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Update Pandemic Influenza Avian Influenza Seasonal Influenza


Pandemic (= worldwide) epidemic of a new influenza virus ... Starring Joely Richardson, Stacy Keach, Ann Cusack, Justina Machado, Scott Cohen ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Update Pandemic Influenza Avian Influenza Seasonal Influenza

UpdatePandemic InfluenzaAvian
InfluenzaSeasonal Influenza
  • Kevin G. Pearce, MPA
  • Peninsula Health District
  • Virginia Department of Health
  • August 2006

Why the concern?
  • Pandemic ( worldwide) epidemic of a new
    influenza virus
  • New virus ? Most people will have no immunity
  • Higher disease attack rates higher death rates
    than seasonal or normal influenza

Past influenza pandemics
  • Pandemic flu is unpredictable, like the flu virus
  • 1968-69 Hong Kong flu
  • 34,000 deaths in US
  • 1957-58 Asian flu
  • 70,000 deaths in US
  • 1918-1919 Spanish flu
  • gt500,000 deaths in US
  • Worst case scenario

Why the concern?
  • Pandemic ? rapid spread around world in repeating
  • 1918 waves circled globe in 6-9 months

United Kingdom experience Jordan E, American
Medical Association, 1927
High death rate among young adults
  • Influenza pneumonia mortality per 100,000
    person, by age group

Why the concern?
  • Extremely disruptive
  • Worker absenteeism
  • Lost productivity
  • Unable to get/transport supplies raw materials
  • Uncertain infrastructure
  • Fuel utilities telecom info technology
  • Public safety personnel public services
  • Food medicine suppliers
  • Increased demands on health care infrastructure
  • Reduced tourism, travel, entertaining, hotels
  • No help from other areastheyre affected

What if
  • On the Peninsulawe saw a 35 attack rate over 2
    months (approx. 163,000 ill)

Estimates using CDCs FluAid 2.0
Influenza on the Peninsula
Total cases 163,000 35 of population
  • Does
  • H5N1
  • avian influenza

ABC Original Movie Fatal Contact Bird Flu in
AmericaTuesday, May 9 at 8/7c Starring Joely
Richardson, Stacy Keach, Ann Cusack, Justina
Machado, Scott Cohen and David Ramsey
Pandemic influenza

H5N1 avian influenza
  • H5N1current epidemic avian flu strain
  • Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
  • Continuous circulation in Asia since 2003
  • Historically unprecedented avian pandemic
  • Magnitude duration of pandemic in birds
  • Virus is changing

H5N1 avian influenza(Nations with confirmed
cases July 7, 2006)
H5N1 avian influenza
  • Before 1997, H5 influenza virus never infected
  • Now
  • Human cases from close exposure to ill birds
  • No sustained human-to-human transmission
  • Few cases, but high fatality (gt50)
  • 229 cases 131 deaths, World Health
    Organization, July 4, 2006
  • Treatment primarily supportive
  • Antivirals (Tamiflu Relenza)

Is H5N1 a pandemic virus?
  • 3 requirements
  • v Novel strain - new H /or N subtype
  • v Causes significant disease in humans
  • NO Consistent human-to-human transmission
  • Avian H5N1 influenza virus is not a pandemic
    virus - but it might become one

H5N1 on WHOPandemic Risk Scale
  • National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza,
    November 1, 2005
  • HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan, November 2005
  • www.pandemicflu.gov
  • Virginia Department of Health Emergency
    Operations Plan Pandemic Influenza Attachment,
    Updated March 2006
  • www.vdh.virginia.gov/PandemicFlu/index.asp

PreparednessWhere do we stand?
  • No ready-to-use H5N1 vaccine
  • Antivirals
  • Limited supply of Tamiflu
  • Production in next 10 years will treat only 20
    of world population
  • Unclear if Tamiflu will work for treatment
  • Not enough available to use for prevention

Preparedness strategies
  • Heightened surveillance
  • Immediate response at 1st sign of an outbreak
  • Respond to limit and confine outbreak
  • Buy time to make vaccine and take other actions
  • Applies to both humans and birds

Control strategies
  • Isolation quarantine
  • Non-pharmaceutical approaches
  • Cough hand hygiene
  • Travel restrictions
  • Social distancing
  • Eliminate mass gatherings
  • Close schools, theaters, etc.
  • General public wears masks

What should you be doing?Prepare your family
  • Store a two week supply of food.
  • Have nonprescription drugs and other health
    supplies on hand.
  • Teach your children and model the behavior
  • To wash hands frequently with soap and water
  • To cover coughs and sneezes with tissues
  • To stay away from others as much as possible if
    they are sick
  • To stay home from work and school if sick.
  • Talk with family members and loved ones about how
    they would be cared for if they got sick, or what
    will be needed to care for them in their home.

  • A strong network of prepared people, families,
    and organizations is vital to a communitys
    successful response to pandemic influenza.

What else should you do?
  • Get flu shots every year to your entire staff.
  • Develop adequate stockpiles in case of supply
    chain disruption.
  • Plan for personnel decreases and novel ways to
    accomplish your objectives.
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