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Marketing Basics Dipping Your Toe in the Shallow End of the Marketing Pool

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Title: Marketing Basics Dipping Your Toe in the Shallow End of the Marketing Pool


1
Marketing Basics Dipping Your Toe in the Shallow
End of the Marketing Pool
  • Kevin Bernhardt UW-Extension and Center for Dairy
    Profitability
  • January 27, 2010

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9
Outlook
  • Better than 2009
  • logic leads one to believe that all commodity
    prices will be lifted, including dairy, but
    buyers and sellers of dairy commodities should be
    advised that the outlook for 2010 is uncertain at
    the moment, with differing viewpoints (Ken
    Bailey, Feedstuffs, Dec 14)

10
Agenda
  • Motivation
  • Basic Marketing Tools and Strategies
  • Advanced Strategies - Awareness
  • Marketing Plan Basics
  • Practicing our Marketing Savvy!

11
The Importance of Timing Person 1
  • July 2008 Input prices at record highs, but
    they are just going higher. People are talking
  • 10-12 corn, 600/ton SBM,
  • Nitrogen is already at 1,200/ton.
  • Im locking in my Corn and SBM for first quarter
    2009 before it gets any higher.
  • 8.00/bu corn 430/ton SBM

12
The Importance of Timing Person 1
  • Still July 2008 March 2009 Milk prices are
    great too, but..
  • New Zealand is in a drought,
  • Its hot in California, and
  • Europeans are buying.
  • People say milk will get to 25 before it is
    over. Im waiting!

13
The Importance of Timing Person 1
  • September 2008 Milk prices have really slid to
    about 15.50. But, its a correction and the
    market needed a correction. Im going to wait
    now until prices come back. Besides, I kinda
    locked in those feed prices at the wrong time and
    I need a higher milk price to make it pay.

14
The Importance of Timing Person 1
  • March 2009 Im feeding 8.00 corn and
    430/ton SBM. Milk price turned out to be
    10.44. I never did lock in my milk price.
  • Profits - 120,000 (Return ML)

15
The Importance of Timing Person 2
  • I forward contracted my March 2009 milk in May
    2008 at 16.50/cwt (could have had more if I had
    waited awhile).
  • At the same time, using marketing tools, I
    assured a ceiling cost for corn of 5.35 and
    338.50 for SBM.
  • 5.25 CALL for .10/bu
  • 330/ton SBM option for 8.50/ton.

16
The Importance of Timing Person 2
  • March 2009 Market Prices Corn 3.75 SBM
    311.50
  • My protected ceiling price turned out to not be
    needed. After adding the cost of having that
    protection my feed costs are
  • March 2009 Profits 74,925

3.85
320
17
My Own Real Life Example
  • Its April 9, 2004
  • November 2004 Forward Contract is available at
    13.68
  • December 2004 F.C. is available for 12.90
  • That is a top 25th percentile price for both
    months and well above blue ribbon price.
  • Pull the trigger and sell!!!!

18
My Own Real-Life Example
  • As of December 8th,
  • November announced at 14.89
  • LOSS OF 1.21/cwt.
  • December settled at 16.55
  • LOSS OF 3.65

19
Another Real-Life Example
  • Its July, 2008
  • The words out that milk is going to 25/cwt.
  • I slammed my fingers in the drawer at 17, 18,
    and 19.
  • Finally Forward Contracted for next 18 months at
    19.91.

20
Another Real-Life Example
  • How much did I pay for feed, fertilizer, and
    fuel?
  • I only did 25 of my production!!

21
Which Type of Marketer Are You?
Announced Price Was 20.07
Both Forward Contracted for 18.00
22
WHEN IT COMES TO MANAGEMENT, WE ARE NOT ALL THE
SAME MANAGEMENT MATTERS
23
Return to Management and Labor
Production Matters Price Matters
137 hay, 4.00 corn, 300 SBM
24
Increase in Feed Costs
Decrease in Feed Costs
Input Costs Matter
25
ROROE (mrkt basis w economic depreciation) CDP
100-250 Cow Dairies in WI (freestall, no
pasture, not organic)
26
Management Matters
  • 110 MN and WI farms, Average of 2006 and 2007

27
Volatility in 2008-09 was Unprecedented
  • How many of you think this volatility will happen
    sometime again?
  • How many of you think that volatility may be less
    than this wild time, but still at a level where
    profit margins can swing significantly?
  • My guess is your shaking your heads YES

28
What Are The Lessons?
  • Timing is important.
  • Its the margin (difference between price and
    costs) that counts.
  • We need a mindset that manages for profitability
    and risk - not the homerun
  • Volatility is a fact of life (output and inputs)
  • Management matters

A Great Deal
29
Basic Marketing Tools and Strategies A Review
30
Two Markets
  • Two Different Markets
  • Cash
  • What you are in every day when you produce and
    sell milk
  • Futures
  • What you can choose to be in if you buy and sell
    Futures or buy and sell Options on the Chicago
    Mercantile Exchange
  • You do not need to be a producer. You do not
    need to own a single cow. Anyone can be a farmer
    in the futures market!!!!

31
Tools in the Marketing Toolbox
Cash Market Forward Contract Minimum Price
Contract Futures Market Futures Contract PUT
Option CALL Option
And all kinds of combinations of the above!
LGM-Dairy
32
Forward Contract (Cash Market)
  • Transaction with your milk buyer for a contracted
    quantity and price
  • You must deliver
  • You will get the contracted price (nothing more
    nothing less
  • 3rd party risk
  • Contracted price is futures price less a premium
  • No broker, no brokers fee, no margin account

33
Futures Contract (Futures Mrkt)
  • Transaction through a broker with the Chicago
    Mercantile Exchange
  • Sell a futures contract for a set price and
    quantity (200,000 or 100,000 lbs)
  • Has nothing to do with your physical production
    and nothing to do with what your milk plant pays
    you
  • You dont even have to have any cows!
  • But, it will connect in the end to lock-in a price

34
Futures Contract (Futures Mrkt)
  • You must pay a brokers fee
  • You must maintain a margin account
  • You may get margin calls
  • Market moves up .25 one day, then you may have
    to send the broker a check for 500 (.252000
    cwt)
  • If mrkt moves down you receive 500
  • You can get out of the contract at any time.
  • There is no physical delivery requirement

35
Pit/Trading Floor
You
Local Broker
CME
Other Party
36
Margin Account!!
Margin Account
37
PUT Option (Futures Mrkt)
  • Buying a PUT Option gives you the right to sell a
    futures contract at a set price, but not the
    obligation. You pay a premium for this right.
    Protects against the risk of falling prices

38
CALL Option (Futures Mrkt)
  • Buying a CALL Option gives you the right to buy a
    futures contract at a set price, but not the
    obligation. You pay a premium for this right.
    Protects against the risk of rising prices

39
Basic Strategies (2 Basic Strategies 2 Tools)
  • Lock-in a known price. The price you set is the
    price you will get.
  • Forward contract with your milk buyer
  • Sell a futures contract on the CME
  • Set a Floor price. You will get no less than the
    floor price, but you may get more.
  • Minimum price contract with your milk buyer
  • Buy a PUT option on the CME

40
Basic Strategy 1 Lock It In!
- Forward Contract with milk buyer, or - Sell
June futures contract at CME for 15.35
15.35
41
Locking In a Price
  • By Selling a Futures Contract
  • Advantages
  • 1) Achieves a specific price or profit
    objective
  • 2) Can get out if markets change
  • 3) Not tied to a milk buyer
  • Disadvantage
  • 1) Margin account and calls
  • 2) Forgo higher prices
  • 3) 200,000 lb. Contracts
  • By Forward Contracting
  • Advantages
  • 1) Achieves a specific price or profit
    objective
  • 2) Flexible in terms of quantities of milk to
    contract
  • 3) Simple to use
  • 4) No margin account or calls
  • Disadvantages
  • 1) Locked into a milk buyer
  • 2) Cant get out of contract if markets change,
    must deliver!
  • 3) Forgo higher prices

42
Lets Practice Selling Futures
Always Ask and Answer What am I doing to
myself?
  • May Futures are trading at 14.75
  • What price position have you secured for 200,000
    lbs of milk in May?

(14.75)
43
May Milk Announced at 17.00
14.75
17.00
-17.00
14.75
44
May Milk Announced at 12.00
14.75
12.00
-12.00
14.75
45
Forward Contract May Milk Announced at 17.00
14.45
46
Forward Contract May Milk Announced at 12.00
14.45
47
Basic Strategy 2 Set a Floor Price
  • Minimum Price contract with milk buyer, or -
    Buy a PUT Option at the CME (15.25 strike price
    for .79) for a floor of 14.46

14.46
48
Lets Practice Setting a Floor Price via Buying
a PUT Option
Always Ask and Answer What am I doing to
myself?
  • Buy a 15.50 July PUT Option for .62
  • What price position have you secured for 200,000
    lbs of July milk?

14.88 minimum (15.50-.62)
49
May Milk Announced at 17.00
-.62
17.00
0
16.38
50
May Milk Announced at 12.00
-.62
12.00
3.50
14.88
51
Advanced Strategies
  • Want to increase your protection? Take
    advantage of market gains? Premiums to costly?
  • Roll up to futures
  • Roll up to a higher PUT
  • Forward contract and buy a CALL option
  • Buy a PUT and sell a CALL
  • Roll down futures to a PUT

52
Focus on Basics first, but a Taste of Advanced
Strategies
  • Forward Contract and Buy a Call Option
  • Why? You dont want to risk getting a lower
    price in case markets fall, but you dont want to
    miss out if there is a super rally!

53
Forward Contract and Buy a Call Option
  • Forward contract March 2010 milk for 14.45
    (14.70 futures price less .25 discount).
  • At the same time buy a 16.00 CALL option for
    .32
  • Remember, CALL option gives you the right to buy
    a futures contract for 16.00 and sell it back at
    the then prevailing price

54
Forward Contract and Buy a Call Option
  • What are you doing to yourself?
  • You will receive a minimum of 14.13 class III
    price for your milk (14.70 - .25 - .32).
  • However, if markets rally beyond 16.00, then you
    will receive payment back from your CALL Option,
    which gives you the right to buy at 16.00 and
    sell at the higher price.

55
Forward Contract and Buy a Call Option
  • March 2010 turns out to be 13.50
  • Sell milk to plant for 14.13 (14.70 - .25 -
    .32)
  • Your CALL option expires worthless (dont want to
    buy milk at 16.00 and then sell it at 13.50).
  • C-III Base Price 14.13
  • If you had forward contracted only 14.45
  • If you had done nothing 13.50

56
Forward Contract and Buy a Call Option
  • March 2010 turns out to be 17.50
  • Sell milk to plant for 14.13 (14.70 - .25 -
    .32)
  • Exercise your CALL option (that is, buy milk at
    16.00 and sell at 17.50 for a 1.50 gain)
  • C-III Base (14.13) Call Gain (1.50) 15.63
  • If you had forward contracted only 14.45
  • If you had done nothing 17.50

57
Marketing Plan
58
58
MARKETING PLAN WHY?
  • Instills discipline into a normally emotionally
    driven decision
  • Provides a means to evaluate, benchmark, and
    learn the science and art of marketing

59
YOU WILL BE WRONG
59
You Cant Outguess The Market!!
Good producers hate to be wrong! Good marketers
have to get use to being wrong!
60
Parts of a Marketing Plan
60
  • Getting ready
  • Take an Inventory marketing resources, risk
    tolerance, and non-price marketing objectives
  • Know the Playing Field situation, outlook,
    historical prices.
  • Know Your Toolbox Marketing Tools and
    Strategies
  • Take Aim
  • Costs of production and Financial objectives
  • Personal Price Targets
  • Basis and Triggers for Action
  • Marketing Protocols (what do you do when your
    triggers tripped!)
  • Fire
  • Evaluation, control, and record-keeping

61
Marketing Resources, Risk Tolerance, Non-Price
Objectives
  • Marketing Resources
  • Skill level, computer power and savvy, marketing
    services, relationship with broker, banker,
    market advisors, skills of other partners/spouse
  • Risk Tolerance
  • What are your personal attitudes towards risk
  • What is your operations capacity to absorb risk

62
Marketing Resources, Risk Tolerance, Non-Price
Objectives
  • Non-Price Objectives
  • Develop relationships (banker, broker, advisors)
  • Start/join a marketing club
  • Subscribe to an advisory service
  • Weekly/monthly farm marketing meetings

Whats your non-price objective?
What will you do after breakfast tomorrow to make
it happen?
63
Know the Playing Field
  • Situation, Outlook, and
  • Historical Prices

64
Situation and Outlook
  • U.S. Production
  • Cow numbers
  • Production per cow
  • Demand
  • Value of the dollar (export demand)
  • Corn, soybean, and forage supplies and quality
  • ..

65
Historical Prices What is a Good Price Based on
What the Market Provides
65
  • History
  • What is the average price for each month
  • What is the top third price, top 16 price
  • What is the seasonality of prices
  • What is the average, top 1/3, etc. based on
    forward pricing opportunities

Word of Caution History may have changed?
66
Class III Prices
1980-2004 Average 11.94 Median
11.89 Top 25 12.54 Avg SD 13.35
2004-2009 Average 14.69 Median
14.24 Top 25 17.04 Avg SD 17.80
67
Seasonality (Averages)
68
Know Your Marketing Toolbox
Cash Market Forward Contract Minimum Price
Contract Futures Market Futures Contract PUT
Option CALL Option
And all kinds of combinations of the above!
LGM-Dairy
69
Costs of Production, Financial Objectives, and
Personal Price Targets
69
  • What price do you uniquely need/want
  • Cost of production
  • Other farm business and family financial
    objectives that you want the milk check to cover

70
Financial Objectives - Example
70
  • 120 cows _at_22,000 lbs 26,400 cwt per yr.
  • Costs of Production 14.75
  • Financial Objectives beyond cost recovery
  • 40,000 (family living contribution from cows)
  • 40,000 (retained earnings for business - future
    expansion plans, improvements, etc.)
  • 30,000 (misc)
  • 110,000 (approx. 9-12 ROROA)

71
Personal Price Targets
71
Purple Ribbon
Blue Ribbon

Red Ribbon
White Ribbon (cash costs)

72
  • Based on 26,400 cwt produced per year

73
Basis
73
  • Difference between announced price and mailbox
    price

74
Marketing Price Triggers for Action
Error on your basis estimate to the low side.
Being wrong leaves more money in your pocket.
75
Price Triggers For Action
75
  • Gun is loaded - Duck is in my sights - Its duck
    season - Its a big duck

A Pricing opportunity - Exceeds my purple
ribbon price target - Is top 15 historically
PULL THE TRIGGER!
PULL THE TRIGGER!
76
Marketing Protocols
  • Your Marketing Rules

Tough, Tough, Tough
77
77
How Does The Price Compare to Historical Prices
What is the General Outlook for Prices
Trigger Price At What Price Will I Engage This
Action
Months Away From Market Month
Marketing Action What is My Marketing Decision
Set floor with unlimited upside
Less than 3
?
?
Top 1/3
Hedge 80
?
?
Middle 1/3
?
3-6
?
?
?
Low 1/3
?
More than 6
78
What is Your Marketing Philosophy?
79
79
Put
Call
Hedge
Forward
Sale
Short
Fence
Do Nothing
80
80
Control Evaluate Records
  • Set aside specific time for marketing just as you
    set time aside for doing the milking
  • Always Review and Revise (with spouse, partner,
    banker, Extension agent, broker, marketing club
    etc.)
  • Market for the long run

81
81
Following are some people we know who made their
plans happen!!!
82
82
This child, at four years old, could not speak.
Some thought he would not make it in life due to
lack of intelligence. Who was it?
Albert Einstein
83
83
His music teacher once said of him, As a
composer he is hopeless. Who was it?
Beethoven
84
84
This persons teacher told him he was too stupid
to learn anything. Who was it?
Thomas Edison
85
85
He was cut from his high school basketball team.
Who was it?
Michael Jordan
86
86
This person was fired from his first job because
he lacked imagination. Who was it?
Walt Disney
87
87
This person failed the 6th grade. Who was it?
Winston Churchill
88
Be Realistic
  • Are you reducing price risk or are you wanting a
    higher price?

89
FC 100 at 10.00 Trigger
90
11.00 PUT for .15
91
FC 10, 15 and 25 at 50th, 70th and 90th -tile
92
Think of Marketing in Two Levels
93
Which Type of Marketer Are You?
Announced Price Was 20.07
Both Forward Contracted for 18.00
94
(No Transcript)
95
Lets Practice Our Marketing Savvy!! A Game
Based on Managing and Marketing the Margin
96
Case Farm
  • 100 lactating cows
  • Parlor/Free Stall facilities
  • Ration based on 23,000 lb herd average
  • 1.30 of income beyond class III milk sales
  • Budget based on current forecasts for 2010
  • Estimates based on the Wisconsin Dairy
    Enterprise Planning Budget 2008 (Bruce Jones
    and Ken Barnett with modifications by Ken
    Bolton), Center for Dairy Profitability

97
Case Farm
98
First of Three Marketing Dates
  • You can price protect feed costs and milk now,
    the 2nd date or the 3rd date
  • OR you can let it ride

99
Current Feed Cost Estimates
Decision You can 1) lock these costs in or 2)
let them ride What is Your Decision?
100
Price Targets Given Feed Costs
Red Ribbon minimum family living livestock
replacement, labor Blue Ribbon Red facility
and equipment costs Purple Red Blue 10
ROROA
101
1st of 3 Pricing Opportunities
Outlook
Futures 14.00 Put Prices 13.75 _at_ .64
13.11 13.25 _at_ .50 12.75
7 months out
102
1st of 3 Make a Decision and Record It
Futures 14.00 Put Prices 13.75 _at_ .64
13.11 13.25 _at_ .50 12.75
Outlook
103
Second of Three Marketing Dates
Feed costs may have changed. The dice will be
thrown with the following result
104
Current Feed Cost Estimates
Decision If you have not already locked in
costs, You can 1) lock these costs in or 2) let
them ride What is Your Decision?
105
2nd of 3 Pricing Opportunities
Outlook
Futures 13.74 Put Prices 13.50 _at_ .60
12.90 13.00 _at_ .35 12.65
7 months out
5 months out
106
2nd Date Make a Decision and Record It
Futures 13.74 Put Prices 13.50 _at_ .60
12.90 13.00 _at_ .35 12.65
Outlook
107
Third and Last Marketing Date
Feed costs may have changed. The dice will be
thrown with the following result
108
Current Feed Cost Estimates
Decision If you have not already locked in
costs, You can 1) lock these costs in or 2) let
them ride What is Your Decision?
109
3rd and Last Pricing Opportunity
Outlook
Futures 17.40 Put Prices 17.25 _at_ .83
16.42 16.25 _at_ .42 15.83
3 months out
7 months out
5 months out
110
3rd Date Make a Decision and Record It
Futures 17.40 Put Prices 17.25 _at_ .83
16.42 16.25 _at_ .42 15.83
Outlook
111
Final Feed Costs
112
Markets Are Closed and Class III Announced at
10.90/cwt
Announced Class III 10.90 Your Price 12.20
113
What Was Your Price Compared to the Price Targets?
Red Ribbon minimum family living livestock
replacement, labor Blue Ribbon Red facility
and equipment costs Purple Red Blue 10
ROROA
114
Summary of Locked-in Pricing Opportunities
(Profit/Cow/Month)
115
Summary of Locked-in Pricing Opportunities
(Profit/Cow/Annualized)
116
Final Comment
Advice and counsel from others is critical -
Extension Agents - Lenders - Consultants
- Marketing Specialist - Etc. BUT, in the end
it is your call
117
There's Liars, Darn Liars, and Marketing
Specialists!
118
Futures Prices in Context (Comparison of Feb 7 to
Sept. 14, 2007)
118
1996-2006 data
119
The End
120
Sources Websites
  • The Oil Drum http//www.theoildrum.com/story/2006
    /10/5/215316/408
  • Association for the Study of Peak Oil
    http//aspo-usa.com/
  • Oil Market Report http//omrpublic.iea.org/
  • Now and Future http//www.nowandfutures.com/inde
    x.html
  • WTRG Economics http//www.wtrg.com/
  • World Bank Group http//ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ex
    t/DDPQQ/member.do?methodgetMembers
  • Farm Foundation http//www.farmfoundation.org/
  • USDA Economic Research Service
    http//www.ers.usda.gov/
  • Trading Charts, Inc http//futures.tradingcharts.
    com/
  • CHOICES http//www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/
    issue.php
  • Foreign Agricultural Service http//www.fas.usda
    .gov/default.asp
  • University of Illinois Farmdoc website
    http//www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//
  • Iowa State University Ag Decision Maker
    http//www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
  • University of Wisconsin, Center for Dairy
    Profitability http//cdp.wisc.edu/
  • University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial
    Management http//www.finbin.umn.edu/

121
Sources Written Articles
  • Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Factors
    Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food
    Commodity Prices. USDA/ERS, July 2008.
    http//www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/WRS0801/
  • Bahn, Henry. Commodity Prices Rock World
    Markets Structural Shift or Short Term
    Adjustments? Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt 2008 23(2).
    http//www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/issue.php
  • Westhoff, Pat. Farm Commodity Prices Why the
    Boom and What Happens Now? Choices, AAEA, 2nd
    qrt 2008 23(2).
  • Lawrence, John D., James Mintert, John D.
    Anderson, and David P. Anderson. Feed Grains
    and Livestock Impacts on Meat Supplies and
    Prices. Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt 2008 23(2).
  • Irwin, Scott H., Philip Garcia, Darrel L. Good
    and Eugene L. Kunda. Recent Convergence
    Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat
    Futures Contracts. Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt 2008
    23(2).
  • Mark, Darrell R., B. Wade Brorsen, Kim B.
    Anderson, and Rebecca M. Small. Price Risk
    Management Alternatives for Farmers in the
    Absence of Forward Contracts with Grain
    Merchants. Choices, AAEA, 2nd qrt 2008 23(2).
  • Abbott, Philip C., Christopher Hurt, and Wallace
    E. Tyner. Whats Driving Food Prices? Issue
    Report from the Farm Foundation, July 2008.
    http//www.farmfoundation.org/news/templates/templ
    ate.aspx?articleid404zoneid26
  • Fortenbery, T. Randall and Hwanil Park. The
    Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National
    Corn Price. Univ. of WI-Madison Dept. of Ag and
    Applied Econ Staff Paper no. 523, April 2008.

122
Sources Written Articles
  • Irwin, Scott. Crop value and volatility in a
    new era 2008 Illinois Farm Economics Summit,
    http//www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//presentations/index.a
    sp .
  • Schnitkey, Gary. Prospects for Crop Production
    Costs 2008 Illinois Farm Economics Summit,
    http//www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu//presentations/index.a
    sp .
  • Schnitkey, Gary. Farm Economics Facts
    Opinions, Department of Agricultural and
    Consumer Economics, College of Agricultural,
    Consumer, and Environmental Sciencds, university
    of Illinois at Urbana-Shampaign, FEFO 08-13, July
    11, 2008.
  • Duffy, Michael, and Darnell Smith. Estimated
    Costs of Crop Production in Iowa- 2009, Ag
    Decision Maker, Iowa State University, University
    Extension, FM-1712 Revised, December 2008.
  • Duffy, Mike. Estimating costs of crop
    production for 2009, Ag Decision Maker
    Newsletter, Iowa State University, University
    Extension, January 2009

123
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