A New Direction: $11.8 Billion

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Global Security and Afghanistan The Crossroad
of Civilizations and Invasions Ambassador Said
T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise
April 2008
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Overview

• NATO Summit in Bucharest
• Land and People
• Security Situation
• Escalation of Violence
• Who are the Taliban?
• Profile of a Suicide Bomber
• Our Strategy
• Building Afghanistans Security Forces
• Problem of Narcotics
• Regional Instability
• A Dangerous Neighborhood
• Global Security
• International Cooperation
• Role of NATO
• Challenges of Coordination
• Public Opinion in Afghanistan

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Land and People

• Area 647,500 sq. km. (France)
• Population 26 mil
• 5000 years of history
• Strategic location
• Crossroad of civilizations and invasions
• Mosaic of cultures
• Original Front The Cold War and the War on Terror

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Security Situation
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Escalation of Terrorist Attacks
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Escalation of Terrorist Attacks
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Escalation of Violence in 2007

• 160 suicide attacks
• 30 increase in terrorist attacks Civilians
  are the prime target
• 566 security incidents per month vs. 425 average
  in 2006
• 8,000 conflict related deaths (7500 civilians)
• Attacks on Schools 133
• 384 of the total 721 schools in the southern
  provinces are closed
• Attacks on Soft Targets
• Over 130 attacks against humanitarian programs,
  40 aid workers killed, 89 abducted
• Sophisticated and more lethal attacks
• IEDs, VBIEDs, EFPs
• Al Qaeda influence and modus operandi

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5, 700 civilian victims of conflict
Source Cordesman, Anthony. The
Afghan-Pakistan WarA Status Report CSIS
12.04.2007
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Where are we?

• Tipping point or Turning point?
• Historic accomplishments risk being overshadowed
• 6 years after the start of Operation Enduring
  Freedom
• Afghans do not feel safe
• Lack resources to provide protection to our
  people
• Shortage of national and international troops,
  equipment and resources
• Limited respect for Afghan priorities and plans
• Lack of coordination and proper sequencing
• Our partners talk about coordination, but no one
  wants to be coordinated
• Erosion of Patience (10 in extreme poverty)
• The good will of the Afghan people is our most
  important asset.

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Who is Responsible?

• Taliban
• Are the Taliban an alternative?
• Terrorize population into submission
• Xenophobic terrorists with a history of
  oppression
• No political vision
• No charismatic leaders or ideological coherence
• Aim to derail reconstruction
• Capitalize on public frustration
• Foreign ideological, financial and logistical
  support
• Links to Al Qaeda The Commander and the Foot
  Soldiers
• Al Qaeda
• IEDs, EFPs and Suicide Bombs
• Propaganda Media, DVDs, recruitment websites
• Criminals, Warlords and spoilers
• Narco-Traffickers

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Profile of a Suicide Bomber

• 1st wave Foreigners
• 2nd wave Local
• Who are the new recruits?
• Few hardcore Jihadis
• Taliban and Al Qaeda capitalizing on Ignorance,
  Poverty and Physical Handicaps
• Radical madrassa networks are brainwashing young
  people

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Our Strategy for Fighting Terror

• Fighting terrorism as a phenomenon,
• not just terrorists as individuals.
• CLEAR
• Large scale, periodic military operations
• Prevent Collateral Damage and Harm to Civilians
• HOLD
• NATO/ANA and ANP sequencing - do not abandon
  people
• Deliver services Court System, Police, Schools,
  Clinics
• BUILD
• No security without development
• Nati0nal ownership Afghan face, not Afghan pace
• Demand driven reconstruction in support of our
  National Strategy not prescriptive aid and pet
  projects

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Our Strategy Training Afghan Security Forces

• Success of Afghan National Army
• 48,000 troops Target 80,000
• Professional Training
• National Military Academy established modeled on
  West Point - 300 graduates per year
• Challenges of Afghan National Police
• 21 countries are helping
• Low level of accomplishment
• Challenges

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Global Security NATO

• NATO Summit in Romania
• 44,000 troops from 26 NATO countries, including
  18,500 U.S. soldiers
• 38 countries are putting troops and their
  credibility on the line
• 41 countries are training the ANA
• 60 countries are providing reconstruction
  resources

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Global Security

• International Consensus
• ISAF 26 NATO members plus 11 partner nations
• Challenge of coordination, troops and equipment
• Need unity of effort, joint priorities and agreed
  sequencing
• Shortage of Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams
  (OMLTs)
• Challenges of NATO transformation to meet a new
  threat
• National caveats 102 as of October 2007
• We have not fully been able to live up to the
  promises.
• NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer,
  October 2007

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International Consensus26 Provincial
Reconstruction Teams from 13 countries
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Challenges in Striking Back

• Perceptions
• Public confidence in government is eroding
• Corruption
• Government is still large and interfering rather
  than efficient and enabling
• Police reform The battle for public opinion
• Solution
• Build the capacity of the Afghan Government to
  deliver
• Anti-corruption strategy, Justice Sector,
  Salaries
• Balancing tribal leaders with good managers
• Expand pockets of competence within Government
• Channel more funding through Government and Trust
  Funds

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Challenges of Striking Back

• Fatal Error of Civilian Casualties
• Civilian casualties are unacceptable to the
  Afghan government and people
• Not only a fatal tragedy, but a strategic misstep
• Fuels enemy propaganda
• Use of human shields by terrorists
• Solution
• Improve quality of ground troops
• Surgical Operations Precision and human
  intelligence
• Rapid-Response units that can deal with
  emergencies More international special forces
• Rebuild Afghan air force
• The power of a quick apology - Jalalabad

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Challenges of Striking BackFatal Error of
Civilian Casualties
Source Cordesman, Anthony. The
Afghan-Pakistan WarA Status Report CSIS
12.04.2007
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Regional PowersA Dangerous Neighborhood
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Regional Powers A Volatile Region

• Far from Heaven
• Good partner in a strategic region
• Ring Road will turn Afghanistan into a roundabout
  for the region
• Relation with Pakistan
• Better than it sounds Mark Twain
• Elections in Pakistan A Step Forward
• Trade with Pakistan 500 increase
• New opportunities vs. old phobias and designs
• Central Asia
• Under-utilized potential of cooperation
• Iran Still constructive?
• India and China
• Our policy of seeking regional cooperation

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Measuring Progress
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Transition to Pluralism

• Tyranny that ruled through fear
• Absence of women from political and public life
• Devastated economy
• Largest refugee population in world
• No formal banking system
• School enrollment 900,000
• 8 of population has access to basic health care
• Few modern roads
• Repressive political climate,

• Elected President, Elected Parliament,
  Progressive Constitution
• 74 Women Elected to the Afghan Legislature
• Economy is Booming Continuous double digit
  Economic Growth
• 4.7 million refugees have returned home
• Independent Central Bank with 32 Branches
• School Enrollment 6 million
• 65-80 has access to health care
• 10,000 km of new roads
• Vibrant Political Process, hundreds of
  publications and radio stations, 6 independent TV
  stations

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Why is it important to stay engaged?

• Historic Lesson Being in Afghanistan is
  Dangerous Not being in Afghanistan is more
  Dangerous
• Investing in Afghanistan is a down payment for
  regional stability and tied to global security.
• NATO International credibility on the line
• Afghanistan should not remain the most
  under-resourced nation-building operation of the
  postwar era
• Need Marshall Plan and strategic commitment
• South Korea as a model

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What Can You Do?

• Learn more about Afghans
• Kite Runner, A Thousand Splendid Suns
• Buy Afghan products and give your home a touch of
  Afghanistan
• Rugs, Handicrafts
• People-to-People Diplomacy
• Help Educate the Next Generation of Afghan
  Leaders
• Travel See Afghanistan with your own eyes
• Help Heal the Wounds of War Doctors needed for
  volunteer work
• Celebrate Afghan Culture
• Hidden Treasures on tour in Europe and USA

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Grateful for your Support

• Your sons and daughters are fighting for global
  security
• The good will of the Afghan people is an asset
• Public Opinion in Afghanistan
• 90 of Afghans support the Afghan National Army
• President Karzais approval rating is 63
  (compare against other world leaders)
• 70 hold favorable views of the US military
• Afghans prefer current government to the Taliban
  by 84-4
• December 2007 ABC/BBC Poll
• and October 2007 Asia Foundation Poll

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Thank You

• www.embassyofafghanistan.org