Daffodils, Kudzu, and Emerging Challenges

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Daffodils, Kudzu, and Emerging Challenges
Trees Are The Answer OKI Regional Conservation
Council Annual Meeting March 29th, 2007
Marc F Hult, Chairman Kenton County Conservation
District hult_at_hydrologist.com www.hydrologist.com
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Daffodils, Kudzu, and Climate Change Weather or
Not ?

• Is climate change real? (Is there still
  controversy ?)
• Brief history of one data set (Carbon Dioxide)
• Repercussions
• Temperature (soil air water including seasonal)
• Hydrology
• Ecosystems including trees

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Think Global Act Local

• Now that we have ACTED GLOBALY,
• LOCAL (RE)ACTION required
• Different paradigm than we may be used to
• At local level, we cant directly change the
  environmental stress

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Daffodils, Kudzu and Climate Change
Examples Warm winters promote northward
migration of invasive species and disrupt natural
annual cycles of plants and ecosystems
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• Major cause of greenhouse effect
• Measured 1958 Present
• Most important environmental data set ever
  collected (?)
• First result was to that the global atmosphere
  varied systematically on an annual basis
• Demonstrates long-term CO2 increase
• Demonstrated global effect of Forests in
  controlling atmosphere

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• February 8 2007 Nature
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  (IPCC) has served a useful purpose in removing
  the last ground from under the climate-change
  skeptics' feet, leaving them marooned and
  ridiculous
• ( Converts include Citicorp and Duke Energy)

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Wednesday March 28, 2007

• As representative Ed Whitfield, Kentucky
  Republican (lifetime rating from the American
  Conservative Union 90 out of 100) told Mr. Gore,
  I think everyone recognizes as you have said
  and the scientific community agrees that there
  is global warming caused by human activity.

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Global Temperature record, 1850-2007

• Eleven of the twelve warmest years have now
  occurred in the past twelve years

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Impact on Biodiversity of invasive species
Shift in -20C (-4F isocline)
Invasives typically good at migrating and
adapting to change Rare or endangered species
typically less mobile and adaptive
Source Sasek and Strain. 1990. Climatic Change
1631-51
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Plants blooming earlier

• Compared to 1960s (NE US)
• Lilacs 4 days earlier
• Grapes 6 days earlier
• Apples 9 days earlier
• Source Wolfe and others, 2005 in International
  Jornal of Biometeorology 49303-309

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Over-wintering insects

• Average monthly December, January, and February
  temperatures good predictors
• Examples flea beetle, corn earworm

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Impact of climate change on crops

• Some crops may benefit from warmer winters
  (grapes)
• But inadequate chill period may harm others (eg
  apples)

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CO2 concentration affects different plants
differently

• Poison ivy plants grow faster and aremore
  allergenic at increased CO2 concentrations (Mohan
  and others 2006. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 103(24)
  9086-9089)
• Herbicide efficacy (eg Roundup) reduced Ziska
  and others. 1999. Weed Science 47608-615.)

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Examples of Ongoing Research

• USGS climate change program focused in four
  areas
• Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability
• Climate change over decades to centuries
• Changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and
  atmospheric chemistry
• Changes in land cover and in terrestrial and
  aquatic ecosystems

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The major questions driving the assessment
include

• What are the current environmental stresses and
  how are they likely to play out in the future
  without a change in climate or climate
  variability?
• How will a change in climate or climate
  variability affect these environmental stresses?
• How can people cope with climate variability and
  change in ways that help with other environmental
  stresses?
• What knowledge and information do people need to
  better estimate the consequences of climate
  variability and change?

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And So On .
Marc F Hult Daniel Carter Beard Environmental
Center hult_at_hydrologist.com