The Impact of Welfare Reform in North Carolina

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The Impact of Welfare Reform in North Carolina

by Dean Duncan UNC-CH School of Social
Work October 4, 2001
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The Impact of Welfare Reform in North Carolina

• The analysis is based on a project funded by the
  North Carolina Division of Social Services.
• It uses a longitudinal database that tracks the
  experiences of more than 372,000 families and
  867,000 individuals that have received assistance.

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Changes in the Work First Caseload Since 1995
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Rate of Exit from Work First for Multiple Entry
Cohorts
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Individuals Accumulating 24 Months on the Time
Clock and Leaving
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The Number of Months Families Receive Work First
Benefits
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Changes in the Two-Parent Caseload Over Time
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The Work First Child Only Caseload
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Child Only Cases as a Percentage of the Caseload
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(No Transcript)
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Changes in Electing County Caseloads
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Changes in Electing County Caseloads Macon County
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Changes in Work First Case Openings and Closings
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Patterns of Work First Applications
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Families Provided Work First Diversion Assistance
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Earnings After Leaving Work First (by Entry
Cohort)
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Median Earnings After Leaving Work First (by
Entry Cohort)
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Education Level of Adults Beginning Spells on
Work First
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Earnings After Leaving Work First (For Those With
Earnings)
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The Number of Family Cap Children in Work First
Families
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60- Month Time Limit

• About 270 individuals will meet exhaust their 60
  month time limit in December 2001.
• Their average age is 38.
• 95 are female.
• 54 are African-American 37 are Caucasian.
• Most have only one child on Work First.

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Has Welfare Reform Worked?

• Caseloads have dropped.
• Individuals have moved into jobs but at about the
  same rate.
• Average earnings have remained stable.
• There has not been an increase in child only
  cases.

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Has Welfare Reform Worked?

• The two-parent caseload has dropped.
• One of the largest impacts on the caseload has
  been First Stop which appears to have decreased
  case openings.
• The caseload appears to be leveling off.

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Has Welfare Reform Worked?

• There does not appear to be an increase in case
  openings in the Work First caseload associated
  with the economy.
• One possible economic impact appears to be a
  decrease in the number of case closings.

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Has Welfare Reform Worked?

• The website address is
• ssw.unc.edu/workfirst