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Global Warming and Demographic Aging: its Effects on Global Prosperity

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IV Congreso Internacional de la Familia. Universidad de la Sabana. Bogot , Colombia. April 25-26, 2008. Global Warming. A Study of Air and Water Pollution ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Warming and Demographic Aging: its Effects on Global Prosperity


1
Global Warming and Demographic Aging its Effects
on Global Prosperity
  • Dr. Maria Sophia Aguirre
  • Department of Business and Economics
  • The Catholic University of America
  • IV Congreso Internacional de la Familia
  • Universidad de la Sabana
  • Bogotá, Colombia
  • April 25-26, 2008

2
Global WarmingA Study of Air and Water Pollution
  • Neo-Malthusian theory
  • population growth destroys the environment.
  • people threaten the balance of biodiversity and
    ecology of the earths resources.
  • One way is through the pollution of air and
    water.
  • Free-market proponents argue that a market-based
    approach will encourage the market to help the
    environment through technological innovation.
  • People as Problem Solvers argue that current
    problems are the result of poor management from
    government, believe in win-win free market
    response.

3
Human development Index, 2008
4
Regional Contributions to Carbon Emissions
100
D3- Least Developed Countries
80
D2-Developing Countries
60
India
40
China
Former Soviet Union
20
D1-Developed Countries
Japan
EU
0
USA
Cumulative Emissions 1751-2004
Flux in 2004
Flux Growth in 2004
Population in 2004
Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon
Budget, Global Carbon Project. Nov. 2007.
5
Global Warming and Efficiency
  • Eradicating pollution is not the issue, it is
    making polluting efficient
  • Advancement in technology through human integrity
    and innovation allow for environmental efficiency
  • Such development allows for more environmental
    protection measures to be created without harming
    the market
  • Innovation and technological advancements allow
    for pollution control, not population control
    policies under the neo-Malthusian theory

6
The Population Problem
  • The world population is increasing at a rapid
    rate, particularly within developing countries
  • Many policy makers and theorists worry that soon
    there could be too many people for the amount of
    resources available
  • Many international organizations and developing
    countries have implemented population control
    policies to try and slow this growth before it
    puts a burden on the worlds natural resources
  • Many of these policies are based upon
    Neo-Malthusian theory
  • Population control policies have jeopardized real
    long-term economic growth, placing a heavy burden
    on the economic welfare of these societies.

7
Neo-Malthusian Theory
  • Two main sub-categories
  • The Limited Resource Perspective takes the
    classic Malthusian argument and applies it to all
    natural resources
  • The Socio-Biological Perspective almost acting
    as a sub-set of the former, treats the
    environment as a limited resource and regards
    people as a threat to the biodiversity and
    ecological balance of that resource.

8
The Population Control Argument
  • First rapid growth in population means the
    spread of poverty and aggravates conditions such
    as as poor health, malnutrition, illiteracy, and
    unemployment (Bucharest, 1974)
  • Second population threatens government stability
    in developing countries, and encourages
    confrontation between developed and developing
    countries (Memorandum 200)
  • Third it pushes future generations to scarcity,
    and an unsustainable environment carrying
    capacity (Rio, 1992)
  • Fourth it sees population growth to be
    symptomatic of the larger problem of women's
    oppressionthe more children a woman has, the
    less opportunity she has for her own
    self-actualization and development (Cairo, 1994
    and Beijing, 1995)

9
Expenditure on Grant-Financed Development
Activities of the United Nations System by
Sector (Percentage of Total)
10
Aging Population The Case of China
  • No debate over if or when an aging population
    will manifest itself by 2015 the labor supply
    will begin to shrink and by 2035 China will have
    a reversed age pyramid.
  • From 2000 to 2025, people above 65 will triple
    while youngsters under 15 will increase by only
    6.
  • The dependency ratio (defined as the percentage
    of the population aged 65 over the percentage of
    the population aged 15-64) will increase from an
    average of 50 in 1995, to an average of 85-90
    by the year 2050.
  • Today in China only 44.9 of the urban employees
    and 85.4 of the retirees covered.

11
Chinas Population Distribution, 2007
Source World Factbook, 2008
12
Chinas Population Distribution(year 2050)
13
Colombias Population Distribution, 2007
Colombia. CIA World Factbook, 2008
14
Speed of Population Aging Number of years for
of population aged 65 and over to rise from 7 to
14
Source US Census Bureau, 2000
15
Aging Trap
  • Social security system funding the family cannot
    support the elderly
  • Competition between the younger and older people
  • Early retirement
  • To provide for the economic needs of the elderly,
    there is a reduction of funding allocated to
    training new generations
  • The transmission of cultural, scientific,
    technical, artistic, moral, and religious goods
    is endangered "moroseness results. Add to
    this immigration.
  • Saving rates are affected by a society's age
    structure, mirroring the change in an
    individual's saving rate over the life cycle.

16
Conclusion
  • Neo-Malthusian application to global warming is
    seriously flawed according to data on emissions
    and pollution rates.
  • Policy reactions based in neo-Malthusian theory
    will be equally compromising and possibly
    damaging.
  • Pollution is not a matter of preventing but
    regulating efficiently through the free-market.
  • On Population, the Neo-Malthusian approach is
    also seriously flawed on many levels and policy
    actions based on such assumptions are inefficient
    and damage real sustainable development. They
    lead to the again population trap of a one child
    policy.

17
Conclusion
  • The misplaced focus on population size instead of
    real economic needs of the population have come
    at the sacrifice of human capital, particularly
    in developing nations.
  • Millions of people lack access to safe water,
    sanitation, education, medical care and
    infrastructure to meet needs.
  • Results in an inefficient use of resources.
  • This is both inefficient and damaging to real
    long-term economic growth thus rendering this
    process fruitless.
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