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Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy

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Title: Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy


1
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • SESSION OUTLINE
  • I. Customer trends and marketing strategies.
  • II. Industry trends and emerging technologies
  • III. A "demographic snapshot" of consumers.
  • IV. Global demographic trends in age, income,
    education, and diversity.
  • V. How will these trends affect your businesses?

2
How important are the following trends in your
industry?
  • Importance Most
  • Not Somewhat Very Most Very
  • Industry Trends and Emerging Technologies
  • Infotech 0 8 47 45 92
  • Biotech 68 13 13 5 18
  • Other Technologies 13 24 45 18 63
  • Environmental Issues 11 21 39 29 68
  • Globalization 3 5 50 42 92
  • Consumer Trends
  • Age 13 24 47 16 63
  • Income 0 34 32 34 66
  • Education 0 39 53 8 61
  • Diversity 11 53 24 13 37

3
Customer Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • RIDE THE WAVE Change marketing strategies to
    follow current customers and target new segments.
  • WEATHER THE STORM Maintain core marketing
    competencies in the segments that value them,
    abandon customers that leave your niche and
    acquire customers that enter it.
  • FAN THE FLAMES Change marketing strategies to
    accelerate the behaviors that accompany
    demographic trends, abandon current customers, if
    necessary, in order "create" new ones.

4
Customer Trends and Marketing Strategy
5
Customer Trends and Marketing Strategy
6
Industry Trends and Emerging Technologies
  • Expert Opinion
  • (World Future Society Survey)

7
Emerging Technologies Forecasts2003 to 2062 (The
Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Prob- Demand Date Category Technolog
y Prediction ability ( mil) 2003 Infotech-Info
Serv. Entertainment on demand commercially
available 84 90 2005 Infotech-Hardware PCs w/
interactive TV commercially available 84 111 2006
Infotech-Comm. Standard digital protocol 80 in
ICs 70 70 2007 Medicine Self-care info
systems commonly used 82 87 2008 Farming
Food Genetically produced food routinely
used 75 67 2009 Infotech-Comm. Broadband
networks majority of homes/offices 70 103 2010 En
ergy Alternative energy sources 10 of energy
use 77 46 2011 Mfr. Robotics Mass
customization commonly avail. (30) 73 330 2012 M
fr. Robotics Computer integrated mfr. 80 of
factories 73 124 2013 Medicine Gene
therapy routinely used 63 63 2015 Materials Super
conducting materials commonly used
(30) 56 43 2016 Environment Recycled
goods majority of goods 66 126 2017 Energy Fuel
cells commonly used (30) 53 61 2018 Infotech-Inf
o Serv. Electronic sales 50 of all goods in
US 55 208 2019 Infotech-Info Serv. Telecommuting
80 of employees 56 468 2020 Medicine Genetic
eng. of children routinely used 53 21 2022 Farmin
g Food Artificial foods commonly used
(30) 39 75 2023 Transportation Clustered
communities reduce transport needs 53 85 2025 Tra
nsportation Hypersonic planes majority
transoceanic flts. 48 91 2026 Energy Fusion
power used commercially 50 113 2027 Materials Sel
f-assembling materials routinely
used 56 82 2028 Space Permanent moon
base established 55 32 2049 Space Extraterrestria
l contact w/ intelligent life 33 45 2062 Space Ne
ar-light speed travel 80 light speed 43 75
8
Emerging Technologies ForecastsRanked by "NPV"
(The Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Exp. NPV Date Category Technology Pr
ediction Value (10) Prob Dmd 2011 Mfr.
Robotics Mass customization commonly avail.
(30) 241 68 73 330 2003 Infotech-
Serv. Entertainment on demand commercially
available 76 50 84 90 2005 Infotech-Hardw PCs w/
interactive TV commercially available 93 50 84 11
1 2006 Infotech-Hardw Ent. center w/ interact.
TV commercially available 90 43 83 109 2019 Infot
ech- Serv. Telecommuting 80 of
employees 262 32 56 468 2007 Medicine Self-care
info systems commonly used 71 31 82 87 2006 Trans
portation Hybrid elec/combust veh. commercially
available 60 29 69 87 2009 Infotech-Comm. Broadba
nd networks majority of homes/offices 72 25 70 10
3 2006 Infotech-Comm. Standard digital
protocol 80 in ICs 49 23 70 70 2012 Mfr.
Robotics Computer integrated mfr. 80 of
factories 91 23 73 124 2008 Infotech-Comm. Inform
ation superhighway 80 access in
ICs 58 22 78 74 2004 Infotech-
Serv. Videoconferencing routinely
used 37 22 83 44 2010 Environment "Green"
manufacturing adopted by most mfrs. 66 21 73 90 2
011 Transportation Electric cars commonly avail.
(30) 71 20 70 102 2008 Infotech-Hardw Parallel
processing commonly used (30) 51 20 80 64 2008 F
arming Food Genetically produced food routinely
used 50 19 75 67 2006 Environment CFCs are
replaced majority replaced 40 19 77 52 2015 Mfr.
Robotics Factory jobs decline 10 due to
automation 101 19 67 150 2009 Infotech-
Serv. Electronic banking principle means of
com. 48 17 70 69 2006 Infotech-Hardw Advanced
data storage standard on PCs 33 16 75 44 2008 Inf
otech-Hardw PDAs majority of people 41 16 75 54

9
Industry Trends and Emerging Technologies
  • Expert Opinion
  • Historically, experts have been reasonably good
    at predicting which technologies are coming in
    the future, but not very good at predicting when.
  • "When" usually depends on consumer demand because
    this justifies investments in RD early on and
    marketing/commercialization later.

10
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • A Demographic "Snapshot"
  • of the United States

11
A Demographic "Snapshot" of the United StatesA
Cluster Analysis of Age/Income/Education Groups
  • Cluster analysis based on data published by
    Simmons Marketing Research Bureau, 1997 236
    product, media, and lifestyle variables, 27
    demographic groups)

12
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsPersonal
Computers
13
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsComputers
Personal Finance
SOURCE Simmons Marketing Research Bureau, 1997
14
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • AGE, INCOME, EDUCATION
  • Back to basics in market segmentation and
    strategic planning.

15
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • AGE
  • 1. In economically developed countries, "baby
    booms" are "graying" and "echo booms" are
    emerging.
  • 2. In developing countries, youth segments are
    large, but total population is "graying," too ...
  • 3. ...because birth rates are generally dropping
    and life expectancy is generally increasing
    everywhere most rapidly in developing countries.
  • INCOME
  • 4. Income is generally increasing everywhere a
    large "middle class" is emerging in developing
    countries, but setbacks are frequent.
  • 5. Both convergence and divergence (or
    polarization) are frequently seen between and
    within countries.
  • EDUCATION
  • 6. Literacy rates are increasing in developing
    countries most rapidly in younger age cohorts.
  • 7. Education levels are generally increasing
    most rapidly for the young divergence is a
    problem.
  • 8. Computer literacy is generally increasing
    most rapidly for the young the "digital divide"
    is increasing.
  • DIVERSITY
  • 9. Gender differences are diminishing in most
    developed and developing countries.
  • 10. Ethnic diversity is increasing in most
    developed and developing countries.

16
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • Age cohorts shape marketing strategy because they
    carry enduring consumer characteristics into each
    phase of life.

AGE 1. In economically developed countries, "baby
booms" are "graying" and "echo booms" are
emerging. 2. In developing countries, youth
segments are large, but total population is
"graying," too ... 3. ...because birth rates are
generally dropping and life expectancy is
generally increasing everywhere most rapidly in
developing countries.
17
Age cohorts are determined by the population
growth and life expectancy
Increase in millions
Population in billions
10 6 2
1000 600 200
POPULATION CHANGE (bars 10 year window)
WORLD POPULATION (line)
1750 1800 1850
1900 1950 2000
2050 SOURCE United Nations and U.S. Bureau of
the Census, International data Base
18
The "Graying" of the Baby Boom
  • In 2000,
  • MATURES ages 55 and older, 58.7 million, per
    capita income 8,000 (female/male 53)
  • BOOMERS ages 36-54, 77.4 million, per capita
    income 29,000 (female/male 57)
  • GEN-X ages 24-35, 44.9 million, per capita
    income 23,000 (female/male 65)
  • GEN-Y (echo boomers) ages 6-23, 71 million

Matures
Boomers
Generation X
Matures
Boomers
Generation X
Generation Y
Source US Census Bureau
19
The "American Dream"
  • ALL GROUPS freedom of choice, happiness, owning
    your own home, comfortable retirement
  • MATURES happy marriage, having children
  • BOOMERS living in a decent, secure community
    where everyone shares my values "cocooning" --
    spending money on the home environment
  • GEN-X pursuing my dreams, college education,
    being a winner and becoming wealthy
    "experiencing" -- spending money on out-of-home
    activities
  • GEN-Y not well-understood yet they are the
    most "electronic" and have shown responsiveness
    to new brands and unusual media, including
    email-driven word-of-mouth less concern with
    success, more social awareness

Source Yankelovich Report on Generational
Marketing Rocking the Ages, Smith Clurman, 1997
20
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsPersonal
Computers
21
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsConsumer
Internet Shopping
eBoomers are 18 of the population, but 76 of
consumer e-commerce in the U.S.
22
Baby Booms in the U. S., U.K., Russia, Germany,
Canada, and Australia
1997
1997
Russia
2025
2025
1997
1997
1997
Australia
Germany
Canada
2025
2025
2025
23
Population Trends in Japan and China
24
Population Trends in Brazil
25
Population Trends in Mexico and India
26
Population Trends in Indonesia and Argentina
27
Global Demographic Trends Implications for
Marketing Strategy
AGE 1. In economically developed countries, "baby
booms" are "graying" and "echo booms" are
emerging. 2. In developing countries, youth
segments are large, but total population is
"graying," too ... 3. ...because birth rates are
generally dropping and life expectancy is
generally increasing everywhere most rapidly in
developing countries.
  • Which behaviors will each age cohort keep
    lifelong, which will they adopt from their
    seniors, and which will they adopt from their
    juniors?
  • - key benefits sought?
  • - media preferences?
  • - attitudes toward spending, borrowing,
    saving?
  • Will "global" age cohorts become prominent? If
    so, what are the implications for developing
    global products and global brands?

28
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • Average incomes are increasing, but instability,
    convergence, and divergence make detailed
    long-range predictions difficult.

INCOME 4. Income is generally increasing
everywhere a large "middle class" is emerging in
developing countries, but setbacks are
frequent. 5. Both convergence and divergence (or
polarization) are frequently seen between and
within countries.
29
Global Trends in GNP per capita
SOURCE World Bank, World Development Indicators,
1997
30
World Development Report 2000/2001(www.worldbank.
org)
31
Income Polarization
  • COUNTRY LOW HIGH
  • Brazil ('88) 2.4 66.4
  • Mexico ('83) 4.0 50.6
  • U.S. ('90) 3.9 46.6
  • Australia ('90) 4.5 46.4
  • Italy ('86) 4.5 46.4
  • Germany ('84) 6.8 44.9
  • India ('90) 8.8 42.2
  • U.K. ('90) 6.6 42.4
  • France ('84) 7.1 40.3
  • Canada ('91) 5.3 35.5
  • Japan ('89) 10.9 31.6
  • China ('90) 12.9 30.6

SOURCE Encyclopaedia Britannica, 1994 The
Economist Intelligence Unit Limited, 1998
32
World Development Report 2000/2001(www.worldbank.
org)
33
Global Demographic Trends Implications for
Marketing Strategy
INCOME 4. Income is generally increasing
everywhere a large "middle class" is emerging in
developing countries, but setbacks are
frequent. 5. Both convergence and divergence (or
polarization) are frequently seen between and
within countries.
  • When and where will a large middle class emerge
    in developing countries? How will they be
    reached with products and marketing
    communications?
  • Will income polarization lead to two-tier
    marketing? Will it lead to social conflict?

34
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • Each age cohort is better educated than the
    previous one, and education drives both income
    and buying behavior.

EDUCATION 6. Literacy rates are increasing in
developing countries most rapidly in younger age
cohorts. 7. Education levels are generally
increasing most rapidly for the young
divergence is a problem. 8. Computer literacy is
generally increasing most rapidly for the young
the "digital divide" is increasing.
35
Global Literacy Rate Trends
SOURCE UNESCO
36
Global Literacy Trends China
Source US Census Bureau International Data Base
37
The Digital Divide in the U.S.
  • 61.6 of those with college degrees now use the
    Internet, while only 6.6 of those with an
    elementary school education or less use the
    Internet. The "digital divide" for Internet use
    between those at highest and lowest education
    levels widened by 25 from 1997 to 1998. Those
    with college degrees or higher are ten times more
    likely to have Internet access at work as persons
    with only some high school education.
  • A significant majority of Americans (58.9)
    making over 75,000 frequent the Internet from
    any location, many fewer persons (16.0) at the
    lower end of the payscale (5,000-10,000) use
    the Internet. The "digital divide" for home
    Internet access between those at the highest and
    lowest income levels widened 29 from 1997 to
    1998.

SOURCE US Dept. of Commerce Report, 1999
38
The Digital Divide Is Growing
Internet access
Computer in home
SOURCE US Dept. of Commerce Report, 1999
39
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsThe Digital
Divide
40
Global Demographic Trends Implications for
Marketing Strategy
EDUCATION 6. Literacy rates are increasing in
developing countries most rapidly in younger age
cohorts. 7. Education levels are generally
increasing most rapidly for the young
divergence is a problem. 8. Computer literacy is
generally increasing most rapidly for the young
the "digital divide" is increasing.
  • What markets are knowledge-sensitive?
  • Will consumer sophistication drive changes in the
    marketplace?
  • Will educational polarization and the digital
    divide increase or decrease within countries and
    regions?

41
Global Demographic Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • AGE
  • 1. In economically developed countries, "baby
    booms" are "graying" and "echo booms" are
    emerging.
  • 2. In developing countries, youth segments are
    large, but total population is "graying," too ...
  • 3. ...because birth rates are generally dropping
    and life expectancy is generally increasing
    everywhere most rapidly in developing countries.
  • INCOME
  • 4. Income is generally increasing everywhere a
    large "middle class" is emerging in developing
    countries, but setbacks are frequent.
  • 5. Both convergence and divergence (or
    polarization) are frequently seen between and
    within countries.
  • EDUCATION
  • 6. Literacy rates are increasing in developing
    countries most rapidly in younger age cohorts.
  • 7. Education levels are generally increasing
    most rapidly for the young divergence is a
    problem.
  • 8. Computer literacy is generally increasing
    most rapidly for the young the "digital divide"
    is increasing.
  • DIVERSITY
  • 9. Gender differences are diminishing in most
    developed and developing countries.
  • 10. Ethnic diversity is increasing in most
    developed and developing countries.

42
Customer Trends and Marketing Strategy
43
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44
Customer Trends and Marketing Strategy
What trends are most important in your
industry? What are your strategic options?
  • RIDE THE WAVE Change marketing strategies to
    follow current customers and target new segments.
  • WEATHER THE STORM Maintain and apply core
    marketing competencies in the segments that value
    them, abandon customers that leave your niche and
    acquire customers that enter it.
  • FAN THE FLAMES Change marketing strategies to
    accelerate the behaviors that accompany
    demographic trends, abandon current customers, if
    necessary, in order "create" new ones.

45
Full-time students enrolled in colleges,
universities, and other tertiary institutions (
of persons under 29,1975-95)
Source OECD Database.
46
Customer Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • RIDE THE WAVE Change marketing strategies to
    follow current customers and target new segments.
  • WEATHER THE STORM Maintain and apply core
    marketing competencies in the segments that value
    them, abandon customers that leave your niche and
    acquire customers that enter it.
  • FAN THE FLAMES Change marketing strategies to
    accelerate the behaviors that accompany
    demographic trends, abandon current customers, if
    necessary, in order "create" new ones.

Environment Health/Fitness On-line Info
Explosion RIDE THE WAVE PG White wine USA
Today, CNN (late 70s) WEATHER THE STORM
combustion Liquor Encyclopedia
Britannica engine Merrill Lynch FAN THE
FLAMES Green Mountain Taylor California AOL,
Schwab Energy (Coca-Cola) Ameritrade,
IBM, Microsoft, ...
47
(No Transcript)
48
Customer Trends and Marketing Strategy
  • RIDE THE WAVE Change marketing strategies to
    follow current customers and target new segments.
  • WEATHER THE STORM Maintain and apply core
    marketing competencies in the segments that value
    them, abandon customers that leave your niche and
    acquire customers that enter it.
  • FAN THE FLAMES Change marketing strategies to
    accelerate the behaviors that accompany
    demographic trends, abandon current customers, if
    necessary, in order "create" new ones.

49
Emerging Technologies Forecasts2003 to 2008 (The
Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Prob- Demand Date Category Technolog
y Prediction ability ( mil) 2003 Infotech-Info
Serv. Entertainment on demand commercially
available 84 90 2004 Infotech-Info
Serv. Videoconferencing routinely
used 83 44 2005 Infotech-Hardware PCs w/
interactive TV commercially available 84 111 200
6 Environment CFCs are replaced majority
replaced 77 52 2006 Infotech-Hardware Ent.
center w/ interactive TV commercially
available 83 109 2006 Infotech-Hardware Advanced
data storage standard on PCs 75 44 2006 Infotech-
Comm. Personsal comm. sys. 10 market
share 56 42 2006 Infotech-Comm. Standard digital
protocol 80 in ICs 70 70 2006 Infotech-Info
Serv. Distance learning commonly
used 78 41 2006 Transportation Hybrid
elec/combust vehicles commercially
available 69 87 2007 Infotech-Software Modular
software majority of production 72 47 2007 Infote
ch-Software Sensory recognition commercially
available 73 34 2007 Infotech-Comm. Groupware
systems routinely used 75 33 2007 Medicine Self-c
are info systems commonly used 82 87 2008 Enviro
nment Household waste 50 recycled 74 53 2008 Far
ming Food Genetically produced food routinely
used 75 67 2008 Infotech-Hardware PDAs majority
of people 75 54 2008 Infotech-Hardware Parallel
processing commonly used (30) 80 64 2008 Infotec
h-Comm. Information superhighway 80 access in
ICs 78 74
50
Emerging Technologies Forecasts2009 to 2013 (The
Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Prob- Demand Date Category Technolog
y Prediction ability ( mil) 2009 Infotech-Softwar
e Intelligent agents routinely used 79 28 2009 In
fotech-Software Ubiquitous processors in common
objects 75 32 2009 Infotech-Comm. Broadband
networks majority of homes/offices 70 103 2009 In
fotech-Info Serv. Electronic banking principle
means of com. 70 69 2009 Medicine Holistic
health care OK by med. community 61 55 2010 Ener
gy Alternative energy sources 10 of energy
use 77 46 2010 Environment "Green"
manufacturing adopted by most mfrs. 73 90 2010 In
fotech-Software Experts systems routine
use 72 59 2011 Transportation Electric
cars commonly avail. (30) 70 102 2011 Energy Org
anic energy sources use is significant
(10) 60 43 2011 Mfr. Robotics Mass
customization commonly avail. (30) 73 330 2011 M
aterials "Buckyballs" used in new
materials 59 20 2012 Farming Food Farm
chemicals drop 50 reduction 60 27 2012 Infotech-
Software Language translation commercially
available 65 41 2012 Infotech-Software Machine
learning commonly available 67 31 2012 Mfr.
Robotics Computer integrated mfr. 80 of
factories 73 124 2013 Infotech-Info
Serv. Online publishing majority of
books/pubs 60 66 2013 Materials Recycled
materials in cars 50 use plastic
comp. 58 51 2013 Medicine Gene therapy routinely
used 63 63 2013 Medicine Major disease
cured cure is found 58 116
51
Emerging Technologies Forecasts2014 to 2016 (The
Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Prob- Demand Date Category Technolog
y Prediction ability ( mil) 2014 Farming
Food Aquaculture majority of seafood 56 52 2014 I
nfotech-Hardware Optical computers commercially
available 64 67 2014 Materials Ceramic
engines mass-produced 58 49 2014 Medicine Compute
rized vision commercially available 56 32 2015 E
nvironment Industrial ecology used by majority of
mfrs. 55 48 2015 Farming Food Alternative/organ
ic farming majority in ICs 57 76 2015 Farming
Food Precision farming commonly used
(30) 69 71 2015 Farming Food Hydroponic
produce commonly used (30) 53 40 2015 Infotech-S
oftware Neural networks commonly used
(30) 61 28 2015 Mfr. Robotics Factory jobs
decline 10 due to automation 67 150 2015 Materia
ls Superconducting materials commonly used
(30) 56 43 2016 Energy Energy
efficiency improves by 50 61 49 2016 Environment
Recycled goods majority of goods 66 126 2016 Env
ironment Fossil fuels/greenhouse gas 50
reduction 59 46 2016 Mfr. Robotics Sophisticate
d robots commercially available 64 130 2016 Mfr.
Robotics Nanotechnology commercially
available 66 31 2016 Materials Material
composites replaces 50 of metals 53 100 2016 Tra
nsportation Fuel-cell cars commonly avail.
(30) 58 116 2016 Transportation Intelligent
transportation commonly used (30) 58 90
52
Emerging Technologies Forecasts2017 to 2020 (The
Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Prob- Demand Date Category Technolog
y Prediction ability ( mil) 2017 Energy Fuel
cells commonly used (30) 53 61 2017 Infotech-Har
dware Biochips commercially available 54 58 2017
Transportation High-speed trains most major
cities in ICs 58 120 2018 Infotech-Info
Serv. Electronic sales 50 of all goods in
US 55 208 2018 Medicine Genetically produced
organs routinely used 53 63 2018 Space New
materials developed in space only 57 21 2018 Tran
sportation Automated highways commonly used
(30) 55 70 2019 Infotech-Info
Serv. Telecommuting 80 of employees 56 468 2019
Medicine Synthetic body parts routinely
used 58 68 2019 Space Private space
ventures majority of launches 62 60 2020 Energy
Fission power 50 of electricity 46 26 2020 Energ
y Hydrogen energy routinely used 50 102 2020 Farm
ing Food Farm automation commonly used
(30) 60 82 2020 Farming Food Urban
greenhouses commonly used (30) 53 55 2020 Medici
ne Genetic eng. of children routinely used 53 21
53
Emerging Technologies Forecasts2021 and Beyond
(The Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Prob- Demand Date Category Technolog
y Prediction ability ( mil) 2022 Farming
Food Artificial foods commonly used
(30) 39 75 2023 Transportation Clustered
communities reduce transport needs 53 85 2024 Tr
ansportation Personal rapid transit most metro
areas 43 62 2025 Transportation Hypersonic
planes majority transoceanic flts. 48 91 2026 En
ergy Fusion power used commercially 50 113 2026 M
aterials Intelligent materials routinely
used 57 66 2027 Materials Self-assembling
materials routinely used 56 82 2028 Space Perman
ent moon base established 55 32 2037 Space Manne
d mission to Mars completed 59 30 2042 Space Ste
llar exploration launched 51 47 2049 Space Extra
terrestrial contact w/ intelligent
life 33 45 2062 Space Near-light speed
travel 80 light speed 43 75
54
Emerging Technologies ForecastsNPV Top Quartile
(The Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Exp. NPV Date Category Technology Pr
ediction Value (10) Prob Dmd 2011 Mfr.
Robotics Mass customization commonly avail.
(30) 241 68 73 330 2003 Infotech-
Serv. Entertainment on demand commercially
available 76 50 84 90 2005 Infotech-Hardw PCs w/
interactive TV commercially available 93 50 84 11
1 2006 Infotech-Hardw Ent. center w/ interact.
TV commercially available 90 43 83 109 2019 Infot
ech- Serv. Telecommuting 80 of
employees 262 32 56 468 2007 Medicine Self-care
info systems commonly used 71 31 82 87 2006 Trans
portation Hybrid elec/combust veh commercially
available 60 29 69 87 2009 Infotech-Comm. Broadba
nd networks majority of homes/offices 72 25 70 10
3 2006 Infotech-Comm. Standard digital
protocol 80 in ICs 49 23 70 70 2012 Mfr.
Robotics Computer integrated mfr. 80 of
factories 91 23 73 124 2008 Infotech-Comm. Inform
ation superhighway 80 access in
ICs 58 22 78 74 2004 Infotech-
Serv. Videoconferencing routinely
used 37 22 83 44 2010 Environment "Green"
manufacturing adopted by most mfrs. 66 21 73 90 2
011 Transportation Electric cars commonly avail.
(30) 71 20 70 102 2008 Infotech-Hardw Parallel
processing commonly used (30) 51 20 80 64 2008 F
arming Food Genetically produced food routinely
used 50 19 75 67 2006 Environment CFCs are
replaced majority replaced 40 19 77 52 2015 Mfr.
Robotics Factory jobs decline 10 due to
automation 101 19 67 150 2009 Infotech-
Serv. Electronic banking principle means of
com. 48 17 70 69 2006 Infotech-Hardw Advanced
data storage standard on PCs 33 16 75 44 2008 Inf
otech-Hardw PDAs majority of people 41 16 75 54

55
Emerging Technologies ForecastsNPV 2nd Quartile
(The Futurist, 1997)
Predicted Exp. NPV Date Category Technology Pr
ediction Value (10) Prob Dmd 2018 Infotech-Serv.
Electronic sales 50 of all goods in
US 114 15 55 208 2013 Medicine Major disease
cured cure is found 67 15 58 116 2006 Infotech-
Serv. Distance learning commonly
used 32 15 78 41 2008 Environment Household
waste 50 recycled 39 15 74 53 2007 Infotech-Soft
w Modular software majority of production 34 15 72
47 2016 Mfr. Robotics Sophisticated
robots commercially available 83 14 64 130 2016 E
nvironment Recycled goods majority of
goods 83 14 66 126 2010 Infotech-Softw Experts
systems routine use 42 13 72 59 2009 Medicine Hol
istic health care OK by med. community 34 12 61 5
5 2006 Infotech-Comm. Personsal comm. sys. 10
market share 24 11 56 42 2016 Transportation Fuel
-cell cars commonly avail. (30) 67 11 58 116 201
0 Energy Alternative energy sources 10 of energy
use 35 11 77 46 2007 Infotech-Softw Sensory
recognition commercially available 25 11 73 34 20
07 Infotech-Comm. Groupware systems routinely
used 25 11 75 33 2017 Transportation High-speed
trains most major cities in ICs 70 10 58 120 2013
Medicine Gene therapy routinely
used 40 9 63 63 2015 Farming Food Precision
farming commonly used (30) 49 9 69 71 2013 Infot
ech- Serv. Online publishing majority of
books/pubs 40 9 60 66 2016 Materials Material
composites replaces 50 of metals 53 9 53 100 201
4 Infotech-Hardw Optical computers commercially
available 43 9 64 67 2016 Transportation Intellig
ent transportation commonly used
(30) 52 9 58 90
56
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57
A Demographic "Snapshot" of the United StatesA
Cluster Analysis of Age/Income/Education Groups
Mainstream This group is close to the "average
American" for most purchase behavior. Because
they are older, they are more likely to be
retired, have grandchildren, be in poor health,
and use Medicare.
Downscale This group is well below the average
in buying most products and services, including
cars, computer hardware and software, financial
services, health and life insurance, and travel.
They are impulsive buyers and change brands
often. They rent rather than own their homes and
often have children (and others) in the
household. They are twice as likely as the
average American to use Medicaid.
  • Cluster analysis based on data published by
    Simmons Marketing Research Bureau, 1997 236
    product, media, and lifestyle variables, 27
    demographic groups)

58
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsHappiness
SOURCE Simmons Marketing Research Bureau, 1997
59
A Demographic "Snapshot" of the United StatesA
Cluster Analysis of Age/Income/Education Groups
The "Westernization" Hypothesis Consumer
behavior in developing economies comes to
resemble that of developed economies and
cross-cultural differences diminish.
  • Cluster analysis based on data published by
    Simmons Marketing Research Bureau, 1997 236
    product, media, and lifestyle variables, 27
    demographic groups)

60
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsCredit Cards
SOURCE Simmons Marketing Research Bureau, 1997
61
US Age/Income/Education SegmentsInsurance
SOURCE Simmons Marketing Research Bureau, 1997
62
(No Transcript)
63
World Development Report 2000/2001(www.worldbank.
org)
64
Relative earnings of persons aged 25-64 with
income from employment (upper secondary education
100, 1995)
Source OECD Database.
65
How important are the following trends in your
industry?
  • Importance Most
  • Not Somewhat Very Most Very
  • Industry Trends and Emerging Technologies
  • Infotech 0 9 58 33 91
  • Biotech 59 16 6 19 25
  • Other Technologies 27 36 24 12 36
  • Environmental Issues 9 39 36 15 52
  • Globalization 3 9 39 48 88
  • Consumer Trends
  • Age 9 12 39 39 79
  • Income 0 30 45 24 70
  • Education 12 24 45 18 64
  • Diversity 21 42 30 6 36
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