911, Afghanistan and Iraq

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9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq

• Prof. Theo Farrell
• Dept of War Studies
• Kings College London

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Content

• 9/11 and Al Qaeda
• 2001-2002 Afghanistan War
• The Bush Doctrine
• 2003 Iraq War
• The Logic of Prevention

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(No Transcript)
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The bad guys
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Al Qaedas record

• bombing of World Trade Center (1993)
• attempt to destroy 11 Jumbos (1995)
• bombing of US facilities in Riyadh (1995)
  Dhahran (1996), killing 26 and injuring 540
• embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, killing
  224 (1998)
• attack on USS Cole (2000)

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Impact of 9/11
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Blair on 9/11 (March 2004)

• September 11 was for me a revelation
• If the 20th century scripted our
• conventional way of thinking, the 21st
• century is unconventional in almost
• every respect. This is true also of our
• security.

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Terrorism and public fear

• involuntary exposure
• - cars kill more than terrorists
• - terrorism is beyond our control
• unfamiliarity
• - Malaria (kills 1m each year) v Ebola (killed
  891 since 1976)
• Sept01 anthrax attack on US closes down DC but
  only kills 5

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The New Terrorists

• Smarter
• More agile
• More lethal

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Al Qaedas strategy

• Bleeding wars
• Building safe havens and franchises (AQI, AQIM,
  Hamas)
• Raids on the West
• Bruce Riedel, The Search for Al Qaeda

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GWOT the opening campaign

• War on Terrorism Bush address to nation on 11
  Sept.
• Rumsfeld orders JCS to draw up military options
  on 12 Sept.
• CENTCOM plan approved 2 Oct and Op Enduring
  Freedom begins 7 Oct

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CENTCOM uses the CIA plan

• JCS plans (13-15 Sept)
• (a) cruise missile attacks
• (b) longer bombing campaign
• (c) large-scale invasion
• CIA plan US airpower, SOF teams local Afghan
  allies

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Op Enduring Freedom

• Coalition air offensive (7-19 Oct)
• US/UK supported NA offensive in North (late
  OctNov 2001)
• US/UK-led land offensive in South (Dec 2001July
  2002)

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Bush Doctrine

• Terrorists WMD increase the risks of inaction
• To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our
  adversaries, the United States will, if
  necessary, act preemptively in exercising our
  inherent right of self-defense.
• Nat Security Strategy, 20 Sept 2002

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Neocon agenda

• Moral certitude
• Military primacy
• Middle East democracy

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Iraq the road to war

• Post 9/11 worse-case analysis gained a new
  credibility
• Bush orders war plans (21 Nov 2001)
• Framing the threat Axis of Evil (2002 State of
  the Union)
• Selling the threat Iraq, Al Qaeda and WMD

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Iraq countdown to war

• Aug 2002 Bush authorises war plans
• 10 Oct 2002 Congress authorises war, 296-133
  77-23
• 8 Nov 2002 UNSC passes res. 1441
• 20 March 2003 OIF begins

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Twenty days later
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Rumsfeld Doctrine

• CONOPS Shock and awe replaces overwhelming
  force
• Army lite invasion force 170,000 (v. 540,000
  in 1991 GW)
• Victory for military transformation

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Losing the peace

• Lack of phase IV planning
• ORHA CPA poorly resourced and staffed
• US forces too few and unprepared for COIN
• American mistakes

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American mistakes

• De-baathification
• Disbanding the Iraqi Army
• Failure to maintain order
• Pushing too fast on political and economic reform

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The logic of prevention

• Preventive war thinking in early Cold War America
• Clinton administration and North Korea
• Israeli raids on nuclear facilities in Iraq
  (1981) and Syria (Sept 2007)