Future Studies - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Future Studies

Description:

Future Studies today – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:833
Slides: 61
Provided by: hans5560

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Future Studies


1
FUTURE STUDIES TODAY?
  • Marc LUYCKX GHISI
  • Member of the Auroville International Advisory
    Council,
  • Former member of the Forward Studies Unit, EU
  • Vice President of COTRUGLI Business School,
    Zagreb Belgrade

2
FUTURE STUDIES TODAY
  • We are in a crucial moment.
  • The change announced by Tofler (Future Shock,
    1987) and other futurists is happening today.
  • Futurists have an important NEW mission explain
    the actual world transformation to the public.

3
FUTURE STUDIES TODAY
  • This means that futurology and philosophy are in
    the best position for explaining in a
    transdisciplinary way the multiple dimensions of
    the actual transition to
  • Transmodernity
  • Post industrial society
  • Post capitalist society
  • Post patriarchal society

4
CHAPTER 1SHORT DESCRIPTION OF THE TRANSITION
5
P. Drucker Transformation
  • Every few hundred years in Western History there
    occurs a sharp transformation.
  • Within a few short decades, society rearranges
    itself its worldview (paradigm), its basic
    values, its social and political structures, its
    arts, its key institutions.
  • Fifty years later there is a new world.
  • Peter DRUCKER Post Capitalist Society.
    Butterworth Heinemann, 1993, 2001, p.1.

6
WILLIS HARMAN
  • We are living through one of the most
    fundamental shifts in History a change in the
    actual belief structure of Western Society. No
    economics, political or military power can
    compare with the power of a change of mind. By
    deliberately changing their images of reality,
    people are changing the world.
  • Willis HARMAN Stanford Research Institute
    (1997), Founder of the World Business Academy

7
Transition to Transmodern
Death ?
8
KNOWLEDGE SOCIETYFIVE LEVELS OF CHANGE
9
Transformations five levels
  • Humanity is in danger of collective death
  • Knowledge society is the End of the Patriarchal
    values (CCC)
  • Knowledge Society is the end of modernity. It is
    tansmodern. (post secular, flat, tolerant, new
    level of responsibility and consciousness).
  • Knowledge society is also a new economic logic.
  • Knowledge society is potentially a new political
    concept of non violence between States. (like EU)

10
The Iceberg of TRANSMODERNITY
Level 5 Credibility gap of all Institutions is
increasing
dramatically
Level 4 The knowledge society post-capitalist
society (Drucker)
Level 3 End of Modernity REASON Only Truth,
Science, Violence, Pyramids, Control
Level 2 End of Patriarchal myths, sacred and
values
Level 1 Danger of Collective Death
11
LEVEL 1 HUMANITY IS IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE
12
WorldWatch Institute Washington
  • Our global economy is outgrowing the capacity of
    the earth to support it, moving us ever closer to
    decline and possible collapse.
  • We have the technologies needed to build the new
    economy
  • Lester BROWN Plan B 2.0 Norton NY, London
  • 2006. Presentation text on the cover.

13
UNESCO War against nature
  • Koichiro MATSUURA, Director of UNESCO in Paris
    has declared that we must end this war against
    nature, which is in fact a war against ourselves,
    and against the future generations.
  • We must conclude an armistice, a new natural
    pact of co-development with nature. (Le
    Figaro Jan 11, 2007.)

14
WHY?
  • It is a question of Survival for HUMANIY.

15
Level 2 KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY END OF PATRIARCHAL
VALUES
16
From Matrilinear to Patriarchal
  • MATRILINEAR(-3500)
  • Woman Goddess,
  • snake her power
  • SACRED LIFE tree, blood, birth
  • Sexuality Pleasure
  • Power life giving
  • Beauty art Creativity
  • PATRIARCHAL
  • God the Father
  • women infer sin.
  • SACRED Violent DEATH, blood, cross
  • Sex pleasure impure
  • Power to kill
  • Ascetism is better

17
KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY END OF COMMAND AND CONTROL
  • Every LEADER will have to shift his approach, and
    the political structures towards post patriarchal
    values
  • respect for the environment,
  • Importance of human relations
  • Fostering the joy of creation,
  • contact with nature, link with the cosmos,
  • Interiority, spiritual dimension

18
A NEW WOMAN-MAN RELATION
  • In every couple around the world, we see a hidden
    transformation of the relation. Hence... some new
    conflicts!
  • This means that women and men are obliged to
    redefine their roles and behaviours.
  • Few structures are able to help couples in this
    unexplained transition. SILENCE.

19
LEVEL 3 KNWOLEDGE SOCIETY END OF MODERNITY
20
Multi level changes...
  • Structures From pyramids to void circle
  • Status of rational thinking
  • Status of Spiritual aspiration (religion) in
    public.
  • Status of truth real tolerance.
  • Status of Science and tech.
  • Status of political violence beyond war
  • Status of body, intuition, ethics, esthetics...

21
0. Pre-Modern to Modern Pyramid to Pyramid
  • PRE-MODERN
  • MODERN

GOD
REASON
Economist
Clergy
Government
Government
Men
Men
Women
Women
COSMOS object
COSMOS sacred
22
1. From Modern to Transmodern From Pyramid to
void cercle
  • MODERN
  • TRANSMODERN

Men part of COSMOS
Cultures
Centre is empty
23
2. STATUS OF RATIONAL THINKING
  • Modern rational thinking has been a liberation
    struggle against medieval obscurantism.
  • It has become now, like a mental prison.
  • Rationality is loosing its divine status given by
    modernity. And it is only one way to think.
  • Other ways of thinking like intuition, connection
    to the cosmos, gain credibility, because we need
    them, to create knowledge !!

24
3. STATUS OF SPIRITUAL ASPIRATION IN PUBLIC
  • For evident reasons modernity has taken distance
    from religions.
  • But in doing this, it has progressively
    marginalized religions and spiritual aspiration
    as outdated.
  • This negation of such an important human
    dimension is in crisis.
  • We go probably towards distinction but not
    anymore separation.

25
4. STATUS OF TRUTH
  • MODERN
  • Pyramidal
  • Intolerant
  • Rational truth
  • Secular (France)
  • Disenchanted
  • NOT Responsible
  • No conscious of whole
  • TRANSMODERN
  • Round table Hole
  • Radical tolerance
  • Truth existvoid
  • Post secular
  • Re-enchanted
  • Collective responsibility
  • New level of consciousness

26
5. NEW ROLE OF SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY
  • Science Technology had received in modern
    times a divine status, because they were
    rational thus true. Now they have to be at the
    service of our survival in a sustainable future.
  • Science was above ethics, value free ! Now ethics
    is back and citizens ask questions to science.
  • Science was functioning in a offer economy
    (please consume what we invent !).
  • Now science HAS to function in a demand economy
    (please be part of the solution !).

27
5. SCIENCE
  • And science is reinventing itself at full speed.
  • And this happens through hard paradigm conflicts
    (Thomas Kuhn, Harvard)
  • Back to a poetic approach to nature... (Ilya
    Prigogine, Nobel prize 1977).

28
6. STATUS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE
  • Modernity has created the State as zone of
    internal NON-violence inside. But outside the
    borders, citizens are obliged to kill.
  • Transmodernity has invented structures of
    non-violence between States The EU is the first
    success.
  • But European Governments sell the EU as a
    market... They should sell EU as the first
    political avantgarde of the Knowledge society !

29
7. STATUS OF INTUITION, ETHICS, BODY, SACRED,
DEATH...
  • Many things are changing
  • We see that intuition, ethics, esthetics, are
    really becoming important again in the knowledge
    society.
  • The very concept of sacred has transformed more
    in 40 years than in 2000 years!
  • The way we see death and life after death is also
    changing completely...
  • We see a reconnexion of body, mind, soul,
    intelligence...Towards Reenchantment ?

30
CONSEQUENCE POLITICAL CHOICES (I)
  • EU should be presented as the 1 Transmodern
    political project of the XXI century.
  • Politicians should dear to say that we are like
    at the beginning of Renaissance...
  • They should call people to reflect worldwide on
    the new sustainable structures of the future.

31
CONSEQUENCEPOLITICAL CHOICES (II)
  • The main world problems are political
  • World hunger
  • Education
  • Water
  • inequalitiy
  • The money is there. It would cost 10 to 20 of
    what is spent for arms...

32
CONSEQUENCE ECONOMIC CHOICES (I)
  • Politicians and economist should have the courage
    to say that we are not anymore in the industrial
    capitalist period.
  • We are already in the knowledge economy which is
    post capitalist (Drucker).
  • But nobody dears to say the truth to the
    citizens. And they know it .... subconsciously.

33
CONSEQUENCE ECONOMIC CHOICES (II)
  • And this knowldege conomy (Lisbon Strategy of
    the EU 2000-2010), could be oriented towards
    sutainability and social inclusion.
  • We can decide this. A debate is urgent and
    needed.
  • But this presupposes that the economists and
    politicians wake up from the free trade
    industrial nightmare which is unable to lead to a
    sustainable world.

34
THE DINOSAUR SYNDROM !
  • We are in a time of rapid change.
  • It is time to speak out and reflect together like
    in this Congress...
  • Many structures will become dinosaurs, if they
    are unable to transform...
  • Better create new structures without fighting the
    old ones.

35
Policy and anguish
  • Example war on terrorism. Seems to foster more
    anger and terrorism, and clash of
    civilizations. Exactly the opposite result.
  • Like persecution of Christians
  • Are politicians able to confront the changes?
  • What is their mission today?

36
Conclusion
  • Where are you personally? Are you feeling this
    transition?
  • Where are Croatian young business leaders? Which
    paradigm are they in ?
  • Where does Croatia fit in the European
    discussion? Which paradigm?
  • What is the future of Croatia? Transmodern?

 
37
WHAT IS LISBON STRATEGY ?
  • In March 2000, the Head of the 15 States, which
    are Members of the European Union, met in Lisbon
    for one of their official meetings called
     European Council .
  • They decided that  the EU should become the most
    competitive world actor in the Knowledge society
    before 2010, and this in full respect of
    sustainability and social inclusion. 

38
CHAPTER 2WHAT IS KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS?(Level
4! )
39
DEFINITIONS
  • Data what is on the web, unorganised
  • Information is already sorted by  Google .
    Overabundance.
  • Knowledge is digested by human brain. Less
  • Wisdom, Knowledge are rare. Not enough.

40
A NEW WORLD...
  1. New tool of production human brain
  2. New CEO Enabling creativity and sharing, Caring
    for humans new human-centered management
  3. New value creation process adding Knowledge to
    Knowledge.
  4. BEYOND Trade from Free Trade to Free Sharing
  5. New measurements qualitative intangibles

41
A NEW WORLD...
  • New strategy beyond war win-win not win-loose
  • New definition of Progress qualitative
  • Beyond patenting towards Open Source
  • Beyond pyramids towards networks
  • Capitalizing on cultural capital gender capital

42
1. NEW TOOL OF PRODUCTION
  • The tool of production is not anymore machine
    technol. capital ().
  • New tool of production is human brain sharing
    knowledge in Networks in order to create new K.
  • This new tool of production is more important
    than capital and technol. Humans are ABOVE
    machines and Capital.
  • Hence Post capitalist society!

43
2. NEW CEO FUNCTION
  • Old CEO command, control, conquer
  • New CEO
  • Enables the creativity of his human capital
    tool of Production
  • Enables and creates networks around his team.
    Because (S)He cannot control networks!
  • Cares for the intangible assets brand

44
2. HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT
  • Human capital and HR become central because they
    are caring for the tool of production Please
    come back tomorrow!
  • Thus Management shifts 180 towards human
    centeredness more creativity-centred, gender
    culture centred.
  • HR Becomes absolutely central.

45
HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT
  • The EU economy is at least 50 in this new
    knowledge economy. Thus HR is really becoming
    more important everyday.
  • But many enterprises are not understanding the
    change. And keep HR devalued !
  • Most CEOs do not understand... It is too quick!

46
HR AND NEW MANAGEMENT
  • And so the HR managers have a difficult task to
    convince their top managers.
  • Meanwhile people under them push for change,
    because they feel the need.
  • It is important for HR managers to understand
    that their problems are worldwide the same. The
    transformation is too quick!

47
3. NEW VALUE CREATION PROCES
  • INDUSTRIAL SOC.
  • Add value to object
  • From steel to car !
  • Tool is Machine
  • Humans are cost
  • Management is machine-centered
  • Machine is central
  • KNOWLEDGE SOC.
  • Create new K
  • From data, info to K
  • Tool is Human brain in Networks
  • Humans are capital
  • Management is Human-centered
  • Machine is at service

48
4. BEYOND TRADE win-win(I)
  • If I exchange an object against money, I loose
    the object. This is trade I win and I loose.
    Win-Loose logic
  • If I exchange knowledge, I do not loose my
    knowledge. I win and you win. I am not trading
    anymore. I share. This is a win-win logic of
    sharing.

49
4. BEYOND TRADE (II)
  • INDUSTRIAL SOC.
  • Free trade of objects
  • Industrial structure
  • Pyramids
  • Unemployment
  • Pollution
  • Quantitative growth
  • KNOWLEDGE SOC.
  • Free sharing of knowl.
  • Post-industrial-capitalist.
  • Network value creation
  • Self-creation of my job
  • Immaterialization of prod.
  • Qualitative growth

50
A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASUREMENTS
  • Intangible assets is a new concept invented
    by Karl Erik SVEIBY (Sweden)
  • They are becoming more and more important in the
    knowledge society
  • Because the knowledge society is about knowledge
    which is immaterial, intangible and qualitative.

51
5. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASUREMENT INTANGIBLE
ASSETS (I)
  • Intangibles assets
  • Know how,
  • Reputation, Trust in the company,
  • Structure of the company, and Strategy (balanced
    scorecards)
  • Relations with personnel,
  • Relations with clients,

52
5. A NEW SYSTEM OF MEASURE. INTANGIBLE ASSETS
(II)
  • Relation with civil society
  • Relation to environment
  • Relation to our collective Future and
    sustainability
  • But also quality of the Networks

53
5. INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN STOCK MARKETS
  • Stock exchange measurements are still looking at
    financial tangible assets (quantitative) but
    they increasingly look at intangible assets
    (qualitative).
  • Today a company is measured more and more by its
    intangible assets Minimum 50 .
  • Example Mens Wear USA. World Business
    Academy, Spirit in Business.
  • See also Neskey www.neskey.com

54
5. Intangible indicators grow
55
5. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF INTANGIBLE ASSETS (II)
56
6. NEW BUSINESS STRATEGY WIN-WIN
  • Old business strategy is warlike. Battlefield
    images are frequent. Patriarchal values dominate
    win-loose strategies.
  • New business strategy much less violent,
    competition through collaboration is the new
    motto (post patriarchal).
  • Knowledge behaves like love! Shocking idea for
    the industrial capitalist economy.

57
TWO SCENARIOS of Knowledge economy for 2020
  • Scenario 1Humanism
  • Human centered
  • Honest with humans
  • Really Transparent
  • Really ethical
  • Really concerned about the future
  • REALLY SUSTAINABLE
  • Scenario 2 Manipulat.
  • Pseudo humanist
  • Invisibly false
  • False transparency
  • False ethics
  • False concern with Humanitys future
  • NON SUSTAINABLE

58
Good Books
  • Paul H. RAY The cultural creatives How 50
    million people are changing the world. Harmony,
    New York, 2002. www.culturalcreatives.org
  • Peter DRUCKER Post capitalist society, Harper
    Business, New York, 1993.
  • Verna ALLEE The future of knowledge Elsevier
    Science, 2003, USA. www.vernaallee.com
  • David ROONEY (Australia) Handbook on the
    Knowledge economy 2005.

59
Good Books
  • Jeremy RIFKIN The European Dream when Europes
    vision of the future is silently eclipsing the
    American dream Penguin 2004.
  • Ray ANDERSON Mid Course correction 1998.
    www.chelseagreen.com (Interface)
  • World Business Academy www.worldbusiness.org
  • Neskey on intangible measurements
    www.neskey.com
  • PERLAS Nicanor  Shaping Globalization  civil
    Society, Cultural Power, and Threefolding
    nperlas_at_info.com.ph

60
Good Books
  • Marc Luyckx GHISI The Knowledge society a
    breakthrough to genuine sustainability. Editions
    India, Cochin, March 08.
About PowerShow.com