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Energy Dependence and CO2: NearestTerm Opportunities for a Dramatic Reduction

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... step to electric. New type fuel cell cars. Methanol production. Autonomous ... Electric Cars Cleanest, most efficient, but needs R&D; can't yet beat C; new ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Energy Dependence and CO2: NearestTerm Opportunities for a Dramatic Reduction


1
Energy Dependence and CO2 Nearest-Term
Opportunitiesfor a Dramatic Reduction
  • Drs. Paul J. Werbos and James A. Momoh
  • NSF, IEEE, ACUNU/MP, Howard U.
  • -- presenting personal, not official, views
  • PJW 80s EIA/DOE lead analyst for
  • long-term energy futures

pwerbos_at_nsf.gov
  • Government public domain These slides may be
    copied, posted, or distributed freely, so long as
  • they are kept together, including this notice.

2
National Science Foundation
Engineering Directorate
Computer Info. Science Directorate
ECS
IIS
EPDT Chips, Optics, Etc.
Control, Networks and Computational Intelligence
Robotics
AI
Information Technology Research (ITR)
3
MegaChallenges for the 21st Century ECS Role
  • Key Challenges To Basic Scientific Understanding
  • How to build/understand real Intelligent Systems?
    (computational intelligence)
  • How does the Universe work? (Quantum...)
  • What is Life? (QSB quantitative biotechnology)
  • Key Broader Challenges to Humanity
  • Sustainable growth on earth
  • Cost-effective sustainable space settlement
  • Human potential

4
Some budget numbers for Fiscal Years 2003, 2004
  • Total Engineering Directorate540m, 565m
  • Total Electrical and Communication Systems (ECS)
    73m, 75m
  • Available for new awards in ECS core programs
    36m, 35m
  • Success rates for regular unsolicited proposals
    in ECS core programs 24, 11

5
www.stateofthefuture.org
CD-ROM Energy Paper
6
When Oil and Gas Get Too Costly, Economically or
Politically
  • How do we keep our cars running?
  • Where does the new fuel or electricity come from?
    Sources? Distribution?
  • Rapid growth in imports of LNG
  • Serious hope of avoiding a crisis of dependency
    in time but no guarantee

7
HOW MUCH TO REDUCE CO2,WHEN?
Kyoto Approach Too little
The Purist Way True H2 , Too late
The Middle Way 6-fold goal 30 years
Carbon Dioxide Reduction
2004 2030 2100
8
TECHNICAL PILLARS OF THE MIDDLE WAY
INDEPENDENT SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY
INDEPENDENT SUSTAINABLE CAR FUELS
TRULY INTELLIGENT POWER GRID
  • Flexible fuel (e.g. Stirling)
  • Plug-in hybrid step to electric
  • New type fuel cell cars
  • Methanol production
  • Autonomous
  • Adaptive
  • Cyber Control
  • MEMS, GPS
  • Cleanest coal IGCC/sequest.
  • Solar farms
  • Space solar
  • Also Team B?

9
The chicken and egg problemwhich comes first?
H2 fuel , H2 car?
  • Would you buy a car that only runs on H2 before
    your local gas station carries H2? Are PR
    stations enough?
  • Would you invest trillion in gas stations and
    pipelines before people have H2 cars?
  • Technically nonconvexity problem also high
    costs

10
Long-Term Clean Alternatives to Carrying H2 in
Your Car Tank
  • Hydrogen Carriers proven tested fuels that
    easily release hydrogen for use on-board a car
  • Methanol, our best hope (next slide)
  • Ammonia other carbon-free fuels (but
    chickenegg problem again)
  • Electric Cars Cleanest, most efficient, but
    needs RD cant yet beat C new batteries in lab
    exciting, but not yet PLUG-IN HYBRIDS COULD GET
    US THERE.
  • Thermal Batteries (Long-term option if Stirling
    grows)

11
What IS Methanol?
H
H
H
C
H
C
H
H
H
C
H
H
C
H
H
H
O
Methane Natural Gas Scarce as Oil Needs Special
Tank
O
H
H
Methanol Good H Carrier Can Be Bioliquid Or From
Coal, Gas
Ethanol e.g From Corn Drinkable
12
Best Hope for Fuel Cell Cars
  • Carry methanol in the gas tank
  • Small steam reformers (proven known technology)
    to convert methanol to hydrogen in car
  • Carbon-tolerant alkaline fuel cell
  • Unlike PEM fuel cell, no peroxide loss of energy
    and erosion can be made cheaper
  • Realistic hope of twice the miles/Btu of hybrids
  • Recent proof of carbon tolerance both at air and
    fuel electrodes (NSF funded)
  • Can use carbon black electrodes and Jiffy Lube
    electrolyte refreshing
  • See      http//arxiv.org/abs/physics/0504130
  • Breakthru battery RD important for all hopes!

13
GEM Flexibly Fuel Vehicles (FFV)One Tank To Hold
Them All
G Gasoline
E Ethanol
M Methanol
With an FFV, you choose each day which to buy At
100-200/car, a more open competition, level
playing field, better unleash the
power of the free market 40 of new cars in
Brazil GE flexible already
14
GEM Flexibility Is Well-Established
ALCOHOL FUELS "Detroit is ready now to -- make
cars that would run on any combination of
gasoline and alcohol -- either ethanol, made from
corn or methanol, made from natural gas or coal
or even wood. Cars produce less pollution on
alcohol fuels, and they perform better, too. Let
us turn away from our dependence on imported oil
to domestic products -- corn, natural gas, and
coal -- and look for energy not just from the
Middle East but from the Middle West."
Source George Bush 1988 Campaign Brochures
www.4president.org
15
Plug-in Hybrids A Large-Scale Opportunity Here
and Now
  • FFV hybrids cut liquid fuel use 50 already.
    Plug-ins cut 50 of that.
  • Researchers have shown that (batteries)
    offering.. electric range of 32 km will yield
    50 reduction.. (IEEE Spectrum, July/05). Shown
    in working Prius.
  • Battery breakthroughs in China from 10/07, 10kwh
    batteries (larger than) cost 2,000.
    www.thunder-sky.com. Thus an extra 2,000 per car
    can cut gas dependence in half.
  • Gives economic security in case of sudden
    gasoline cutoff.

16
AREAS FOR NEEDED LEGAL REFORMS
  • EthanolMethanol Fuel flexibility (up to M85)
    should be MANDATORY in new gasoline-using cars
    from 2006/7/8. Hybrids or advanced Stirling can
    also use GEM fuel tanks easily.
  • Plug-in with gt30km range should be mandatory in
    new hybrids, and incentivized for national
    security reasons
  • Incentives and research opportunities for
    bio-methanol should be the same as for
    bioethanol, biohydrogen or better
  • Zoning rules discouraging Distributed Generation
    should be modified to simplify renewable or
    alcohol fuel use
  • Grid regulation needs to be made to fit
    "intelligence
  • Leak proof tanks in gas stations for ALL fuels.
    Tanks/pumps selling nonbiological M85 should be
    able to supply pure enough methanol for fuel cell
    cars.

17
Short-Term Benefit of FFVsto US Oil/Gas Industry
  • Outside US, cost of new methanol is 98/ton from
    remote gas (Google Canaccord methanol), much of
    which is now wasted (vented and flared).
  • For oil companies, new remote methanol plant will
    be equivalent to new proved reserves! Free market
    will supply methanol if FFVS.
  • Dont burn CH4 to electricity! There are better
    new electricity sources!
  • Near-Term RD CH4-to-Methanol small to follow
    up Catalytica, could cut cost in half

18
MAIN Sustainable Paths as Oil/Gas Run Out (i.e.
Cost More)
Nuclear
Methane
Buildings
Electricity
Space Solar
Motor Vehicles
Methanol (CH4OH)
Earth Solar
Industry
?
Coal
19
Sources Where Does the Electricity or Methanol
Come From If Not Oil/Gas?
  • Two scenarios Base-Case-Present-Trends Versus
    Real-Hope-If-We-Act-More
  • Base Case
  • Iran, China, eventually everyone builds fission
    as fast as they can. Bin Laden Construction Co.
    and its less savory competitors grow very rich,
    very fast. 4-8/kwh
  • Little guys (wind, rooftop solar, Anwar, ethanol)
    make big but dont plug half the supply-demand
    gap
  • Supply-demand gap still widens. Old coal fills
    the gap, filling half the world with barely
    survivable air (worse than Chinas cities today).
    Not so much methanol.
  • Santa Claus drowns Arctic Ice Cap Double or
    Nothing

20
Real Hope If We Work/Think Hard
  • THREE TEAM A TECHNOLOGIES
  • We know that all three CAN WORK and CAN provide
    all the worlds energy needs cleanly
  • IGCC (Cool Water/Texaco/Eastmann/GE) Clean Coal
    Technology, Good for carbon sequestration,
    efficiency, wants to produce electricity and
    methanol together
  • solar farms on earth with mirror or lenses but
    breakthru needed on cost, new workshops?
  • Space solar power new designs from
    NASA-NSF-EPRI
  • Need better (agile, international?) funding
    vehicle for high risk breakthrough TEAM B hopes,
    like advanced large-scale biomethanol
    biotechnology.

21
Some Issues Re Earth Solar
  • DOE 10-year targets 14/kwh PV, intermittent
    power, cant compete with coal 4 baseload. Cost
    of balance of system is stubborn with solar
    farms. Even worse for low efficiency (now 3)
    nano-based PVs this decade.
  • Sandia has projected 6/kwh using mirrors and
    advanced Stirling to convert heat to electricity.
    But we dont yet have the mirrors and
    improvements seem slow.
  • Cost breakthrough in mirrors may be possible,
    e.g. as spinoff of NASA work on flexible
    self-assembling lenses to focus light for space
    use. But options have yet to be scoped out and
    explored systematically. Workshops?
  • All DG (solar, biomass, wind) Hayes says
    hookups are the real barrier. Solution
    intelligent grid and zoning changes and improved
    advanced Stirling (industry)

22
NSF-NASA Workshop on Learning/Robotics For
Cheaper (Competitive) Solar Power
See NSF 02-098 at www.nsf.gov URLs Joint funding
led by Werbos/NSF Mankins/NASA
23
Some Outcomes
  • 98 proposals, 21 million recommended after tough
    merit review, 3 million funded
  • Previous NASA SERT program first well-validated
    designs but 17/kwh even assuming 200/lb
    earth-to-LEO (Low Earth Orbit)
  • Now 4 designs may achieve cost breakthrus, merit
    follow-up. One hybrid light-to-light laser with
    D-D inertial fusion and microwave beaming might
    get lt1/kwh for kwh to receiver (rectenna).
  • Little of Texas AM claims he can demo ability to
    avoid communications interference.
  • Near-term vehicle design 1st wi real hope
    lt200/lb

24
Four New Lo-Cost SSP Designs
  • Mankins new version of solar cells to
    electricity to microwave
  • Fork/Werbos (TIM 2002) spinal cord laser, light
    lenses/mirrors to light-to-light laser to earth
  • Werbos solar/fusion hybrid lenses, laser, D-D
    pellets
  • Nonterrestrial materials (NTM)
  • Idea not new Gerard ONeill Criswell still
    vital
  • Engineering needs major fleshing out, testing,
    multiple iterations etc. Lower TRL than the
    others, but high potential and relevance to
    Presidents Program
  • All designs require a flexible decision theory
    vision
  • Need honesty and toughness about uncertainty to
    make it real

25
Key Needs for Space Solar
  • Partnership with NASA
  • New Big Laser (2/4 cheap ways)
  • Affordable launch (follow-on to ECS-funded plasma
    hypersonics requires US proprietary technology,
    10-15 billion)
  • Improved Robotics REQUIRES MORE USE OF
    COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE!!! (NSF/DARPA??)
  • Cheaper rectennas PES/MTT partnership

26
Plasma Hypersonics ANSER/Chase NSF
REDUCED DRAG AAC 1st Ganguly (APS00)shows
it should work gtMach 4, 100K feet allows Boeing
RAS/V
MHD Acceleration
Ebeam or ....
MHD Energy Extraction
Best plasma theory predicts new Princeton
design will allow ramjets to reach Mach 12, scram
much more... Ames and Chase (ANSER) whole-system
SSTO designs..
27
Unexpected Outcome Near-Term DesignHas Passed
Tough Peer Review, Scrutiny
  • Rocketplane RLV can be built now for near-term
    use, essential to use/enhancement of endangered
    off-the-shelf legacy technology needed for more
    advanced high-efficiency concepts
  • Need Big vehicle to minimize /lb (initial
    200/lb REAL)
  • - 1.2 million pounds, 10-15 billion, not a
    small business
  • Horizontal takeoff essential for aircraft
    operations (see also
  • Mueller 60s) and for big-wing lower heat
    load on re-entry
  • Design allows use of formerly black hot
    structures technology
  • instead of flaky tiles, ablative structures,
    hard-to-control slush
  • Project chart 4 years, AF mission model enough
    for profit

28
Human mentors robot and then robot improves skill
Learning allowed robot to quickly learn to
imitate human, and then improve agile movements
(tennis strokes). Learning many agile movements
quickly will be crucial to enabling gt80 robotic
assembly in space.
Schaal, Atkeson NSF ITR project
29
Distribution and Grids Upgrading the Middle is
As Important As Cars And Sources!
Nuclear
Buildings
Electricity
Space Solar
Motor Vehicles
Methanol (CH4OH)
Earth Solar
Industry
?
Coal
Successful Transition Will Require An Intelligent
Electric Power Grid
30
Dynamic Stochastic Optimal Power Flow (DSOPF)
How to Integrate the Nervous System of
Electricity
  • DSOPF02 started from EPRI question can we
    optimally manageplan the whole grid as one
    system, with foresight, etc.?
  • Closest past precedent Momohs OPF integrates
    optimizes many grid functions but
    deterministic and without foresight. UPGRADE!
  • ADP math required to add foresight and
    stochastics, critical
    to more complete integration.

31
Beyond Bellman Learning Approximation for
Optimal Management of Larger Complex Systems
  • Basic thrust is scientific. Bellman gives exact
    optima for 1 or 2 continuous state vars. New work
    allows 50-100 (thousands sometimes). Goal is to
    scale up in space and time -- the math we need to
    know to know how brains do it. And unify the
    recent progress.
  • Low lying fruit -- missile interception,
    vehicle/engine control, strategic games
  • New book from ADP02 workshop in Mexico
    www.eas.asu.edu/nsfadp (IEEE Press, 2004, Si et
    al eds)

32
Emerging Ways to Get Closer to Brain-Like Systems
  • IEEE Computational Intelligence (CI) Society, new
    to 2004, about 2000 people in meetings.
  • Central goal end-to-end learning from sensors
    to actuators to maximize performance of plant
    over future, with general-purpose learning
    ability.
  • This is DARPAs new cogno in the new
    nano-info-bio-cogno convergence
  • This is end-to-end cyberinfrastructure
  • See hot link at bottom of www.eng.nsf.gov/ecs
  • Whats new is a path to make it real

33
Intelligent Grid Requires Intelligence But Also
Hardware
  • Brain-like intelligence is embodied intelligence
    sensors, actuators and feedback on performance
    are essential parts of the new designs.
  • Reduce world CH4 to kwh sell and upgrade
    Brazils superior transmission technology
    (Pilotto, Watanabe could save California
    billions quickly, allow cheap electricity from
    underused Utah coal plants)
  • EPRI plan to add more communications, sensors,
    intelligent appliances (e.g. car chargers to turn
    on at quiet times at night, to exploit times of
    strong wind)
  • Interface of intelligent grid with human users,
    markets and regulations. (www.pserc.cornell.edu
    EPNES at www.nsf.gov.)
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