Presidents

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Presidents the Public

• October 25, 2005

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Measuring approval

• Gallup "Do you approve or disapprove of the way
  George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"
• Zogby "Overall, how would you rate President
  Bush's performance on the job excellent, good,
  fair, or poor?
• Fox Do you approve or disapprove of the job
  George W. Bush is doing as president?

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Bushs job approval (Gallup)
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Bushs job approval (Zogby)
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Bushs approval rating (Fox)
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What affects peoples opinions?

• The economy

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(No Transcript)
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What affects peoples opinions?

• The economy
• Rally effects

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Bushs job approval (Gallup)
9/14/01
11/7/04
9/7/01
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Approvedisapprove (Gallup)
9/14/01
Bush declares Mission Accomplished in Iraq
2004 Election
9/7/01
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What affects peoples opinions?

• The economy
• Rally effects
• News about outcomes

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Approvedisapprove (Gallup)
500 US troops dead in Iraq
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Approvedisapprove (Fox)
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Consequences?

• Affects relationships with members of Congress
• Electoral impacts

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(No Transcript)
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Doonsbury (5/1/03)
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NBC "Which of the following do you think best
describes the financial situation of Social
Security today . . . ?"
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NBC "In general, do you think that it is a good
idea or a bad idea to change the Social Security
system to allow workers to invest their Social
Security contributions in the stock market?"
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Gallup . . . allow people . . . to invest some
of their Social Security taxes in the stock
market and bonds, but would reduce the guaranteed
benefits they get when they retire. Do you think
this is a good idea or a bad idea?"
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Consequences?

• Affects relationships with members of Congress
• Electoral impacts
• How do presidents try to manipulate public
  opinion to their advantage?

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Going public

• A strategy whereby a president promotes himself
  and his policies by appealing to the American
  public for support.
• Going over Congress

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Going public

• A strategy whereby a president promotes himself
  and his policies by appealing to the American
  public for support.
• Going over Congress

President
Congress
Public
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TR on Republicans in the Senate

• Gradually I was forced to abandon the effort to
  persuade them to come my way, and then I achieved
  results only by appealing over the heads of the
  Senate and House leaders to the people, who were
  the masters of both of us.

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TR on Republicans in the Senate

• Gradually I was forced to abandon the effort to
  persuade them to come my way, and then I achieved
  results only by appealing over the heads of the
  Senate and House leaders to the people, who were
  the masters of both of us.
• Congress was controlled by his party!

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Why more frequent?

• Changes in technology
• Communications travel
• Changes in presidential selection
• Better chance of success
• Move from institutionalized pluralism to
  individualized pluralism

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Presidential appearances
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Presidential addresses
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Not bargaining!

• No exchanges/concessions
• Punishes but does not reward
• No chance for adaptation
• Undermines other actors

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Reagans approval rating
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Reagans approval rating