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Howard Rosenbaum hrosenbaindiana.edu

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1993: White House is on-line: www.whitehouse. ... Canada/USA 161.31 million. Latin America 15.26 million ... Some 1.5 million pages added to the web each day ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Howard Rosenbaum hrosenbaindiana.edu


1
Indiana Library Federation Reference Division
Fall Conference Reference 2001The
world, the web, and the milky way
The Web for the Next Millennium
Howard Rosenbaum hrosenba_at_indiana.edu Sc
hool of Library and Information Science Center
for Social Informatics
Indiana University November 9, 2000
http//www.slis.indiana.edu/hrosenba/www/Pres/ilfr
ef00/
2
I. Where we have been What the wizards who
stayed up late wrought Four
stages of the net II. Where we are now
The current state of networking An
archeology of the web III. Where we are
going Technical changes
Social changes Libraries - the next
generation
3
I. Where we have been What the wizards who
stayed up late wrought
1969 Four nodes on the ARPA NETWORK University
of California Los Angeles
University of California Santa Barbara
University of Utah Stanford Research
Institute
http//www.cybergeography.org/atlas/historical.htm
l
4
ARPANET 1971
Reaches coast to coast Links researchers at
universities with strong computer science
departments Primary use is RD
http//www.cybergeography.org/atlas/historical.htm
l
5
Milestones 1969 First packets sent by Charley
Kline at UCLA as he tried logging into SRI
This attempt crashed the system as the letter G
of LOGIN was entered. (10/29) 1970 First
cross-country link installed by ATT between
UCLA and BBN at 56kbps 1973 First trans-oceanic
link to the UK 1975 The first mailing
list 1976 First email sent by royalty Queen
Elizabeth II 1979 USENET created First MUD
goes online Kevin MacKenzie uses ) in email
6
ARPANET 1980
DARPAs decisions to make TCP/IP open source and
require it to connect greatly increased the
number of networks on ARPANET
http//www.cybergeography.org/atlas/historical.htm
l
7
Milestones 1981 BITNET created 1983 Name
server developed at U of Wisconsin ARPANET
split into ARPANET and MILNET 1984 Domain Name
System (DNS) introduced Number of hosts
breaks 1,000 JUNET, JANET established
(Japan, UK) 1986 NSFNET created (backbone speed
of 56Kbps) Cleveland Freenet comes on-line
10/16 1988 William Morriss worm shuts down
10 of the net Internet Relay Chat (IRC)
developed by Jarkko Oikarinen
8
Tim Berners-Lees vision of the generic
components of the web in 1989
http//www.w3.org/History/1989/proposal.html
9
Tim Berners-Lees vision of the basic
architecture of the web in 1989
http//www.w3.org/History/1989/proposal.html
10
Milestones 1989 Number of hosts breaks 100,000
First relays between commercial networks and
the net MCI Mail through the Corporation for
the National Research Initiative and
Compuserve through OSU 1990 ARPANET is
decommissioned Electronic Frontier Foundation
(EFF) is founded Archie, Hytelnet
released 1991 WAIS, Gopher, PGP released
NSFNET backbone upgraded to T3 (44.736Mbps)
1992 Number of hosts breaks 1,000,000
First MBONE audio multicast (March) and video
multicast (November)
11
Donna Cox and Robert Pattersons NCSA
Visualization Study of the NSFNET in 1991
http//www.ncsa.uiuc.edu/SCMS/DigLib/text/technolo
gy/Visualization-Study-NSFNET-Cox.html
12
John Decembers view of the internet in 1992
http//www.cybergeography.org/atlas/conceptual.htm
l
13
Milestones 1993 White House is on-line
www.whitehouse.gov/ Mosaic released
Gopher's growth is 997 WWW annual growth rate
is 341,634 1994 First shopping malls on the
net First Virtual, the first cyberbank,
opens Top 10 domains com, edu, uk, gov, de,
ca, mil, au, org, net 1995 NSFNET reverts to
a research network Main US backbone traffic
routed through commercial network
providers Sun launches JAVA on 5/23
14
Stephen G. Eick and colleagues at Bell
Laboratories Visualization and analysis of
Internet traffic flows 1993
http//www.cybergeography.org/atlas/geographic.htm
l
15
Milestones 1995 RealAudio lets us hear the web
Netscapes IPO 1996 Browsers wars new
releases are made quarterly Restrictions on
net use around the world 1997 Domain name
business.com sold for US150,000 1998
Network Solutions registers 2 millionth domain -
5/4 CDA II and a ban on Net taxes signed into
US law 1999 First Internet Bank of Indiana,
opens on 2/22 Internet2 development speeds
up Abilene NOC at IUPUI
16
Libraries and the net St. Joseph County Public
Library is the first US public library on the
Web the 2nd worldwide - 3/14/94 http//www.sjcpl
.lib.in.us/ There are 797 libraries on the St.
Joseph County Public Library list of library
web servers http//sjcpl.lib.in.us/PublicLibrarie
s/PubLibSrvsGpherWWW.htmlwwwsrv GoMLink, the
1st Virtual WWW Library on the net (2/1993)
using gopher software, http//mlink.lib.umich.e
du The Internet Public Library - 1st Virtual WWW
Public Library on the net http//ipl.sils.umich
.edu/index.text.html
17
Four stages of the net Stage 1 Research and
development From the mid 1960s until
1987 Primary users academic and government
researchers It was a command line internet Stage
2 Public access From 1987-1992 Commercial
networks, freenets access the net through
gateways The wired public explores the net
18
Stage 3 Growth of the web From
1992-1995 Development of HTTP ansd release of a
graphical browser (Mosaic) Netscape, AOL, and
Microsoft lay the groundwork for a public
internet Stage 4 The net goes to work and
suffers growing pains From 1995- The ecommerce
land grab and shakeout Governmental
attention The beginnings of the pervasive net?
19
I. Where we have been What the wizards who
stayed up late wrought Four
stages of the net II. Where we are now
The current state of networking An
archeology of the web III. Where we are
going Technical changes
Social changes Libraries - the next
generation
20
II. Where we are now The current state of
networking
World total 377.65 million Africa 3.10
million Asia/Pacific 89.68 million Europe
105.89 million Middle East 2.40
million Canada/USA 161.31 million Latin America
15.26 million
http//www.nua.ie/surveys/how_many_online/index.ht
ml
21
The rate of growth has not slowed appreciably
1999
Growth/day World population 5,996,708,634
213,88 Web pages 1,500,000,000 1,917,808 Web
access devices 221,100,000
147,671 Hosts 72,398,092
79,913 Domain names 8,100,000
12,981 Unique web sites 3,649,000
4,442
http//www.thestandard.com/powerpoint/030600met5_t
heweb2.ppt
22
The world-wide wait An estimated 2.5 billion
hours were wasted online in 1998 as people
waited for pages to download Estimated 2
billion lost revenues due to abandoned
transactions The global net Over 50 of the
online community is outside the US English text
will not be understood by 35 of all users
online today http//www.internetindicators.com/
global.html Some 1.5 million pages added to
the web each day 50 of all traffic goes to the
top 900 Web sites http//www.internetvalley.com/i
ntvalstat.html
23
More...
http//www.thestandard.com/powerpoint/030600met5_t
heweb2.ppt
24
98 of the words in Webster's English Dictionary
have been registered as domain names http//new-w
ebsite.openmarket.com/intindex/00-06.htm The
publicly indexable web is estimated at 800
million pages, 6 terabytes of text data on 2.8
million servers 2/99 (Lawrence and Giles,
1999) Search engine coverage as a percentage of
800 million pages
Northern Light 16.0 AltaVista 15.5 Snap
15.5, HotBot 11.3 MSN Search 8.5
Infoseek 8.0 Google 7.8 Yahoo 7.4 Excite
5.6 Lycos 2.5 EuroSeek 2.2
http//www.notess.com/search/stats/nature99.shtml
25
Growth of the web 18,000,000 web sites June 2000
http//www.isoc.org/zakon/Internet/History/HIT.htm
l
26
of U.S. Persons using the net at home by type
of use
http//www.ntia.doc.gov/ntiahome/fttn99/charts.htm
l
27
Kids on the net
http//www.emarketer.com/estats/061499_kids.html
28
Bertot and McClures 2000 Internet Connectivity
Study Internet connectivity in public libraries
is 95.7, up from 83.6 in 1998 94.5 of public
libraries provide public net access 36.2 have
T1 (1.45mbps) service for public access
services, up from 21.9 in 1998 53.6 have gt
56kbps (direct connect) service for public
access services, up from 33.7 in 1998 35.4 of
rural outlets have gt 56kbps (direct connect)
service public access services up from 22.2 in
1998
http//www.nclis.gov/news/pr2000/plis2000.html
http//www.nclis.gov/statsurv/2000plo.pdf
29
An archeology of the web The web can be
divided into four distinct (but overlapping)
regions
Commerceweb
Personalweb
Governmentweb
Educationweb
30
Personalweb There are an estimated 400 million
personal home pages Governmentweb The Federal
and state governments want to move more of its
services online Educationweb The net is becoming
a routine part of primary and secondary
education Higher education is being
transformed Wireless campuses Librarianship
is undergoing drastic changes (throughout all
types of libraries)
31
Commerceweb Infrastructure layer Telecom
companies, ISPs, backbone carriers, last mile
companies and manufacturers of end-user
networking equipment Generated over 197
billion in revenue in 1999, an increase of 68
over 1998. Applications Infrastructure layer
Companies producing software products and
services enabling web transactions and
transaction intermediaries Consultants and
companies that design, build and maintain all
types of Web sites Grew 41 in 1999, generating
just over 101 billion
32
Intermediary layer Web-based businesses
generating revenues through advertising,
membership or subscription fees, and
commissions Pure-play Web content providers,
market makers, and market intermediaries
(travel brokers, advertising companies) Revenue
s increased 52in 1999 to 96.81 billion Commerce
layer Companies conducting web-based business
transactions Fastest-growing layer turning in a
72 increase in 1999, generating over 171
billion in revenues http//www.internetindicators
.com/the_indicators_june_00.htm
33
I. Where we have been What the wizards who
stayed up late wrought Four
stages of the net II. Where we are now
The current state of networking An
archeology of the web III. Where we are
going Technical changes
Social changes Libraries - the next
generation
34
III. Where we are going Technical
changes Broadband and digital convergence High
speed access is more accessible to more
people Resolving the last-mile problem with
cable modems, DSL, wireless Development of new
classes of wired devices PDAs, handheld
computing, ebooks Cell phones with web
access Information appliances Continuing
development of standards XHTML, XML, RDF, XQL
35
Continued development of basic web
architecture Rise of the semantic web
Developing languages for expressing information
in a machine processable form The web as a
global database (Berners Lee)
http//www.w3.org/DesignIssues/Semantic.html Movin
g services and applications to the web ASPs
provide centralized, web-based business
services Individuals move more activities to the
web Web-based email, calendars, personal
files Rise of peer-to-peer networking Sharing a
wide variety of files
36
Development of hardware and software that will
allow a more immersive web experience New forms
of interactive, multi-user entertainment Real
time chatting, video, collaborative space Use of
intelligent personal agents to handle web
activities (searching, bargaining, buying,
security)
The next stage of Web technical standards
enables computers to talk to each other, so that
they do routine and repetitive work involved in
everything from homework to shopping. And that
leaves people with more time and energy for doing
the more creative tasks. The Web ...has the
capacity to become a much more intelligent
information infrastructure. Berners
Lee http//interactiveu.berkeley.edu8000/iunews/
discuss/msgReader137
37
Social changes and trends Education Becoming a
part of primary and secondary education This
will spur intense debates about its value More
courses in higher education will move to the
web Campuses will become increasingly
wireless The corporate training market will
explode Work Workers are always available and
online Work roles will be redefined and will
expand This will blur the line between work
and personal lives
38
Business The new economy rediscovers rules of
the old economy The dotcom shakeout
profitability matters! We will find out which
types of business can work on the
web Demographic Coming soon a generation of
digital kids We dinosaurs will soon be scooting
around in wheelchairs with wireless net
access Cultural Internationalism and a
multilingual web Local emphasis with a global
reach
39
Problems and challenges Improving the
accessibility of the web Reducing the digital
divide Protecting the privacy of web
users Providing adequate security for all web
users Developing an equitable legal and
regulatory framework for the web Protecting
digital intellectual property Developing
equitable ways to assert information ownership
40
Future of libraries What does this mean for
libraries and reference work? Expectations will
change Library services should be offered in
synchronous and asynchronous modes with rapid
turnaround There will be much more data
sharing of all types of digital information
Libraries will be expected to deliver
information in a wide range of
formats Librarians will have to be familiar with
a wide range of technologies used to access,
create, manipulate, store, and disseminate
digital information
All libraries will become digital libraries
41
Reference librarians can expect to experience
stasis and change in their work The difficulty
is in figuring out what will change For
convenience, consider the level of Day-to-day
work Administration and bureaucracy
activities Organizational and institutional
structures and processes Professional roles
and responsibilities
42
This will not change Librarians will continue
to ensure that carriers of recorded knowledge
and information of all kinds are acquired,
organized, made accessible, circulated and
preserved
43
Reference work will be done for increasing
numbers of remote users The reference interview
will become more difficult Reference answers
will be delivered in a variety of ways Email,
web, wireless to PDAs and cell phones Reference
work will require that librarians become expert
web searchers Awareness of niche
engines Librarians will develop and manage
curated databases for reference use
All librarians will become digital librarians
44
Librarians will be expected to be arbiters of the
web You will have to develop acceptable
resolutions to the problem of the quality of
digital information One path will be the
moderated collection of links and pages (the
librarys web) Another path will be policies and
procedures for answering questions about
information found by patrons
Image by Animal Logic
45
Librarians will be expected to be expert web
searchers This will require staying current with
ongoing developments in search engines Understandi
ng which engines to use for different types of
searches
Image by Artem Visual Effects
46
Day-to-day work The evaluation and original
cataloging of digital resources What is the
set of criteria that will be used to select
and catalog digital materials? Organizing
electronic information Cataloging creating
links to web sites User demands for customized
information Increasing demand for electronic
access to full-text resources Ergonomic
issues Telecommuting
47
Automation of reference workflow Utilization of
web-based options for acquiring and accessing
digital resources Electronic transmission and
posting of data Invoices, claiming, orders,
adding local and national holdings, integration
of reference information with databases Reliance
on web resources for reference assistance, e.g.,
foreign language dictionaries Maintenance of
reference resources on the librarys web
48
You will need to become masters and mistresses of
the online environment You will find effective
ways of managing online resources One goal
will be to provide permanent and easy access to
these resources Developing stable and reliable
means of preserving digital material will be
essential You will offer service to off-site
clients, and access to materials we do not
physically hold You may become deeply
involved in providing of one- to-one
information services You will be managing large
and complex database driven websites
49
The Web for the Next Millennium
Howard Rosenbaum hrosenba_at_indiana.edu
http//www.slis.indiana.edu/hrosenba/www/Pres/ilfr
ef00/
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