Using official household surveys to build policy oriented indicators of democratic governance: Lesso

1
Using official household surveys to build
policy-oriented indicators of democratic
governance Lessons drawn from Africa and Latin
America By Javier Herrera, Mireille
Razafindrakoto, and François Roubaud (IRD - DIAL)
Measuring and Assessing Democratic
Governance InWEnt / OGC-UNDP Oslo, 28-29
August, 2007
2
PRESENTATION SCHEME

• I. The approach
• What can be expected from household surveys to
  measure Governance and democracy?
• Why, What, How?
• The global lessons
• II. Selected examples of results
• The Francophone Africa experience
• The Andean Countries experience
• Conclusion

DIAL Développement, Institutions et Analyse de
Long terme
3
Motivations

• Main changes in development strategies and
  analysis
• I- Economic policies The political economy
  matters!
• Good Governance and Democracy fundamental
  determining factors for the success of economic
  policies and development in general.
• They do not play only an instrumental role, they
  are aspects which in themselves contribute to the
  well-being of a population and development per
  se.
• Key-words Accountability, Ownership, Empowerment,
  Participatory Processes (PRSP, HIPC Initiatives)
• II- Research Understanding the interactions
• For the definition of adequate development
  strategies (to reduce poverty)--gt need to achieve
  a better understanding of the interaction between
  four dimensions
• Growth
• Distribution
• The quality of institutions (Governance)
• The political system (Democracy)

DIAL Développement, Institutions et Analyse de
Long terme
4
Motivations ()

• New statistical challenges
• Macro level Development of International
  Databases (some examples)
• Indexes of perception of corruption (TI)
• Indexes of political liberties and civil rights
  (Freedom House)
• Ethno-linguistic fractionalization
• Quality of institutions/policies (CPIA, Kaufman
  et al. Governance Database WB)

DIAL Développement, Institutions et Analyse de
Long terme
5
Motivations ()

• New statistical challenges
• Micro level Qualitative approaches
• Participatory assessments (PA)
• Focus Group, semi structured interviews, etc.
• Desk studies
• The purpose of our work
• To explore the potential of household surveys as
  a statistical tool for drawing up and monitoring
  the indicators of governance and democracy in
  developing countries.
• Developing democratic governance indicators
• respect governance principles (ownership,
  participation, transparency, etc.)
• consider a broad definition governance
  (multi-dimensionality)
• policy oriented
• Express the voice of disadvantaged groups (Poor,
  Ethnic Minorities, etc.)

DIAL Développement, Institutions et Analyse de
Long terme
6
The surveys

• Governance and Democracy Modules grafted onto
  official household survey conducted by National
  Statistical Institutes
• Survey support (stratified multi-stage sample
  surveys area/HH) for the Modules (Individuals)
• In Africa 1-2-3 Survey (LFS, informal sector,
  consumption and poverty)
• - Madagascar 1995-2007, Capital urban areas
  (2000, 2001) rural entreprises surveys (time
  series)
• - West Africa 2001/2003, in 7 WAEMU capital
  cities (Abidjan, Bamako, Cotonou, Dakar, Lome,
  Ouagadougou and Niamey) National surveys
  (poverty monitoring) in 2006-2007 (Benin,Mali)
• 35 594 persons interviewed
• In Latin America Standard National Household
  surveys (ECH, Bolivia SIE-ENEMDU, Ecuador
  ENAHO, Peru). National and regional inference for
  Peru and Ecuador.
• Peru 2002-2007, national level (18 000 HH
  sample in 2002 continuous survey from 2003 to
  date).
• Ecuador 2004, (20 000 HH)

7
Survey characteristics in Africa
8
Survey characteristics in Latin America
9

• The global lessons
• Advantages of household sample surveys
• Transparency of measurement procedures
• Representativness, precision, robustness
• Quantification
• Comparability of indicators over time.
• In-depth policy-oriented analyses
• More appropriate than international indicators
  and aggregates (complementary approach).
• Both objective (behaviour, actual experiences)
  and subjective information (perception,
  satisfaction)
• Monitoring and relating the two fundamental
  dimensions of these phenomena.
• Socio-economic disaggregation
• These two dimensions can be combined with
  traditional variables related to the
  socio-economic characteristics of individuals and
  households (gender, income/poverty, occupation,
  ethnic group, etc.).
• Possibility to disaggregate information between
  different population categories (gender, poverty,
  ethnic groups, discriminated people, etc.
• Spatial disaggregation (infra-national
  representativness Peru, Ecuador)

10
RobustnessProbabilistic surveys allows a
quantitative assessement of indicators precision
(also relevant for group and intertemporal
comparaisons)
In your opinion, corruption since last year?
Source our estimation based on ENAHO july
2003-june 2004, INEI, Peru.
11
Non responseThere is (often) more willingness
to answer questions on governance and democray
than usual economic questions
Non response rate to selected questions
Sources 1-2-3 Surveys, Phase 1, Governance and
Democracy module, 2001/2003, National Statistical
Institutes, AFRISTAT, DIAL, authors calculations.
12
Non responseThere is (often) more willingness
to answer questions on governance and democracy
than usual economic questions
Rates of non-response to the basic survey and the
Governance and Democracy modules in Peru
Source Our estimate based on ENAHO May
2003-March 2004
13

• Strong points / Basic principles

Supply side
Demand side
Interactions
14
The mirror survey

• To round out the collection of surveys on
  Governance and Democracy in seven West African
  capitals and in Madagascar (Antananarivo),
• an additional survey to get the opinions of a
  certain number of Southern and Northern experts
  (researchers, development practitioners,
  decision-makers, senior civil servants,
  politicians, etc.).
• The aim --gt to compare answers from the
  population surveyed in each country with the
  specialists point of view.

15

• The mirror survey ()
• Two sets of questions
• - what the experts think the respondents answered
  on average.
• - their own answer to these same questions
  (What is your personal opinion?)
• Questions 
• - Specificity of the answers of the population /
  experts, specialists
• Knowledge of Northern or Southern experts on
  what happens and on peoples thinking in the
  South
• Relevance and reliability of indicators based
  only on appreciation of panel of experts
• Sample size 350 experts (45 per country in
  average)

DIAL Développement, Institutions et Analyse de
Long terme
16
The need for complementary approaches /
indicators

• How far can we trust the experts opinion on
  corruption?
• Discrepancies between real extent of corruption
  and experts perception in Francophone Africa
• ? On the level of corruption / To what extent
  corruption acceptable
• ? On the relative positions (rank) of the
  different countries

Sources General Household Survey (35,594 persons
interviewed 4500 for each coutry in average)
Expert panel survey or Mirror survey (246 persons
surveyed 30 experts for each country in
average). In Madagascar, results are drawn from
the 2003 survey. Authors calculations.
17
Selected analytical findings from the surveys

• GOVERNANCE
• Corruption a major problem
• Which population categories are more affected?
• How to monitor anti-corruption policies?
• The need for complementary approaches
• DEMOCRACY
• Strong support for democracy
• Measuring the gap between aspirations and
  effectiveness as regards democratic principles
• THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS
• The  need for the state  of the poor
• The political class and the working of democracy
• Better public institutions to consolidate
  democracy

18
GOVERNANCE

• Corruption a major issue
• Main problem stressed by more than 90
  of the population

In your opinion, what problems does the civil
service have?
19
Governance problems are among the main issues in
Peru
20
Peru Confidence in the institutions
21
GOVERNANCE

• An improvement of civil servant wages
• or an active anti-corruption policy
• ? a sharp drop in the incidence of corruption
• Civil servant wages and corruption levels in
  Madagascar 1995-2006

Sources Razafindrakoto, Roubaud (2002) and
1-2-3 Survey 2002-2006, INSTAT, DIAL, authors
calculations.
22

• Monitoring corruption (from 2002/2003 to
  2004)
• Incidence (percentage of households victims) has
  decreased
• Total amount paid has decreased in real terms
• The poor as well as the rich had benefited from
  this improvement

Incidence and cost of corruption (2002/2003 and
2004 in Antananarivo)
Source Enquête 1-2-3, modules qualitatifs, 2003
et 2004, INSTAT, authors calculations.
23
Which population categories are more affected by
corruption?
Incidence and cost of corruption in Niamey
Sources 1-2-3 Surveys, PARSTAT, National
Statistical Institute, AFRISTAT, DIAL, 2001-2003,
authors calculations. ? As regards incidence,
Poorest quartile (in terms of income) is less
victim of corruption ? But in fact, the poor
are more affected The annual total amount
paid by households (victims) ? 16 of the
income of the poorest quartile of the
population ? 1 of the income of the wealthiest
quartile
24
Ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of local governance
Do you agree that the decentralization process
has implied?
Source authors calculations based on ENAHO
2002, 2003-2004 Peru
25
DEMOCRACY

• Strong / massive support for democracy All the
  more stressed in non-democratic countries ?
  (Togo, Côte dIvoire)

More or less in favour of democracy
Strongly in favour of democracy
26
DEMOCRACY

• Authoritarian regime ? clearly identified
• Even if progress is needed in every country

Perception on the working of democracy in each
country
Sources  Enquêtes 1-2-3, module Démocratie,
2001/2003, Instituts Nationaux de la Statistique,
AFRISTAT, DIAL authors calculations.
27
Discriminated people have strongest preferences
for democratic regimes (Peru)
Support to a democratic government
Source authors calculations based on ENAHO
2003-2004 Peru
28
Education is important for constructing a
democracy
How important do you consider democracy?
Ecuador
Peru
Source authors calculations based on
SIE-ENEMDU-2004, módulo Democracia, INEC,
Ecuador ENAHO 2003-2004 Peru
29
Poverty and electoral turnouts
Source authors calculations based on
SIE-ENEMDU-2004, módulo Democracia, INEC,
Ecuador ENAHO 2003-2004 Peru
30
In Peru Support for democratic regimes weakens
as corruption perception increases and democracy
performance worsens
Source Our estimation based on ENAHO may
2003-december 2004.
31

• Conclusion
• Methodological issues
• Indicators should be developed to evaluate the
  efficiency of government, democracy and the
  degree of popular support for policies.
• Even though it is still only in an exploratory
  stage, the experience gained in grafting modules
  on HH surveys (1-2-3 surveys, classical ones)
  shows that these challenges can be met and
• In many instances, indicators of governance and
  democracy are easier to obtain than classical
  indicators (poverty incidence etc.)
• Governance indicators are subject to a greater
  (in many cases) or at least to an equivalent
  social demand than traditional economic
  indicators.
• Perspectives
• Statistical to create time series to
  evaluate/consolidate the robustness of the
  indicators and to monitor over time governance
  and democracy issues
• Political to institutionalise the monitoring
  procedures and processes within the national
  statistical system

DIAL Développement, Institutions et Analyse de
Long terme
32

• Conclusion ()
• Next steps
• Replication of the survey
• Consolidating in the same countries for example
  in Africa, 2nd round in 2006
• Opening new geographical fronts Asia, Middle
  East, etc.
• Integration in official/global initiatives
• Inclusion in the Monitoring Evaluation System
  of national development strategies (PRSP, etc.)
• National strategies for the development of
  statistics (PARIS21), international
  recomendations (U.N.)

DIAL Développement, Institutions et Analyse de
Long terme
33
END http//www.dial.prd.fr