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Development of Car Ownership and Use Model Considering Intrahousehold Interaction

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Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), Hiroshima ... SAKURA Meeting, Japan-France Integrated Action Program, INRETS, July 2, 2004 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Development of Car Ownership and Use Model Considering Intrahousehold Interaction


1
Development of Car Ownership and Use Model
Considering Intra-household Interaction
SAKURA Meeting, Japan-France Integrated Action
Program, INRETS, July 2, 2004
  • Junyi ZHANG, Akimasa FUJIWARA
  • Masashi Kuwano
  • Transportation Engineering Laboratory (TEL)
  • Graduate School for International Development and
    Cooperation (IDEC), Hiroshima University, JAPAN

2
Motivation
  • Household decision making
  • Car ownership in local cities in Japan
  • 30 (23,664,000 / 76,893000)
  • Car ownership in developing countries

3
Environmental Management in Developing Country
21 Century COE (Center of Excellence)
Program
Urban Air Quality Management Group
Capacity evaluation model
Land use and transportation model
Land use indices
Transportation indices
Capacity indices by actor
Emission production
Environmental indices
Institution indices
Carrying-Capacity
Capacity indices by actor
Urban Ecosystem Management Group
Socio-economic Assessment Team
4
Development of Evaluation Framework for Land Use
and Transportation Policies from the
Environmental Perspective
5
Outline
  • Review of existing research
  • Methodological issues
  • Development of discrete choice models with
    inter-agent interaction
  • Summary of survey data
  • Estimation results and discussion
  • Conclusions and future research issues

6
1. Existing research
Discrete choice models examples
7
1. Existing research
Type of household-related research
  • Focus on household, but not individual members
  • Focus on both household and its members


Husband Wife
8
1. Existing research
  • Thorndike, R.L. (1938) On what type of task will
    a group do well? Journal of Abnormal and Social
    Psychology 33, 409413.

9
1. Existing research
Historical evidences 1950s
  • Arrow K.J. (1950) A Difficulty in the Concept of
    Social Welfare
  • Arrow K.J. (1951a) Mathematical Models in the
    Social Sciences
  • Arrow K.J. (1951b) Social Choice and Individual
    Values
  • Festinger L. (1954) A Theory of Social Comparison
    Processes
  • Harsanyi J.C. (1955) Cardinal Welfare,
    Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal
    Comparisons of Utility
  • Lorge I. and Solomon H. (1955) Two Models of
    Group Behavior in the Solution of Eureka-type
    Problems
  • Luce R.D. and Raiffa H. (1957) Games and
    Decisions
  • Nash J.F. (1950) The Bargaining Problem
  • Nash J.F. (1953) Two-person Cooperative Games
  • Samuelson P.A. (1956) Social Indifference Curves
  • Siegel S. (1957) Level of Aspiration and Group
    Decision Making
  • Simon H.A. (1955) A Behavioral Model of Rational
    Choice

10
1. Existing research
Historical evidences 1960s1970s
  • Shopping behavior
  • ? Wives did most of grocery shopping, with
    an awareness of
  • products and brands that their families
    liked. Husbands and
  • teenagers were frequently involved in
    new or different brands.
  • ? The growing importance of men as buyers
  • Tourism
  • ? Husband mention initial idea to take a
    trip, suggest a
  • destination, and
    select an airline
  • Mutual decision decision on where to
    go

11
1. Existing research
Historical evidences 1960s1970s
  • Housing and automobile
  • (1) Buying home husband (price range,
    whether to move)
  • wife (no. of
    bedrooms and other house features)
  • (2) Automobile for the make husbands
    dominant households (60)
  • for the color
    husband dominant households (25)
  • husband gt wife
  • ? The growing involvement of women in family
    decisions

12
1. Existing research
Applications of household decision-making
mechanisms
  • In marketing research, studies of husband-wife
    influence have been justified to
  • (1) select the proper respondent in consumer
    research surveys,
  • (2) determine the content of advertising
    messages,
  • (3) select advertising media,
  • (4) guide product designers to include
    features that appeal to
  • those who are most influential in the
    purchase decision, and
  • (5) assist in the location of retail outlets

13
1. Existing research
Household Decision rules and heterogeneity
By Davis H.L. (1976 )
14
1. Existing research
Household decision-making Decision rules
Kirchler E. (1988) Household Economic Decision
Making, in Handbook of Economic Psychology, van
Raaij W.F., van Veldhoven G.M. and Warneryd K.E.
(eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers.
A household will seek to minimize social and
economic costs in decision situations by trying
to make an optimal choice after passing through a
commonly satisfying interaction process.
15
1. Existing research
Household decision-making Life cycle
16
1. Existing research (transportation)
Szalai (1972) The use of time Daily activities
of urban and suburban
populations in twelve countries. The Hague
Mouton. 1) Large sample size 30,000 time
budgets drawn from 12 nations 2) 96 activities
3) 24-hour diary (types of activities (both
primary and secondary activities), time,
place and duration) ? shows the relevance to
household decision-making.
17
1. Existing research (transportation)
  • Household members interact in making decisions
    about the different activities that they perform
    and the related allocation of time.
  • Joint activity participation
  • Household resource allocation
  • Task allocation
  • Role specification

18
Intra-household (temporal and spatial)
interaction and inter-dependency among activities
In-home activity
time
Shared activity
Independent activity
Travel
Wife
Husband
business
Allocated activity
office
supermarket
home
restaurant
19
1. Existing research (transportation)
1. Modeling approaches (1) LISREL model (2)
RUM (Nested-type logit model) (3) Mathematical
programming model (4) Rule-based approach (5)
Group decision-making theory
2. Survey methods (1) Stated preference (2)
Interactive agency choice experiments
Game theory
20
1. Existing research (transportation)
 
  • Wind (1976), Rogers (1976)
  • The view of consumers as individual
    decision makers is still very much alive despite
    commonsense observations that the family is the
    relevant decision-making unit and a growing
    research interest in the field of marketing
    research.

Current situation in the field of transportation
Most of the existing models typically assume an
individual decision-making process.
21
2. Methodological issues
Principle of random group utility maximization A
concept of meta-utility
Gumbel distribution
h group (e.g., a household) i group
member j alternative
22
2. Methodological issues
Choice models based on meta-utility
(1) Mother logit model (McFadden, et al, 1977)
(2) Dynamic GEV model (Swait, et al, 2004)
(3) r_MNL model (Zhang et al, 2004)
23
2. Methodological issues
Measurement of relative influence of household
members
  • Scale measure 3, 5, 10-point scale
  • Husband decided Jointly decided Wife
    decided
  • ? ------------------------------------------
    ------------------- ?
  • Interaction-based measure Power
  • SP survey
  • Game theory
  • Endogenous estimation based on the attributes of
    decision makers

24
2. Methodological issues
 
Who makes the decisions?
25
2. Methodological issues
Group utility functions
Multi-linear type
Iso-elastic type
26
2. Methodological issues
Multi-linear type of group utility functions
can be used to reflect household members concern
for achieving equality of utilities
27
2. Methodological issues
Special cases ofmulti-linear household utility
functions
(1) Additive-type utility function (2)
Compromise-type utility function (3)
Capitulation-type utility function
28
2. Methodological issues
Iso-elastic type of group utility functions
29
2. Methodological issues
Comparisons of multi-linear and iso-elastic group
utility functions
Similarity and dissimilarity
Multi-linear type
Iso-elastic type
30
3. Development of discrete Choice Model with
inter-agency interaction
G_MNL model
lt Iso-elastic Group Utility Function gt
31
3. Development of discrete Choice Model with
inter-agency interaction
G_MNL model
lt Multi-linear Group Utility Function gt
32
3. Development of discrete Choice Model with
inter-agency interaction
G_NL model
33
Analysis framework of household car ownership and
use
Social network
Household
The first car
Buy?
G_MNL
Future expectation
Buy what car?
The second car
New or used car
Buy?
Use
Buy what car?
Use
Scrap
Renewal
Scrap
Renewal
34
4. Summary of survey data
Survey Area
Hiroshima Region
35
4. Summary of survey data
Survey Area
36
4. Summary of survey data
Survey Results
Car use frequency
Modal share
37
4. Summary of survey data
Survey Results
38
5. Estimation results and discussions
G_MNL model
39
5. Estimation results and discussions
G_MNL model
Head of Household
Other member
The first car
main user
wife
gender
gender
lt1500cc
v11
v21
age -
age -
job -
job -
license
license
car price income
gt 1500cc

w11

1-w11

Inter-dependency ?
Heterogeneity
40
5. Estimation results and discussions
G_ NL model
41
5. Estimation results and discussions
G_NL model
Head of Household
Other member
The first car
main user
child
gender
gender
age
age
lt1500cc
v11
v21
job
job
license
license
income -
income -
gt 1500cc
car price
w11

1-w11

Inclusive value (0,1)
Inter-dependency -
The second car
main user
child
gender
gender
age
age
lt1500cc
V12
v22
job
job
license
license
income -
income -
gt 1500cc
car price
w12

1-w12

McFaddens Rho-squared0.4457
Inter-dependency -
Sample size 114
42
Conclusions andFuture Research Issues
  • Development of a new class of discrete choice
    models with inter-agency interaction (G_MNL, G_NL
    models)
  • Multi-linear group utility
  • Iso-elastic group utility
  • Estimation of other types of G_models
  • Comprehensive model system for household car
    ownership and use incorporating the influence of
    group decision-making mechanisms
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