Outlook for the Natural Gas Industry

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Pandemic Flu Update
Gary W. GardnerAmerican Gas AssociationOperatin
g Section Fall Committee MeetingsOctober 9,
2006
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Agenda
Current World Status Government Initiative
s
Industry Preparation
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Current World Status

• Pandemic Threat September 2006
• No evidence of HPAI H5N1 avian influenza in the
  Americas
  
• Still no evidence of human-to-human transmission
• 251 human cases and 147 (59) deaths since 2003
  (globally)
  
• World Health Organization
• Risk remains high despite public fatigue with
  the issue
  
• New outbreaks noted in Cambodia, Thailand, and
  Indonesia
  
• Imperative to maintain aggressive sampling and
  planning

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What Is The Difference?

• Annual Flu
• Occurs every winter
• 500k-1 million deaths
• Deaths in risk populations
• Vaccination available (?) and effective

Pandemic Flu Occurs 3 times/century 50-1
00 million deaths (1918) Larger risk population
Vaccination not available at outset months later
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A 1918 Pandemic Today
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Government Initiatives

• Stop, slow, or limit the spread of a pandemic to
  the U.S.
  
• Limit the domestic spread of a pandemic, and
  mitigate disease, suffering, and death
  
• Sustain infrastructure and mitigate impactto the
  economy and society

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Potential Weapons in the Fight

• Vaccines and antivirals
• Transmission interventions
• Social distancing

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What Does History Teach Us?
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Philadelphia Parade - September 28, 1918
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Mayor closes theaters, moving picture shows,
schools, pool halls, Sunday schools, cabarets,
lodges, societies, public funerals, open air
meetings, dance halls and conventions until
further notice
Closing order withdrawn
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Conclusions from 1918

• Swift, agile, decisive, and coordinated
  action based on accurate information and advanced
  preparedness planning, before the appearance of
  influenza in the local area, is critical.

Howard Markel, MD, PhDDefense Threat Reduction
Agency Report, January 2006

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National Infrastructure Advisory CouncilPandemic
Prioritization Study Group

• Provide recommendations on critical
  infrastructure (CI) prioritization in the event
  of pandemic
  
• Assumptions
• A severe pandemic can significantly disrupt the
  CI
  
• Medical countermeasures can protect CI but
  supplies are limited
  
• Defining priorities can lead to optimal use of
  limited resources and best preserve societal
  function

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Pandemic Prioritization Study GroupSpecific
Tasks

• Establish criteria/principles for prioritization
  
  
• Identify/define priority critical services
• Identify critical employee groups
• Recommend communication strategies
• Identify principles for effective implementation
  by DHS and HHS
  
• WILDCARD state local approach

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Public Health Response Challenges

• CNN Effect
• Communications
• Authority ambiguity (Whos in charge?)
• Number of responders (convergence)
• Poor use of special resources

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Industry Preparation

• Business Continuity Planning Preparation
• Oil Natural Gas Sector Coordinating Council
  Planning, Preparation Response Reference Guide
  
• Working with federal/state/local government and
  health officials
  
• AGA Pandemic Point of Contact Group

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Key Questions for Utilities

• How will you maintain operations when 10-25 of
  theworkforce falls ill at one time?
  
• How will you cope when your suppliers
  experiencethe same absentee rates?
  
• How will you communicate and interact with
  employees, customers, government, media, and
  stakeholders?
  
• How can existing HR, workforce planning, and
  travelpolicies be adapted to control the
  spread?
  
• How will you handle field service calls to homes
  andbusinesses?
  
• What regulatory waivers need to be pursued right
  now?

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Oil and Natural Gas Sector Coordinating
CouncilPlanning, Preparation Response
Reference Guide

• Planning / Preparedness / Response Phases
• Planning Assumptions
• - Timing is uncertain
• - Once human-to-human, will spread very rapidly
• - Pandemic could last for 6 months strike in 2
  waves
  
• - Possibly 25 initially very ill for up to a
  week
  
• - 35 absentee rate healthy stay home with
  family
  
• - Not enough antiviral or vaccines will be
  available
  
• - Schools and businesses closed

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Oil and Natural Gas Sector Coordinating
CouncilPlanning, Preparation Response
Reference Guide

• Action Elements
• - Establish roles and responsibilities
• - Prioritize functions and processes
• - Identify essential/critical workers
• - Communicate, monitor, and coordinate
• - Employee AND employee family well-being
  highest priority

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Global Survey on Pandemic Planning

• Electronic survey completed May 2006
• 553 companies participated worldwide
• 76 US 15 European 5 Asia/Pacific 3
  Canadian
  
• Interviewed heads of 4 corporate functions
• Human Resources
• Business Continuity
• Risk Management
• Environment, Health Safety

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Global Survey on Pandemic Planning - Findings

• Assumptions in plans concerning absenteeism
• Employees with flu 97
• Family members with flu requiring care 95
• Quarantine by public officials 80
• Fear of contracting flu from others 80
• Closing of schools 78
• Limits on public/private transportation 62

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Global Survey on Pandemic Planning - Findings
Measures included in plans Enhance capabilities
to work 72from home or satellite
facility Actively encourage employees who 79
do not feel well to stay home
Antibacterial cleansers 78
Stockpile antiretroviral drugs 24
Restrict travel 80
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Global Survey on Pandemic Planning - Findings

• Larger multinational companies are well along in
  the planning process
  
• Critical industries are better prepared smaller
  companies unprepared and at risk
  
• Asia/Pacific and Europe are better prepared than
  U.S.
  
• Possibly unrealistic assumptions about virtual
  business environment backup
  

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• Sometimes you really dont know what you
  dont know. Dealing with new and emerging
  infections is a very humbling experience. We
  should not pretend to know what will happen.
  Will it be severe or mild? Which age groups will
  be most affected? We just dont know.
• Dr. Margaret Chan, World Health Organization

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Thank You