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Global Warming and Science

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Title: Global Warming and Science


1
Global Warming and Science
  • So far the balanced story of basic science is not
    getting through to the public
  • There is at least one alternate hypothesis
  • and a new theory
  • Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto

2
(No Transcript)
3
What is Global Warming?
  • Throughout time the Earths climate has varied
  • Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya)
    there have been at least 30 glacial -
    interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000
    years duration with interglacial periods warmer
    than now between them
  • Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000
    years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average).
  • ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year one might
    say its slowing down.
  • All the worlds coastal tribes have flood myths
    because they lived on the continental shelves.
  • Between glacial ages the climate varies due to
    external and internal influences some result in
    cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm
  • There are short-term cycles e.g. El Niño,
    among others for example - the 10 to 12 year
    long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate
    to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean
    masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle.

4
Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the ice
age
5
Pennekamp Park Key LargoReefs keep pace with
sea level rise
6
Solar System
7
What If?
  • If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat,
    we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night
    and end up like a sun-dried tomato
  • Mercury - 427 to 172 ºC
  • Mars - temperate zone soil
  • 27 to 80 ºC
  • Moon - 107 to 153 ºC

8
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
  • Certain gasses in the atmosphere absorb heat
    energy and reduce the amount that escapes into
    space
  • This trapping of heat from our only source of
    warmth the Sun by the atmosphere is known as
    the Greenhouse Effect
  • This gives us a global average temperature of
    15C rather than -18C if we had no Greenhouse
    Effect

9
Important Facts
  • Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas
    - 60 - 98 of the greenhouse effect is due to
    water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out)
  • CO2 and other minor gasses account for the
    remainder

10
Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (including
water vapour) http//www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/gr
eenhouse_data.html
11
Is Global Warming Happening?
  • Lets examine some very wiggly curves
  • Death Valley California - temperature trend

12
Berkeley California
13
Blaine Washington
14
New York NY
15
Albany NY
16
Harrisburg Pa Civil War gap
17
State University Mississippi
18
Chicago Illinois
19
Houlton Maine - Did someone shoot the weatherman?
20
Buffalo NY
21
Niagara Falls NY - 1911
22
Key West Florida
23
Global Warming
  • Typically the majority of weather stations yield
    corrupt time series data
  • Those weather stations are located where people
    are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample
    of the surface of the world, rather a measure of
    increasing human density
  • Death Valley, Key West, Blaine, and Houlton are
    far (remote) from urban centres and are likely
    more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany
    vs. New York City?
  • Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from
    satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements
    give a much smaller warming.

24
Realistically
  • The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner
    the alarmists claim
  • There are many other sites that demonstrate
    cooling
  • I accept the warming but not the drama
  • I do not accept the popular cause CO2
  • Why are the graphs so wiggly?
  • Because climate is not weather

25
Kamél, 2003
  • In the past couple of years, new and better
    analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a
    better time resolution, have shown that first
    temperature rises, and then carbon dioxide levels
    increase. It is the temperature increase which
    causes the increase in CO2 and not the other way
    around.
  • The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra
    warming to what is going on, but not even that is
    certain.

26
CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing
phenomenon
  • Throughout the greatest temperature transitions
    experienced by the planet over the past 420,000
    years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been
    proven to have been a follower, and not a leader,
    of climate change, rising from one to five
    thousand years after major increases in air
    temperature, and falling in similar manner
    throughout the course of the past four
    glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001).

27
Observations
  • Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due to
    warming of the oceans
  • CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your
    Guinness to see this effect)
  • CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas
    effect more CO2 less effectiveness

28
CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid
  • Solubility of solids increases directly with
    temperature of the solvent
  • sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than
    cold
  • Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold water
    and evolves rapidly out of warm water
  • Dont shake your Guinness!

29
And
  • You might say, and alarmists say every day,
    that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the
    industrial revolution is tipping the climate over
    into uncontrollable heating

30
CO2 Feedback effect
  • Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél,
    2003)
  • Analogous to Venetian blinds and light
  • Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds
    to the same window becomes decreasingly effective
    in blocking incoming light
  • More CO2 less additional greenhouse effect
  • Increase in CO2 has less effect because
  • Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has
    exactly one important spectral line in the
    infrared part of the spectrum. This line is
    clearly saturated.
  • If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in
    the atmosphere, not much will happen

31
Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - vs.
increasing CO2 content - Willis Eschenbach
32
Absorption wavelength CO2 vs. H2O
33
Look up! - recognise the variation is in the
fourth significant digit
34
Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003
35
Sunspot peak frequency vs. temperature
anomalyBlack Temperature anomalyRed Sun
spot peak frequency
36
Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science
Magazine
  • 95 correlation between sunspot peak frequency
    and the temperature anomaly
  • Sunspot curve, moreover, does lead the
    temperature curve
  • But, correlation is not causation
  • What is the cause?

37
Danish National Space Centre
  • An essential role for remote stars in everyday
    weather on Earth has been revealed by an
    experiment at the Danish National Space Center in
    Copenhagen. It is already well-established that
    when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic
    particles originating in exploded stars far away
    in the Milky Way, penetrate the Earths
    atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of
    ions and release free electrons.
  • Now, results from the Danish experiment show that
    the released electrons play a significant role in
    promoting the formation of building blocks for
    cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor
    condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal
    mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the
    production of clouds in Earths atmosphere has
    been experimentally identified for the first
    time.
  • http//www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-relea
    ses/getting-closer-to-the-cosmic-connection-to-cli
    mate

38
Danish Space Centre Theory
  • Active sun ? enhanced magnetic and thermal flux
    solar wind ? geomagnetic shield response ? less
    low-level clouds ? less albedo (less heat
    reflected)  ? warmer climate
  • Less active sun ? reduced magnetic and thermal
    flux reduced solar wind ? geomagnetic shield
    drops ? galactic cosmic ray flux ? more low-level
    clouds ? More snow ? more albedo (more heat
    reflected) ? colder climate
  • That's how the bulk of climate change works
  • Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are
    cycles of global warming and cooling like waves
    in the ocean

39
Potentially large sources of cosmic radiation
when stars supernova
40
CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science,
1991) www.friendsofscience.org
41
CO2 and Temperature Anomaly
  • Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890 to 1950
  • CO2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly
    from 1940 to 1970
  • Temperature rise does correlate with solar
    activity
  • CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming

42
Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas
  • The most variable component of the atmosphere is
    water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud
    droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the
    strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and
    because the transition between the various phases
    absorb and release so much energy, water vapour
    is central to the climate and its variability and
    change.
  • Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis
    Section 1.1.2 The Climate System

43
We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since
sunspots were first recorded
44
Cycle 23
  • The cycle was short - 10 years (out of 11)
  • Bimodal peak is interesting (cycle 22 was bimodal
    too)
  • We are experiencing the sunspot minimum this fall
    and winter
  • Anecdotally, this is consistent with both a
    warmer than usual climate and also the result of
    the Danish cloud chamber experiment
  • High precipitation in humid regions of the planet
    like the Great Lakes Region and NA west coast
  • Desertification in regions of low humidity
  • El Nino

45
Why? Realistically?
  • Is CO2 the target?
  • CO2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)?
  • Media propagation? Bottom Line
  • Repetition of stale science
  • Bandwagon science? - DDT and Malaria!
  • Consensus science? - Copernicus and Galileo!
  • Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick
  • Research grants? Tied to outcome
  • All of the above?

46
Original Sin
  • Gracious no! Humans can only claim
    responsibility, if that's the word, for about
    3.4 of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere
    annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC,
    Woods Hole)
  • Anthropogenic 0.11 of the global CO2 cycle
  • www.CO2Science.org

47
My hypothesis is very weak
  • Eruption of Krakatau, 1883

48
Skepticism or Objectivity
49
Moving to higher ground above An Inconvenient
Truth
  • "A scientific hypothesis that survives
    experimental testing becomes a scientific theory"

50
Key References
  • Friss-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991 Length
    of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar
    activity closely associated with climate,
    Science, New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1,
    1991, pp.698-700.
  • Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel
    D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I.
    Uggerhoj, 2006 Experimental evidence for the
    role of ions in particle nucleation under
    atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal
    Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi10.1098/rspa.2006
    1773. Published online.

51
References
  • Temperature
  • Lars Kamél, 2003 Temperature measurements Is
    climate research pseudo science?
  • Swedish original text from June, English
    translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made
    since.
  • http//www.astro.uu.se/l/noworry.htm
  • United States Historical Climatology Network
    dataset
  • http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc
    n/ushcn.html

52
References
  • CO2 as plant food
  • Eamus, D. 1996 Responses of field grown trees to
    CO2 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75
    39-47.
  • Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003 Vegetation index
    trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999.
    Geophysical Research Letters 30
    10.1029/2002GL016772.
  • Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998
    Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO2
    atmosphere. New Phytologist 139 395-436.

53
References
CO2 Saturation Elachi, Charles, 1987
Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of
Remote Sensing (John Wiley Sons) Kamél,
Lars, 2003 Why we don't have to worry about CO2,
Department of Astronomy and Space Physics,
Uppsala, Sweden http//www.astro.uu.se/l/noworr
y.htm CO2 Trailing effect Mudelsee, M., 2001
The phase relations among atmospheric CO2
content, temperature and global ice volume over
the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20
583-589.
54
Other Reading
  • deFreitas, C.R., 2002 Are observed changes in
    the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
    atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of
    Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50, No. 2 (June
    2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and
    Environmental Science, Auckland, New Zealand.
  • McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005
    Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious
    significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32,
    L03710, doi10.1029/2004GL021750
  • Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H.
    Said, 2006 Ad hoc committee report on the
    Hockey stick global climate reconstruction, To
    The Chairman of the Committee on Energy and
    Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on
    Oversight and Investigations, US House of
    Representatives.
  • The IPCC Report Climate Change 2001 Third
    Assessment Report consists of four sub-reports
    1) Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis, 2)
    Climate Change 2001 Impacts , Adaptation and
    Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change
    2001Mitigation, and 4) Climate Change 2001
    Synthesis Report.

55
Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo.
(Ontario) artesian1_at_sympatico.ca 323 Blantyre
Avenue Toronto Ontario M1N 2S6 Canada 416-698-6291
56
Acknowledgements
  • Jim Tilsley
  • Les Manns
  • Richard Bedell
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