The Origins and Transformation of the Electoral College

1
The Origins and Transformation of the Electoral
College
2
Designing The Original Electoral College

• The menu of options for Presidential selection
• Selection by states,
• which would be too much like the Article
  Confederation
• Selection by Congress,
• which was the default option found in both VA
  and NJ plans.
• But many feared it would make the President too
  dependent on Congress.
• How would a bicameral Congress elect a President?
• House only
• Senate only
• Concurrent ballot
• Joint ballot
• Selection by some kind of popular election,
• which presented many practical difficulties.
• Some kind of mixed system, which might
  distinguish between
• a first round of selection (nomination) and
• a second round of selection (election or
  runoff), and/or
• might use intermediate electors.

3
Designing The Original EC (cont.)

• The perceived advantages of an Electoral College
  of intermediate electors
• unlike Congress, the EC would perform a single
  task i.e., cast votes for President -- and
  would then disband, so
• the President would be subservient to neither
  Congress nor the Electoral College and
• unlike popular election, the EC
• avoided difficult questions about the extent of
  suffrage, and
• allowed a range of compromise between the large
  vs. small states through its fine details, and
• and public opinion could be refined through
  representation.
• Since legislative election was the default
  choice, it is more accurate to say the framers
  settled on the EC
• as an alternative to legislative election, rather
  than
• as an alternative to popular election.

4
The Original Electoral College Rules

• Each state selects a number of electors equal
  in number to its total (House Senate)
  representation in Congress (H 2).
• The legislature of each state determines the mode
  of selection of the electors from its state.
• The most likely options were
• selection by the legislature itself,
• popular election from districts, and
• popular election on a state-wide general ticket.
• Congress has the power to determine
• when electors are selected, and
• when electors cast their votes (which must be the
  same day for all states).
• Originally, Congress gave the states a window of
  about 30 days within which to select electors.
• The Electoral College never meets as a group in
  one place.
• Rather electors meet and vote in their own state
  capitals

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The Original Electoral College (cont.)

• Electors were originally required to
• cast two votes for two different candidates,
• at least one of whom had to be a resident of
  another state,
• In effect, electors could vote for one favorite
  son but we required also vote for at least one
  national candidate.
• Once cast, the electoral votes of each state are
  transmitted to Congress,
• to be counted before a joint session presided
  over by the President of the Senate (Vice
  President of U.S.).
• To be elected by the Electoral College, a
  candidate was originally required to receive
• votes from a majority of electors and
• more votes than any other candidate.
• Given the double vote system, these requirements
  were logically distinct.
• In particular, more that one candidate could
  receive the required majority.

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The Original Electoral College (cont.)

• If no candidate meets both requirements, the
  election is thrown into the House of
  Representatives.
• The House chooses
• between the two (or more) tied candidates, in the
  event both (or all) received votes from a
  majority of electors, or
• (in the original EC) among the top five
  candidates, in the event no candidate received
  votes from a majority of electors.
• Voting in the House is by state delegation, with
  each delegation casting one vote.
• Balloting continues until some candidate is
  supported by a majority of state delegations.
• In any event, in the original EC, the runner-up
  Presidential candidate would become Vice
  President (an office that had never been
  previously discussed).
• The framers evidently believed that a second
  prize was necessary to induce electors to take
  their second votes seriously.

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The Original Electoral College An Example

• THE ORIGINAL ELECTORAL COLLEGE BEFORE THE 12th
  AMENDMENT AND USING THE PROVISIONAL APPORTIONMENT
  OF HOUSE SEATS
• House Size 65
• Number of Electors 65 2 13 91
• Number of Electoral Votes 2 91 182
• Maximum Vote Any Candidate Can Receive 91 (one
  vote from every elector)
• Required Majority 46 (one vote from a majority
  of electors)
• If no one gets 46 votes or if there is a tie
  among those who do
• Required Vote in House 7
• In any event, runner-up becomes Vice President
• Note these numbers were never actually used.

8
Expectations Concerning the Original EC

• This original Electoral College system was
  designed to operate in a non-partisan
  environment.
• It therefore was expected that
• typically there would be many potential
  Presidential candidates,
• who would not declare themselves as such, let
  alone actively campaign for the office, and
• electors would choose among these candidates on
  the basis of their character and connections, not
  party affiliation or policy promises.
• Therefore, it was also expected that electoral
  votes would be widely scattered and the House
  contingent procedure would be used 19 times out
  of 20, so
• big states would have the dominant role in
  screening/nominating candidates (in the EC),
  while
• small states would have equal role in most
  final/runoff elections (in the House).

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Expectations Concerning the EC (cont.)

• It was generally hoped and expected that electors
  would typically be
• popularly elected
• from single-member districts (like most state
  legislators, delegates to the state ratifying
  conventions, members of the British House of
  Commons, and as was expected also for members of
  the new U.S. House) and
• that they would be well-informed local notables
  who would act as representative trustees of their
  states and districts.

10
The Hazardous Game President Selection under the
Original Electoral College

• The two-vote and VP-is-runner-up system produced
  problems from the very start.
• In the very first election of 1789, it was
  generally agreed that
• George Washington should be the first President
  and
• John Adams should be the first Vice President.
• Most or all electors were expected to cast one
  vote for Washington and one vote for Adams.
• Alexander Hamilton (who disliked Adams) was
  afraid that some New England electors would
  withhold votes from Washington, thereby making
  Adams president.
• In anticipation of this, he urged some other
  electors to withhold votes from Adams.
• In fact, all electors voted for Washington but
  quite a few did not vote for Adams,
• so in fact the agreed upon ticket was elected.

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• The Election of 1789
• Not literally unanimous
• Double-vote system
• NC and RI had not yet ratified
• NY failed to cast electoral votes
• Scattering of second votes
• Fears that northerners wanted to make Adams
  President

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The Election of 1792

• We see beginnings of the Federalist-Republican
  two-party system in the second (Vice
  Presidential) votes

13
Duvergers Law and the Hazardous Game

• Duvergers Law Given politically ambitious
  candidates, single-winner elections produce (in
  equilibrium) two-candidate contests and sustain a
  two-party system.
• Conversely, parliamentary systems using
  proportional representation in large multi-winner
  districts tend to produce and sustain multi-party
  systems.
• Presidential elections are intrinsically
  single-winner.
• Members of the U.S. House and state legislatures
  were mostly elected from single-member districts,
  also creating single-winner elections.
• The framers expectations did not anticipate the
  development of a national two-party system.
• By 1796, a two-party Federalist vs. Republican
  system had developed,
• with each party running its own PresidentialVice
  Presidential ticket.
• Given such a party system, the combination of the
  double-vote and runner-up-is-VP provisions of the
  original Electoral College proved to be a fatal
  flaw.

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The Hazardous Game1796

• The first contested Presidential election
• Federalists John Adams (MA) Thomas Pickney
  (SC)
• Republicans Thomas Jefferson (VA) Aaron Burr
  (NY)
• They were nominated by their respective
  Congressional Caucuses.
• Note the regionally balanced tickets.
• Intra-Federalist maneuvering
• Hamilton (continuing to feud with Adams)
  unsuccessfully urged some Southern electors to
  vote for Pickney anybody but Adams
• However, some Northern electors learned about
  this and withheld votes from Pickney.
• The electoral vote outcome was very close
• Federalists won 71 electors, all of whom voted
  for Adams, giving Adams the required majority of
  70 for election as President.
• Republicans won 68 electors, all of whom voted
  for Jefferson.
• But the withholding of second votes from Pickney
  lowered his vote total to 59, dropping him to
  third place behind Jefferson,
• So the defeated Republican Presidential candidate
  became Vice President.
• Burr had only 30 votes

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The Election of 1796 (cont.)Electors 138
Electoral votes 276, Required majority 70
16
The Election of 1796 (cont.)

• Sectionalism is evident, despite the sectionally
  balanced tickets.
• Many states did not select electors by popular
  vote.
• Most state electoral votes are cast
  winner-take-all.

17
Lessons from the Hazardous Game

• Electors are expected to be party men,
• i.e., pledged electors.
• However, Samuel Miles (Fed. PA) violated his
  pledge.
• An angry Federalist supporter complained What,
  do I chuse Samuel Miles to determine for me
  whether John Adams or Thomas shall be President?
  No! I chuse him to act, not to think.
• State legislative elections (perhaps coming a
  year or more in advance of Presidential
  elections), become very important for politicians
  with national ambitions, because
• legislatures chose how to select electors and may
  change the method from election to election and
• legislatures may choose to appoint the electors
  themselves.

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Lessons from the Hazardous Game (cont.)

• A party that controls a state legislature may not
  want to risk a popular election for electors.
• States using legislative election increased to 10
  in 1800.
• And if a controlling party is confident it can
  win popular election, the particular mode of
  popular election can be manipulated to short-term
  party advantage.
• Madison to Monroe (1800)
• All agree that an election by districts would be
  best if it could be general, but while ten states
  choose either by their legislatures or by a
  general ticket, it is folly or worse for the
  other six not to follow.

19
The Hazardous Game 1800

• Largely a repeat of 1796
• almost the same tickets (C.C. Pickney replaces T.
  Pickney) and
• Basically the same battle lines, but
• Republicans had taken control of NY legislature,
  while
• The bicameral PA legislature was under divided
  control.
• However, the strategic implications of the EC
  rules were better understood
• manipulation of elector selection and
• danger of withholding too many votes.
• The election of 1800 was as close as 1796 but
  tipped the other way.
• Republicans won 73 electors vs. 65 for
  Federalists.
• The Republicans (unlike the Federalists) failed
  to withhold one Vice Presidential electoral
  vote.
• Jefferson 73 Pickney 64
• Burr 73 Jay 1
• Adams 65

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The Hazardous Game 1800 (cont.)

• But the original EC rules did not distinguish
  between Presidential vs. Vice-Presidential
  electoral votes.
• So the election was thrown into House, under
  the contingent procedure,
• choosing between the tied candidates Jefferson
  and Burr only.
• Burr did not chose to withdraw.
• Four electoral votes from GA had been improperly
  certified, but the intent of the voters was
  clear (four votes for each of Jefferson and
  Burr).
• Had they been disqualified as invalid, no
  candidate would have received the required 70
  electoral votes, in which case
• the House could have chosen any of the five
  candidates as President.
• But Vice President Jefferson, presiding over the
  counting of electoral votes, counted himself
  and Burr in.
• Note that the single Federalist elector who voted
  for Adams and Jay could have voted for Adams and
  Burr,
• in which case Burr would have immediately been
  elected President on the basis of electoral votes
  (with no House election) and
• Jefferson would have remained Vice President.

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The Hazardous Game 1800 (cont.)

• Until 20th Amendment (1933), a newly elected
  Congress did not convene until late in the year
  following Congressional elections.
• So the electoral votes were counted by the lame
  duck Congress, and the 1800 Presidential
  election was thrown into the lame duck House
  elected in 1798, which was still controlled by
  the Federalists (55-50), though Republicans would
  control the House elected in 1800.
• There were 18 state delegations, so 10 votes were
  required for election.
• Each delegation would decide how to vote by
  majority vote within the delegation.
• Republicans controlled 8 state delegations.
• Federalists controlled 6 state delegations.
• Two state delegation were equally split (with
  respect to Jefferson vs. Burr).
• Evidently, virtually all Republican
  representatives supported Jefferson as the
  intended Presidential candidate.
• Likewise, virtually all Federalist
  representatives supported Burr, in order to deny
  the presidency to more formidable Jefferson.
• The two internally tied delegations had to
  abstain.
• For 35 ballots, the House deadlocked Jefferson 8
  and Burr 6 with 2 abstentions.
• Ultimately, the some Federalists within in the
  tied delegations abstained, resulting in
  Jeffersons election on the 36th ballot.

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The 12th Amendment

• After the 1800 fiasco, Congress proposed, and the
  states quickly ratified (in time for 1804
  election), the 12th Amendment to the
  Constitution.
• Electors now cast separate (single) votes for
  President and Vice President.
• The required electoral vote majority for
  President (and for Vice President) is a simple
  majority of votes cast ( number of electors),
  which at most one candidate can achieve.
• If no candidate receives the required simple
  majority for President, the House (still voting
  by state delegations) chooses from among the top
  three vs. top five candidates.
• If no candidate receives the required majority
  for Vice President, the Senate (voting
  individually) chooses from among the top two
  candidates.
• Early drafts of the amendment included a
  requirement that electors be popularly elected
  from districts, but this provision was later
  dropped.
• The 12th Amendment remains the constitutional
  language governing Presidential elections.

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The Transformation of the Electoral College

• By the 1830s, the Electoral College, already
  formally modified by the 12th Amendment, had been
  further transformed into the kind of
  (essentially) automatic popular vote counting
  system that exists today.
• This transformation
• was driven largely by the development of a
  two-party system, and
• was brought about without any further
  constitutional amendments or (with one minor
  exception) change in federal law,
• but rather by changes in state laws and party
  practice.

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Elements of the Transformation (cont.)

• In early elections, the mode of selecting
  Presidential electors was regularly manipulated
  by party politicians in each state, on the basis
  of partisan calculations.
• By 1832, Presidential electors were almost
  universally selected by popular (vs. legislative)
  vote (and by much expanded electorates).
• South Carolina was the lone hold out.
• By 1836, the mode of popular election in every
  state was (following Madisons strategic advice)
  the general ticket (or party slate), rather than
  election from districts (or by some kind of
  proportional representation).
• This induced the almost universal
  winner-take-all rule for the casting electoral
  votes at the state level.
• However, at the present time two small states (ME
  and NE) use the Modified District Plan.

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Mode of Elector Selection
27
Mode of Elector Selection (cont.)

• Why were state legislatures willing to give up
  the power to select Presidential electors?
• The intensity of party competition declined after
  1800.
• Legislative appointment of electors was
  disrupting state legislative elections.
• cf. the willingness of state legislatures to
  ratify the 17th Amendment (popular election of
  U.S. Senators)

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Mode of Elector Selection (cont.)

• Why did election of electors by districts give
  way to election of electors at-large (usually on
  a slate or general ticket)?
• Partisan strategic considerations,
• as expressed by Madison to Monroe in 1800.
• More important state strategic considerations.
• No matter what other states may do, each state
  could enhance its influence in Presidential
  politics by casting electoral votes on a
  winner-take-all basis.
• There is no equilibrium until all states use
  the winner-take-all method.
• It turns out that this equilibrium results in a
  new balance of Electoral College voting power
• that is much more favorable to the large states,
• much more than counterbalancing the small-state
  advantage in apportionment of electoral votes.

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Bypassing the House Runoff

• Given the 12th Amendment and a two-party system,
  it is virtually assured that one or other
  Presidential (and Vice Presidential) candidate
  will receive the required majority of electoral
  votes.
• Thus the Electoral College system was transformed
  into a vote-counting system that is in two ways
  more favorable to large states than the Framers
  expected
• not only do large states gain more power in the
  first (electoral vote) stage (due to
  winner-take-all casting of electoral votes), but
  also
• the second (House contingent election stage)
  stage (where small states have equal power) is
  almost always bypassed.

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Inverse Duvergers Law and the Election of 1824

• The inverse of Duvergers Law implies that
• if one of the parties in a two-party system is
  greatly weakened, or is unable or unwilling to
  compete for votes effectively,
• the dominant party is very likely to break apart,
  because the external threat that otherwise keeps
  it together is removed.
• Consistent with this inverse principle, the
  totally dominant Democratic-Republican Party
  split into factions in the 1824 election,
• with the result that four (serious) candidates
  for President sought and won electoral votes, and
• the 1824 election was thrown into the House.
• So, with respect to the proposition that the
  development of the two-party system,
• the election of 1824 (the second and last time an
  election was thrown into the House) is the
  exception that proved the rule.

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The Election 1824 (cont.)

• The four candidates were
• John Quincy Adams (Secretary of State)
• Henry Clay (U.S. Representative and former
  Speaker)
• William Crawford (Secretary of the Treasury)
• Andrew Jackson (hero of the Battle of New Orleans
  and representative of the common man)
• Presidential election results (first
  round)
• Electoral Votes
  Popular Votes
• Jackson 99 41
• Adams 84 31
• Crawford 41 11
• Clay 37 13
• Others 0
  4
• Bear in mind that six states still appointed
  electors and that states that used popular
  election varied considerably with respect to the
  extent of franchise.

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The Election of 1824 (cont.)

• The compromise candidate Clay (most everyones
  second choice, who probably could have defeated
  each other candidate in a straight fight) was
  squeezed out of third place in the electoral vote
  ranking by Crawford.
• Under the 12th Amendment, the House could chose
  only from among top three candidates.
• Clay probably would have been elected president
• if the House could still chose among the top five
  candidates or
• if Crawford had not been a candidate (i.e.,
  Crawford was a spoiler to Clay).
• Even if Adams or Jackson had won all the
  electoral votes cast for Crawford, Clay would
  have been among top three candidates.
• However, if Jackson had won at least 32 of
  Crawfords electoral votes, Jackson would have
  been elected without a House runoff.

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The Election of 1824 (cont.)

• Clay (a former Speaker) had great influence in
  the House.
• He detested Jackson and endorsed Adams.
• Adams (just) won on the first ballot (24 state
  delegations)
• Adams 13
• Jackson 7
• Crawford 4
• Adams subsequently appointed Clay Secretary of
  State.
• Jackson and his supporters denounced the corrupt
  bargain between Adams and Clay.

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The House Contingent Procedure

• Whenever there is a serious third-party ticket
  (especially one with a geographical base of
  support such that it may win electoral votes),
  the possibility arises that the election may be
  thrown into the House arises.
• Moreover, since the 23rd Amendment (giving the
  District of Columbia three electoral votes) was
  ratified in 1961, the total number of electoral
  votes has been an even number (538),
• so a 269-269 electoral vote tie is possible, and
• an election might be thrown into the House even
  in the absence of a third-party candidate winning
  election votes.
• Prior to the 1825 House election, the House
  adopted special rules for its conduct.
• These rules remain in effect and would
  (presumably) by used in any future House election.

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The EC as a Vote-Counting Mechanism

• In 1845 Congress established a uniform nationwide
  Presidential election day (i.e., day for
  selecting Presidential electors), namely
• the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
• On November 4, 2008, voters in each state will go
  to the polls and vote for either the Democratic
  or Republican (or possibly some other) slate of
  elector candidates, who are pledged to their
  partys (Pres. VP) nominees.
• With popular election of slates of pledged
  electors, American voters may be forgiven for
  thinking they are actually voting directly for a
  Presidential-Vice Presidential ticket.
• Often only fine print on the ballot indicates
  otherwise
• and in some states not even that.

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Vote-Counting Mechanism (cont.)

• In each state, the elector slate receiving the
  most votes is elected (with the possible
  exceptions noted for ME and NE).
• The electors will meet in their state capitals in
  mid-December and cast their electoral votes as
  pledged.
• Electoral vote tallies will be transmitted from
  each state capital to Congress and will be
  counted before a joint session on January 5,
  2009.
• The President of the Senate Vice President
  Cheney will announce the votes for President and
  Vice President and proclaim that ?? and ?? are
  the President-elect and Vice President-elect.
• So (almost certainly) everything will be
  determined on election night in November, and the
  remaining steps are merely ceremonial that is,
  TV prognosticators can
• report the popular vote winner in each state,
• add up the corresponding electoral votes, and
• declare a President-elect.

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