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Hezbollah

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Hezbollah Party of God An Awareness Briefing August 9th, 2009 DET-1 CENTCOM ARE * * * * 101 applications of amphibious capability in the past 25 years, covering ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Hezbollah


1
HezbollahParty of God
  • An Awareness Briefing
  • August 9th, 2009

2
Agenda
  • Objectives
  • Lebanon Historical Overview
  • Hezbollah defined by actions events
  • Events timeline
  • Emergence
  • Organization
  • Ideology
  • Political Evolution
  • Threat Assessment
  • Expectations
  • Changing Threat the Combat Environment
  • Conclusions
  • Take-Aways

3
Objectives
  • Provide greater awareness on Hezbollah
  • Mandatory 4 Ws, but also
  • Who/How Hezbollahs Emergence and Sustainment
  • What Threat Capabilities Ideology
  • Where Geo-Political Environment Path to
    Mainstream
  • When Evolution Future Expectations
  • what about the Y?
  • Why relevant and important to us as Professional
    War fighters?

Sun Tzu know your enemies and know yourself
4
Lebanon Overview
Demographics
  • 1946-1974
  • 50 Christians ?
  • 30 Sunni Muslims ?
  • 15 Shiite Muslims ?
  • 5 Druze ?
  • 1974 - Present
  • 30 Christians ?
  • 40 Sunni Muslims ?
  • 25 Shiite Muslims ?
  • 5 Druze ?

5
Historical Events
  • Up to 1974 Consociation Democracy
    ethno-factional appointments
  • President Christian
  • Prime Minister Muslim
  • Chief of Staff of Lebanese Army Christian
  • Deputy Chief of Staff Muslim
  • 1971 Expulsion of Palestinian guerrillas from
    Jordan set up base of operations for launching
    attacks on Israel cause political instability.
  • 1974-75 Increasing tensions
  • Muslims feel increasingly discontent.
  • Christians feel increasingly threatened by
    growing Muslim population Palestinian
    provocation which draw Israeli military
    reprisals.
  • Christians and Muslims organize into opposing
    militias with increasing fighting.
  • Government incapable of curbing violence and
    Lebanese army splits into opposing militias.

6
Civil War and Internationalized CW
  • 1976 Chaos random killings, factional
    fighting refugees.
  • Syria intervenes via secret agreement with Israel
    and decision by Arab League on side of the
    Christian Phalanges.
  • Initial Syrian-Palestinian and Syrian-Muslim
    clashes.
  • Syrian intervention quells violence but sporadic
    violence continues
  • Estimated death toll 44,000 dead, and 180,000
    wounded
  • Israel establishes military ties with Christians
    in Lebanon. In Southern Lebanon, a Christian
    Militia (SLA) is formed supported by Israel.
  • Frequent clashes between different factions in
    Lebanon, and civil war resumes
  • 1978 Growing influences disappearance of
    Al-Sadr success of Iranian (Shia) Revolution
  • 1981 Escalation between militias, Syria,
    Israelis and PLO.
  • 1982 Israeli Intervention Invasion to
  • Drive Palestinian guerrillas out of Lebanon
  • Drive Syrian forces out of Lebanon
  • Restore Lebanese government under Christian
    domination in collaboration with the Christian
    Phalanges - Bashir Jumayel)
  • Sign peace treaty newly restored Lebanon
    government/

7
Hezbollah Emerges
  • 1982 Hezbollah Born
  • Israel invasion puts Beirut under siege forces
    evacuation of PLO from West Beirut and relocation
    to Tunis
  • Bashir Jumayel elected president, but immediately
    assassinated.
  • Christian militias, in coordination with Israelis
    enter Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and
    Shatilla and commit mass murder of Palestinians
  • Israel greeted with flowers begins occupation
    of Lebanon and confronts a coalition of
    opponents all Muslim factions, Druze
    increasing Christian allied groups
  • Hezbollah forms in South in opposition to Israel
    begins operations against Israelis, American
    and French.
  • 1983 American and French troops withdrawn
    following Beirut Marine bombing.
  • 1985 Israel withdraws its forces but maintains
    a small force in Southern Lebanon through May 2000

8
Hezbollah Defined
  • Hezbollah may be the A team of terrorists, and
    maybe al-Qaeda is actually the B team. - Former
    Deputy Secretary of State Armitage, Congressional
    Testimony 2002
  • AKA - Hizballah, Islamic Jihad, Revolutionary
    Justice Organization, Organization of the
    Oppressed on Earth, Islamic Jihad for the
    Liberation of Palestine
  • Prior to 9/11 terrorist group responsible for
    the most deaths of Americans
  • Disappearance of Imam Musa Al- Sadr and Iranian
    Revolution (1978-9) helped foment rising support
    for Hezbollah.
  • A Shi'ite organization based in Lebanon
    dedicated to the removal of Israel from Lebanon
    and Palestine.
  • Strong support from Iran financial Iranian
    Guards (1982) and Syrians against Israelis
  • Has political party providing services
    throughout Lebanon (57) Parliamentary seats
  • Military wing is the Islamic Resistance
    Movement (AKA HAMAS)
  • - Links to other terrorist groups
    trans-national criminal networks
  • - One of first groups to conduct suicide
    bombings
  • - Has carried out attacks on 3 continents

9
Events Actions
  • 1989 On-going Peace process
  • Lebanese parliament accepts Arab-brokered peace
    accord and Syria assists Lebanon's national army
    to control the country's various factions.
  • Hezbollah loses Syrian sponsorship but had built
    cultural and political institutions that would
    sustain.
  • 1993 Olso Accord Gaza-Jericho Agreement
  • Palestinian sovereignty in the Gaza Strip and the
    West Bank with withdrawal of Israelis from West
    Bank
  • Never took effect due to the assassination of
    Rabin and Israeli refusal to withdraw.
  • Hezbollah joins radical Arab Alliance and
    actively fights Middle East peace processes
  • 2000 Cross Border Operations against Israel
  • Focused attacks on the Israeli Defense Forces
    (IDF) and Israeli-allied South Lebanon Army
    (SLA).
  • Hezbollah efforts to end Israel's occupation -
    cross-border operations kidnappings.
  • Israeli forces withdrew and SLA.
  • Hezbollah increasingly demonstrates independence
    from Iran and Syria even played both against
    one another.
  • 2001 9/11 Attacks on US
  • Despite celebrations, Hezbollah officially
    denounced
  • U.S. asked International Community to freeze the
    group's assets and register Hezbollah a terrorist
    organization.

10
Events Actions
  • 2005 Lebanese Sovereignty
  • Feb assassination of Hariri suspected by Syria
  • UN Resolution 1559 Syrian withdrawal
  • 2006 2006 War
  • Kidnapping led to 34-day Israeli invasion
  • Huge causalities economic impact
  • Hezbollah emboldened by resistance victory
  • Condemned regionally with disastrous political
    effects, but greater legitimacy amongst
    international sponsors/donors.
  • Future When will international community
    recognize political side of Hezbollah?

The resistance withstood the attack and fought
back. It did not wage a guerrilla war
either...it was not a regular army but was not a
guerrilla in the traditional sense either. It
was something in between. This is the new
model. - Nasrallah
11
Evolving Threat
  • Hezbollah is modeled after Irans model
  • Well-organized with dichotomy of political and
    military capabilities
  • Powerful cultural and political force operating
    hospitals, schools, and even their own television
    station in Lebanon.
  • Training bases are in the Bekka Valley in South
    with strongholds in the southern and western
    suburbs of Beirut.
  • Active armed members are estimated around 1000,
    and the group has wide-reaching support among
    Lebanon's Shi'ite population.
  • Legitimate powerful political party portrays
    military attacks as legitimate resistance against
    Israeli aggression.
  • Tactics include car bombs, suicide bombers, and
    attacks on Jewish settlements with (Katuysha)
    rockets.
  • Hezbollah maintains cells in Europe, Africa,
    South America, and North America.

12
Organization
  • Modeled after Iran
  • Legitimacy.
  • Lebanese Government allows Hezbollah to operate
    freely as long as it adheres to Lebanese laws.
  • Increased seats 14 direct and 57 (coalition) of
    the 128 -member Parliament in Lebanon.
  • The Secretary General of Hezbollah is Hassan
    Nasrallah, a former leader of the rival Shi'ite
    movement Amal.
  • Hezbollah is now considered to be the most
    powerful political force within Lebanon.

13
Organization
  • All plans and coordination for military and/or
    terrorist operations worldwide.

and we will not to abandon this fight and have
never abandoned it. We are in a position where we
will fight openly and we will fight
clandestinely." - Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of
Hezbollah, admitted the existence of a Hezbollah
unit responsible for activities with the
Palestinians.
14
Hezbollah Ideology
  • Hezbollah's original and immediate goal was to
    end the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon,
    and to fight for the liberation of Palestinian
    lands. Expanded to include (according to
    political platform, first published in 1985
  • The solution to Lebanon's problems is the
    establishment of an Islamic republic as only this
    type of regime can secure justice and equality
    for all of Lebanon's citizens.
  • Fight against 'western imperialism' and its
    eradication from Lebanon and complete withdrawal
    of American and French forces and all their
    institutions from Lebanon.
  • Complete destruction of the State of Israel and
    the establishment of Islamic rule over Jerusalem.
  • Hezbollah's ideology is based in the Shi'a
    tradition of Islam, specifically in the concept
    of Willayat Al-Faqih put forth by Ayatollah
    Khomeini and other Islamic scholars in Iran.
  • Hezbollah seeks to set up an Islamic government
    in Lebanon modeled after the one in Iran.

15
Political Alliances
  • March 14 Coalition (Sunni) took advantage of
    post 2006 anger with Hezbollah to surprise and
    win the majority in the 128-member parliament
    with 71 seats.
  • Hezbollah-led coalition (March 8th Alliance) won
    a total of 57 with its coalitions (i.e. rival
    Shia group, Amal).
  • Significant and unexpected defeat for Hezbollah
    and the interest of its allies (Iran and Syria)
    and sponsors..

16
Sponsors Support
  • Hezbollah receives financial political
    assistance as well as weapons and training
  • Local offerings or Zakat contributions right
    after prayers
  • Financial Support from Iran (100M in money and
    equipment)
  • Foreign Assistance and international Sponsors
    and fundraising is estimated at hundreds of
    millions annually.
  • Supply routes (most are via Syria)
  • Illegal Operations such as
  • Counterfeiting (US dollars)
  • Drug smuggling
  • Illegal cigarette Smuggle

17
Perspective UN EU
  • 2004 - UN Security Council Resolution 1559
  • - Goal is to disband and disarm any Lebanese
    and non-Lebanese militia including Hezbollah.
  • - To bring Lebanon and Israel into complete
    compliance with UN Resolution 425 (1978- which
    called for Israels withdraw from area known as
    Blue Line)
  • 2005 - European Union there is clear evidence
    that Hezbollah has perpetrated terrorist
    activities and is a terrorist organization.
  • 2008 - Lebanons Prime Minister Siniora says the
    only way to disarm Hezbollah is for Israel to
    completely withdraw from area of Shebaa Farms.

18
Perspective US
  • Since 1983 Marine barracks attack, FBI CIA
    Hezbollah on Watch List.
  • U.S. implements sanctions against Iran Syria to
    curtail funding and support.
  • July 2000 FBI uncovered large fundraising
    scams by Hezbollah operatives in the U.S. FBI
    continues to prevent any fund raising abilities
    by Hezbollah.
  • U.S. State Department places Hezbollah on the
    list of Foreign Terrorist Organization
  • September 2001 President Bush vows to pursue
    ANY nation harboring terrorists.
  • 2006-2007 U.S. pledged more than 1 Million
    dollars assistance to rebuild Lebanon.
  • Power of Hezbollah remains strong, Lebanese
    Government cant force Hezbollah out without
    strong commitment from U.S. and allies. No one is
    prepared to make. Iranian and Syrian backing
    continues.
  • Disarming Hezbollah not practical.
  • It is believed Hezbollah could be THE next major
    threat to United States and its allies.

19
Why Important for us?
  • Represents changing complexity of Combat
    Environment with increasing threats and players.
  • Hezbollah has evolved into the most capable new
    class of threats transitioning from terrorist
    group into hybrid environment.
  • it is common to define and divide the
    so-called "high end" from the "low end," the
    conventional from the irregular armored
    divisions on one side, guerrillas toting AK-47s
    on the other. In reality, the categories of
    warfare are blurring and do not fit into neat,
    tidy boxes.
  • We can expect to see more tools and tactics of
    destruction - from the sophisticated to the
    simple - being employed simultaneously in hybrid
    and more complex forms of warfare.
  • As defense scholars have noted, these hybrid
    scenarios combine the "lethality of state
    conflict with the fanatical and protracted fervor
    of irregular warfare.
  • SecDef, Foreign Affairs

20
Hybrid Environment
Conventional Capabilities
Terrorism
Irregular Warfare
Hybrid Conflicts
Criminality
Hybrid Threats Any adversary that simultaneously
and adaptively employs a fused mix of
conventional weapons, irregular tactics,
terrorism, and criminal behavior in the same
battle space to obtain their political
objectives.
21
Definitional Issues
  • Basis for definition modes vice structural
  • Admixture of different modes/methods of fighting
    or
  • Hybrid as composite of state non-state actors
  • Simultaneous?
  • All four modes?
  • Degree of operational and tactical fusion
  • State based forms

In reality, there is a continuum of methods
between the polar extremes of the Maginot Line
and the Viet Cong, and most real world cases have
always fallen somewhere in between.
22
Hezbollah The Prototype
  • State-like capabilities
  • Long Range Missiles
  • Anti-ship Cruise Missiles
  • Anti-armor systems
  • UAVs
  • SIGINT
  • Selected tactics
  • Highly trained in traditional and irregular
    modes
  • Extensive preparations
  • Exploitation of political effects

Hezbollahs combat cells were a hybrid of
guerrillas and regular troops - a form of
opponent that U.S. forces are apt to encounter
with increasing frequency. Ralph Peters
23
Recent Analysis
  • Rigorous analysis from IDF perspective found
    that Hezbollah was unique
  • Decomposition did not address rockets,
    combinations and Hz Info ops
  • Argues that large-scale transformation for IW may
    be ill advised.

Despite claims of victory by Mr. Nasrallah
over Israel, he delivered a kind of apology to
the Lebanese, saying he would not have ordered
the cross-border raid that precipitated the
conflict if he had known that Israel would
respond with a 34-day juggernaut, leaving more
than 1,000 people dead and parts of the country
in ruins.
The resistance withstood the attack and fought
back. It did not wage a guerrilla war either...
it was not a regular army, but was not a
guerrilla in the traditional sense either. It
was something in between. This is the new
model. Nasrallah
24
Spectrum of Operations
MOST LIKELY
Train/Advise/Assist
Building Partner Capacity
Relief Operations
Peace Enforcement
Frequency
MOST DANGEROUS
Show of Force
NEO
Acts of Terrorism
COIN
Civil War
Limited War
Forcible Entry
Regional Conflict
Global War
Peacetime and Crisis
Low Intensity Conflict
Mid-Intensity Conflict
High Intensity Conflict
INTENSITY LEVEL
25
Likely Operations
Humanitarian Assistance
Most Likely, More Complex and Increasingly More
Lethal
Relief Operations
Peace Enforcement
Show of Force
Frequency
Noncombatant Evacuation
COIN
Selective Strike
Train/Advise
Terrorism
Nation building
Civil War
Terrorism
Global War
Major Combat
Peacetime Crisis
Low-Intensity Conflict
Mid-Intensity Conflict
High-Intensity Conflict
26
Conclusions
  • Hezbollah a model for the future of the
    transformation of threat.
  • Level of violence by Hezbollah linked to
    political aspirations
  • Tactical vs. operational
  • Likelihood of violence declines in election
    cycles, indicating Hezbollah subordinates its
    military goals to its political needs.
  • Hezbollah as become an organization that makes
    more careful and strategic calculations, but is
    pulled between competing influences - Sponsors
    and their political interests.
  • What to watch the collision between the Lebanese
    government and Army and its growing and
    consolidating militias and Hezbollah?

27
QUESTIONS?
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