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EGOWS 2008 The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast Demonstration Project

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Beijing 08. WMO WWRP FDP. Implement ... Beijing 08. To make probability of flash floods start with the rain already on the ground... Beijing 08 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: EGOWS 2008 The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast Demonstration Project


1
EGOWS 2008The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast
Demonstration Project
John BallyCAWCR
2
Beijing 08
  • WMO gtgt WWRP gtgt FDP
  • Implement nowcasting science and systems for the
    Olympics
  • Provide an enhanced weather service
  • Technology transfer and training
  • Quantify the benefits

3
Beijing 08
  • Daily probability of rainfall in Beijing from
    August 1 to September 30

4
Beijing 08
  • Vulnerabilities

5
Beijing 08
  • Enhanced data collection.....

6
Beijing 08
  • Many systems will be in Beijing...

BJANC (BMBNCAR) CARDS (MSC) GRAPES-SWIFT (CMA)
MAPLE (McGill WDT), NIWOT (NCAR) STEPS
(CAWCR) SWIRLS (HKO) TIFS (CAWCR)
Real Time Verification (CAWCR) Socio Economic
Impacts Assessment (BMB)
7
Beijing 08
  • Many Systems will be in Beijing.....

8
Beijing 08
  • How will we use so many systems?

9
Beijing 08
  • Which system is best ?
  • Real Time Forecast Verification
  • every 6 minutes

10
Beijing 08
  • Web Page display for forecasters

11
Beijing 08
  • Concentrate on some big risks.

12
Beijing 08
  • To make probability of flash floods start with
    the rain already on the ground...

13
Beijing 08
  • Look at the STEPS forecast...

14
Beijing 08
  • And any other good forecasts you can get ... this
    ones from the Hong Kong SWIRLS system

15
Beijing 08
  • And do the stats on the ensemble to get the
    probability of hitting a threshold, given the obs
    rain..

..... Export the threat polygons to VIPS..
16
Beijing 08
  • Rainstorm Warning Products issued by Chinese
    forecasters using realtime FDP information

17
Beijing 08
  • Start with the TIFS interface. single radar,
    single track-set TS Warning generation.....

18
Thunderstorm strike probability
Histogram of storm detections wrt forecast
(normalized speed and direction). after Dance,
Ebert, Scurrah
19
Mathematics
PDF that thunderstorm centre is over a point,
based on Gaussian distribution in polar
coordinates.
  • where (x, ? is a point in polar coordinates, t
    is forecast time, V is speed, sv is speed
    standard deviation, s ? direction standard
    deviation. after Dance, Ebert, Scurrah


20
Strike probability field (with contours) for
storm over 1 hour (black 1, white 0)
21
Beijing 08
  • Ensemble strike probability calculated in TIFS...
    Automated and Manual versions.....

..... Export the threat polygons to VIPS..
22
Beijing 08
  • But not before the expert forecaster adjusts the
    nowcast....

23
Beijing 08
  • During the adjustment ....

24
Beijing 08
  • After adjustment ....

25
Beijing 08
  • Thunderstorm and lightning threat products
    issued by Chinese forecasters using realtime FDP
    information
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