DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT WMO PERSPECTIVE A.F. Glinni and M.V.K. Sivakumar, WMO D.A. Wilhi

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DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT - WMO
PERSPECTIVE A.F. Glinni and M.V.K. Sivakumar,
WMO D.A. Wilhite, University of Nebraska
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Droughts in Europe

• Drought and high temperatures plagued Central and
  Eastern Europe in 2000 from spring to summer.
  Romania suffered most followed by the regions
  comprising the former Yugoslavia, Hungary, and
  Bulgaria. Further north, Poland, the Czech
  Republic and Slovakia were affected.
• Cereal yields resulted far below normal,
  especially the spring and summer crops.

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Droughts in Europe

Monthly precipitation totals and temperature
means in Ljubljana in 2000 compared with
1961-1990 normals (Source DWD, 2000).
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DROUGHT IN EUROPE

Romania - Precipitation in ten representative
sites, 1961-1990 average 2000 actual (mm).
Source USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility
(JAWF)
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DROUGHT IN EUROPE
Bulletin for Drought Duration from
01/08-10/11/2001, Italy. (Source UCEA/MIPAF/ITA
Consortium)
.
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Drought Monitoring in Europe/1

• Institutions related to the UN system
• WMO, by its National Meteorological and
  Hydrological Services of the Regional Association
  VI (Europe and Middle East) and its Working Group
  on Agricultural Meteorology.
• FAO Global Information and Early Warning System
  on Food and Agriculture, report Food Crops and
  Shortages issued 5 times a year.
• UNCCD (United Nation Convention to Combat
  Desertification) monitoring of implementation of
  National Action Programmes (NAPs), land
  degradation and drought
• International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
  (ISDR)
• ReliefWeb, of the United Nations Office for the
  Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

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Drought Monitoring in Europe/2

• Institutions and Agencies within Europe
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
  Forecasts (ECMWF), UK, supported by 22 European
  States.
• European Commission, through specific projects as
  MARS and ARIDE
• Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Germany
• European Climate Support Network (ECSN) program
  of EUMETNET grouping 18 European NMHSs.
• European Regional Working Team on Drought (ERWTD)
  by the International Commission on Irrigation and
  Drainage (ICID).
• Agencies outside Europe providing information
• USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
• US Department of Agriculture Weekly Weather and
  Crop Bulletin
• International Research Institute for Climate
  Prediction (IRI)

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WMO Activities

• The fight against drought and desertification
  receives a high priority in the Long-term Plan of
  the WMO
• Agricultural Meteorology Programme
• Hydrology and Water Resources Programme
• Technical Co-operation Programme
• WMO involves actively the National Meteorological
  and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and the
  regional and sub-regional meteorological centres
  in the
• Improvement of hydrological and meteorological
  networks for systematic observation,
• Exchange and analysis of data.
• Development of long-term strategies to promote
  meteorological and hydrological for monitoring of
  droughts and use of medium- and long-range
  weather forecasts transfer of knowledge and
  technology

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WMO Projects CLIVAR

• Objectives of CLIVAR (Climate Variability and
  Predictability)
• 1. To describe and understand the physical
  processes responsible for climate variability and
  predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal,
  and centennial time-scales, through the
  collection and analysis of observations and the
  development and application of models of the
  coupled climate system.
• 2. To extend the record of climate variability
  over the time-scales of interest through the
  assembly of quality-controlled paleoclimatic and
  instrumental data sets.

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WMO Projects CLIVAR

• Objectives of CLIVAR
• 3. To extend the range and accuracy of
  seasonal to interannual climate prediction
  through the development of global coupled
  predictive models.
• 4. To understand and predict the response of
  the climate system to increases of radiatively
  active gases and aerosols and to compare these
  predictions to the observed climate record in
  order to detect the anthropogenic modification of
  the natural climate signal.

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WMO Projects MED-HYCOS

• Regional component of WHYCOS (World
  Hydrological Cycle Observing System) with 20
  countries of the Mediterranean participating
• Main Objectives water resources assessment,
  capacity building and basin-wide, regional and
  international cooperation for integrated water
  resource management
• Based on a global network on reference stations
  transmitting real time hydrological and climatic
  data

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WMO Projects MED-HYCOS

• Regional database containing data from 94
  stations.

MEDHYCOS Location of DCP stations.
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CURRENT TRENDS IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Need for a
better understanding of droughts

• Drought is a slow-onset, creeping natural hazard
  that is a normal part of climate for virtually
  all regions of the world
• The impacts of drought are largely nonstructural
  and spread over a larger geographical area than
  are damages from other natural hazards.
• Drought risk is a product of a region's exposure
  to the natural hazard and its vulnerability to
  extended periods of water shortage
• It is critical for drought-prone regions to
  better understand their drought climatology and
  establish comprehensive and integrated early
  warning systems that incorporate climate, soil,
  and water supply factors

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CURRENT TRENDS IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Reactive
versus pro-active response to droughts

• The reactive approach has been ineffective
  because response is untimely, poorly coordinated,
  and poorly targeted to drought stricken groups or
  areas. In addition, drought response is
  post-impact and relief tends to reinforce
  existing resource management methods.
• Mitigating the effects of drought requires the
  use of all components of the cycle of disaster
  management, rather than only the crisis
  management portion of this cycle.
• Little attention has been given to preparedness,
  mitigation, and prediction/early warning actions
  (i.e., risk management) that could reduce future
  impacts and lessen the need for government
  intervention in the future.

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Cycle of Disaster Management
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CURRENT TRENDS IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT

• An increased emphasis on drought policy and
  preparedness
• Improved drought monitoring tools and early
  warning systems
• Development of regional drought preparedness
  networks.

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CURRENT TRENDS IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Drought
Policy and Preparedness

• Key components of an effective drought risk
  reduction strategy include the availability of
  timely and reliable information policies and
  institutional arrangements that encourage
  assessment, communication, and application of
  that information appropriate risk management
  measures for decision makers and actions by
  decision makers that are effective and consistent
  (Australia Drought Policy).
• In USA, in 1982, only three states had drought
  plans in place. In 2001, thirty-two states have
  developed plans and four states are at various
  stages of plan development.
• Awareness of the need to improve drought
  preparedness through the development of policies
  and plans has become well accepted by many
  countries. In a growing number of countries,
  considerable progress has occurred.

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CURRENT TRENDS IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Improved
Drought Monitoring Tools and EWS

• Monitoring drought presents some unique
  challenges because of droughts distinctive
  characteristics, as previously mentioned.
• A Drought Monitor was developed for the United
  States which represents a weekly snapshot of
  current drought conditions it is not a forecast.
  The Drought Monitor is a synthesis of several
  different climate indices and parameters.

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U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP
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SUMMARY AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

• Drought must be accepted as a natural hazard
  within the natural hazard community of scientists
  and policy makers.
• Build awareness of drought as a normal part of
  climate. It is often considered to be a rare and
  random event - thus the lack of emphasis on
  preparedness and mitigation.
• Erase misunderstandings about drought and
  society's capacity to mitigate its effects. Many
  people consider drought to be purely a physical
  phenomenon.
• Convince policy and other decision makers that
  investments in mitigation are more cost effective
  than post-impact assistance or relief programs.

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THANK YOU

• WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
• http//www.wmo.ch