Decadal survey and SWOT hydrologic science and applications questions

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• Decadal survey and SWOT hydrologic science and
  applications questions 

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering University of Washington
SWOT Hydrology Ohio State University September15,
2008
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SWOT science and applications questions

• Water Cycle What is the spatial and temporal
  variability in the world's terrestrial surface
  water storage and discharge.  How can we predict
  these variations more accurately?
• Floodplains Wetlands How much water is stored
  on a floodplain and subsequently exchanged with
  its main channel? How much carbon is potentially
  released from inundated areas?
• Society What are the policy implications that
  freely available water storage data would have
  for water management? Can health issues related
  to waterborne diseases be predicted through
  better mappings?

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Outline

• 1) Some thoughts on the Decadal Review, and
  selection criteria
• 2) UN Millennium development goals, and the
  World Water Assessment process
• 3) GEO and GEOSS
• 4) The state of global in situ hydrologic
  networks, and prospects for global hydrologic
  observations
• 5) Implications of SWOT for global water
  problems transboundary rivers as an example

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Decadal Review

• Evaluation of RFIs on the basis of both
  scientific and societal benefits (with equal
  weightings)
• Water-related missions (SMAP, SWOT, SCLP) all
  score well in both categories
• Societal benefits (not entirely interchangeable
  with applications) generally not developed as
  well as science

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UN Millennium Development Goals (2000)

• Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education
• Goal 3 Promote gender equality and empower women
• Goal 4 Reduce child mortality
• Goal 5 Improve maternal health
• Goal 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other
  diseases
• Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability
• Goal 8 Develop a global partnership for
  development

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World Water Assessment Program (WWAP) provides
the link between water and the Millennium
Development Goals

• Mission develop the tools and skills needed
  to achieve a better understanding of those basic
  processes, management practices and policies that
  will help improve the supply and quality of
  global freshwater resources.
• Goals
• assess the state of the world's freshwater
  resources and ecosystems
• identify critical issues and problems
• develop indicators and measure progress towards
  achieving sustainable use of water resources
• help countries develop their own assessment
  capacity
• document lessons learned and publish a World
  Water Development Report (WWDR) at regular
  intervals.

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Group on Earth Observations (GEO)

• GEO derives from the 2002 World Summit on
  Sustainable Development and by the G8 (Group of
  Eight) leading industrialized countries.
• Voluntary partnership of governments and
  international organizations -- as of July 2008,
  GEOs Members include 74 Governments and the
  European Commission, in addition to 51
  intergovernmental, international, and regional
  organizations that are recognized as
  Participating Organizations
• GEOSS (Global Earth Observing System of Systems)
  has a 10-Year Implementation Plan for 2005 to
  2015. Vision statement for GEOSS, includes nine
  Societal Benefit Areas disasters, health,
  energy, climate, water, weather, ecosystems,
  agriculture and biodiversity. (Note similarity to
  Decadal Review panels)

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GEOSS Implementation Plan (2005)

• Water-related issues addressed by GEOSS will
  include precipitation soil moisture
  streamflow lake and reservoir levels snow
  cover glaciers and ice evaporation and
  transpiration groundwater and water quality and
  water use.
• GEOSS implementation will improve integrated
  water resource management by bringing together
  observations, prediction, and decision support
  systems and by creating better linkages to
  climate and other data.

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Global hydrologic networks in decline? Data
sharing remains a critical issue
UK and SADC
SADC
Data sharing
UK
Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Visual courtesy Vladimir Smakhtin, WRMI
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Global river discharge errors
Discharge fractional error sQ/Q
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Comments on the tractability of the hydrologic
data problem

• It may well not be resolvable with in situ
  observations too many countries, interests,
  economic and other motivations
• Lack of a global hydrologic prediction strategy
  (contrast with weather!) is a key determining
  factor
• The DR, and other, missions can represent a first
  step towards a global strategy, which cannot be
  accomplished with in situ obs alone
• Articulating the role of in situ obs (more
  specific (and accurate) local information
  calibration of satellite derived variables, etc)

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The role of SWOT in trans-boundary water
management

• Networks are especially sparse in developing
  countries
• Knowledge of reservoir storage in trans-boundary
  rivers is often restricted, and has critical
  implications for water management in downstream
  countries
• Free and open (and timely) exchange of SWOT data
  will be a critical need

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Basins at Risk

• A basin is at risk if changes in the physical
  setting (e.g. large infrastructure project,
  prolonged drought) are outside of the bounds of
  current agreements. The following basins do not
  have agreements and are not forming them
• Africa
• Incomati, Kunene, Lake Chad, Limpopo, Okavango,
  Orange, Senegal, Zambezi
• Asia
• Ganges-Brahmaputra, Han, Kura-Araks, Mekong, Ob,
  Salween, Tumen,
• Central America
• Lempa
• South America
• La Plata
• Basins at risk that are talking Aral Sea,
  Jordan, Nile, Tigris-Euphrates

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Basins at Risk
Potential for conflict but no negotiation Potentia
l for conflict but some negotiation No/low
potential for conflict
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Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna

• Major Issues
• Need to improve flood data communication across
  borders
• Problems of sharing dry season flow between India
  and Bangladesh
• Need to involve China in discussions before China
  builds large diversions and dams on the Tsangpo
  (Brahmaputra)
• General lack of knowledge about the GBM system

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Aral Sea

• Major Issues
• No functioning basin management agreements
• Need to coordinate winter and summer water uses
• Monitoring of remote mountain lakes
• Large dams planned, so need for basin cooperation
  is urgent

Total basin outflow 2980.72 cms
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Zambezi

• Major Issues
• Political instability (esp, in Zimbabwe) prevents
  action on transboundary water issues
• Flooding downstream in Mozambique due to poor
  data lead time
• Large inter-basin water transfers envisioned
  need proper data and strong water agreements for
  that to not to be contentious
• ButSouthern Africa Development Community (SADC)
  provides a good starting point

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Summary

• Key role of societal benefits in DR selection
  criteria area needs better development by SWOT
  (and other hydrology missions)
• SWOT potentially plays a key role in WWAP and
  GEO need stronger links
• Global hydrologic observation problem is
  fundamentally intractable without satellite
  observations need for a global hydrologic
  prediction strategy
• Better understanding potential role of SWOT in
  transboundary rivers is a starting point