (reduced tillage, integrated nutrient water
    mgmt.)
  • Reducing CH4 and N2O emissions through improved
    animal production and mgmt. of livestock waste,
    more efficient mgmt. of irrigation water on rice
    paddies, improved nutrient mgmt. and,
  • Sequestering carbon through CA and improved
    forest mgmt. practices, afforestation and
    reforestation, agro forestry, improved grasslands
    mgmt., restoration of degraded land.

4
EX-ACT Background (cont.)
  • Nevertheless, there is a lack of methodologies to
    guide the integration of significant mitigation
    effects into the project/programme design
    process, and hence the decision making on funding
    aspects, complementing the usual ex-ante economic
    analysis of investments projects.
  • To fill this gap, three FAO divisions (Policy and
    Programme Development Support Division,
    Investment Centre Division, and Agricultural
    Development Economics Division) joined efforts to
    develop the EX-ACT tool, aimed at providing
    ex-ante estimations of the impact of agriculture
    and (agro)forestry development projects on GHG
    emissions and Carbon sequestration, indicating
    its effects on the Carbon balance.

5
EX-ACT Logic, Contents and Outputs
The logic behind the EX-ACT tool(with/without
project situation comparison)
  • EX-ACT consists of a set of linked Excel sheets
    in which the project designer will insert basic
    data on land use and management practices
    foreseen under the project activities
  • The main output of the tool is the C-balance
    resulting from project activities. The
    environmental services supplied by the project
    could then be priced, valued and incorporated in
    the economic analysis. Also, a set of indicators
    will complement the economic analysis providing
    information about the efficiency of the project
    in providing environmental services or the
    potential contribution of such services to farm
    incomes.

6
EX-ACT Testing and Wide Scale Implementation
  • EX-ACT went through a peer-review process in
    order to be adopted in international
    organizations and donor agencies involved in
    agriculture and (agro)forestry investment
    projects.
  • After testing in a series of real-life cases
    (mostly IFAD projects) the tool is now available
    for free use by donors/IFI, technical agencies
    and development practitioners worldwide.
    Appropriate training, software updating and
    technical quality monitoring framework are being
    put in place.
  • Initiated for being used at project and program
    level, the tool will also be tested to be used in
    national sector strategies and policies (e.g. to
    compute the C-balance of aggregated agriculture
    sector strategies and policy options) or for
    regional initiatives.

7
CLIMPAG Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on
Agricultural Yields
  • Adaptation practices require extensive high
    quality data and information on climate, and on
    agricultural, environmental and social systems
    affected by climate, with a view to carrying out
    realistic vulnerability assessments and looking
    towards the near future.
  • CLIMPAG is aimed at bringing together the various
    aspects and interactions between weather, climate
    and agriculture in the general context of food
    security.
  • It contains methodologies and tools (including
    modeling) for a better understanding and analysis
    of the effect of the variability of weather and
    climate on agricultural yields as well as data
    and maps.

8
CLIMPAG Overall Picture
Climate Projections based on modeling
Physical impacts on main crops and rangelands
livestock activities
Impacts on farming systems
Economic impacts
Policy adaptation options investment decisions
9
CLIMPAG Data Available
  • A variety of data and tools are made available
    including
  • climate indicators
  • global climate grids, climate maps
  • rainfall variability data
  • climate monitoring
  • climate risk and spatial interpolation.

10
CLIMPAG Hotspots/Natural Disasters
  • Specific analyses provided on hotspots, i.e.
    areas where conflicts between the environment and
    agriculture disrupt agricultural production
  • For example, global water stress maps indicate
    areas where an excess or deficit of rainfall will
    have adverse impacts on agriculture
  • Analyses of natural disaster impacts on
    agriculture also provided through CLIMPAG
  • RADAR (Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment
    Routine)

11
CLIMPAG Advice and Warnings
  • Recommendations provided based on synthesized
    data analysis
  • Advice and warnings section provides information
    on
  • Communication to farmers
  • Crop insurance
  • Frost protection
  • Response farming
  • Crop monitoring and forecasting.

12
CLIMPAG Conclusions
  • Variety of information, easily accessible
  • Useful tools in making agricultural policy and
    investment decisions
  • Climate projections and modeling require reliable
    country-level agro-meteorological data series,
    adequate grid size
  • Assumptions on technology trend may be
    predominant factor in models.

13
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • Illustrative List of Projects (total resources
    mobilised US1.6 billion)

14
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • (cont)

15
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • (cont)

16
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • (cont)

17
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • (cont)

18
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • Summary

19
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • (cont)

20
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation/Mitigation
in Investment Operationswith FAO Investment
Centre Involvement
  • Sample summary

For additional info, queries on this topic,
please contact Ms Katia Medeiros (FAO/TCI), EM
Katia.Medeiros_at_fao.org
21
Key Issues
  • Intensified experience sharing and stocktaking
    between practitioners and development
    institutions on how to address perceived
    needs/issues to foster adoption of novel CC
    related tools and approaches, which include
  • Usually the main objectives of the investment
    project are not to mitigate or adapt to CC
    (stand-alone CC projects are still rare in our
    work)
  • Need for more clear and measurable CC adaptation/
    mitigation elements for use in project design and
    implementation inclusion of specific indicators
  • IFI CC policies are clear at the conceptual
    level, but guidance on how to incorporate them
    into project design is lacking
  • In some cases, better defined countries key
    priorities, enabling policies and operational
    regulations are needed.

22
Thank You
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